The supply of any particular comic book will not increase in the future. The supply equals the number produced (knowable in some cases, estimable in others) minus attrition (not knowable). The "circulating supply" might grow, though, when prices-realized become tempting for sellers, or when they die off (as happens all too frequently now), still in possession of decades of accumulated comics. And I think it's pretty well understood that the old timers with those accumulations are pretty likely to have mostly unslabbed books, paired with maybe a dislike for slabbing generally. But they aren't likely to die off all at once, of course, so their treasures will probably trickle into the market at an absorbable rate. I expect big finds to drop off over the next twenty years or so, as those quiet accumulators' collections are absorbed. The nicest of those collectors' books, and probably a lot of lesser specimens as well, will eventually find themselves slabbed, and counted in the census.
Great video for numerous reasons: selflessly giving voice to contrary points of view, a reasoned conversation about scarcity that introduces the uninitiated to the Gerber Scale -and an update to the update on those assessments. Thanks for this, Mickey!
@@Swagglehaus Sounds good, brother. BTW: I do love the Gerber Scarcity Index. The "20 and under" definition for rare is so tough and perhaps tougher than Gerber intended. Even the three "rare" books you and I agree on -- GobbledyGook1, Suspense 3, and Pep Comics 22 -- would not qualify under this stringent definition. The number 200, which I put out there, represents a typical comic from the late '30s through the early '40s. Not that 200 is magical but it is a order of magnitude rarer than most silver-age keys and two orders of magnitude rarer than most bronze age keys. I consider the typical, early golden age book as being rare. Looking forward to a future conversation.
I agree with you Swagglehaus, I believe that buyers of comic books are who solely set the value of back issue comics on the secondary market. The age and rarity of a comic book is secondary to how much someone is willing to pay for a comic book... The point at which a buyer is willing to pay for a comic book matters the most over everything else.
Good stuff. I actually commented on Keston's video about the Gerber index, which I know he is very aware of. I was surprised he didn't mention it. Ultimately I think the hobby definition of rare should be more based on the supply of buyers and the number of copies available. I use a similar definition of rare as you do. I think if I wanted a book how hard would it be to get it or how quickly could I get it. Part of the reason I hate selling comics is due to the fear of not being able to replace them if I do.
Im an oldtimer, age 67. Been collecting since age 8. Since age 17 seriously. Owned two stores in NY, Long Island from late 80s to 1997. In Gerber, I remember distinctly many of the books over the years were found in higher quantity over time but there are plenty of books that have shown the converse and are found to be much Scarcer than what Gerber thought. Some of these you look and look and maybe you find 1 or 2 show up in a year. If that. I also have to say, in the Golden Age Romance and 2nd Tier Sci Fi realm there are books that one never sees for 3, 4 years. Some, Ive never seen on ebay, or the auctions or shows over the past 10 years. ALSO, sometimes a book may be scarce or slightly less than scarce but once it goes into a collection and kept for 30 years, the book is now labeled Rare simply cause a closet collector now has it tucked away!?!?!!! Take 200 closet collectors on a book that they believe there are only 300 of and instantly 2/3rd are now missing from the market and may never be seen again to give census for many years if at all. Its more like, we did have 300 copies. Where did they all go?
You can't define rarity by the number of copies of an issue that exist. Yes 10 would be rare, but if nobody wants them, then it is pointless. Rarity is the ratio of supply to demand. There could be a billion gallons of water on the planet but there are 8 billion people who want that water. That billion gallons is going to be pretty rare/scarce. There could be 50k copies of ASM 129 in existence but if 500k people desire an ASM 129 then 50k seems rare. There is a steady supply of new houses that are built every year but house prices still go up because demand outstrips supply. And nobody is making anymore first print ASM 129s. But they are making people.
The content is spreading like the Borg!!! What is the census of people that actually collect comics? How much is that going down each year? That is a very important number. My favorite thing you said in the video, "They just want to collect it not get rich off of it." Your definition of rare is spot on!
Mega Triggered! 😂 All we can do now is go back to recording a reaction to the reaction TO THE REACTION lol the content loop never ends.....and we all win ;)
I just want to own the books featuring the characters I love. Its cool when theres value associated with them, but I could care less as long as it means I get to own and cherish that book while im here 👍
The Gerber scale was an updated version of what the Overstreet Price Guide used for years. With Overstreet 1-20 copies was rare and 20-200 was scarce. Anything else was just difficult to find. I favor Overstreet over Gerber but both to me are fine and don’t require updating. Just because some books fall out of a scale shouldn’t mean a scale is outdated or needs change. A lot of collectible fields use the number 10 or 20 as an item being rare or very rare. Also consider a lot of books like romance or kids comics (Archie’s),etc. may very well be easy to find in general but we also have a thing called rarity or scarcity in grade. It’s why a $15.00 very good can rocket into hundreds very quickly if “rare” or “scarce” in grade. Finally I hate to say it because I know a number of dealers/collectors are either lazy or just don’t want to take the time but CGC is now bloated in its census because people don’t have past grading numbers removed when resubmitting books. I own a lot of golden age books that have their previous numbers still being counted because of regrading. Even books like Action #1 have not been safe from this practice. If a book gets cracked and pressed you can never assume the person resubmitting always takes the time to notify CGC. They just don’t. Good piece either way. Just don’t turn your channel into a reaction video. RU-vid has enough of those. Lol
Smash that like button!! Swag with another awesome Clap Back video! I don’t like saying comics aren’t rare because the older books are no longer in production and agree they are worth what someone is willing to pay but I love your content.. Supply and demand.. love your videos man..
I think what is lost in this discussion is the struggle to find these books at times in the wild VS online. I live in Western,Pa, a half hour from Pittsburgh. There are many comic shops, Flea Markets, garage sales and antique stoes/Malls. Even in a well populated area with plenty of interstate commerce, try to find a book as common as Hulk 181 through non-online venues. It's tough. Shops don't have these books in stock. Collections are Cherry-picked, high grade copies tough to find. I sold a low grade FF #1 to Eides in Pittsburgh for a pretty penny in 2010. They've been open since the 70's and that's the second copy they saw up to that point. I can go online and find anything,try to find it local is much harder.
Good video and glad you got a great dialogue going here. Glad my friend Lawrence @mightcomicsandcollectibles made your cut. Always insightful. Basically, if a book is available every week on auctions, it is not rare. Its certainly demand and characters within. There are a lot of AF15s out there. But its still tough to find one for less than $10K in any grade. I do think many copper to some modern keys are way overpriced. (i.e. ASM 129 and Hulk 181). There are 10K copies available of each and everyone has a copy to sell. But everyone wants one as well... There is also the hidden market of hoarded books too that collectors have dusted away forever 15-20 years ago (i.e. CGC 9.0 copies of every book) that will never see the light... I do buy keys but happy to have a great presenting book even if in lower grades... Buy what you love, with no regrets.
Love the great discussion, very smart and interesting opinions on all sides✊ it’s very entertaining and delightful.. I love and subscribe to all these RU-vidrs fr fr
To be fair, Ernie created the Photo Journal Guides way before CGC and way before the internet. He made an educated guess of rarity based on being a part of the comic book world, knowing dealers, probably getting input from people like Bob Overstreet and Don & Maggie Thompson and watching auctions like Christie's and Sotheby's. I can pretty accurately say that the scale he used would probably contain the same books in their current "rarity rating" but the rarity numbers would probably be adjusted some if he came out with the photo journals in the past 5 years. Something rated a 10 would probably be less than 10 copies in existence; a 9 I would put 11-25 copies; an 8 being 25-50, and a 7 51-100. I don't agree that if you had unlimited funds you couldn't find almost anything unless it was in that 10 range. Everything has a price and I guarantee if you would pay double or triple the real value of a Suspense #3, someone would give it up, even out of their own personal collection. My definition of "rare" is what is your chance of finding this in any average location. If you went to 10 or 20 comic stores or some shows, can you find this sitting on a shelf or in the back room waiting for that special customer to come in. Just because something shows up in Heritage like an Action #1 or a Marvel Comics #1 doesn't mean it's not rare. How many collectors out there of a specific title, hero or genre exist versus how many copies exist? It was also a big deal back in the day for the same copy of say an Action #1 to change hands between the same 2-3 dealers every few years just to make news and keep interest in our hobby.
I like your channel. Sometimes I don't agree but hey that makes it fun. I do agree with your definition of rare. Saying that alot of comics are SS class rare for me. 😅 I usually just go for new comics and varients because I like the different styles of art. Have a blessed day and take care, brother.
Stop me if you've heard me say this before (because I've said it many times in the comments on this channel over the last couple of years) - but Swag hit on it in this video - the thing that may tank comic book prices in the future is the lack of new collectors coming to the hobby. With the cost of living skyrocketing, salaries stagnating, and living spaces shrinking (i.e. kids today will be lucky to have condos and apartments to live in - not exactly conducive to housing a comic collection), comics are going to be waaaay down the list of things to spend money on.
@@TT-fq7pl No, they really don't. In the past when I've mentioned this very thing I got laughed at or told I'm wrong, flat-out. Look, I can't see the future, but neither can anybody else. What I do know is that life only gets more expensive unless you're already wealthy enough to scoff at the rising cost of living. I doubt that applies to anybody watching these videos. Middle-aged collectors - those who have built their collection of 9.8s with hopes of selling them off to the next generation for a huge windfall are (in my view) in for a rude awakening when that time comes, and they find the market is massively shrunk and values permanently depressed. So, by all means, continue speculating, continue slabbing and continue to invest in your collection (I do). But first and foremost, be sure to at least enjoy the hobby, and love the art/stories (I do). If all else fails, at least you got some happiness out of it before realizing that it can't fund your retirement.
Comparing the comic book market to the diamond industry was on point. The De Beers have controlled the diamond supply for a very long time. Diamonds have some intrinsic value (use in tools for cutting) as I would suggest that the entertainment aspect of comics constitutes some value. But the demand drives the price, not the intrinsic value.
Well you are right to a point. Because beloved books aren't really Rare. The Rare books are books that really nobody cares about. You see that q lot with Collecting Toys.
totally agree. there are comics that have an extremely low retailer order like - Lobo #60, Copies ordered by retailers: 12,862 , but no one really cares about Lobo too much. but books like that are more rare than say New Mutants #98.
I completely agree with your definition of rare books. “Hey, does that mean my expensive old key books aren’t rare?” Asked the collector man. Actually yeah, if you think about it, that’s exactly what that means. But are they still cool, desirable, collectible, liquid and expensive? Absolutely. Just because it’s not “rare” doesn’t mean it ain’t cool.
3:50 very true. My LCS has 6 copies of X-Men 1 and they are all $10 or more (compared to the average $3). High supply means nothing in comics if demand is also high
Regarding the guy at 13:00; he's not into comics, he's into investments. If you're into comics, you want the non-keys as well as the keys. We got into this hobby because of the art and stories, not because they might be worth alot of money some day. That was just a happy accident.
Thanks for sparking this long overdue discussion, Swag! It's time we redefine our terms. Avengers Assemble! You're like the Tony Stark of the group. Next topic: which comics are considered VINTAGE?
I agree. My niche is video game comics. I always keep saying alot of the books are undervalued because they are insanely rare. as in, I have money and literally cant find them. and For me I only collect 9.8s... some of mine are 1 of 1 or 1 of 2-5 etc... now that video game comics are starting to get popular a bit, we are seeing huge price hikes prob because people are starting the hunt and are going" damn! I cant even find a copy on ebay let alone 'in the wild'!!!"
I think it's interesting that the CGC census is being used to determine number of copies/rarity given that A) it doesn't include raw copies and B) everyone knows that the census is inaccurate, thanks to decades of folks cracking and resubmitting to get a grade they like.
With all the re slabbing I find the censuses ok but unreliable. I know of at least 20 comics that have less than 3 comics slabbed. Think Large Feature Comic, New Adventure, Little Giant, Blue Beetle 16.
How many copies are cracked with out the original labels sent in ?? Some of the more supply might not exist. Also if a book is lost it wouldn't be accounted for.
You're not wrong, but very few books are significantly impacted by ghost copies. No one has inflated a 10 copy book to a 1000 copy book by resubmissions. Maybe a 900 copy book can be inflated to 1000, but the order of magnitude is not going to change substantially over the rest of the market.
Other than very few super early books most grails can be found just depends on what you are willing to pay I can get an amazing fantasy 15 easy if I have the money. rarity vs attainability is more of an issue in my opinion.
Even if the census is low it doesn’t mean it’s in demand. Just because it’s less than 200 doesn’t mean that it’s “rare” collectibilty wise. How does that come into play? Census + demand = rarity ?
Swag great video. I would love to c u do a panel show on the effects cgc releasing more and more 9.9 and 10.0 will have on the market. Also what strategies can dealers and collectors take, they may not be the same. Should dealers liquidate 9.8’s, crack and regrade? What buying strategies should collectors take? Wait? What effect does this have on different eras. Is the modern 9.8 now the new 9.6? Etc etc. Automatic comics recent video showing there have been 10 9.9 and 10.0 added to the cgc census last month alone for Wolverine limited #1 was a real eye opener. Thanks for your time.
The CGC Census doesn't adjust for books that have been taken out of prior encapsulation, pressed and resubmitted for a hopeful grade increase. Not every owner shares the prior data with CGC.
I 100% about how you defined rare. Separating rare and desirable is the key. It's emotion vs reality. We all believe ASM 129 is a special book and we all want a copy but that doesn't make it rare. If people quite buying crap and saved their pennies for a few weeks, you too can buy a copy. There will always be copies on the open market.
I applaud you, sir, for recognizing that heavy metal snobbery is the yardstick we need to apply in deciding who’s right in this debate. But I think we need to explore further.. Putting aside the question whether Collectibles Dad saw Metallica perform during the AJFA tour - as I did - we must also consider that Swagglehaus and the Mighty Comics guy could be wearing old, faded “black album” shirts. Furthermore, that long-sleeve red shirt that Keaton is wearing underneath the Spidey t-shirt could, possibly, be a bootleg Kill ‘em All shirt. I’m going with Keston as the winner here, because Metallica died when Cliff did, and Keston looks old enough to have seen Metallica with Ron McGovney on bass, unlike the other three. Your rebuttal and/or entreaties that I “get a life” are of course welcome.
Just as a point of interest, I wonder whether there are any comic books that are known/proven to have been published, but no copies are currently known to exist. This, to me, would be the benchmark for a rare comic book. Anybody know of any examples? Here's a possibility that I wonder about -- in the old television sitcom, The Many Loves of Dobie Gillis, the main character's father ran a small grocery store, and it frequently appeared in the show. There was a magazine rack in the store, and it sometimes displayed copies of a comic book called "Arnold Nooper." I assume this was a prop, consisting of a mock-up cover made by the TV studio's art department, attached to a real comic book. But I don't know. In any event, I believe that an "authentic" copy of any Arnold Nooper comic would probably draw a bit of collector interest simply because it's a historic curiosity that speaks to the role comic books have played in U.S. culture. And (presumably) very, very few were produced. I've never seen or heard about existing copies.
Some books are just rare in high grade. Been trying to find FF 103 and 107 in NM for a long time. Found a graded 103 in NM but its overgraded. So it goes on
Hulk 181 has a ton of copies graded but yet the book keeps on getting sold on a daily basis and the market has absorbed the price. It has gone down and gone up but you have not seen the price crater with all the supply out there because of the demand. Same with ASM 129.
Exciting Comics 39, Teenage Romances 32, Comic Cavalcade 26 ….books I randomly bought in the 90s… I’m noticing that you can’t find them on eBay. I guess that’s the modern definition of “rare” books.
Interesting relationship between scarce, hard to come by and in demand and then running a filter through what's left, of who will be around to want to buy the book in 20 years - look at how the Elvis market crashed as his fans died off, and how old comic fans are today. With the Elvis collectors, there were few people left who were able to buy and interested to buy. There is a grim part of the market.
Comics & most of the collectible market is an unregulated market. Supply & demand macroeconomics is not generally applicable to artificial produced “scarcity”. Few books are even scarce honestly.
Id be more scared if the whales sold their books. Many of the mega rich have LARGE collections of RAW books we will never see. It would NOT shock me if some whale has 10+ copies EACH of Action 1, Tec 27, AF 15, etc.
Scarce vs. rare vs. tough. Very few comics are rare. Many, however, are scarce, depending on market conditions. And some comics, are tough in grade (e.g., early Silver Age DC key in VF- or higher). Using the old Gerber Scarcity Index: 7 (Scarce) 21-50 copies 8 (Rare) 11-20 copies 9 (Very Rare) 6-10 copies
To me, a rare book is one that you can't find on ebay or at a major seller. That book deserves a healthy premium. It's not really relevant how many long boxes of it exist in someone's crawl space. Arguing whether some book is worth 9000 instead of 10000 is ridiculous. You can't flip your car to a dealer.
why are people using the cgc census as basis to say something is rare/scarce? there are other grading company's that did those books as well so they aren't counted and not to mention grading is a niche as well bc raw collecting far out weighs graded collecting so you will never come close to a true number going by that alone. while all the price stuff is correct it's all supply/demand & popularity are what matters price wise, but most SA keys are common based on numbers alone. gerber is so out of date it isn't funny considering it was made pre internet, why anyone uses it now doesn't make sence about as much sence using OSPG to price your books in a living market.
I really wish Sports Dealers would stop dealing in Comics! Coin Dealers too! I cringe! Seems every time they cant pay the bills with sport cards, they get involved in everyone elses hobbies and screw it up. Whenever I hear Sports Dealers or Coin dealers talk comics, I just shake my head and walk away. One cannot serve two masters and serve them equally well. Directly responsible for the gigantic ordering and comic crash from 1992 to 1994. They saw the Superman Dies issue went as far up as $65 and started ordering 60 , 80, 120 copies of the popular Valiant books. Only to find out thousands of other sports guys thought they were going to be comic book millionaires and did the same thing. You went to a show and saw stacks and stacks of Valiants on sports dealers tables that they couldnt sell. Culminating in overprinting of Turok #1 with millions of copies. Copies we called Fireplace Kindling. When we were ordering 40 copies for a store, they were ordering 120 copies and Had NO Store. And please stay away from Non Sport Entertainment cards too! Like what they call Luke Skywalker ROOKIE CARD! They did a number on POGS too and have infiltrated toys now as well. Ugh!.
Rarity means less now than it ever has. Not only are there thousands and thousands of copies of some of the most popular books, even some of the oldest golden age books are a google search away. Also, buying something based off the census is foolish. The number of 10’s and 9.9’s only stands to go up, especially with CGCs ever changing grading scale.
I am better looking than Brad Pitt, richer than Warren Buffett, an IQ of 200, and I have a copy of every comic book ever made (all 9.9 or higher.) Now you know what hyperbole means! LOL!!!
It would have made more sense if rarity was based on census. Rare 100, 200 or 1000 on census? Speculation of possible non rare books in the ether does not help explain rare.
Rare, scarce, low print on the census books mean just that. There aren't many of them out there. It does not mean they are desired by collectors and buyers. Some rare/scarce/low print books are desirable and the price speaks for itself. It is that simple to me. Not all rare/scarce/low print books are desirable and have high value. If that were the case, every "exclusive variant' ever made would be worth a lot more than they are now.
I don't mind your rarity definition but I feel it needs a caviat. Story time... I was speaking to a high end mustang dealer, and he told a story of a guy that bought two cars from him and wanted "all 6 of them". Dealer managed to aquire 3 of the remaining 4 for the collector, but there was one holdout: a flight attendant who's car was the last remaining memory of her father. One day she was in Hawaii and saw a gorgeous piece of land... yada yada yada, he got that last one for the price of the Land. So yes, that car is rare, only 6 in existence, but he was also able to acquire all 6 with enough money. So the caveat I propose is.... "aquire without moving the fair market value by... x%" maybe x is 5%, maybe 10%... but if you're paying 10x the current "fair market value".. that doesn't make it not rare.
People definitely get defensive, because they want the 1 of 1. Hence the focus on comments like "this book is tough in grade" or "a newsstand is so rare". They want their nice copies to mean something.
SAVAGE SHE-HULK #1 CGC 9.8 = 330 dollars on Ebay. Before it was going for 1000 dollars. How Rare a Comic book is matters along with honest desire to own a copy.
So here's the truth.. are some comics rare? Yes.. But it's not the big Grails that everybody immediately thinks about. The hulk 181s and things like that. The comics that are rare are typically the ones that don't go for near the price that you pay for those Grails. They are Comic-Con exclusives, or limited print runs. Things like that.. those are the ones you want to go after.
I dis agree, inflation is going to have a negative affect on collectables dollar devaluation is bad for collectables!!! With the soaring price of goods and groceries that’s going to eat away at saving to where people are not going to have extra money to have on books,,, not only that the economy is collapsing so there will be mass layoffs, stores are shutting down… companies are going to struggle to stay open so on the bright side you will see way lower print runs in books if you can manage to keep up… But you are going to see books that you never though you could own for affordable prices. The dollar collapse is going to be slow rotting and it’s probably going to last the rest of our lifetime so unless you’re collecting for your grandchildren don’t expect an immediate return on your investment. Hold for the long haul.
Ha “Hyperbole” nice euphemism for attention grabbing extreme language or…I think there is a word that has been created for this and that word is “click bait”
