It's not like he has spidey-senses or anything here. He's just calling out the ONE HAND that beats him and just had to call because it was the optimal EV+ play.
He was saying the only hand that beats his hand aloud because he couldn’t believe he was beat. At this level they are only 3 betting Daniel on the river with the nuts!
There's only one possible hand that he looses too, which is unlikely. In hindsight it's easy too say what he should have done, but anyone would call this.
Happened to me on a final table, heads up as well. Guy shoved pre with Queen ten and had me covered. Same run out as well. Ace on flop and king and jack on turn and river.
I know that feeling....by checking the flop or not raising the turn Daniel decided he'd rather risk winning a big pot instead of a small one, especially on that dry flop. This is why when someone says "why did you bet so much" with a set, as soon as that Broadway draw hit I would've popped a raise...but that's why Daniel is Daniel and I'm just some shmuck playing 2-5 at my local casino
You cant fold with second nuts if the actuon went like this. Any set would shove here because no set is folding here. AK would probably shove as well even though thats mostly player oriented.
For those that can't realize how he was able to call his hand; it's a massive overbet on the river. There are only a few possible hands that he could have. Q, 10 is the most likely, given how the hand played out. Daniel here slow played himself here. It's specifically a runout that Daniel (or any poker player) never really gets full value or gets all-in owned. It's nearly an impossible hand to get away from unless you know the person's hole cards (like a Postle situation).
Correct me if I’m wrong pros, but I think the only 2 cards that guy could catch to win was a K and a J….in whatever order. Nothing else does it for him, which means Daniel was about 98.4% chance to win after the flop. That’s a tough break!
Not a bad call. He read it, just couldn't bring himself to lay it down. Played the hand correctly. Hard fold when you flop the trips an your opponent gets lucky on the river.
Just had Q2 in a straddle. Flop comes 22A.. guy leads into me. Call… turns a 9… bets into me again… call… river 9… big river bet again… I call… K9 got there lol. But I still won $400 on the day even w that horrendous beat. I love straddling in 1-2 games bc I can typically splash around and seem like a maniac when really my chips are rarely in danger bc most people don’t play very well at that limit and you can steal a lot of pots in a lot of spots
Daniel .. very very rarely calls a hand wrong. I’m absolutely surprised he didn’t fold. That’s what happens when you override what your inner voice is telling you.
The amount of times Aces get cracked cause of people slow playing them is wild. At least make them pay to see cards. If they fold. Good, at least you won some chips and didn't lose a lot of chips.
The villain didn't show any real strength until the river. That should have set off all KINDS of bells and whistles in Negreanu's head. The smart play would have been to just call the river bet, and lose that extra $10.5k. The check on the flop was also a mistake, as it gave absolutely no information to Negreanu about what the villain had. He should have either bet the flop small, to see where he was at, or RAISED the turn card to (again) see where he was at. Letting the villain get to the river cheap was a HUGE mistake, and calling the all-in was also an obvious mistake, even if it wasn't for much more than Nagreanu's raise. At this point, the villain is telling him that he's not afraid of the nuts, for obvious reasons. I get the incentive to trap with a flopped set of aces, especially against two pair or a lesser set, but letting the villain get past the flop basically unhindered was a gigantic mistake. Given Negreanu's normally acute ability to read players, I have to imagine this was just a momentary brain fart on his part. Either that, or there were other things on his mind while he was playing this game.
Daniel checking the turn to his opponent was def a mistake, buddy tried to steal thinking Daniel was weak wich made Daniel think he allready had something and that would put buddy on anything but Q,10, the second mistake was Daniel not reraising the bet, third mistake was reraising a value bet and 4th mistake was calling all in re-reraise without the nutts. 😮
The other 92% of the time the J doesn’t come, the other guy probably bets again and Negreanu extracts max value. Even the call on the river is correct over a large sample size cuz he can still beat AK or lower set.
Like..the way the play went he could have had KJ, 4set, 7set and mahbe even jset Some silly A4,A7 at least suited, and a bunch of bluffs like K10, J10 (I'm not sure about all of them cause I don't have the positions anyway, but Daniel has the second nuts...he beats everything beside these specific 16combos of q10, from which arguably the suited ones also sometimes raise)
I don't think he's 3bet jamming river with KJ. Not if he's an at all competent player. He could have some smaller sets potentially.. Also, he could have some bluffs, but 3-bet river bluffs are fairly rare.
@@omni-kinggaming5512against an amatour maybe but vs a pro calling 2nd nuts in such a deep pot is a mistake I would say. 3bb before flop and 150bb in total. Not worth more than 75bb for a call.
imo raising on the turn would’ve been the move, make him pay more upfront if he wants to see the river. There wasn’t much for someone to want to call with after the flop given the credible assumption that he didn’t have the last ace in his hand. So I feel like he needed to at least check the flop. But calling the turn was playing it a little too slow from my perspective.
