I was wondering about this, I just assumed I couldn't find the Q&A session, but if there wasn't one that makes me pretty nervous. Also it was interesting he said that layoffs aren't affecting the job market when they obviously are.
@@dalekim the pressure must be overwhelming i think if he went heavily into it, might have had a pretty negative catalyst and he doesn't want to tip people off just how much they plan to cut, i think the goal is to keep everyone cool while they panic behind the scenes trying to come up with solutions, it's just buying some time, it sometimes works
we are nearing the end of this Bull market cycle and a Super cycle, whatever u do, do NOT buy during all-time highs, i repeat, do NOT buy during all-time highs, u seem like the type that would, don’t worry i’m up 23.5x on NVDA
Dept level is at an all time high. Residential rents have doubled in many markets. Mortgages have been renewing at higher interest rates. Traveling is down. I was downtown last night and full of restaurants were empty on a Friday night! Commercial and personal bankruptcies are skyrocketing. Unemployment will continue to increase. People from all kinds of industries tell me they are making major layoffs. Even engineers are having problems finding jobs. Most economists think we will hit 5% unemployment by the end of the year. Most traditional indicators are telling us we’re going into a recession. Most Canadian economist tell us the US GDP growth is about to contract down from 2.9% to 1.0%. Many American economists don’t want to use the word recession before the election! At this point, a recession is inevitable. Soft landings are always promised but never achieved. It will be difficult for the Fed to start printing money with persistent 3% inflation. FYI, in October 2007, the WSJ stated that the American economy was too resilient to fall. Two months later, the Great Recession began with a 50% loss in the markets. Even Apple, which had just released the iPhone, lost 60% in the following months.
@@rioriggs3568 yes our down is empty too, I m small business owner and this summer is really slow but how last retail sales report I came so good I don’t get it
@@lobodorji3217 The last retail report was misleading. Almost all car dealerships got hit by a cyberattack (TDK Global software) the last two weeks of June. Therefore plenty of June car sales were finally closed in July and that caused retail sales for that month to be wrongfully positive.
I created a GDI (gross domestic income - a better way to measure production as the GDP has too many fudge factors) spreadsheet for the last 6 years and I see that the real increase in income is about 40% since 2019. This is much higher than the 2% target of the FED for inflation. (Actually the goal of the FED should be deflation as this would account for population growth, but that is another topic.) They are cooking the books. It is even worse when realizing that the increase in GDI does not account for 10-20 million illegals that are benefitting in one way or another and that is counted in the GDI figures as well. We are gonna face a serious reckoning.
I am a course member and an investor in House Hack and I can't have enough of listening to Kevin. I am so poor at this moment but one day this situation might change because I am listening to Kevin. What he is saying now is literally how the rich are pulling another one on the little people
So you’ve never been to a Wingstop where people are eating carrots, celery, and buffalo wings with their beer? Or you’ve never been to a Super Bowl party where there’s carrots ranch dip and beer?? 🎉
This is hilarious. For the last two years, Kevin has been hoping for rate cuts - all the while people were saying that rate cuts are bad because that means that the Fed is panicking… But Kevin still wanted those rate cuts. Now the cuts are finally coming, and Kevin starts to panic
Hey Kev, thanks for making and posting this one. Seemed real. Only hang up I have is that you seem to think the reserve would or should do anything they can to prevent a recession, including potentially enshrining additional inflation. I think the reserve desires market repricing as things are clearly bubbled in some areas and starved in others. Recessions reprice.
So if Kevins Thesis is correct, with reduction of cap x and lay offs, how much do supply chains protect us from infaltion? Supply Chains are not immune to layoffs. If we see down scaling of goods sold, the PP from large scale manifactoring is gone, thus forcing companies to raise prices to keep margins where they are. Thus leading into the consumer not having the income, AND cost of living / goods increasing.
Love it... When done in the comfort of your own home, drinking makes you more comfortable for conversation and enjoyment with moderation. Another note, the biggest FUD of all is not you... It's the people who are saying everything is okay! ✌️
Kevin youre a real one. Thank you for your concerns and i think youre right on this one. I like the microphone. Brings back your old sound again. Although one video was a little weird when you first changed.
Kevin are you with Aurora you should check out what they have been working on to Automate the trucking industry. Most of the big players in trucking are invested and partnered with them. It just makes the deflationary argument make sense.
Kevin is the best! Thank you for such helpful and detailed content based on the most recent data, news, and FACTS. Kevin always follows the facts and makes conclusions from them. If the facts change, he changes. And his predictions are right a hell of a lot more often than they are wrong.
We are moving out of California next month as well! My husband is a trucker and they have been putting their checks back into the business account coz it’s been real bad
Gm! U are right, recession is coming. But when the stock market turns, is the catalyst next gdp? I think we have only weeks left before big crash, around October/November.
What does it matter if productivity increases if no one can afford to buy what is produced? Companies relying on AI to grow are going to produce themselves into bankruptcy. Economies are about people, not products.
Through all history there have been people who faught against productivity and efficiency improvements and they were always proven wrong, the world keeps getting better, humans have the highest standards of living today than in all human history. Eventually machines will be making everything for us for free and all people will have a work optional life and total freedom.
@@ocvegasproperty Competition is what keeps prices low. Monopolies can charge as much as they think people are willing to spend, which will never be enough to sustain an AI operated business since people have no money TO spend. Fewer jobs means a smaller economy, there's no getting around that.
@@Lennis01 your logia is flawed. Monopolies are illegal for a reason unless you’re the government, police, public’s dictation etc… People need to innovate and stay ahead of it to Add value and make profit. There’s no stopping that. Take an Econ class or two.
@@ocvegasproperty How can people innovate in an era when people themselves are no longer valued and cannot hope to compete? The people running the economy are living in a fiction. Technology has been improving throughout history because human beings have remained a central part of the process. We have been the driving force, which is the foundation on which all economic theory is derived. Human beings, sadly, have plateaued. Short of genetically engineering ourselves to be smarter than our own computers (which isn't going to happen for political reasons), there's no course we can take that can maintain the current trajectory without the majority of people being left behind. Governments will then be forced to give these people stipends to sustain the illusion of a real economy or eliminate them. Good times, eh? On the subject of monopolies, of course they are illegal. And yet they exist anyway. Centralization has been the trend for the past century. I have seen no serious policies in government that can reverse this trend. Politicians profit from the status-quo.
Unless companies invest heavily in automation, productivity is not going to go up. If companies do invest heavily in automation unemployment is going to go up. We are at a pinnacle right now and it's a no win situation for employees or companies. The biggest fallacy in corporate America is that if you give your employee's pizza twice a year they are going to increase productivity by 10%. Some people work to get the weekly paycheck and that's it.
Kevin, Kevin sir Kevin, The remaining of the year expect crazy hiring 😅 Why? Tax business such H&R Block, Turbo, Liberty, Jackson and more small tax devices throughout the USA 🇺🇸, then holiday season Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas and New years, shipping and receiving warehouses, don’t forget black Fridays. But those are just temps jobs-not Permanent IMO lots of confusion coming I’m more bearish going towards the end of the year.
These videos are good. I like when you just talk to us plainly. Like as if we are on the same playing field. (We aren’t cause I don’t have 6 figures of call options) lol
It's very hard to be bullish other than the fact that it's been hard to be bullish for the last 2 years and yet the market has climbed a wall of worry anyway. The Russell 2000 is actually negative since 1/1/21 and that's nominal so there's plenty of room for small caps to perform as long as there's merely a garden variety recession. They would love cheaper and more abundant excess labor as well as a reprieve in interest rates. I think the play here is just dollar cost average into the mid caps since small caps are going to get crushed if not BKd when the recession hits and large caps are priced to perfection.
You need a drink in this crazy market, this Friday I closed my positions, turn d off PC's and put the phone away charging and sat outside and had a "natural" smoke to calm down from this crazy market 🤣🤷🥴
When Fed doesn't cut interest rates, the market sees that the economy is strong. When Fed cuts market will price in whatever. Es will continue to be bullish until end of year at least.
They keep saying inflation is not a problem anymore and we're on track for better days. But my rent is still high, electricity just skyrocketed, gas is still high compared to 2019, housing market in my area is still terrible, food prices are still extremely high, insurance rates went up, restaurants increased their prices, and so forth. I mean nothing got cheaper besides gas went down some. But everything is still high. Am I tripping or what are they talking about when they say inflation isn't an issue anymore? Or is it because California in general is just fcked?
I'm starting to hear of layoffs here in Canada lately for people that have been with companies over 15 years ....also i head from a person that Doordash for extra cash and in 2021 they made enough to pays the bills with it but recently they tried it again and got no orders in over 4 hours .....
Interesting times we are living in. A recession will lead us to endless drinking times. And ill be drinking with Kevin while he is live on youtube drinking beer.
There’s always something negative going on but you got to put that up against the positives. Like massive buybacks and companies revenues increasing. Huge wads of cash sat in the sidelines in money markets while interest rates pull back etc.
Every notice that most “talkative” podcasters and RU-vidrs are day drinkers. Qevin sips his “coffee” and voice drops an Octave, once you see it can’t miss it.
