❤️ Solving The Money Problem , 👋 Sure is a great presentation! Good to see you here, Steven. ...I’ve been wanting to ask... if at some point, you would possibly be interested to cover some of Clayton Christensen’s theories about disruption, on your channel. I suspect you’re familiar with Professor Clayton Christensen’s work. One of his insights has to do with the competitive dynamics that happen under disruption. I thought that you could make an awesome video that covers this specific competitive dynamic or perhaps you could talk broadly about the theories that were put forth by the Harvard Business School professor: 🔥 Disruptive Innovation 📺 ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-rpkoCZ4vBSI.html (1 hour video) ⬆️ Standing at 6’8”, Clayton Christensen was the gentle giant of disruption. (Sadly, he died January 23, 2020) ...One of his great insights explains why it is the case that the incumbent managers (like the ones at the established automakers) act and execute on rational basis (with profits in mind) - yet, even with all the advantages - incumbents still fail to keep the disruptors at bay. Steven, thank you so much for your extremely valuable time. I look forward to seeing you again, in your next video.
Steven - Is that reaction video coming soon? More people need to understand the significance of this tech convergence. People are totally in denial that what Tony says could happen. Maybe start out by saying what if Tony is right? Could he be right?
Mr. Seba have been saying the same thing for the past 6 years(with minor tweaks). With each passing year, it materializes more and more, and seeing it happen over time is awesome.
Imagine, the last mile power transmission cost savings with no transmission lines for millions of miles. Saves cost and lots of land too. Great work. Kudos
Glad that you are OK during this pandemic Tony, I’ve been telling Gasoline Car owners to trade in their Vehicles now while they are worth something. I keep telling them that if the Gas Stations go under then their vehicles become worthless. So, I keep telling them to trade in their vehicles now and buy an EV! From the last time we spoke I have put together an 8 page PDF that teaches people about EVs. You can download it from EVPDF dot com. Thanks!
That's pretty funny! You're telling Gasoline Vehicle owners to trade in their cars now?, HAHA - What about Diesel? - It's kinda true I think, if Gasoline cannot be found then Gas cars will be worthless! HAHA that would be so much fun! Me & My wife both have Tesla's :)
mikee368 I’m from the United States and here we call Gasoline or Petrol, Gas. Which confuses people from other nations. Other nations call natural gas just Gas. But, that not how it is in the USA. Gasoline/Petrol is called Gas and that’s why I call it Gasoline. If I am explicitly speaking to UK people I’ll call it Petrol. If I am talking to people from Italy I will call it #Benzina
@@NAY2GAS hahaha. Thx now I am ever more confused and better understanding at the same time! XD Always thought petrol was US aswell amd gasoline was diesel. And gas was the summation of liquid fuels haha. Yhea here we call gasoline benzine, diesel is well, diesel xD and gas is LPG, liquified petroleum gas iirc.
Lots to ponder. It reminds me of the quote from Rudiger Dornbusch - “In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.”
@@timcountis9368 Within two to three years an Electric car will have reached price parity with an ICE car but are much cheaper to run. Within five years they will be both cheaper to buy and much cheaper to run. Oil companies have nowhere to go except into liquidation.
@@timcountis9368 Doesn't matter what Trump does if it's cheaper to build solar, if it's cheaper to go electric. It's like giving money to horse buggy builders in 1919 and allow them to not clean the road from horse manure. It wouldn't have stopped the success of the superior tech. At best slowing it down on a short term time scale.
@@timcountis9368 They can't hold back efficient vehicles that are cheaper to make, sell, operate and maintain. And ticket price parity is literally a couple of years away. Not from legacy companies, of course. They'll hold the price up of their EVs for as long as they can, so that they can keep selling their FFVs. Indeed, until they go bankrupt.
Coal is finished, unless no new mass uses are invented. Oil is in the slow down phase in developed places, but we see a little bit of an uptick in the developing nations. It will be a bumpy ride to the end for the oil industry. A bad industry to be on. Better bet on all things electrical !
yup weve already passed peak oil and coal . theyre on a reverse s curve. It looks like theyre falling slowly now but they will start to completely collapse with the next few years .
OK, make steel without coal. Happy trying. Our entire civilization, not just energy, also materials, food, clothing, everything is hydrocarbon based. And electrical? Faulty, ages badly, and low energy density.
@tzar 1917 Did you come to that conclusion because I left a link to the PDF he mentioned? You immediately went there instead of assuming I was just being a helpful netizien. That says more about you than me.
@tzar 1917 Dear Idiot, I am a grown ass male living in the mid-west. Did you even check my account page? Because this account was created on Mar 2, 2011. Did your evil conspirators also give me a time machine?
@@MarkGast I've been accused many times of using a false name and even be a computer generating comments. The reality is there are many paid for trolls out there but pretty much all anti-green ones.
50:40 Dubai 2109, you mean 2019 ;). Amazing numbers, all of them! I'm simply waiting for the future to happen, not sure if that's a positive or negative thing haha.
The ultra high mileage EVs will spawn a whole new industry to improve and upgrade the exterior, interior and running gear of existing cars. The body shells, motors and batteries will continue but everything else can be reconditioned to like new. They will cost a fraction of brand new. It all depends on batteries at a low enough cost and of course the factories to make them in large enough numbers. Amazon announced it's vans from Rivian at least 12 months ago. We will know by 2022 if the vans ever happen. The question is why does it take so long to make some tin boxes on wheels.
Negative oil prices are just a blip. People shouldn't get too excited. The price is 20$ a barrel for WTI 1st May 2020. My guess is we won't see negative oil prices again, ever. So be sure to add a "This didn't age well comment" if/when I'm wrong. That way I can find my way back to the video :-)
Disruption is certain. At any question, we should ask who benefits from it? Our industrial civilisation is based on ownership and material production. This has come to an end. In the course of analysis we are stuck with economic considerations, and always forget the people, us, who are behind dollars, euros, ... If you can realise the inevitability of disruption, why can't you see the inevitability of social disruption. people cannot withstand this level of inequality. When things get really bad, we will see the totality of the war humanity has waged over itself. yes we need disruptive changes, these include our current model of neoliberal economics. What then? our best minds have been working to make money for the few, lets put them to work to make happiness for the many.
Tony Seba has been astounding in his predictions about costs and adoption rates of solar power, batteries and EVs. It would be great to see some more details though of why Tony expects robotaxis and TAAS to start taking over in 2020 when there isn't a vehicle in the world yet that can safely drive autonomously except in extremely controlled conditions? Even if semi-reliable Level 3-4 autonomy existed today, won't it take a few years to prove it's safe and get regulatory approval to use it?
Hello Tony, Lovey videos and projection. Very insightful. I am working on Hydrogen Fuel cell related power electronics. I have had solar since 2012. Would also use battery back up but cost is too high.You must agree no one can predict impact of Trump, Iran, Covid-19, Oil-price drop/hike? You have said people now UBER because it is cheaper than normal taxis. But because they are cheaper people use them more and use buses/trains less leading to more road congestion. Same applies to self driving cars they have to go and park somewhere when not in use or being cleaned. And again increased road congestion because they will be cheaper than buses/trains compounding the problem? EV Trucks/Semis' will kill rail freight? EVs are safer but autonomous ones need to be clean and lot of people will abuse them. People still need lots and lots of cars during peak hours hence the cars need to be parked during off peak hours and hence car parks still needed? Agreed that peak hours in future will change compared to today. Subscription model, I see a problem as in we become beholden to the pricing hikes i.e. Tesla forces you to buy an up-grade of software and could disable functions till you buy an upgrade or void your insurance by saying it is unsafe? Fewer cars in future but same or more journeys have peak hour premium so may cost same as owning ICE car? If more lives are saved more cost for NHS in UK and more jobs are needed? Don't agree with you about parking as UBERS & Weymo will need to park when not in use? Regards
You know... I just heard you say in reference to what others say... not to worry, it'll take 20 years before it becomes adopted. That sounded exactly like "It'll take 20 years for the mainstream to adopt it." Which if you think about billionaire investors, some invest way early. "Don't worry, it won't reach proper valuation for 20 years." But if you were to invest into them while they are being verbally denounced... You might actually pull some 100x returns by the time they institutions finally declare their support for the company. The impact this type of transition can have is always way beyond expectations. That said, you find a company that hits all the proper criteria, it's easy to believe that the most bullish price outlook is still, undervalued.
As electric semis come to market, hoping Biden administration will give preference to, if not require, those over diesels, e.g. USPS hauling contracts.
I mow my yard with an electric self propelled push mower, electric weed eater, and electric blower, interchangeable batteries. Very quiet. I can mow early in morning or late in evening with disturbing neighbors. I don't have to purchase fuel, oil, tune ups, air filters. Just change or sharpen blades. I get a 2-3 mile walk with steps each time I mow.
58:25 Thank you for this video and especially for this comment! I live in Australia with a government that passes a hunk of coal around parliament while going oooh and aaah over it. This is the current prime minister of Australia : www.theguardian.com/global/video/2017/feb/09/scott-morrison-brings-a-chunk-of-coal-into-parliament-video Listen to him crap on about "an energy competitive advantage" Grid transmission costs 12 AUD cents per KWH or 8 USD cents. States are charging 23, 24, 27, 37 AUD cents per KWH or 16 to 18 to 24 USD cents per KWH for residential electricity. Also, Australia is a major gas producer with a domestic gas shortage.
I agree with your comments but look at the upside. It is actually pushing us towards renewables faster than ever. We take matters into our hands. We are one of the fastest adopters of renewable technology. Economics have driven this. The ridiculously high prices we pay for coal fired electricity have made us look for cheaper alternatives like solar. It could almost be looked at in the same light as taxing cigarettes. How much does a packet of cigarettes actually cost to make? Most of the cost is actually tax but the end result regardless of the motive is that fewer people per capita smoke in Australia than anytime in the past century. Is this not a good thing in the end. Governments can’t combat climate change only people can. Until we all start acting responsibly the problems we are facing will not go away. People don’t like listening to governments these days so the only way to get change is to educate the people so they can they can make the right choices.
Tony, is it logical for us to get an electric car at USD20k by 2025? i know the battery cost can fall by 15%, but not the body, not labor costs, not capital costs, not tires, which makes 2/3rd of the cost of car
The costs you list are the same for any car, ICE or EV. The difference is only in the drivetrain, and that an EV carries it's energy store (battery). Very recent and exhaustive analysis had (again) confirmed that TCO for an EV is as low as 30 that for ICE. No contest.
Look at what happens in China. Today: facebook.com/cleanthinking/posts/10158243241302179?__xts__%5B0%5D=68.ARC_YKEsza1c0GNqdm6nPClwbd7i7K41CVRdK6CEDMQWWgbfCwDRYD6v8lI2NlCUF2dvIlo3UMEDEWmo0ZqSqzdu5BzjtC6QE7XNhY4CXmG9_3j7qOU5ZwB8XuxcpUdFtBauRMoktzaeSeA8BBdlVHOa3CMq6dKvChtZ1b1UBRR3Fc8zZPysKtYAZ7Ppqfo6esmTDciM2R1CBGoKNBh2WO7qjqsUO4Tsar-kF9D2PfTNOe_b34y9s53RuHUcOfYkIRWcUGdQfbTSG36HdOVFkNC64_rdfVqd3Gw-dSX2f5oJJqfdlC0ccxPRBnE8fHei-IXfKNbeU7mh2jkXUpOb&__tn__=-R
This year in Europe and China I am pretty sure there is a small SUV from a Chinese maker below $20,000. The mini EV is $29000 and still gets the $7500 tax incentive so that gets close. With an EV the battery is 2/3rds the cost of the car. Let's put it this way: at every price point that Tesla has a car, they are making cars at way cheaper cost than their competitors. So at $35,000 the tesla makes good margins while competing cars at the same price need repairs and parts to make a profit. So there is obviously a lot of room to make EVs cheaper than ICE cars apart from the cost of the battery pack since that is a big chunk of the Tesla car's cost and they can still get better margins than combustion vehicles can...
It's very easy to make future predictions sound good when you exclusively talk about benefits without even exploring the potential negative impacts. He talked about nearly all vehicles being autonomous fleet vehicles. There is one obvious immediate huge potential issue with that.. What are you going to do with the 2.3 million people currently employed in the USA in driving jobs. The potential negative societal implications of removal of employment and thus purpose of huge swaths of the population is clearly apparent and must be carefully considered... He doesn't even make a single mention of it.
I have heard that powering your house with your car should be avoided due to degrading the battery with each use. Maybe its useful in an emergency. Utility control of when during the night a car is charged can allow demand control without harming the battery. Better car batteries might expand the utility of using the car battery for non-transportation power needs.
A very large battery made for a home is only 20% of a car battery in capacity. So you are not accruing many charge cycles when using it for your home. So like one charge cycle if you had to use the battery for 5 days straight... To use it as a way to balance the grid you would only be using a tiny amount and charging a tiny amount so maybe it adds up to one charge cycle per month or something like that? Also, EV batteries are lasting way longer than people thought. Even the oldest technology version of Nissan Leaf batteries are in high demand on the secondary markets. A Tesla battery will probably never see less than 80% of original charge capacity... Most of the tests on different EV batteries show rapid degradation for the first few % and then it tapers of to basically zero degradation around 80-90% depending on how perfectly your battery cells were made.
Tonys point is the acceleration of technology. Don't look in the past. Tesla's new batteries will not degrade much over time - able to go 1 million miles. Then they can be taken out the vehicle and used for storing grid power.
I’m a big fan of Seba and his analysis on TAAS adoption and disruption, but he is missing some inputs regarding human behavioral economics. Humans do not make decisions based on price rather they use emotions. A car is an emotional decision which is why we have some many varieties and price levels.
TaaS is the only part of your thesis that I disagree with. I think we will go electric and autonomous, but those will be privately owned and operated vehicles for personal transportation.
The only thing I don’t get, most people work 9-5 and drive to work in rush hr and home in rush hr, so most of the cars sat up doing nothing are in between those hours & at night when people are asleep. Unless people start car pooling which they could (and don’t often) do now, you’re still going to need a massive amount of autonomous vehicles taking 1 or 2 people to and from work in peak time and that there’s isn’t enough demand to satisfy during the day/off peak hours when most people are at work. Those many autonomous cars will be competing for less commuters/travellers during off peak times. I also really enjoy driving and don’t want to be a passenger so maybe I’ll keep buying enjoyable to drive petrol cars like some people still buy/own horses 🤷🏻♂️
@@markplott4820 I don't get that either, surely you're gonna have a queue either end of the tunnel to get in and out of it. Its not like there's going to be a tunnel replacing every road or route
Let’s see some YES’s and No’s : will you daily want to get into someone else’s robotaxi car when it shows up, full of cameras and disinfectant, but still not cleaned of soil or scratches or rain and chewing gum from the day? I’d say for the entire country the answer is 2% What % of people use public transport, that’s about what % will pay more than a bus for a robotaxi.
Oh wow, I was just rewatching one of your talks yesterday bcuz the oil price drops to negative and was wondering what your thoughts about it. This video couldn’t have been more on the right timing
"it's gonna happen despite governments, not because of governments, for purely economic reasons". This night hurt Trump a lot, he lost the coal battle and now pumps 500B dollar into oil, yes you read that right, not million, but Billion! That's more money then the entire world combined has ever pumped in reneweble energy in any year in history.
As a transportation engineer for 50 years this is the best analysis I have seen. It is easy for people to dismiss the conclusions. But hard/impossible for people to disprove. Is there any other company that is prepared to implement this disruption as quickly and completely as Tesla? I don’t think so.
I disagee, as soon as the market shifts, I believe the big automakers are prepared and will act to quickly deploy their EV force that has been developed over thirty years. At this time, automakers are being required to deploy fuel burning engines to support the oil industry political force rather that the clean quiet products the market desires. This shut down proves how clean and quiet our neighborhoods can be! Go Tesla, their benchmark is totally stretching our vision!
I agree with the sentiment that the other big automakers will try to overtake Tesla. I do however believe that the impending change in the value chain to where Uber and others will be at the top means that each auto manufacturer will need to create their own version of Uber or partner with an Uber. The number of new cars will go down but the total $/mile spent will go up. Whoever is not prepared for this will be a goner.
MARILYNANDERSON88 Mmmmm. If you believe that the big auto makers are prepared to quickly deploy their EVs, I suggest you do more research into battery availability and software needed to perform the thermal management needed for long range, quick charging and long battery life. The big automakers have barely scratched the surface. VW CEO has admitted this in interviews and hopes to someday catch up with Tesla. The other big automakers are in a worse position.
And what about the previous week? Or this week now? Cherry picking weeks where there was unusual high wind or solar doesn't convince any intelligent person that we should be focusing on renewables instead of nuclear.
@@hrthrhs The UK has not generated any power from coal-fired utilities for nearly 3 weeks. (Irrespective of why). In 2010, the UK was generating around 52% of power from coal. By mid 2019 this had dropped to 3%. Currently, it's now around 1.5%. Hinckley Point 2 (currently under construction) was estimated to cost £9bn when first mooted over a decade ago. When the project hit £22bn in October last year, the contractors pleaded to have another £2bn added to that. This crassly stupid project is unlikely to be ready for another five years, and will probably cost the British taxpayer north of £30bn - and it has yet to put a single electron into the grid. Nuclear has had its day. Solar and wind (plus battery storage) are already vastly cheaper (and increasingly so). My company is a supplier to Siemens and we supply certain items for their wind turbines. Right now, plans are underway to construct 12 new off-shore farms that (when built) will generate more power than Hinckley Point 2, and at around TEN PERCENT of the cost. For an idea on how battery storage complements the grid, and efficiency, look up the Hornsdale Project in South Australia - and watch Tony Seba's talk celebrating 2020 Earth Day again. Then... by all means come back and amuse us with your ignorance.
It’s been a year since I bought any fossil fuels, switching to an EV sandpit some solar on the roof..better life,, cheaper, not wasting it on polluting fuel any more. Another great presentation from Tony Seba.
I agree, but oil is used for more than transportation. When you say “dead” if you mean it becomes “just another commodity” I agree with you. The oil market may become 70% of today size by 2028 or 2030. Then drop to 30% (or even 20%) rapidly after that. It will take 5-7 years after EV get cheaper than ICE car to push ICE car off the map. It will happen very fast, but not overnight. Petrochemical has alternative if power is cheaper, and now we can make plastic with natural gas...oil will become less and less useful over time, but not overnight
@@simoc24 You have a good understanding of commodities more so that I would...I just see the future and oil is not it long term 30 years plus...will. be less than 1% of use for energy.
Mark Plott you are absolutely correct :) nevertheless mining the oil is cheaper than many synthetic oil products. Once production cost is lower it can compete better. It is hard to compete with oil when oil is getting cheaper and cheaper. Oil will be a commodity for decades to come, just get smaller and smaller as an industry. I can totally be wrong of course
I didn't see wind power mentioned. It is also growing exponentially and costs lowering like solar as tech improves and size increases. It can also run at night.
Hello Tony Ive watch your talk 4 times online so eye opening. The FORD MOTOR CO. Picture is an interesting one, just when FORD posted a Q1 Net Income loss of $(2.0)b and forcasting a Q2 EBIT LOSS of >$(5.0) and axing their transition to EV plans in half.
At 26:34 "200-mile EV..home for ~2 days" "EVs could store 71% of Canada's electricity demand". I need a 760-mile EV to heat my home for ~2 average days for November 1st-April 15th stud, I need a 1,140-mile EV to heat my home for ~2 average days for January. Have you ever visited Canada ?
when are you going to bring out a video on Food and Agriculture disruptions? Waiting for it. Hope you put some of the major companies names too who pioneers this.
Thank you so much for this video. Please place a pillow under your arms when producing your videos. Your arms repeatedly hitting the table is a huge audio distraction on an otherwise marvelous presentation.
After Vietnam, built total electric home. Retired 75, Feb 2009 installed 12k grid tie solar on property. Ordered second Tesla Tri-motor Cybertruck. No electric Bill, last 11 years, Charge RWD FSD Model 3 on generation alone.
Tesla is already 6 years ahead of any other manufacturer. Porsche spent a fortune on their new EV but the Tesla Model S (from 2012) is still ahead in every respect and cost 1/2 the price. Tesla is also ahead on autonomous driving. They have 3 billion miles of driving data against a few million miles between all of the others. Tesla has done it with cameras and one radar (that checks for sudden braking in traffic lines). They dont need Lidar and they dont need the complex high detail maps that the others are still faffing about with.
Thank you so much for all the valuable information you are giving us. I’m 18 and 1/3 of my net worth is Tesla stock. I feel like by 2030 I’ll be glad of the investment decisions I made this year.
Roger Starkey I also own other stocks. Tesla is 60% of my portfolio. I’m using cash to buy one more share before ER and if it drops after ER I’ll sell other stocks to buy more Tesla
Read the RethinkX report about the food disruption. There may be some food companies that end up like Tesla. Perhaps Beyond Meat is one of those companies.
Greatly appreciate your work! How about the northern countries, how are they going to produce enough energy, especially during winters, when they don't have enough sun? Are they going to stock up in the summer?
Another question i have Tony, is that module costs for solar is so cheap now, at less than 30 cents per watt. However, the final consumer actually have to buy solar at USD3.00 per watt, due to soft costs and whatever crazy taxes that governments are taking. If only 30 cents out of USD3.00 per watt is falling at 14% , costs wont fall soo fast. is it really possible for cost per kwh to fall fast for solar?
Biggest costs is installation, lot of shady people getting in to solar right now and charging exorbitant amounts for installation while they have like 2 electricians on the payroll for a company w/ 100 installers.
The idea will be to control the technology if you could control the means, I am not sure this will happen with solar though because it is getting so so cheap. Think cellphone bills over the years or texting. Now basically free, sadly it will not help the poor and those who rent. Landlords have no incentive to provide cheap power or energy efficiency.
This is a huge issue but as developers integrate solar panels into roofing tiles the price will drop. It is going to be a competitive market and eventually the serious businesses will enter the market place and muscle all of the jabroni companies out.
I read "clean disruption" a few years ago. It opened my eyes and helped me to understand this world a bit better. Thank you so much for sharing your insights!
19:29- National average energy cost is $0.12 or 12 cents per kwh! That's great for most people! In Southern California, the baseline rate for Orange County is about 23 cents/kwh, and if you go over that modest allowance, it jumps to 30 cents/kwh. They charge less after 8pm, so I schedule charging my Model X after 8 pm.
"EVOLET" The Future Is Electric.!!! "Nothing can stop an idea whose time has come". Responsibility is huge on OEMs. The way fwd for OEMs is multiple partnerships to localise, seeking to ensure that EVs become mainstream & affordable. Rissala welcomes the idea of working with partners on electric vehicle technology. Rissala strongly believes that OEMs need to come together to pool recourses & create a much better eco system for EVs in India. Its sensible to collaborate & co-create solutions to realise the eco dream. We need to be the game changers now that we are leading this fantastic change. Its effects are going to be un-imanagable for the country, its people & the world with every seventh human being on this planet being an Indian. Advantages to the country from the perspective of energy security & competitive advantage too, electric mobility will reduce oil import costs, lower trade deficits, & limit vulnerability to oil supply disruptions & process shocks, finally electric mobility will deliver a host of environment benefits , including cleaner air & savings of over 87 billion Usd/Yr. or 30,000 Crore per day from imports. OEMs have to work closely with specialised technology companies & power train technologies need to come from tech providers. Its a win - win for all. From ten Lacs (one million) barrels of oil use daily presently, your decision to shift to Electric mobility, its guaranteed to reduce to one Lac (100,000) barrels daily by 2025 & further to 10,000 barrels by 2030. Earth's healing has started. Mother Earth is Smiling!!! Thanks to the human spirit!!! Thanks to Indians shifting to Electric mobility. Three Cheers!!!! "It is not the strongest that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change." We have to be thankful to gods for being in these times & situation where such huge changes are warranted & in our hands as OEMs & with the government's extraordinary positive push in terms of policies, subsidies & support in all ways possible. "Evolet" = Happy, Sustainable, Affordable, Green mobility for each & everyone. Just like our ageless companion - The Horse. www.evoletindia.com
Dude? Where have you been all my life?! I've been preparing for these changes since 2014. I scour the internet looking for emerging technology news. Here you have been all this time doing the work for me. Um, yeah I subscribed.
The presentation is great and the predictions will probably come true, but looking at vehicle numbers 2020-24 and global oil demand 2020-24 the predictions were rather off. 2023 global oil demand was fully recovered from the 2020 slump to 102 Mbpd not 90 (43:58), and trending upwards. US passenger vehicles were steady at 288 million and not 240 million (41:47). It may be a few more years still..
Car ownership took off extremely fast because it was far easier and far cheaper to own a car than a horse. Oil quickly overtook coal again because its easier to use and at the start was a lot cheaper. Mobile phones went to smart phones almost overnight because the costs to consumers were so low. Why have a Nokia boring brick when you can have this wonderful iPhone. Tesla cars are iPhones while ICE cars are the Nokia bricks, but £50,000 for a car even if its overall cheaper is a huge sum to find so the change will happen more slowly. We also have only one company that is serious enough to build a business and eco system to build and operate them.
WOW what a sparkling festival week with family, pets & all the wishes & blessings of friends......... Beautiful Times!!! Ever GRATEFUL & THANKFUL to Hanuman & all Gods. Indebted for life for all the blessings!!!! Let's all share & care & work towards healing mother earth!!! *"Every time you spend money, you're casting a vote to the kind of world you want"* THINK-SPEND-CARE-MATTER. These words really got me...... It's easy to think that your small everyday choices like what you buy don't matter. But they do. Let's think about leather as an example. You might think that it doesn't matter that you bought your new leather boots, since you can't save that animal who's skin is already taken. Think again. Every time you are buying leather products, you are sending a message to the companies to keep producing them. So yes, your actions do matter a lot. Shift to Electric mobility!!! www.evoletindia.com.
33:14 TFlops is Billion Floating point operations per second. TOps is Billon operations per second, it is two different things. It takes several operations to perform one floating point operation.
Mr. Seba, Have you considered speaking with Joe Rogan, on his podcast? This would be a great platform that would give millions exposure to your idea and give you the time to clearly talk through all the main points.
WHAT A BEAUTIFUL COMPETETION !!!! : They invest 2400 Crores, start building now and are ready to sell by next year end. Rissala Electric Motors - under brand "Evolet" has been manufracturing/ assemblying and selling thri their authorised dealers eight different models of electric vehicles across India. Have already done the same 2 yrs back what OLA attempts now. We welcome them!!!. More the merrier. Goes to prove that finally world sees the potential of the Indian markets. 🙏🏼🙏🏼🐎🐎. Our top of line German factory also makes all kinds of electric scooters)motorcycles, Autos, loaders & all terrain vehicles too. So will the world's largest OLA EV factory,...... Our german top line plant costed 150-200 cr and by spending another 25 cr our capacity also matches 20 lac scooters. Now we produce 5 lac scooters motorcycles from the plant. ?????????? 2400 Crores vs 200 Crores ??????????. Interesting and exciting days ahead. They need to also match our prices & quality. They plan to sell the Scooters at one lac plus against our price of 50-75,000 Rs. To just fulfill the demand of India. For next 2-3 yrs itself. 20 more such plants of Ev manufracturing are required. AMAZING!!!! INCREDIBLE!!! INDIA. The EV industry single handed will boost the Indian economy to a trillion dollar economy in next 2-5 yrs. Three Cheers!!!! The electric mobility sunami thata arrived. Fantastic days of clean green mobility are here finally. Healing mother earth and huge savings for each one. NO COMPETETION Electric scooter 5/- Rupees per charge - 100+ Km + Clean & Green. Vs Petrol Scooter 100/- Rupees per ltr - 50 km + Air & Noise pollution. Electric mobility is toooo big an oppurtunity. Never in one's life time such a fantastic grand oppurtunity can come second time. We should be all grateful & thankful to Our God's for putting us in the right place at the right time. Any entrepreneur should grab it with both hand. Imagine being in a country with world's max number of two wheelers & now they all have to all be 100% replaced in next 4 years. It can't get bigger. The pies so huge that it's on one's own capicity to claim as much. Nothing could be better for people who want to do something with sky's as your only limit. Lot of people ask me how.....Nothing will change in your life if you don't do something different from what you've been doing. The real game of numbers........ mind boggling. Two wheelers monthly sales in India is appx Fifty Lac vehicles new & pre-owned. Per day it's works out to 1.2 lac vehicles sold daily. That's a turnover of 700-900 crores rupees or 10-12 millions usd daily. Incredible India!!! Most people focus on the wrong thing; They focus on the result, not the process. The process is the sacrifice, it's all the hard parts; the trust, the sweat, the pain, the tears, the losses. *You make the sacrifices any way. You learn to enjoy them, or at least embrace them.* In the end it is the sacrifices that must fulfill you. Everyone wants to predict the future--But one can only "guess", the truth only time has the power to show.!!! Though "Nothing can stop an idea whose time has come" & rest assured "It is not the strongest that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change." & It's team work with dedication passion & focus.. We at Rissala - Evolet stand strongly behind the Government for this push to electric mobility & do our bit to make it a success. The greatness of a company is not in how much wealth it acquires, but in its integrity & its ability to affect the people & enviornment around positively. _Ever Grateful to the Indian Army, Cavalry & the Horses!!!_ It's important to Dream big. Make a Bindass Passionate team & get down to Action!! *Waafadari, Junoon aur Wishwaas* _Agar hai toh aur kuch ho na ho faraq nahi padta, aur yeh nahi hai toh aur kuch bhi ho faraq nahi padta._ *Loyalty, Passion & Trust -* _If these qualities are there, then nothing else matters, & if not there, then anything else does not matter._ Ally. www.evoletindia.com. _What would you attempt to do if you knew you would not fail?_ www.evoletindia.com.
The Oil disruption in 2020 mainly happended due to the pandemic, so I guess without the economic crisis in 2020 there would have been no "disruption" in the Oil industry. This argument is vague at best.
Here's what will happen. Going forward demand for oil will drop because the world will be in depression. Whatever money there will be will be spent on health care and welfare. International travel will be restricted. Oil prices will remain cheap because companies and countries will try to recover what they can from their existing investments. Banks will not foreclose because it means they will collapse. Car companies will have no money to spend developing EV's. The world of cars will become like Cuba where existing cars are used forever. EV's required people with lots of money to make a statement, and they are probably gone. We are seeing the low consumption future today and many people do not like it and many people are being hurt badly.
Gas cars will feel like cars in Cuba and they already do. EVs will continue forward as cost curves continue to drop. Tesla is one of the only companies now that stand to continue since all of their products are battery only. Old auto will likely not survive.
@@a_velis Your prediction ignores how people react in hard times. Let's see what happens to Tesla in the next couple months. Even the Greenies agree with me www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/electric-vehicle-sales-set-to-crash-in-2020-as-coronavirus-bites-and-oil-stays-cheap
What you are ignoring is the falling prices of EV's. Also oil prices will go high if this continues for a while due to so much of the oil production industry going belly up, when demand picks up supply gets very tight. I don't class myself as 1st world wealthy, wifes a teacher, at present I work part time on a farm, but I'm waiting for an EV. I know long term it will be cheaper than an ICE, but thats only part of the reason for buying it. Saftey is a big one, keeping my family safe as possible is worth a lot to me. Pollution in urban areas is another. The list goes on. I hope we do go into a more sustainable form of consumerism and in many ways tech is helping, look how many products and materials it would have taken 40years ago that a smart phone does today. Yes people are been hurt, we f$%ked up massively building an unsustainable world built on cheap debt and fossil fuels. Hopefully we've learnt enough to change our ways.
The first industrial revolution is directly responsible for the downfall of the feudal social/economic/political system, and the creation of our current system as well. It was the 6th time in mans evolution that technology convergences changed our relationship to our environment, and thus our society as a whole, because the human species is a behavioral product of its environment. The next 10 years will be more disruptive to our society than the arrival of the steam era. We are now linear thinking mammals living in a world of exponentially accelerating scientific and technological capabilities. The following decade will be 16x as disruptive.
I have trouble imagining what life will be like 10 years from now. After a post covid- trip for my 60th birthday to Olive Garden, I am sure that most people will be fat and obese along with their children. We can solve the technical problems providing nearly free transportation, education, housing, food, entertainment, and medical care, put people just won't exercise.
@@billthebuilder1579 Our social arrangement today is scientifically invalid. Our education system is designed to perpetuate this belief structure. Everything around us, including our invalid economic model, is responsible for the way that our societies are behaving. The human species is a behavioral product of its environment. You want to understand why people are gorging themselves in Western civilization you have to understand the impacts that advertising and media has had on our societies over the last 80 years. Psychologically speaking the entire arrangement today is the antithesis of what it means to be a member of the human species. Arguably the most social creature that exists on this planet. And people wonder why we have a mental health and addiction (escapism from trauma) crisis in our societies? We need a new narrative or we are either going to kill ourselves of in this endless war for control of resources, or mother nature is going to shake us off like the fleas that we are.
Dear Tony, I have read your book and seen an earlier presentation already: great stuff! Now with the updated "realities" as of today it's even more impressive and will be even more tangible for some doubters, thank you!
Also think of the implications for traffic stops from law enforcement. There will be a much smaller need for police because almost all the cars will be following traffic laws by default. And traffic stops take up a huge percentage of law enforcements time so forces will likely need to be reduced significantly.
Dear Tony and team. Please allow for adding of translations. I would like to add Norwegian sub texts for easier viewing on the move. Goal: get 10 language subtext by crowdsourcing on RU-vid. You just need to allow it on the video. Thanks for the talk!
I don't speak any other languages but that's a great idea, the more people who can watch this the better. You might wanna try messaging his twitter and facebook pages too, links in the channels "about" tab.
Incredible analysis! Thank you @Tony Seba! People are getting caught flat footed and this pandemic is accelerating the disruption cure. Is there any way to access the side deck you used in this presentation?
21:41 Hoping USPS will get *180,000* all-electric LLV-replacement mail trucks - instead of gasoline or hybrid! Wondering if Tony has the ear of BidenHarris team - Granholm, Buttigieg, et al. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grumman_LLV
I've been telling my family and others for years that USPS needs to go electric for local delivery. I'm not sure why Tesla hasn't taken that on. Maybe it's just not profitable for them or the Damned Congress has made it not feasible. I still use USPS for delivery of my products and receipt of on-line purchases. Until Star Trek transporters come on-line I think we still need the delivery service that USPS provides.
"Seba's Law" = Li-iOn Batteries curve at 15:00 mins in. Thumbs up all to approve. Please pin this to the top too. Anyway, I formally declare that the "Li-iOn Batteries" cost curve at around 15:00 be called "Seba's Law." I posted this proclamation just days after Tony's "Future of Transportation" video in January, but I am betting Tony is being too modest. For added measure, I even said the same on my RU-vid videos so you can't hide Tony lol. So, let's all thumbs-up this comment to show Tony he deserves the credit for his hard work and being with other greats like Moore and Kryder (refer to his Transportation video from Jan 24, 2020 at around 7:10 where he compares the other "laws.") Meanwhile, since the lithium in the Li-iOn batteries is a low percentage and could someday be replaced by something different, maybe "Seba's Law" should = "Battery Technologies cost curve" or something similar. I'm going to keep reposting this until we give Tony the credit he deserves. Please help all.
I think a winning combination would be solar on the roof with battery storage and the home owner is off the electricity grid but stays on the gas grid and uses gas to generate electricity, air heat and hot water with a gas powered turbine when needed especially in winter. Alternatively a micro-grid for a small neighbourhood could work.
I'm starting to think TSLA stock might be pretty cheap at this time, he said only partially joking. Wonderful talk as usual, still stunning content! In many ways this is still secret knowledge ... but those who've seen this video are changing the world for the better in their own smaller ways as result of this information, maybe even subconsciously changing the world for the better.
what I heard, "smart people in their smart organizations failing to grasp" the new technology in plain sight that will disrupt and probably destroy their market share their profit their business. If you're inside one of these organizations you might realize that they're not listening, not yet. For every decade they delay and ignore, well that's kinda their own fault.
