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Ellipticality (Technical) 

N N Taleb's Probability Moocs
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Modern financial theory assumes that distributions are elliptical. We show what happens if the assumption doesn't hold. And the assumption doesn't hold.
Diversification does NOT reduce risks in the financial market; it causes near-certain long term blowups under any leverage.

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14 окт 2024

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Комментарии : 38   
@HubertHeller
@HubertHeller 4 года назад
Sound quality is not very good. Here are some tips that will help: Use a good quality microphone. In LearnUpon, we use blue yeti microphones. They’re relatively inexpensive whilst also being high quality (here’s a guide on how to get the most out of them). And if you’re recording in a noisy environment use dynamic microphones. Choose your place of recording carefully, insulated from street noise etc. Turn off anything in the room that’s generating ambient noise, for example, a computer or air conditioning. We suggest sit in the room and make a short recording, when you play it back it’ll help you to identify any ambient noises. If you find there’s a low background hiss on your test recording try reducing the gain on the microphone a little. here’s usually a dial on the microphone itself. Get closer to the microphone, but don’t get too close! Extend your hand fully and the distance between your thumb to your pinky finger is about the optimum distance you should be positioned from the mic. Run a few test recordings to ensure you’re happy with the setup.
@philoneill9865
@philoneill9865 4 года назад
Dear Nicholas, I have read and enjoyed all of your books. I think I was the first person to mention Fooled By Randomness in the Financial Times, back in 2003 or 4 or so. As a big fan of your work and presentations, may I suggest you purchase a Zoom Q2n Recorder and connect it to your computer. It is made by the Japanese musical instrument company, Zoom. Not the famous Zoom company. This device will help make both video and sound much more appealing and help spread your message to a wider audience. Thank you again for your work on all things distributional.
@yaronkeren4366
@yaronkeren4366 4 года назад
Link to "The joint distribution of stock returns is not elliptical": arxiv.org/abs/1009.1100
@xenmaster0
@xenmaster0 4 года назад
Extremely enlightening. The audio issue seems like an encoding problem. Might try transcoding the video to high-def and then uploading it. RU-vid codecs seem to produce fewer artifacts on hi-def videos than on SD videos.
@marble296
@marble296 4 года назад
Gotta sort that video quality
@MrBolaextra
@MrBolaextra 4 года назад
Specially the sound
@AniruddhNadimpalliGKNL
@AniruddhNadimpalliGKNL 4 года назад
Recommend books where we can read this stuff, Mr NNT. I don't know where to begin, but I surely want to learn.
@gordonf4723
@gordonf4723 4 года назад
He has 6 (7) books out there that give you a roadmap. Buy incerto, buy statistical tails, and research each topic that you dont understand. He has an amazon book reviews list online. The information is all out there dude.
@imadmoujahid3431
@imadmoujahid3431 4 года назад
fs.blog/2012/02/book-recommendations-from-nassim-taleb/
@miraclemaxicl
@miraclemaxicl 4 года назад
"fat tails" book is free to download. www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html See Technical Incerto, vol 1
@simonvv1002
@simonvv1002 4 года назад
He also has a lot of papers, that are more 'easy' to understand. The moment you don't understand something from the paper, look it up.
@daniellindberg4223
@daniellindberg4223 4 года назад
Here's Nassim's Amazon reviews. www.amazon.com/gp/profile/amzn1.account.AHMHNR4MRTDLMBOOT6Q7LX2WP5YA
@MohammadaliAnsarizadeh
@MohammadaliAnsarizadeh 3 года назад
Love this guy. Have an excellent whatever!
@gxsoft
@gxsoft 4 года назад
Please Dr. Press F5, and is could possible UpLoad the video with HD Quality because It's impossible understand the words... The Sound and THE video quality are really bad. Anyway I read and I a follower of you. Thanks for your books are really good. gab
@remlatzargonix1329
@remlatzargonix1329 3 года назад
Thanks for doing this. It is very interesting.
@guitarmaniaxx
@guitarmaniaxx 4 года назад
"We are lucky that the correlation is bounded" that was a good one right at the end. Otherwise loving the content but audio and video could do with some improvement.
@bmk4851
@bmk4851 3 года назад
So what do we do about a portfolio knowing this, basket of a few concentrated positions with small inverse position and 50%+ in cash/Treasury/currency is what came to my mind?
@booeylopa
@booeylopa 4 года назад
The entire mathematical approach of finance is only so because it's convenient to model under those certain assumptions. Academia knows it, practitioners know it. Financial institutions know it. Why do banks trade at only 10 times earnings? The risks hidden in the tails are a known unknown. Nobody knows when those will explode or why. Bankers make money and will get bailed out so there's huge moral hazard there which is a red flag not to invest. Academia will continue to teach it because its convenient and elegant to research under elliptical assumptions. So as investors we stay away from where the risks are known and use margin of safety. Thanks for the video.
@Alex_Plante
@Alex_Plante 4 года назад
I think my cat understands tail risks more than I do...
@takashikashiwase3461
@takashikashiwase3461 4 года назад
thx as always
@mikiallen7733
@mikiallen7733 4 года назад
One question Nassim , which I have not found a satisfying answer for till now , even in your latest book , is there an efficient way to measure correlations in a Talib-like correlations ? Though distance correlations does better job than standard linear ones , it does not reflect changes in cross higher moments like kurtosis and skewness ,is there a way / methodology to be able to predict with reasonable confidence level say at 90 percent changes in higher order cross moments ?
@donaldduck7139
@donaldduck7139 4 года назад
Thank you!
@fanjerry8100
@fanjerry8100 4 года назад
I want to read the slides, but the video is very blurry, can you re-upload sir?
@TManOriginal
@TManOriginal 4 года назад
It's a shame that the video resolution is so low.
@angusm9419
@angusm9419 4 года назад
Plz fix audio. 👍
@ДамирИсмаилова
@ДамирИсмаилова 4 года назад
Thank you
@kevalan1042
@kevalan1042 3 года назад
It's gotta be good content if I keep watching in 360p :D
@eshmunvideochannel2019
@eshmunvideochannel2019 4 года назад
Professor you describe the regime switch as a problem. It is not your problem. It's the problem of others who don't understand that mathematics is an axiomatic science. I did a mathematics degree way back in my youth and got my enlightenment when I came across Euclid's parallel line postulate. It took the brightest minds on this planet 2000 years to stop trying to prove that parallel lines never converge and in the 1830s, three mathematicians, Lobachevsky, Bolyai and the titan of mathematics Gauss all independently came to the simple conclusion that Euclid's postulate was indeed unprovable because it was an axiom of Euclidean geometry. The corollary that had evaded everyone was that if you negate the assumption and accept that parallel lines do converge then you open up the world to thinking about new geometries, non-Euclidean geometries, meta-geometries which are equally as valid and in some cases better descriptors of the world we observe around us. People in finance and economics are generally closed minded people driven by greed and vested interests. They actually don't deserve to be educated.
@KarimTraderFutures
@KarimTraderFutures 4 года назад
Svp faites nous un cours en français
@nntalebproba
@nntalebproba 4 года назад
Bon. Quand?
@KarimTraderFutures
@KarimTraderFutures 4 года назад
@@nntalebproba Quand vous le souhaiterez, nous sommes très nombreux à vous suivre de France et plus généralement des pays franco-phones. Une vidéo en langue française de temps en temps, serait accueillie avec la plus grande délectation. Merci pour vos partages et pour ce que vous nous avez révélé dans vos ouvrages.
@KarimTraderFutures
@KarimTraderFutures 4 года назад
@@nntalebproba Je pratique votre stratégie "d'asymétrie des altères", puisque je suis professeur dans la vie courante et je vais commencer à trader sur les marchés des futures. :)
@nntalebproba
@nntalebproba 4 года назад
C'est fait. Regardez la continuation en francais
@KarimTraderFutures
@KarimTraderFutures 4 года назад
@@nntalebproba Bonsoir M. Taleb, merci infiniment pour ce partage et d'avoir accordé de l'importance à ma requête. C'est toujours une immense joie de vous comprendre.
@geneivanoff3164
@geneivanoff3164 4 года назад
Horrible microphone
@pfelipeprog7094
@pfelipeprog7094 4 года назад
It's Apple...
@CasaBonita1018
@CasaBonita1018 4 года назад
I think you mean ellipticity?? You're discussing the quality of the level sets of a distribution not being an ellipse.
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