I think hero should have just gone a little bigger on flop (175-200) and turn (400-425), and then you have a river jam for half pot. Given the 3-bet preflop, villain should have fewer flushes here. As Bart said, the only jacks that get to the river like this are flushes anyway. A block bet makes no sense because we can't fold to a raise, and I do think we can get a crying call from a two pair (or set that played scared/tricky) that may otherwise check back. We're gonna lose sometimes, but by using geometric sizing, we're maximizing our value when ahead.
I don't understand why it would be so difficult for a villain that is very loose and likes to call so much to end up with a Jack here? Especially given the small 3 bet, flop, and turn bets, I would give him at least all AJo, AJs, KJs maybe even some KJo combos if he over calls those as well pre. Other than that fully agree with the logic!
@@Jermo484 If KJo is a possibility it kills the hand. If KJo is in then so is AJo. This makes 24 combinations for a straight. TT+AK+AQ+ATs = 18 combinations. There may be some flushes and some more straights with Jxs which makes QQ a pretty big underdog. It would put hero in a extremely difficult spot on the river since he is out of position. I wonder why there is no talk about KJ. It's the elephant in the room and should be addressed.
@@Rechnerstrom There's a truly shocking amount wrong with your post. If he can have KJo, why can't he have ATo? Betting rivers isn't vaguely as simple as just "bet when we beat more than we lose to" - you have to consider so many other things like the fact that he might just call with a straight given the flush completed while he'd likely bet bigger (and we'd call) if checked to. Not to mention that AJ and KJ at least sometimes raise flop or turn for various reasons and flush draws very frequently raise one of the streets. It's a very clear bet/fold and the blocker size is perfect because it's super low risk to get value out of tons of hands that are going to check back.
I'm not betting the river. It's interesting that the caller calls him a "rec" and the host thinks he's a clown for calling pre...... but we're at the river and suddenly he can't have hearts or a jack. If he's such a "station" like the caller says, he can have JJ and all kinds of flushes. Needless to say, the caller was never losing this hand when @ :34 "I'm $1550 effective with the villain and I have him covered". 🤣
@@montezuma6962 calling stations don't just call literally every single pair in every single situation ever, that's silly. He'd have folded or raised a ton of hands that beat hero on the flop or turn, but basically every value hand that's worse and can call would still be there by the river.
I feel like the villain has more Jacks than we give credit for. JT/QJ/KJ/AJ are all pairs plus SD or better on the turn. He’s a supposed fish so he could have J9s for all we know too.
Middle pair plus gutter should be folding the turn, especially with a flush draw present, to even a fairly small sizing. It's a garbage hand with almost no equity. I mean, sure, the loose VIP might call, but in theory those should all be folds besides KJ, AJ and JThh. Like JT not hearts calling the turn to even less than half pot is a massive punt - it's not even getting close to 20% against any value and if hero is bluffing, the "plus straight draw" is pretty irrelevant and his bluffs will have some equity.
Logic is just collapsing in on itself with this analysis. Reality has escaped through a hidden door. Rocks are floating, squirrals are talking, and every road we take leads to nowhere. If the fkn King on the river blocks the K-J why wouldnt the 10 on the flop block the 10-10? From our perspective its the same amount of unknown Kings and Tens. And he is calling all the way. And on top of that there are no jacks which means its more possible he has one of them. This is another case of people taking blockers too far. If i played this hand the exact same way im getting jammed on the river or called and beat 95 percent of the time and ive been playing over 20 years. Sometimes i wonder if training sites give wrong info on purpose. There is just no fkin way.... Targeting the 10 10. Give me a break. Everything bart said to target is blocked just as much and more than 4 missing jacks. He even said Ace Queen. Huh? There is 3 queens gone now all of a sudden A Q is more likely than K-J cause of the king on the river. I just.... Sometimes I... I should have just wrote the first paragraph.... Crazy talk.... This is crazy talk 😂
Just count the combos. Obviously with QQ you block a lot of two pairs. But you beat just so many of them. There's only 3 combos of AQ, but also 3 of TT, etc. You just need 50% equity to value. Sometimes you will lose to a J or flush, but a recreational player would never fold two pairs. He played well imo.
@@clementl.784 the guy snap calls and flips over J-3 off. I say wtf why was you even in the hand!? He sheepishly shrugs his shoulders and as he is raking in my chips he mutters I thought you were bluffing. So let's count them starting with clubs J-3, J-4, J-5, J-6, this is gonna take a while.... Lol
@@josheisert8380 following your argument, the guy who calls flop and turn with J3o certainly also calls the river with Ax or Kx. So, let's count: A2o, A3o,...
@@josheisert8380you think the guy is cold calling a 3bet from the big blind, calling flop, and calling turn with J3o? Let’s be serious. How many combos of hands containing a jack is he even cold calling? Maybe the one combo of QJs, 3 of KJs, 3 of AJs, 3 of JTs. That’s 10 combos. He could also have 3 combos of AQ, 3 of KQ, 3 of TT, 3 of 44. That’s already more combos and doesn’t even factor in any AT, AK, or any random ace that just, as you said, “thought he was bluffing.” Whole point of the block bet sizing is to get calls from those hands, maximizing your value when you’re good, and fold to a jam, in which case you’re almost always not good.
Bart, you love to add in that “but remember! You have to be able to get called by worse” every time a block bet gets brought up, and nearly every time i kinda go.. yeah duh(respectively of course). Anyone with any sense who’s thinking about blocking a scary river is always trying to get value with a strong but not nutted value hand, and in live poker with calling stations everywhere, it’s quite effective a good chunk of the time
Well played hand by hero. Honestly not sure I would have found the bet on river but explanation by Bart on how Villain doesn't have many Js in range made a ton of sense.
I hear everything you’re saying …. But I’m still thinking g check the river … AJ J 10 J9 of hearts and any heart draw ??? Maybe I’m still too sacred money 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
It’s interesting though because we naturally assume the run out is bad purely because of the better hands that beat us now, but when you deconstruct the hand you can still absolutely maximise your value. So typical even of me to just check and even potentially fold some donkey shoves on me here. Which is what I feel like would have happened if I took hero’s line here😂😂😂😂
This is what we need to work on, how to play vs VIPs, that’s where the loose money is They only recognize absolute hand strength, don’t care about the board or hero’s range at all VIP will call half pot with any value hand Seems like the most easy bet fold ever really
NH by caller, esp river value. Sizing sets used to be let them catch up on dry static flops, and charge them on wet dynamic ones. Now it's all keep them in. Interesting. I'm old school and think that 3 way flop hit a big calling range and a big bet was in order, esp outta position, but obv that's just me. WP.
Since there's only one Queen left in the deck, I think you're overestimating how many two pair hands he has here. I think K-J is a big part of his range, but so are 10-10, 4-4. Maybe A-K and A-10. If he has the case Queen, you can add in A-Q, K-Q, Q-10, but also Q-J. He also could have a bunch of hearts here. I think he folds J-9 on the turn (or preflop). I think the two big questions are how many low hearts is he calling with preflop, and how many two pair hands does he actually end up with here. It feels like set over set to me. I don't think that many two pair hands show up here.
@@datsumcrzysht Not a calling station. This turned is called with KJ by a lot of calling stations, and a lot of live play guys who always slow play the nuts.
Interesting bet sizing from the caller, esp on flop and river. He bets small oop into two people with the nuts on a dynamic board on the flop. I'd def size up here like bart mentioned. Turn bet is ok I guess, the river bet is questionable imo. Now he's sort of block/thin value betting when he's hand isn't looking too good on a Kh riv. So many hands beat him now. What was he's plan if opponent jams? Interesting hand.
Isn't AJs a typical hand villain has as well? If KJs is in the mix, then AJs should def be right? And wouldn't fold for small flop or turn bets here. I don't understand why there are almost ruled out. 3x AJs, 3x KJs, ATh beats you, 3x TT, 9x AK, 3x ATs, 3x AQ you beat and will call. As played, and depending on the level of stationing, the river bet is great to get calls from AK & TT, which are the majority of hands. Given small flop bet means AK, AJ, AT are all almost always still in, turn bet should be bigger imo. There is also the psychological thing that a station who hits after chasing is even less likely to fold. Nice hand!
I know. This is where I’m hung up on this hand also. I don’t think he has TT. That comment about the K being a heart is really weird for me right now. Would love a logical explanation. By the same token. He’s a total fish and doesn’t know what he’s saying lol.
If he has AhTx he blocks all flushes on the river but dont block as many valuehands if its a Ks. But dont forget, it was against a VIP so he could have been saying random stuff out loud that dont really make a ton of sense, it happens.
I hate the flop sizing personally. I think I go 220 on flop. 125 just gets ANY gutter or backdoor flush draw to call because you're out of position. If you were in position, maybe 150 or 165. I HATE the flop sizing. Hate hate hate it hahaha but thats just me
@@draewilly there are two opponents. And their drawing out cards are adding to your counter outs! So: you're facing 18+ outs! That's little more than 8-10%, isn't it. Plus, if someone has lower set...Because of that, a pot size would be a cool flop bet! Finish him off there and no worry about nightmare turn and river cards. H was lucky.
