People saying Tua can't read defenses are usually "parroting " others. Do they even know the play call? Do they even know the progression on the play? How about when it changes based on the defense changing before the snap? Can you even get to the 3rd read in 2.5 seconds? Truth is, i doubt these people do. I've seen Manning, Warner and Romo showing tape of Tua reading defenses. I'll believe them over some of these fans' takes. Keep up the good work!
It's such a complicated game and there is a huge wave of info boiling it down it gets hard to dial it in. I agree on all the above... not say Tua doesn't have flaws, but it's so much more than many make it out to be. Thanks as always brother.
Hey, Curtis! Glad you're feeling better. The hard thing about evaluating Tua is that his strength is anticipation and quick decisions. meaning his first read will look open because he throws with so much anticipation. What he doesn't have, like you say, is neither a good OL or freakish athleticism to escape at the last minute. So he has to escape and move the pocket earlier than other QBs to find his other options. My question with him is can he reset and throw accurately? Or throw on the move? He has struggled with consistency in these areas. This coming year when he's back in shape and now has OBJ, Smith and even Achane as other options, we will learn more about Tua. BUT...there's still that OL question.
Thanks, brother... don't know if he's the guy for us... BUT I know without a doubt this OL isn't. So, we'll see what is what with Tua... they think less than market value, but they are fine going all in on scheme and money for 2022-2025? Curious...
I use the scientific method for any topic i discuss: 1. Make an observation. 2. Ask a question. 3. Form a hypothesis, or testable explanation. 4. Make a prediction based on the hypothesis. 5. Test the prediction. 6. Iterate: USE THE RESULTS TO MAKE NEW HYPOTHESIS OR PREDICTIONS. People don't fully use the scientific method they; Make an observation Ask a question Form a hypothesis Test the prediction Use CERTAIN results to try and validate their hypothesis. That's not what your supposed to do. it's confirmation bias.
Said it very well... this is what I try to do... don't always, but it's my goal. Emotionals are only good on gameday... of course, sometimes it's hard to control those wild beasts and biases form... no one is above being human.
Really pleased to hear that things have gradually started getting back on track with the health & fitness brother ❤ sadly its been a hard few weeks for me as I’ve been navigating a break up, so I’m hoping to get back on top of things myself and have a workout tomorrow lined up so hopefully ill start getting back in a good rhythm. You called it with Conor - you said he would be best at centre, and wouldn’t wanna play second fiddle to Brewer at Miami. Really appreciate the knowledge about how the scheme has also played a part in not allowing Tua to reach his full potential in terms of his reading of defences and overall ability.
Thanks, sir! Ouch!!! A break up... sorry to hear! Workouts are so good for the emotions... just banged heads with wifey and I'm dying to lift tomorrow :) Sorry to hear that, brother... Breakups are never fun times. Sadly I was right with connor... I just hope Grier is right with Brewer over connor... real hope he is. Feel better and hit them weights, John!!!
Looking at how Tua's pocket lasted under 2 seconds for multiple games last season (According to FantasyPros' Advanced Quarterback Stats), it may be interesting to look at his output compared to some of his contemporaries when dealing with same pocket times over multiple games. I know the 1.9s pocket that KC provided Gabbert in week 18 caused him to struggle quite a bit, for example
I'll look into it. This Dolphins OL has been very poor... but, I'll look into other teams. We had a 2.08 blitz time compared to a clean time of 2.09. We were the only team in the NFl to have a worse bitz TT than Clean TT... time is the foundation of every pass play... the longer the time without pressure the better the chance for success and the chance for a big play... screens and etc excluded.
@@d8l835 There's a major difference between pocket time and time to throw. That's part of the reason in the disparity between PFF's passing grade vs ESPN's pass block win rate. If the line keeps Tua clean for 2.5s and he throws it quicker, that's typically due to an opening Tua sees or anticipates. If the line falls apart in 1.8s like it did vs the Cowboys, Tua has to let it fly quickly regardless of how good his reads look. ESPN's PBWR dings a line for not protecting for 2.5s regardless of whether it did enough relative to when the throw went out, so Tua's quick release doesn't mask the blocking deficiencies. We saw how Mahomes had no shot in the Super Bowl in Tampa when his line lost too many starters to adequately protect him. Unfortunately I don't know what the average pocket time for that game was as the site I mentioned seems to only track regular season games (or I simply just haven't figured out how to access it). There are also plenty of other franchises moaning about poor pass protection, I just thought it would be interesting to see stuff like "yes Burrow had poor blocking but from 1.8-2.0 seconds of pocket protection, his numbers look like this vs Tua's". I suspect Tua is in fairly rare territory when it comes to percentage of passing snaps that fall apart in under 2.5s
@@AcePerHead yah it might have been. I can't remember what statistic it was discussing though. Passer Rating perhaps? If I see it again I'll let ya know man
Me too... was taking time off lifting today... but think I might not... that's 6 out of 7 days lifting... that's hasn't been achieved in a long, long time :) I'm smiling a ton more... some surgery and I should be good as new... well... almost :)
Before Wynn and Connor Williams went down we actually had an average functioning offensive line last season. The question is can Eichenburg, Brewer, Jackson, Wynn, and Armstead get back to that level we seen early in 2023? And if not, how much does it hinder our offense? In the last 9 games we only scored 22 offensive TD's compared to scoring 35 offensive TD's in the first 8 games. One can say defenses figured us out but it was clear the O-Line continued to decline. Can the addition of Brewer combined with the development of Eichenburg and Jackson offset the losses of Williams, and Hunt?
Well, if you factor in the level of competition nd matchup, my eval says no they weren't. But that's my eval... I have a table of 'proof' for that eval... but, in the end, it's the past. I think Brewer is better than williams at getting to the second level and snapping... other than that he's at a distance as far as skills. Eich is far behind Hunt... far. BUT, this is a skills based offense, so the hope has to rest in the addition of Smith and OBJ and Wright. Can they create more leverage and plays and keep this O on schedule.... They did figure us out and the Oline declined... and the talent on the opposition's side increased. From Chargers challenges us, so did the Pats, Bills clobbered us and we destroyed Den, Car, and Gints at home... then everything after that except the Jets (no O)and Wash (stripped out their D in trades and poorish O) we had close games with. I think we can do things this season with a decreased OL as long as Terron plays a lot... not sure about the top teams, on the road, and in bad weather though.... this has been my eval for 2 seasons and it will continue this season... but, if we can fix some stuff on O stay a little healthy and really challenge Ds with this skills... why not... again, just my eval, Sam.
@AcePerHead I really appreciate your diligence and passion for our fins and I love picking your brain. I rewatched our season back in March and I thought isaiah Wynn was descent in pass pro infact he looked as good as he did back in 2020 & 21. Wynn wasn't a good LG but as a pass protector he brought consistancy and did the job very much like lamb replacing Terron. The loss of Connor Williams was too big to overcome. Williams was by far our best lineman last season infact he graded out as the best Center in football via PFF (86.5) for whatever it's worth. Outside Williams snapping issues he really was an elite center last year. I thought as a unit we were average but losing Wynn we started to look below average, and after losing Williams it was clear that we were one of the worst lines in football.
Would be an interesting video to look throughout NFL history to see how many years it took for QBs to be a part of Play Off or even Super Bowl winning team. Pretty sure it took Peyton Manning more than 5 years to win one play off game let alone even making it to the play offs consistently. Same with Brees and likely MANY others. Keep up the great work man!
First thing first… Curtis, good to hear you’re getting healthy! 🤙🏼 Football IS a team sport… the most team-oriented of all sports. Tua is NOT a 2-read QB (a “processor”)… not because he lacks the skill set (there hasn’t been the opportunity to evaluate him on this skill set)… he is a 1-read QB because he does not have the OL to afford him the time! Nor does Miami have a CONSISTENT running attack, again in large part to an OL that has injuries & a lower talent level. So Tua is what he is because he has only 2 seconds to throw. WHO else can we REASONABLY get to run THIS offense? With THIS OL? Names anyone? We made our bed with TUA and THIS offense… PAY THE MAN! And pray. 🙏🏼
Thanks, kiko!!! Yeah, man... getting there. You know I agree you you...but I'm not saying paying the man is THE right move... but when you invest soooo much in time and money on players to support his skillset and don't build an off ramp in scheme due to players or another player to assume the position, this just makes no sense. I think they might 5th him and then tag him and then if it doesn't work out blame him so Grier can rebuild again without any responsibility... maybe not.. maybe he gets signed tomorrow... maybe that the right move... maybe not... but saying he isn't worth market value invalidates everything this team has said and done over the last 2 and half seasons. Weird.
Good analysis. Too bad we likely won't land Williams, though makes sense that he wouldn't lean towards Miami if he wants to focus on playing Center. Hopefully the day comes that Tua has an OL that gives him time the same time to assess/throw as many other top QBs have.
thanks, brother... yeah. OL makes the NFL world go around... every incremental increase over the opposing front lowers the difficulty for the skills incrementally. The converse is also true.
The delivery of plays to Tua has to be quicker and more concise, to open up audibles. Swift communication is not Coach Mike's strong suit, brilliant play caller at times but maybe there needs to be an OC as intermediary to deliver the plays.
I agree... but to his defense, it was a lot to take on... this season should tell us all we need to know... There were some strong improvements between year 1 and 2 on his side... this is a big one!
Do you foresee there being any changes to wether or not tua is calling the protection without williams? Or is Brewer okay with that responsibility? How do you think that changes the play of the offense, or does it not really make a big difference?
Hi Curtis , the question of the million , do you pay tua top qb money , ?? Or better bring some cheap veteran and build the team the right way ?? That’s why I do
I don't know... the recipe is so messed up and off my desired recipe... it's such a hard call... I do know we'd better sign him before they sign love!!! If not, it could get very ugly!
Tua can't read coverages or not being asked to. I saw this early on but was called names by other fans. Tua's a system quarterback, he can be effective in a system.
@@davidmacdonald2919 not necessarily, Dan. Tua’s a “spot-thrower”he’s told to just get the ball 10-15 yards up field in under 2.2 seconds. Listen, man: Tua’s short, weak-armed, not fast, and injury-prone. He should take the Daniel Jones contract if he’s smart. I’d take Tannehill over Tua in a second
@@erichood611 Tannehill couldn’t read a defense. That was his problem. Tua actually can read a defense hence why he knows the throw to make based on. What the defense is doing.
Dwight Stephenson was only 255lbs and handled the fridge. That's like an 80lb difference. Brewer is looking like a 10 (most DTs)to 40lb (big zero techs) difference. Is Brewer, Stephenson? Nope, but it shows it's possible.
Dwight... I was crushed at his loss.... so true so true. I think Brewer can do well in a small skillset and struggle in others... can we keep him in that skillset? How do the gs protect him?
@@jasonstamps4013 I was speaking in general. And Brewer is no Stephenson. Not even close. With weak guards around him, I think he's going to get pushed around. We'll see.
@milton1448 I said Brewer was no Stephenson. Your last two comments were like you didn't read anything I said. I get "in general " my point was lighter players can still hold up against heavier ones. Even with an 80 pound difference. Brewer is listed at 295. I've heard people say his play weight sometimes dropped to like 285. Most DTs (not NT) are generally in the 300-315 range. So let's say for sake of argument, a 30lb difference. Guys can over come that. Brewer even addressed this by saying he lifts with his legs. He's short so he gets under and lifts with his legs. I get some guys will bully him but those guys generally bully most centers. Most centers are lighter. Conner, Ragnow, Humphries are different centers that everyone wants but are hard to get.
But who said Tua can't process all three levels of the field, identify check-downs (Tua did a better job checking down the ball when coverage by D was good, in 2023 than in 2022, and a lot of checkdowns were to his non-throwing side), audible out of bad plays (hard to audible with running all that motion presnap, especially down to the single digits of the playbook), can't identify blitzes (Tua had a 91.2 grade vs the blitz in 2023, per PFF, 87/128 988 yards, 11 TDs / 0 INTs, 91.2 passing grade (1st)), etc.? I've seen him doing all the things you claim he doesn't do on film and what do you mean when he goes to his second read, the ball usually sails and ends up picked? That's not true and when he threw the pick vs KC, it was very windy and very cold, and the route concepts/spacing on that play were not good on that play. Yeah Tua made a mistake, but it's not all on him.
It's a talk... but due to the speed of throw mostly and limited wrs in route and lack of audibles... it does take away potency and training of the skillset. Play vs blitz is a little different... Allen as an example.... not saying totally... but a little... it's reading for sure, but not so much progression reading but hot reading. I think the kid can, but we don't set the table to build it in him or accentuate that attribute. And the pressure does make the job harder esp. with few Wrs in routes.
