Dude I swear I'm so thankful for your Content. I've been following you for years now. Found you in reddit years back and your info/channel is a hidden gem😊
Even 0dte is always wrong. 10 delta gets hit literally 25% of the time. Because expected move and vix is so low. Spx move way more than 20 per day than 25% of the time
Remember, probably if being ITM is different than the probability of a touch, which is loosely 2x delta. So what you’re seeing actually directly aligns with that. 10 delta has ~10% PITM and ~20% PTouch.
Without any charting or struggle, one should be able to buy/sell and es contract, use zero DTE probability of touch. For example, I go long and only aim to hit the 80 pct POT for that day, and maybe stop out if that goes under 60 pct. Could this work if you stuck to it religiously ? Obviously, 80 pct chance i get my target mean 20 percent of time I do not, the key is to limit the loss side. The hard part is knowing when to cut losses.
you'd have to test your system - there's no easy answer in trading. as you point out, the loss management in that kind of system will be absolutely vital.
Possibly dumb question here, but if you are trading a neutral strategy where each side has a delta of 0.12 does your total probability of finishing in the money increase to a 0.24 delta? For instance a long iron condor spread
Really depends, as per usual. If you go 30DTE but are at a 1.00 delta, then you’ll experience less theta decay than if you were at 90DTE and ATM. As per usual, in trading broad generalizations miss to much detail.
Literally too much, this may seem ok to you at your maths comfort zone but many find this overwhelming.Thats why theres so little engagement on this one. I think its better if you explain each part first.Seeing it all up there at once is overwhelming. Or perhaps focus more of key ones that matter. Not all of this relevant to us as we dont have high level maths.
Appreciate the feedback - video just launched 30min ago so we'll give it some time to find it's people : ) To your point, not all of the content will connect with each person, that's okay. I create things for a range of skillsets. For this, if the math is overwhelming, focus on the concepts: Delta is close to PITM near-term and differentiates more widely the further out in time we go.
what's up dude. im currently getting my M/S in finance and im a derivatives trader at TD Ameritrade. I have no life as well and for the most part understand the excel commands/formulas you used for your calculations. is there any way you can reach out to me and we can chat. I have some questions on how you built your model. Hope you see this!
also, the coefficient of correlation you coded in think script is awesome. Ive got questions about a lot and if I could pick your brain that would be pretty cool
Hey man, feel free to drop any questions here - happy to take a look. I try to answer as much as I can in a public forum so others can learn alongside the good questions as well.
