the way votes come in (as in counted) is not gonna be reminiscent of 2020, it's gonna be more like 2016 so no huge 600k vote leads with 25% in, it's gonna be more like vote counting in 2016
I think it'll still be similar to 2020, however since the Republicans will also be be utilizing ballot harvesting it will still take awhile for actual results to come in
I guess you forgot about Ralph Warnock getting re-elected by around 100,000 votes. Kemp did better in 2022 than he did 2018 because incumbents, especially Governors, usually have an advantage. Governors are often term limited and those that aren't don't serve more than three four year terms anyway. Plenty of them choose to retire after 8 years even if they're not term limited and very popular like Charlie Baker ( R-MA).
@@doody244 You also forgot Walker was a very poor candidate. Even if you look downballot, everyone but Walker did better than in the last election except a few, like MTG.
@innosam123 It’s real easy to win down ballot when the districts are heavily gerrymandered in your favor. The fact the GOP purged voters for no legitimate reason helps a lot too. I’m sure it was just a coincidence that around 90% were black. The well educated Atlanta suburbanites who decide statewide races will not be choosing Trump at the ballot box.
Yeah, but this is giving you people a false hope! Orange Goon is too damaged, and carries too much baggage to even win a dog catcher race! Joe Biden will defeat him again. Period!!
Did you make the Electoral Map this ridiculous on purpose? NV, PA, and WI going red, AZ, GA, and MI going blue? Swap MI and PA with AZ and GA, then it would be somewhat realistic.
I could see Arizona & Georgia flipping back red I think Pennsylvania, Wisconsin & Michigan will go blue Joe Biden will definitely win Virginia trump will probably win Texas & North Carolina & probably Ohio I'm still thinking there is a major possibility that trump may not even be the nominee
I don't think Nevada or Pennsylvania flips. With the economy recovering, a Trump/Biden rematch will end the same as 2020 - Trump losing big time. Dems will end up with the trifecta - take back the House, hold the Senate and hold the White House.
Laxalt only dropped off in the rural counties, if he had done slightly better with them then he would've won. And I know he said he wouldn't run in 24, but we've seen candidates say that in the past and run anyways, and who else would really stand a chance to win it besides him.
@@Cisco-1944 If democrats would’ve turned out more Hispanic and Latino voters they would’ve won Nevada by a much larger margin. So that’s a pretty biased perspective to have.
@@MilitaryElectionForecastingconsidering Biden is abyssmal with Hispanic voters, its actually not biased at all. Because if more turned out theyd be voting republican
@@fm32047 that’s untrue as 2020 and 2022 proved. Democrats outperformed Biden with Latino voters in Nevada & across the nation excluding FL, CA, and NY. Hispanic & Latino voters have a history of shifting towards incumbents regardless of party. Though Biden lost ground with Hispanic voters he still won them overwhelmingly so more turnout from them would still benefit Democrats regardless of narrow improvements amongst Republicans.
@@MilitaryElectionForecasting “Biden lost ground yet won them overwhelmingly” you cant have it both ways and Trump has been surging with Hispanic voters so no it wouldnt at all. Hispanic voters have been moving right across the nation thanks to Trump. Compared to years past, dems have lost ground with Hispanics including 2020 because they thought that playing Despacito on a cell phone would lock in their votes. Left wing racism still hard at work and 2024 is gonna prove you wrong when not only more Hispanic voters move right but when we get Nevada, Wisconsin and potentially Georgia back.
The only thing he’s right about is FL. Believe me I loathe Rick Scott but FL is now a red state. Democrats should focus on flipping purple districts like the one Luna represents. She’s the lunatic ( pun intended) that lead the ridiculous crusade against Adam Schiff. She also lied about having Jewish heritage when in fact her grandfather was a Nazi.
I think it'll go down the wire for sure either way, I just feel that if the ballot harvesting operation Trump has spoken of is good enough, he could overcome some reversion in PA. And I was thinking of doing Biden v DeSantis or Biden v Youngkin next, wasn't sure which to do but it'll be some time till that happens.
@@fm32047Biden is more likeable among suburban women which is a main demographic in the blue wall states (PA being one). Trump is clearly disliked in PA in particular as shown by the fact that Fetterman won the senate race against the heavily Trump backed Oz.
This will never happen. I've studied psephology extensively. I predicted the 2016 results in PA,WI, & MI correctly. I tried to warn Clinton staff at an event hosted by Cher on 8/23/16. Apparently my young age and lack of experience weren’t factors as they ignored Bill Clinton too. Trumpkin won't be the first person to lose the popular vote three times. William Jennings Bryan, who later served as Sec. of State, lost the popular vote three times. Trump will be the only one who also served a term as President which of course only happened because of the archaic and undemocratic Electoral College. Grover Cleveland will continue to remain the only person to serve two non-consecutive terms as President.
I mean Martin van burean probably also would have if you include all Whig votes and if South Carolina’s electoral votes were given though a popular vote
Walker lost Georgia in 2022 because he was Trump backed, Biden has a weirdly good record with african americans in the south, in particular religious african american women. He wins Georgia in ‘24 as a result imo.
I am wrong about this to be honest because maricopa county doesn’t seem like it’s going go to anywhere a tad bit right but we are so far from the election maybe something can change
Biden is healthier than the majority of Trumpers half his age. Most of them are obese and unvaccinated. May I ask where you went to medical school? My degrees are in economics, political science, and music so I’m no medical expert. That’s why I trust actual doctors like my sister in law who went to Harvard.
Baldwin probably gonna lose to Tom Tiffany and Trump takes Georgia. Also Laxalt isnt running so Rick Harrison most likely wins the nomination and the seat for Republicans. Other than that I totally agree with everything here
