You have overlooked one thing. China has a large number of rocket launchers with a range of 200-400 kilometers. These rockets have precision guidance functions and are cheap. These are the first weapons to attack Taiwan. Dongfeng is used to fight the United States, not Taiwan. In addition, the entire Taiwan Strait is within the range of China's land-based anti-aircraft missiles, so air combat missile exchange scenes are unlikely to occur on such a large scale. Likewise, a fleet battle is unlikely, as both are within the range of land-based anti-ship missiles.
In reality the J20 would land and rearm and fire PL15 again but his server would crash that's why the J20 went to dogfight. J20 are not meant to dogfight and hence they were shot down by F16
Yep china has MLRS with 500km range. Like himars, but ones with much cheaper cost. They can cover whole of taiwan from the mainland basically. See PHL-16, or also known as PCL-191, with range on newer versions up to 500km. Or PHL-03, the older one with range up to 200km. China also has many other short range missiles like the WS(WeiShi) series, including B-611 with ranges from 150-400km. That's just a few known ones. China has dozens of variants on different missile types for different jobs and ranges. Taiwan is basically toast if anything pops off. China can manufacturer ten thousand a day or more if they wanted, including drones too. China wouldn't have to use any jets or ships or risk anything.. if USA comes close, long range anti ship missiles. China would be fighting inside their anti air umbrella, like s400 which can cover whole of Taiwan itself, along with its ship based anti air systems (whole navy worth), and the whole of the Chinese air force to also defend against any jets which do make it close enough to do, well, something. I dunno what usa can do except be like a fly that just annoys but can't really do any real damage or change the balance of power since usa will never attack Chinese mainland unless they want USA mainland to also be attacked. So usa can only try to pick off some ships or jets which will all be under China's A2AD umbrella and USA will have like a few jets vs China's whole military might which is just suicide. It will be like chinas total force concentration vs a few jets or few ships or few subs, which would just be usa throwing away those assets for no reason. China doesn't even need to do a physical blockade, they can just shoot rockets and missiles from the mainland itself to destroy any jets or ships trying to arrive or leave Taiwan Island.
host also overlooked Taiwan already has own manufactured mid and long range cruise missiles which able to reach most large cities included Beijing . also , there were no victory record say total air strike without ground troop could win a war.
Full of craps on this channel, I don't even need to listen further just the first stage you were talking about DF21 I have already laughed hard out 😂😂, DF21 range 2000km, it's a hypersonic land based missle target US aircraft carrier. 055 is not for Taiwan either, 055 and Liaoning will stay at easten Taiwan to stop US and Japanese to join.😊
💯. If China tries to launch a surprise invasion, they won't have the pieces in place to support the invasion beyond the first few days, let alone weeks or months. And if they geared up for a large invasion, we would see them moving fuel, ammo, missiles, aircraft, etc. to the area, and move more assets to the region as well.
Depends if Trump wins the election or not. Biden stated the US would participate in a military conflict if China dared to attack Taiwan. Trump says "America first" and isnt a fan of NATO and the rest of the US allies.
Russia's radar / electrics / air to air missiles really didn't catch up since Soviet collapsed. J-11 / J-16 are completely different beasts than Flankers now @@ylstorage7085
Cap, it's not "scaling down available platforms because we have limited server resources", it's "only 1/3 of total platforms are available due in part because it would take months to cram their entire force into one area while at the same time making surprise attacks impossible just like Russian the buildup prior to the Ukrainian War, because amassing all their force in one place would make other areas open to counter-attack and leave them without a reserve, and due to limited maintenance and logistical capacity". You gotta role play it a bit.
@@GalaxyCat001 Forces preservation strategy is a crucial thing for Taiwanese forces that will hide many of their assets in mountain hangers and secret bases to pervent early loss from Chinese first wake of percision missiles strike. So only having 1/3 of the forces present is not far from reallity.
came here to say this. their bunkers and mountain fortifications are no doubt extensive and deep. They've had years to prepare for a threat that they know WILL eventually come@@morrischen5777
Are the Perry class frigates bugged? they don't seem to ever fire SM-1's or SM-2's at anything. I saw another one of your videos with a few in it, and they didn't fire anything either.
have you ever seen the 76mm used in anti air/anti missile, go to any allied missile range and see our good the 76mm is against, ships use link 10/11 to talk to each other plus other networking tools, NCDS is not that bad@@grimreapers
How can't it catch much bigger vessel if it can hit the small fishing boat? The accident proved the missile acquiring formidable ability to strike the target.
I would say the stats of the airbattle is not modeled properly. The only fighter that can put on a fight is F16V for taiwan, and they are on the same level as Chinese J10C, and J10C is better on air 2 air due to better radar and better missile, but poorer on multi role purpose. J16 is the most powerful Chinese fighter outside of J20, and they are better than J15A, while J11B are being upgraded to J11BG with AESA radars again. I think what happened here is J10 are all modeled as J10A (early 2000s standard), which would be inferior to F16V, J11 are modeled as J11A (chinese built su27) or Su27 from the 90s (basically soviet base model su27), which are inferior to F16V, but in real life, J11A is a rare sight because very few were ever built and most they built are J11B, which are being upgraded to J11BG. in theory, PLAAF should decimate taiwan airforce without the help of J20, it is not a fair fight. China has the biggest fighter fleet with AESA radars and advanced missiles, only behind the USA. So the result doesnt make too much sense...J20 is probably modeled as a much inferior version of F22 or F35 I feel, which is subjective and fine. China also has specialist EW fighter the J15D, like the EA-18G Growler, very specialized and expensive and rare asset. JH7 is still being used, they are fighter bomber and can launch anti ship missiles. Taiwan do have more advanced domestic produced anti ship missiles. HQ9 is not related to S300, it has been debunked many times. but overall its a fun simulation.
hey cap you did a great job along with all grim reapers. I would love to see a war game on a simulated attack on guam. with modern assets. from my research, guam has nasaams and the iron dome. along with patriot. and man pads. and of course the new Land based AEGIS system. would be a fun watch
@@SunTzu2024 From what I can find online, it's an Israeli product but the Israeli company (Rafael) agreed to work with a US company (Raytheon) so the US could produce it too: "Iron Dome is the world’s most used multi-mission air defence missile system developed by Rafael Advanced Defence Systems, a state-owned defence technology company in Israel. The system was deployed by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) in March 2011 following the rocket attacks it had experienced in preceding years from Lebanon and Gaza." "The U.S. Army selected IRON DOME as an interim capability to counter cruise missiles. Two batteries were procured, and delivered in record time, to protect U.S. assets in contested areas. RAFAEL has partnered with Raytheon through a U.S. based Joint Venture - Raytheon Rafael Area Protection Systems (R2S) - to produce the IRON DOME in America. Currently at 70%, it is expected that in the near future, 100% will be Made in the U.S.A."
@@pike100 well, if you know anything about military news. You would know that Guam was testing the iron dome, along with other air defenses. iron dome was developed with major help from the United States.
Guam is far from china, they would need several tankers and lots of h-6 bombers with escorts, isr platforms, etc, They'd probably just missile strike it from the mainland even to minimal rffect
This ugly video title and content.. It's quite like saying. Can California or Florida independently resist American attacks? When the central government will suppress local rebellions is an internal matter of the china, and you really don't need to care about it. You should pay more attention to your own domestic affairs..
Also Chinese carriers (if they even are involved in the campaign) would probably only launch around 25 aircraft, not everything. They're steam-propulsion with electromagnetic catapults. That's like trying to run a supercomputer via a potato. It takes a lot of juice to launch, and you don't get as much juice with steam power. So the U.S. launches all aircraft. China launches only a few. Command and tactics completely favors the U.S., which has been waging constant war for near the past hundred years.
I don't even know why China would use its aircraft carriers vs Taiwan. There's only a short distance between the mainland and Taiwan. Just takeoff from the mainland. I'd only think the carriers might be stationed east of the island, deterring any aid to Taiwan. The danger there though is they would have to leave the safety of the mainland, e.g. mainland anti-air and anti-sub defenses. The carriers would be sitting ducks, and the U.S. could attack from Okinawa, Guam, or the Philippines. But IF the U.S. is only giving military and financial aid to Taiwan, not actively engaging in combat, maybe China's carriers would keep them at bay and shut off access to the island, preventing any aid to reach them. But the U.S. would pretty much have to decide to abandon Taiwan, which would be pretty senseless politically.
Oh and the thing about submarine warfare is. the faster you run the easier you are to find. So US subs likely won't even reach the battlefront until weeks in out of fear of tripping over the chinese version of SOSUS and getting ASW aircraft coming after them.
@@hughmungus2760 Subs could be and probably already are all over that area. Probably at any given time have 2-4 subs off the coast of China, North Korea, Iran, and both the eastern and western ports of Russia.
@@shaunholtthe east sea and waters around Taiwan are reletively too shallow for nuclear subs to operate. it is really dangerous for subs to go around Taiwan. if there is conflict, there going to be an air and a surface war
The distance between Taiwan and Chinese mainland is simply not necessary for ballistic missiles. Long-range rocket artillery and tactical missiles will be the first choice for attacking Taiwan. Taiwan does not have an Iron Dome system and does not have a missile defense system. Therefore, these weapons are more cost-effective.
China’s central military theatre is strategic reserve, you should at least count that in. It’s like a fifth of China vs Taiwan which is very unrealistic
Why 052c? China has only built a small number of this type of ship. Even if you reduce the scale, the number you add in the simulation has exceeded the total number of ships of this type built in reality, which is 6 ships. . .
We know China wins in this configuration. However, can they live with the losses and more important can they live with the Data the Western countries would gather from this?
@@team3am149 I feel like that was unnecessarily insulting. I was making a joke about the news stories from last month. Why did you respond this way? Was it to deliberately belittle me?
@@NWRefund Making a joke? You posted the same thing across multiple videos, I hardly think you were trying to make a joke. Don’t complain about being belittled on the internet if you’re going to do the same thing. The victim complex is strong with this one.
@@team3am149 Yeah, God forbid I make the same joke multiple times. My bad. I should expect to run into the same people on the internet over and over, since it's so small.
@@team3am149 Thank you for spending some of your own personal time pointing out the errors of my ways to me. I'll be careful about jokes in the future so that I do not draw such ire from folks in the comments section. I didn't realize that bad jokes deserved such a strong rebuke, but you learn something new every day!
The technical stuff at the beginning gives the video more meaning imo. Thanks for all the wargames, I really appreciate that you try to improve as you gain skill, new mods, and game updates.
China has MLRS with 500km range. Like similar to himars, but ones with much cheaper cost and longer range. They can cover whole of taiwan from the mainland easily. And that's just one variant, China has dozens of variants with different missiles and shells for every role. See PHL-16, or also known as PCL-191, with range on newer versions up to 500km. Or PHL-03, the older one with range up to 200km. China also has many other short range missiles like the WS(WeiShi) series, including B-611 with ranges from 150-400km. That's just a few known ones. China has dozens of variants on different missile types for different jobs and ranges. Taiwan is basically toast if anything pops off. China can manufacturer ten thousand a day or more if they wanted, including thousands of drones a day too. China wouldn't even have to use any jets or ships or risk anything.. if USA even dares to comes close, long range anti ship missiles will quickly show USA the error in their strategy.. China would be fighting inside their anti air umbrella, like s400 which can cover whole of Taiwan itself, along with its ship based anti air systems (whole navy worth), and the whole of the Chinese air force to also defend against any jets which do make it close enough to do, well, something. I dunno what usa can do except be like a fly that just annoys but can't really do any real damage or change the balance of power since usa will never attack Chinese mainland unless they want USA mainland to also be attacked. So usa can only try to pick off some ships or jets which will all be under China's A2AD umbrella and USA will have like a few jets vs China's whole military might which is just suicide. It will be like chinas total force concentration vs a few jets or few ships or few subs, which would just be usa throwing away those assets for no reason. China doesn't even need to do a physical blockade, they can just shoot rockets and missiles from the mainland itself to destroy any jets or ships trying to arrive or leave Taiwan Island.
Cap - in any retaliatory follow-up involving the US - assuming the US has a few C-17s at Kadena - a flight of those loaded up with Rapid Dragon targeting the Chinese Naval assets could clear the Taiwan Straight for the arrival of the US 7th Fleet. The C-17 has a range of approx 2400 nautical miles so flying 300 miles west out of Kadena, targeting the Chinese vessels and unleashing a barrage of LRASMs at the Chinese would certainly be feasible. JASSM-ERs could additionally be used to target Chinese airbases in the region - again, softening up targets prior to any US Naval assets entering the area...
In reality, I do not think a major air battle will be fought between mainland China and Taiwan because all air fields on Taiwan will be swept in the first hour and constantly revisited by drones all the time. In other words, very few Taiwan jet fighters will be able to be up in the air.
This isn’t a battle of attrition like Ukraine. It’ll be a battle of speed. If Taiwan can hold off for long enough, the US counterattack on the invasion fleet would be devastating. The longer China waits the worse their chances get.
Taiwan is well fortified with fortresses all over the mountains. Even if the airforce and the navy gets overwhelmed, the Chinese still would have to get the landing ships to the shore. I guess the Taiwanese would fight just as determined as the Ukrainians
England was invaded only once, by William the Conqueror in 1066. In modern terms, the French, the Germans, the Spanish etc all tried and died. That is with a water barrier of only 40 miles. Plus, China has never been a “Naval power”. Taiwan might not “win” but the Chinese will never plant their flag on Taiwan again.
uh, where did you get the information about ROC air force? Because we actually have more fighters, we have 140xF-16 A/B block 20, 66xF-16 C/D block 70, 54xM-2000, 129xF-CK-1, and 43xF-5 (according to wikipedia and ROC air force website), I have no idea why the data are different in different languages if we are searching the same thing, but I am pretty sure my data is more accurate since it is publish by the ROC air force website.
None of those matter, because the airbases will be destroyed immediately. What survives the missile strike and interceptors won't be able to take off or land on cratered runways.
@@lol3ndir It seems like Cap is using wiki as well, and I also checked on the ROC air force website too, I am pretty sure the data in the video is incorrect
Taiwan does have quite formidable supersonic sea skimming ASMs, launched from a large number of missile boats and corvettes. It would not be so one-sided.
Unless Taiwan pre-emptively struck, more ASMs might not help at first. In the game scenario, China's navy did nothing after their initial missile launch. Of course saving them to target a followup invasion fleet could help.
For these simulations I would like to see you add in something to simulate the Taiwanese tactical SAM systems. Just a battery or two randomly placed on the eastern (northern) coast would change the dynamics of the battle since they would buy time for more Taiwanese aircraft to get in the air and work together instead of just get up launch missiles and die. There are a bunch of models to choose from you could make what you add different for each simulation to account for survivability.
I'd like to see this with someone sitting in as overlord. that way you could have ships sitting in port for 30 minutes or so, giving them time to start up and get underway. if they get hit while they are sitting ducks, then they don't get activated. this would also allow American assets in the area to arrive piecemeal. I feel like we'd have a good idea that this is coming, and would have a few destroyers or cruisers loitering in the area. it would take some time to get CSG 1 or 9 to the area, sure, but that doesn't mean 7th fleet wouldn't have *something* nearby to throw at the Chinese. currently, both CVNs 70 and 71 are in the Philippine sea, along with one of Japan's Hyuga class helicopter carrier/destroyers having them some war games. also, something else you could do to spice this up in the future, if you so wish, is to have one or both of Japan's JMSDF Izumo-class destroyer/carriers there, as they are being repurposed and refitted into actual carriers, and currently can hold up to 28 F-35Bs. as it is right now, those F35s are being operated by USMC pilots from the Japanese ships, as Japan is still working on acquiring more F-35s.
No obviously not. Especially without US support - but given how their vessels will need to get close to the mainland their ships won't be able to do very much without having to deal with a barrage of anti-ship missiles. The question we should be asking though is how much will the PRC have to pay to take the island from the ROC.
If done right, mostly just the muntions cost. I ran a 1 for 1 simulation in DCS of a first strike (at 1/8th speed so my computer didn't explode) and approximately 90% of Taiwanese hardware was destroyed each go. 90% of ground assets mind you, it was 100% of their navy and airforce. After something like that, PRC heavy lift could move a few battalions to the island every hour. Obviously this is an over simplification; it assumes no response from the US, perfect intelligence from Bejing, and doesn't account for any Taiwanese attempted counter-attacks. That said they theoretically could seize control within a few days.
@@92HazelMocha You should use COMMAND Modern Operations for "serious" war game scenarios. DCS just doesn't have the sensor simulation and database that COMMAND has. Even then, take the results with a grain of salt. There are MANY factors to war.
@@92HazelMocha It's very unlikely that a full-scale invasion could be done without casualties in the real World, as long as the defender is motivated. Defending is always easier than attacking, and there are lots of surprises to be prepared.
@@Nimmermaeroh of course not. But the scale of the casualties would be probably more akin to the US invasion of Iraq than Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
@@cadetrenewI mean the problem is that there is no real hard data on modern Chinese sensors. If you want to wargame a set in the 90's or early 2000's, there's plenty of information, but the PLA has modernized multiple times since then. China has sensor platforms we don't know much about, especially in terms of capabilities, so in that regard, DCS is perfectly adequate. For the sake of simplicity I just largely ignored it for the purposes of a simulated first strike.
In reality, Taiwan has over 6000 surface to air missiles mostly on mobile launchers as well as over 1200 anti-ship missiles (many supersonic) currently using NATO’s LINK-16 system (U.S can aim for Taiwan)
Cap, Admiral corner has a Spruance class mod. That is a Kidd class. Kidd was built for Iran pre revolution based on the Spruance but optimized differently. but weren't completed before the regieme changed. They were sold to Taiwan
@@grimreapers - Maybe try the Bainbridge then? The issue is the OHP class is a single launcher, the Spruance/Kidd class has twin launchers. Hence the throw weight of the Kidd fleet would be off by half when you use the OHP class as a substitute. Bainbridge and early Tico class had the twin arm SM2 launchers. However, when you think of it, the PRC would swarm them either way. The only difference would be the amount of missiles intercepted before inevitably getting sunk....Hence, moot point.
Using Perry class to aim Kidd class is not fair. The Perry’s have one single rail missile launcher and one CIWs, where the Kidds have two dual rail launchers two ciws, and better radar and comms.
Yes! Follow up vid!👍 In the center Ford Class Carrier with F/A-18F Super Hornet's with AIM-120D's and Harpoons! On each side, LHD representing USS Blue Ridge with few Helicopters, other side America Class LHA with F-35B's 10 with LRASM 10 with AIM-260's! Surrounding them up front 1 Arleigh Burke with 2 Ticonderoga's on each side! On the flanks/sides 2 Arleigh Burke's 1 on each side! In the back same as front, 1 Arleigh Burke with 2 Ticonderoga's on each side creating a circle around "LCC-19"/LHD, Ford Class Carrier, and America Class LHA! Essentially representing The 7th Fleet however with Ford Class instead!🙏
I think if Taiwan knew the US weren't going to help they would have to attack first when they start seeing the Chinese build up (Hit before you get hit). Could you run that scenario?
The reality of morale , training and weapons quality was not a consideration in this model, the Russian and Ukrainian conflict has taught us these are hugely influential factors.
Taiwan actually have their own made supersonic anti-ship missile Hsiung Feng III and Hsiung Feng II. Chinese navy are within the range. Any way it's interesting to see how everything is going on. I'm looking forward to see the simulation with US help.
If you are from Taiwan your country needs EPIRUS microwave systems and cheap small stealth submarine like darpa armed with black shark torpedo and lot's of ATACMS and more of more javelin and with some jet power UAV that carry on missile and SM-3 missile it's God list
The PLA is extremely underscaled , and the Wikipedia numbers on both sides are completely wrong. I recommend using something like sinodefenseforum, as we’ve all heard that “Wikipedia isn’t a credible source”
You guys should have taken the trainer aircraft section on wikipedia into account for Taiwan. There are more F-16s and Mirages listed there. Dont know if it would have made any difference tho
Wow. That would be such a costly victory no matter who won. ...but impractical because, as other have stated, everyone would notice China organizing for the assult.
It might be worth modeling the PAVE PAWS. On Day 1, this would have to be the primary objective of the PLAARF. As for US involvement, I think at least 12 hours would go by before carrier task forces or Marine QRFs could be realistically expected to make kinetic contributions.
Actually interesting how china has upped its game. (If all that stuff works irl). Would be interesting to see respective theatre commands go against: 1] Japanese and South Koreans 2] Indians Coz it looks like those are the only countries that could stand up to this stuff.
although I know that this is just scripted battle, but when Cap said "there's no chance" I felt somewhat nostalgic back in 2022, yknow that real world happen when everyone said the exact same thing with Russia lol
@@ZweiZwolfI mean c'mon, propagandist never tell a true story and never will even democracies countries like us despite doing their best hiding some stuff there's always a leak somewhere but when talking about "closed" propagandist countries I put my doubt there
@@anggisuwandi2404 Why would you doubt China having a significantly larger industrial base than Russia? China has roughly 10x the population and broad recognition as "the factory of the world", so it's odd to imagine that Russia could possibly be anywhere close. Especially as the Russian economy is more about energy and food sales, which command lower value than Chinese intermediate and manufactured goods.
This scenario's results were pretty easy to predict. Humans should have tried to help the underdog. Thanks for the preview though. Always love Grim Reapers vids.
Great video, just a few critiques. I think parts of your analysis were off based on your premise. Chinese bombers wasted payloads on ships that were already blown up. Realistically, with both bombers and ships there, one would have targeted the ships and the other the airfields to prevent a full scrambling of taiwanese aircraft. The other major point is that you said China got a bloody nose from losing so many aircraft, however you aren't considering that you intentionally prevented them from retreating to re-arm and forced them to fight to the death. I understand this was due to the limited system resources, however you should be upfront that it's a forced outcome. Otherwise the J20s and others would have been unloading their missiles en masse then turning around to re-arm and come back out, and would have suffered significantly fewer losses.
I would be curious to see, what impact a "european" support package comprising meteor missiles and a dozen IRIS-T SLMs would have in the scenario. Also, I think that this large scale engagement is kind of unrealistic. Even if China would go on an offensive like this, I think the Taiwanese would just duck and cover in the beginning and start harassing the Chinese in the air later. Therefor I would be much more interested in seeing maybe a fight of 2 F16V against 4 J20s (all with human pilots), where the J20s perform high altitude patrols, whereas the F16Vs come in low covered by the mountains. I think this kind of engagement would be much more on point to what would actually happen.
Yes, because in a mass attack, NONE of those planes are taking off or landing once the runways are destroyed. In a mass attack scenario, China would have something like 5,000 missiles they could throw at Taiwan's military and infrastructure.
@@shaunholt yea they can but those planes don’t get stored on those highways, they are stored in those airport hangers Any doesn’t matter how fast they can patch those holes, second-wave and third-wave attacks will arrive in minutes not days, you have to realize China is just 100 miles away from Taiwan, it is possible for even air-filled fast boats to reach Taiwan, and China has long-range satellite-guided rockets which can constantly bomb those airfields
@@shaunholt that assumes you already have fighters on those roads when the strikes happen. Which would take hours to move by truck at best. Theres also no way to predict which airbases get hit or how many missiles make it through. You also can't pre-position fighters on roads because they'd just get destroyed before they can take off.
I always watch the research stuff as i find it more interesting, to be honest the rest of the videos turns into a load of dogfights anyway irrespective of the actual aims of the mission.
Do you reckon even IRL, if the trajectory of the hypersonic was on course, but the ciws took it out, the kinetic force of the missil3 would still destroy the boat by sheer force? Like a mach 6 shrapnel strike
