Elites, Counter-Elites and Indicators of Revolution: A book review of End Times by Peter Turchin 

Turchin hoping that the elites will come to their senses and get a handle on the problem is an exercise in futility. That's because most of the elites are exacerbating the problem.

This is how one should review books. You give an unbiased account of the arguments presented in the book and your critique is both insightful, well-articulated on top of being respectful.

I have discovered your video thanks to RU-vid algorythm. I am absolutely amazed by both: your succint and clear description of the ideas on the book and even more by the quality and intelligece of your critiques (and respectfulness). You got me

I love the way you talk. English is not my first language and this level of clarity helps me understand EVERYTHING you are saying. Makes me so happy to be able to learn such sophisticated subject.

This is quite good. My wife and I have been reading the Turchin book. Your review was well worth listening to. Thank you!

As for the importance of the digital age, we can look back to the introduction of the printing press as a force that magnified the effect of the Reformation.

I found a gem in this channel, thank you for what you do !

Social credit score and gossip and ostracization are not really that different. Something like the inquisition was a precursor to social credit score, as controlled by government.

I'm really glad this video and channel seem to be gaining traction. These ideas are so integral to an honest conversation around our political and social climate, and your videos make these ideas easy to understand. Thanks for helping communicate and search for the truth in these chaotic times!

I'm reading the book right now and I feel like you did a better job explaining the ideas in the book better than the author himself

👍 Agreed. One could argue that breaking the rules is part of the game. I would rather view the counter elites as people resetting the game. However one should also ask how much is really going to change if the culture is unaffected by the reset. And, are they at all interested in change - just in assuming power and wealth for themselves.

I think your critique @15:56 is spot on. The elites have always had important social roles, and when a large percentage of the average population believes that those roles are being abused, then there is a potential tinderbox of violence that can boil over.

It must be a miracle why i stumbled upon this channel, knowledge is power.

I really liked your video. Glad to see another RU-vidr covering interesting topics. Keep it up!

Super glad I stumbled onto your channel. Looking forward to what you do next!

Thank you for this thoughtful review and thank you more for the additional resources to look at... Very helpful.

I think you are making an excellent point in the diversification of power, and the need to take its different manifestations into account when making a projection.

Excellent summary and critique! Really well done! Thank you!

I listened to his Bari Weiss interview recently. With respect to elite overproduction, do they take into account that elite jobs are rapidly being outsourced to other countries? This in a way creates an amplified overproduction problem by introducing factors not previously present in the equation.

One of the very best channels on YT. Thanks Ash!

What a great book review. I really enjoy and I'm going to read that book. Thanks.

Fantastic overview. It's truly appreciated. Your insights and critique are well thought out. Thank you

Great video, you're adding to this discussion, explaining and expanding his book. I would quibble with your criticisms however: 1. The trauma of poverty pales in comparison with the trauma of war and violence, so that is why he weighs civil war more heavily than poverty, as far as I can see. Also, it affects elites and masses, and so elites, who are in position to turn off the wealth pump, should do so if they wish to avoid their own destruction in civil war as well. His many examples illustrate the danger of war and violence above all else. So his book is a direct appeal to the elites in America and the West today, to save themselves and the society by turning off the wealth pump. The masses don't have the power to do it directly, only the elites. (Although the masses can work together to influence them). 2. Counter-elites - the key is that they are mostly unsuccessful in gaining power and angry about it. Someone who breaks rules to get into power is essentially tearing down the prevailing order by breaking the rules. Once they pass the first hurdle, they have to _maintain_ that position and that will require more rules-breaking - you can't stop once you start. That erodes the society and state, when rules-breaking is normalized, and that's the beginning of revolution, when enough people break enough rules, it leads towards throwing out the current elites and re-making the power structure with a new set of elites. You need to go back and read more closely for this part. 3. Social roles of the elites - the role of the royalty (as he reminds in the book) was first and foremost always to protect against outside invaders. That's it. Now, they had power to govern internally as well, unless some other power center had taken that control (such as the church) but internal governance was not the key job of the gentry. He does talk about an example when Russian royalty neglected their military duty and that caused upheaval, because by neglecting to serve the society in a protective role, they were essentially turning on the wealthy pump. So he does talk about roles and neglect of the ones that were negotiated by the society - social compact. You say he doesn't talk about this, but he does. All the roles relate to the wealth pump - if it has been turned out, then the elites have failed, by definition. So their roles have been neglected. 4. Economic structures changing in the digital age - he talks about the details changing, as you describe, but he also says that the basic pattern does not change. You have to understand the difference between details and patterns. He gives many examples of this - I think again, you have not read closely. 5. Network power vs. economic power - again, your critique is not very useful because he specifically explains that different societies elevate different types of power. In America today, economic power (CEOs and political donors) are the power centers. No, it's not about 'who you know,' it's about how much money you're willing to give people in positions to make laws. He says that in other eras and places, ideological and military power was more ascendant - so I feel again, your critique is off-bass. You did an excellent job in the first half of this video and then the critiques all fall flat - it's as if you didn't actually read the second half of the book. You should go back and read it again and maybe just chop off the second half of the video with the critiques.

Very interesting topic and review! And I agree with most if not all of your observations. Thanks! Just subscribed!

Thank you for making this video, I learned a lot from it. Well done!

Reminds me of Thomas Pikeitty "Capital in the 21st Century" with function of capital accumulation, and periodic war or collapse is necessary to distroy overproduction and redistribute wealth.

Ashley you are so correct ! Redistribution won't be enough . I have UTMOST Respect for your analysis and direction chosen in your reasoning. Your very thought provoking.

Wonderful and thoughtful summary. Thank you

This video got me with the bangs. ( I love girls w/ bangs) the bible quote "those who have will get more" explains the surfeit of college grads as well as the folks who amass Things. Good work, Sister. Many thanx!

That was a fantastic overview, thank you

Really great analysis. Good job.

Very thoughtful analysis. You, are actually competing for an elite position among the networkers and I'm not sad about that.

Power relates to how much say the population has. This has been lost within traditional media, and is being fought on digital platforms where weakness is in crowd behavior where people go where other people go thus critical thinking is often up against it.

Fabulously well articulated review! Well done. Haven't read this book yet, but from your review it seems like it would dovetail nicely with The Fourth Turning Is Here, Principles for Dealing With the Changing World Order, and The End of the World Is Just the Beginning.

Thank you very much for your study and presentation. I never knew of Turchin, but I had come across another soviet-era scientist, who in the terrible solitude of the era did some groundbreaking observations of the same sort. ( A. Tchijevsky. Physical Factors of the Historical Process. A short sketch. 1924). If you include Kontratieff, these were true pioneers in this area of study. Thank you again

I found this so interesting. thanks for sharing.

i appreciate the review and critical input. i need to watch ur video again. i will for sure consult my local library to read the book else i will buy one cheers

Wow, this is easily the best, most intelligent discussion of the instability of our times I've come across. Now I have to get this book, but also watch more videos from this RU-vidr. Even within knowing of this book until this second: those critiques make so much sense. This is all so much more astute than the left's recycled socialism and the right's woke blah-blah-blah.

15:00 is spot on analysis IMHO - thank you so much ;-)

Right on. Thanks for sharing.

incredible vulgarisation, thank you

Let's do a virtual book club on books like this!

Great video! I'd love to see you review 'The End of Protest: A New Playbook for Revolution' by Micah White, which is one of my favourite books on this subject.

This is well presented.

I happened upon this video .I would like to compliment you on making a superb video review , i haven't seen many peoples review videos that i really enjoyed watching and I must say i enjoyed it and im looking forward to seeing others from you. ive subbed up right away .There is the topic of cycles that most people have sadly overlooked . Just For example the chinese have a long standing record of a 400 yr cycle called "the mandate from heaven ". Where the governments are always overthrown because the weather patterns change due to magnetic field changes that cause famine from crop losses which always ensues . It easily explains why China was stocking up on food and developing new food production zones in seemingly bizarre places. Cycles within cycles is also interesting...Ive found many books written on this topic were far too superficial or narrow in scope to be good reads..Your review was such a great breakdown of the book that youve peaked my interest and I plan to buy it right after i watch your next review pinned above lol. thanks again and take care.

...great video Ashley ! grateful

The diagram used for the cycle is interesting- it shows exactly what's happening- the overall trendline toward "peace" ( reinforced structure?) moves more power to the elite with each cycle. Focusing on the micro he is obscuring the overall trend that may have a cycle itself or may merely be "blip" in a long term baseline of near turmoil. I might also add that rather than a rosy picture of the disaffected aspiring elite inspiring the populace they find themselves(now powerless?) trapped in, it's the breaking of the rules that either inspire or anger the populace- hatred and spite(defiance?) not love and caring .

I've been looking for something like this. At UCLA in the 80s, my comparative political economics prof discussed long 30-year cycles of degrees of individualism vs collectivism with violence and disruption at the turns. Will tech and AI tilt the cycle to central power or neo feudalism? We will see. Pass the popcorn. Thanks for sharing this Ashley!

The video I mentioned on network power is here: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-gJqN07wp4nU.html If you like this video, another book review video in the same vein is my review of Revolt of the Public by Martin Gurri: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-VXBl2DKpBJI.html

This is a bit off topic, but the more I think about history and the future, where we're going as a sentient species, what makes life worth living, etc, the more I think there must be a larger cyclical pattern to "the universe" overall. Think about where we're going, essentially technological godhood. As everything that makes life worth living, like love, growth and struggle, gets optimized away by technology, what reason is there to live? These AI models literally know everything there is to know, so in a future world where everyone literally knows everything, there is no reason to learn, there is no curiosity, there is no reason to do anything because you already know what will happen. If you eliminate every hardship and just become a brain in a jar experiencing infinite pleasure forever, what's the point. The way I would fix this is just to reset the world to before any of that technology, when sentience, curiosity and struggle were still special. Any sufficiently advanced civilization might realize this every time it happens and just reset themselves. So who knows, perhaps the universe really is just an endless cycle of these resets.

Your brain is a diamond! Great work

Yep, you earned my subscription!

Outstanding review. Have you done The Fourth Turning Is Here yet? Keep up the great work. New subscriber. ☺️

Interesting review. Just ordered it on Amazon Prime. Cheers

Very interesting video!

Awesome breakdown

People used to congratulate me for not getting a 4 year degree but I came to view the directionless lives of those people as part of the reason why 4year degrees are so devalued.

Great vid, sounds like a good read, added it to my list. What I really want to know is when is the new enlightenment book coming out?

I read the book by James Gleck decades ago and wondered when a book like what you show would be mentioned. interesting. I

Super interesting!

4:45 Victor yakovenko outlines this. He studies the statistical mechanics of money. Interesting RU-vid videos. Also, Ole Peters covers this in his own way as well, specifically, he often focuses on non-ergodicity. Very highly recommend these two, since this is a very niche topic and they definitely do justice to it.

This is a great review and an incredibly thoughtful, subtle critique.

Very informative, I agree with most of this. I'm wondering I RFK Jr. would be considered a Counter Elite?

Thank you Ashley.

I've always thought people are like the weather. You can predict where a storm is going to be, but you cannot stop it.

This is another way of viewing the importance of social status to Homo sapiens. As a eusocial animal, status is of towering importance. Will Storr recently addressed this in his book The Status Game. IMO, status may be second only to procreation in human drive strength / imperative. Indeed, status can be seen as a procreation strategy - increased breeding rights. So it all comes together. We like to think of ourselves as a complex, divine being but it may all come down to sex and survival. Especially sex. Advertising agencies have known this all along. Great review of a very interesting book. I’m going to get a Kindle copy. Thank you, I subbed.

You are absolutely correct in making a distinction between the past and now. Using an analogy, when martial artist shows look through history about weapon effectiveness there has to be a distinct separation between pre and post projectile weapons (guns), for obvious reasons. There are times when technology just makes traditional comparisons between the past and the "now" inadequate. The trick is however figuring what is that point and more importantly the nuances because not all of the past is nullified, just aspects weakened or nullified, and people of every point in history (more or less) think theirs is the cutting edge/revolution point. I think giving an answer is above my "pay grade" as they say here in the US (and probably past the length of the comment section!) but given we have grown through an acceleration of everything (how fast information travels, how fast we can move around the world, how fast we can transport goods/energy, how fast... you name it) I suspect we are in an era where nothing is off the table. Thank you for such a thought provoking opinion piece. BTW, my multiple use of the word "fast" is not random as I would be willing to conject that the speed of many things we do is a, if not the, primary difference between between now and the past. When knowledge, and now disinformation can spread to the entire population of the planet in under a second whereas for almost all of history that would have been months, if not years, then I don't know how you would even calculate the difference in the effect on society. It seems (maybe feels) like the need the change some equations from using traditional methods to needing to use infinities (calculus and limits?). Seems radical. Well, if all humans, on the scale that humans can react to, can get a piece of information faster than they can tell another, that's in human terms is infinitely fast in my book. Absolutely NOT mathematically infinite, that's not the suggestion I am making. Anyway, food for thought for anyone else in this world who is weirdo enough as I am to think down this path.

The money pump is explained by Henry hazlitt as inflation. Money goes first to group A then group B then group C...... The person who gets the money first gets to spend it before the extra money has pushed up prices.

Really loved your analysis here! I especially enjoyed you critiquing the ways in which so-called elites function in society as well as the emergence of new structures in the economy/history. The internet, of course, being exemplary of a truly unheard of innovation in recorded history. I think what is especially pernicious in today's society is a blanket idea that elitism is a natural function of a social order. But to my thinking, hasn't the human species generally trended in a direction that reigns in elites? Simply put: Ancient Empire > Empires > Feudal Lordships/Monarchy > Representative Governments/Totalitarian States >> ?? I think the missing variable here is that we still can and should innovate on what it means to have power at all. Couldn't there be possible futures in which excess concentration of wealth is outright banned? Couldn't we collectively decide to shame and disassociate from economic systems that perpetually impoverish and physically damage other human beings? I don't think these are pie-in-the-sky hippie notions, but rather, evident and obvious reforms if we want to remain alive on the planet together in any meaningful way. To repeat cycles, well, would be idiotic indeed, especially with the advent of so much technology that could 10x wealth and productivity in the next century. It's sort of hard to keep justifying hoarding when all the sudden you have more energy/power/technology to give wealth to a much larger number of humans, yeah? Anyways, you got a new subscriber!

Great video 👍

Everyone has their opinions of course, but, I think you were spot on with some of your critiques. The current ruling elites focus appears to be 1) maximizing profit; 2) retaining power. All other societal problems are pushed aside and disregarded to these overarching ideas. Climate change, population concerns about income, housing, etc... are of no major concern. Their relationship with the general public is one of detachment one gives to an annoying fly. They see no correlation between their actions and how it affects, the public, nations or the Earth environmentally. They only see these things through the lens of how it affects their profits or power.

4:26 I broadly agree with you here, that luck could be replaced with hard work and talent to the same ends, but how would you actually construct this experiment?

daniel schmachtenberger suggests that the two most likely 'attractor basins' or outcomes are a collapse to a lower state of order, or increased authoritarian control. so he is seeking a 'third attractor', which is the possibility of replacing the existing systems with a higher state of order when things destabilise.

sounds like a fun book, looks like i'll have to buy it

18:38 So glad you mentioned that current elites have new tools that despots of the past could only dream of. I think any future civil war would look more like a slave revolt, rather than eg. 1776. The power imbalance is great and slave revolts usually lose.

You do a superb job of reviewing Turchin's book. I've taught popular economics for many years and use similar games but I was very interested in the experiment you described using $100. Is there any way I can get information on the game and how it is played?

That was interesting. Thanks!

Great review…

To get away from these cycles of peace and chaos, we need to re-envision what it means to have power and influence, by placing value on service to others, not yourself. Those who have ability, knowledge and wealth should prioritize employing those resources in service to society as a whole, while of course taking care of their own needs, but not piling up luxuries with no end. That attitude of service is aligned with basic religious principles,including Christian, Muslim, Buddhist and others. And it must not seek to divide classes, but rather encourage rich and poor , or elites and non-elites, to all work to the best of their abilities. I am inspired by the teachings of the Baha’i Faith, which offers a vision that unifies and finds the best in all people.

Overall it was a great video, you gained my sub. Keep it up !!

Great job! I do agree with your critiques . I would emphasize computation is ready to replace much of beaucracy already both are forms od idealism and being held back to instead try harder more costly with attempts to replace our love of labor which is how we live out our dreams. It took 70 yr to get truck tech in the hands of owner operaters of their own bizz Yet gov spends heavily to automat even tho we love the freedom of cars . This is a huge trial and tribulation between bottom up rule or continue globalism top down rule

Danke!

Thanks for that. Critiques 2 and 4 are strong; Turchin really shouldn't've made the rather obvious (to my mind) mistake you pointed out with critique 2. Re critique 6, what effect on this cyclical historical phenomenon do you believe AIs' inevitable massive reduction in the number of available "golden seats" of élite power will have?

Great reviews! I would make one comment or response. I know it seems like the wealthy shouldn’t have to care about inequality because of the potential for instability, violence and potential for state collapse or civil war, but the reality is most people are just not empathetic enough to care enough for economic struggles jus for the sake unless there are grave consequences. I think his while maybe not perfect, is certainly a sound warning for the wealthy and powerful to allow their wealth and power to be shared . . or something bad might happen. BTW, you have a soothing way of speaking, kind ASMR in a way.

I love your review. I read the book and it was on my list "14 wellbeing books from 2023" (human sphere) because he analyses with great metaphors what happened in the history period. My review and your critiques find some of the holes that the book doesn't reach because of several causes but mostly "CONTEXT". His book doesn't analyse pre-history because that is another paradigm (indigenous paradigm) and also doesn't analyse another paradigm that I could call post-history (if humanity doesn't disappear because of the cycle Turchin analyses) where something broke that cycle of hierarchies and power. Let's say as a metaphor that the new paradigm is something like a black swan. Nobody can talk about it. Your critiques go to this new paradigm or how the cycle of history is broken and we enter a new paradigm with similarities to the great rupture between the transition from the tribal era to the imperial era. Let's say that there are 3 big paradigms. Tribal Era, Imperial Era (Turchin's book) and Planetary Era. Regarding the last one, we don't know if we will reach it because the human species disappeared but in case it occurs, nobody knows exactly how it will be. There are some patterns that I'm studying and some of your critiques like networks are among those patterns that can emerge and break Turchin's cycle.

Hi Ashley, my first view of you, love your work, the review was excellent and your presentation outstanding. I am from Australia. Elites of all kinds need to understand that to live in a civil and progressive society means a rebalancing of wealth and power that enables them to be where they are, healthy functional societies cannot exist if wealth especially is concentrated in the few, without strong ethical practice, accountability and responsibility, the last 50 years being a gross insult and destructive eara, to humanity, but not without hope of change.

I've read this book - I think elite overproduction might happen sure but causation is tenuous at best

Bravo! I follow this guy and I think his techniques have great merit. It's up to the secret societies how it turns out, though.

“The depression was the calculated ‘shearing’ of the public by the World Money powers, triggered by the planned sudden shortage of supply of call money in the New York money market. The One World Government leaders and their ever close bankers have now acquired full control of the money and credit machinery of the U.S. via the creation of the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank.” Curtis Dall, FDR’s son-in-law as quoted in his book, My Exploited Father-in-Law

Excellent. Subscribed.

What does this say about all those Saudi princes?

Very good review

The counter elite becomes a counter elite is the one who *takes*power. So it all depends on how you interpret the analogy.

Make change, make change. BE a democracy of equals.

Amen to that !!!

The Matthew Principle is sort of how Pump & Dump schemes work, where 'luck' is simply removed from the equation. If I have a billion dollars to play with and you only have a thousand, we can be involved in the same insider trading / pump & dump and your profits will be insignificant compared to mine; if the profit is 50% of the investment, your $1000 will only become $1500 where my $1b will become $1.5b.

The discussion of the FDR era ... read the book 'Taxes Have Consequences" and you'll see a bit more background history of that whole event.

I read similar arguments from Niccolo Macchiavelli, more in Discourses than The Prince.

The Matthew Principle is also called the Pareto Principle. And I agree with your critiques.

You don't need to use ethical or moral arguments to be for wealth redistribution. It's a simple stabilizing mechanism. Without it, the system will destabilize itself with violent consequences.