Although the release date is similar I don’t think Past Lives and Sing Sing are really comparable. I think a major reason why Past Lives hype to win died down so fast is because of Barbie and Oppenheimer coming in and taking away all the attention that summer. Sing Sing can pretty much claim all the awards attention until the festivals start. I think that It’s possible that A Real Pain gets lost in the shuffle of new premieres. In fact, A Real Pain could find itself in a Past Lives situation if Joker and Gladiator are critically acclaimed and takes up the conversation.
I also feel like Domingo and Raci, of everyone from the Sing Sing cast, were more well-known at this point in the race than most of the people involved with Past Lives (due to a number of factors). And Sing Sing has been met with multiple standing ovations and even a couple of festival awards since A24 picked it up from TIFF. That, and I'm sure there will be more time given to voters who don't see these movies in theaters right away, either.
Excited to see ya'll doing predictions again! On a side note, I watched an amazing new film named Janet Planet that I think you both would really dig! It's in theaters currently from A24.
A Real Pain won’t get a best picture nomination. Maybe screenplay nom but that’s about it. CODA as a precedent doesn’t make much sense. 2021 was still hugely impacted by COVID. While I thought Sing Sing not amazing (still very good), it has a strong narrative that plenty of voters could get behind.
My predicted line up right now 1. Sing Sing 2. Anora 3. Dune: Part Two 4. Blitz (I see the complaints I just think it’s one of those films that’s too big to fail the same way Killers last year) 5. The Room Next Door 6. Joker: Folie a Deux 7. Conclave 8. Nightbitch (Cause of Amy Adams) 9. Nickel Boys 10. Emilia Perez I don’t believe in Queer simply because Luca Guadagnino doesn’t make movies that satisfy the academy, Call Me By Your Name was a fluke, and just reading what the film’s about, it doesn’t strike me as an awards contender, however I do believe in Daniel Craig for a lead actor nomination
A real pain is not happening, that's an indie comedy,what will it get screenplay and maybe Culkin,it would be very weird if that gets in at all,i haven't seen it but that's the feeling I'm getting,Palm springs,Booksmart,Eight grade and The farewell that's what this movie feels like to me
I don't usually do my predictions so early but I would say Anora,Sing sing and Dune are locks and they probably go for Joker,Queer,Room next door,Sacred fig and Blitz, Conclave is also very possible,maybe Nightbitch if it's great,Piano lessons is also possible and I can still see a path for Challengers and just maybe Civil war(but that's a long shot),No way A real pain happens and I can't think of anything else right now
My current 10 would be 1. Sing Sing 2. Anora 3. Dune Part 2 4. Queer 5. Blitz 6. Conclave 7. The Nickel Boys 8. Joker 2 9. Emilia Perez 10. The Room Next Door Feels weird not having a searchlight film in here, but I know I'll be wrong with at least 3 or 4 here.
