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its reported by a swedish blogger there was 500 russian soldiers in tetkino, and about 700 russian soldiers acrosss the rest of that border zone south of the river in glukovsky district.
important update, the footage of the convoy been attacked at 3 min 34 in has had serious doubts about it been ukranian. this info comes from the Suchomimus you tube channel, and that it is either a retreating russian convoy, or is a russian supply convoy returning to the rear after dropping off supplies
Putin planned on pointing out Muscovy's slow, steady advance as unstoppable and convince the allies to let him have Ukraine. Ukraine just silenced him as that line of reasoning is gone.
@hans. Russians still gain some ground in the Donbas but the gains continue to be quite small. If you look at a map of all of Ukraine, Russian gains over the last year are almost impossible to even see without zooming in considerably. These small Russian advances have basically zero effect on the larger strategic situation of the war. Cheerleading about these Russian gains is basically just pushing Russian propaganda and talking points.
Very nice take on the situation in Kursk. I seem to recall a WWII German assesment of Russian troops fighting bravely to the last man when they were attacked from the front, particularly if they had had a few days to dig in. They also said that if you could get to their flank or rear, the men were subject to panic. I think that we are seeing a bit of that here.
To maintain some sense of reality and balance, we should understand it is a proven fact outflanking or surrounding a group of forces will often lead to the destruction of opposing forces - be there panic or none - and to a severe weakening of surrounding enemy positions. For those troops caught and disadvantaged in such a position it is quite reasonable and logical to consider surrender in order to value life and avoid unecessary deaths. Oustanding acts of heroism and sacrifice should really be the utmost of last resorts - to be adoopted in truly exceptional circumstances. Of course the art of effective combined-arms warfare is to continue to create such situations for your enemy and disrupt their abilty to fight cohesively. It looks like this is what the counter-offensive in Kursk is demonstrating. These battles will be reviewed, replayed and rehearsed in military colleges for decades to come.
We also have to keep in mind that a lot of the units in the "pocket" in Kursk are lightly armed, poorly trained 18 year olds in their mandatory military service, not hardened veterans of 2+ years in the Donbas trenches. (This is probably why Russia is expending so much effort to keep bridges open - it is a disaster in the making for them)
Thank you for your updates. My wife is russian/Ukranian that used to live near the kursk region and this whole war has been terrible to witness from the beginning
Thanks for the update again. I will be in Panama next week with my truck camper. I would like to cheers you. Don't worry, I'm not a russian agent, just a canadian travelling the panamaerican highway with my girlfriend!
Russia is estimated to have 6-7 weeks to recover Kursk. After that comes the rains, then the freeze. With the lack of many hard surfaces roads,which will make it easier defence if UA chooses they will be hard to eject until early summer of 25. Logistics RU will probably not be ready anyway. If UA decides to stay.
@@jackthorton10 middle. When the rains come the 2nd mud season Cross country will be very difficult Lack of many hard roads just fewer points to defend makes any large/ substantial offense a big ask
I just feel Putin will not make a significant movement in Kursk until the first of next year… after the mud season freezes. He hasn't been Swift to respond. It seems he is focused on problems closer to home… such as the loyalty of the Generals. We shall see. Thank you, Torsten!
Its really tiresome how many people underestimate the Russians. Sure, they have proven that they can fuck up, but they have also shown that they can get things done even if its in a ugly manner. UA forces could face some serious problems out there, especially if they don't act like Russians. They will not hide between civilians, and Russians will not hesitate to level their own towns and it can all be blamed on the evil "Ukranazis". So how is this gonna work? Trenches digging over the winter only for a similar game that is currently going on in the east. I hope for a better plan, because this does not sound healthy to me at all.
You wont most probably for quite a while. What do you think will the handful of outdated F-16 with barely trained pilots do? Not to mention the limitation of equipment they get. Are you expecting some turn of events? Get real bro. And sry if I come off a lil harsh, but don't get your hopes up about that because the F-16, as a great jet it is, the Ukraine simply does not have the same backing such a plane needs to unfold its potential. Just so you get that straight. There are enough people knowing this stuff out there highlighting these constraints for quite a while now.
The Ukrainian Kursk Offensive has indeed revealed some very interesting dynamics. - Putin does not have an itchy Nuke trigger finger. I think there are genuinely Red Lines, but taking Russian territory per se is not one one of them. Taking Moscow would be. - Not telling anyone else what you are going to do is dynamite. Misdirection can have the same effect if you can get your enemy to believe it but if they have no idea you can exploit panic even if temporarily. You get the edge first. - Thinking that an area is at low risk from attack and therefore defending it with low grade conscripts is a high risk strategy. When they face veteran battle hardened forces well briefed, co-ordinated and supported with heavy weapons and aviation it is game over for them. Surrender or retreat are their best options for staying alive. And I suggest yet another example of how the Ukrainians are just smarter than the Russians. Even after 2 1/2 years they haven't adapted more than minimally. But let us be under no illusions that the Ukrainians are in any sense 'winning' this conflict. They are not. And neither is Putin but he is still getting what he wants. Ukraine is not in NATO or the EU.
I agree with a lot of your views about these battles ... however, I'd suggest Putin is NOT getting what he wants. Ukraine might now be described as a proxy for NATO, but that situation was created wholly by Putin's invasion. NATO is stronger militarily now than it was at the beginning of 2022 and is prepared to resist Russian aggression (even if Putin thinks that aggression is justified). It is firmly supporting Ukraine and seems unlikely to withdraw (which would clearly be injurious to it's own unified position and interests). Russia is now relatively and absolutely weaker than the start of 2022 and seems to be in a position of slow decline. While neither side is going to "run out of troops", I can't see any way Russia can sustain it's war effort or rebuild it's offensive capabilties to win a war of the kind Putin has "fallen" into.
Putin IS getting what he wanted, that IS land to colonize. There are no doubts about Crimea anymore, and the Dombass and Zapotizhia are his, I suspect forever. Ukraines victory consists of non losing. And nobody won a war defending , as Churchill said.
I honestly think that ukraine can win this war, as more russians get drafted, the more it will snowball a downfall of the Russian eco, due to them just not having jobs, that will effect russia directly, Russia does not have unlimited men
I appreviate very much your attention to detail. I believe the operational objectives are firstly, to control the town of Rylsk on the (right bank) of the River Seym, the highway bridge there and the footbridge just north of it. Maybe as Denys said today or yesterday - the ail is to approach it from two sides. THEN -- to drop the three railway bridges over the Seym above Lgov. In a very real sense, Konyshyovka -- the original last stop on the Moscow railway and the first stop on those railway lines going north -- understanding that gives you the essence of their whole LEFT flank. The right flank needs to be similarly established by something more than simply the Ukraine border - as Georgie at Ukraine Matters suggested yesterday. But absolutely you must control the highway (and the town) at Rylsk and the Moscow railway coming from Konyshyovka. Otherwise you are not really conducting a military operation because your flanks are unprotected. You must have had the goal and the plan to be able to hold off easily over 100,000 for over a year with out so much trouble. The whole thing is that you must have to have the courage to go as far as you may right up to the gates and force the evacuation of Kursk. And go straight in, to lay seige to it. Forgive me for appearing uncaring but you must at sometime sure up your front, and if that involves bringing up heavy attillery - is there such a thing in this day and age? - and start dismantling the city, then you must do it. In any case, you must create a sequence -- a sequence of frighteners for the Russians starting with cutting off all supply and easy escape along the Seym from Tyotkino to Lgov. You must be aware of the rail supply to Kursk that is wholly unaffected by your control of Lgov.
I think Ukrainian just wanted to exit the stalemate which russians are better at dealing with and create a dilemma for Putin. I really don't think Ukrainians want to raze cities to the ground like Russians do
LOOK @2:45 is that a huge drone swarm in the air above the pontoon running 11 to 4 direction??? Holy Mother of they have perfected channel switching drone swarms.
I love this channel so much. I always like this channel. I follow other channels too, but only this channel and one more I give a like every time I watch it. This comment is not intended to be disparaging. This is a challenge in a way. The comment is: what experts say today about Ukraine's attack on Russia. But what do experts know about magic? Ukraine's attack on Russia does not belong to the domain of science. It is in the realm of magic. It is not in the domain of Newtonian physics, but in the domain of quantum physics. MAGIC.
1:57 If you read the Russian and NATO instructions on building a pontoon bridge (my books mainly date from the 1980/1990s and thus have no reference or understanding of drones). They state that the area of the bridge has to be covered by 2 but normally 4 AA/AAA or SAM or a mix sites just on one side of the bridge with either 2 or 4 new AA/AAA tanks moving across to protect the other end of the bridging area when it has been compleated. Due to my books being so old, they say they would be using the ZSU-23-4. So is Russia very lacking in ZSU-23-4 or modern equivalent or the train troops or any troops to protect these bridges esp the bridge builders' vehicles and troops?
The biggest effect from the Kursk invasion is that Ukraine was able to put a couple wins together. Every report for months it seemed was loss after loss. Morale is huge in war. Motivation. A person's or army's mental is huge as in all areas of life. One Love
Great chess entails presenting your opponent with undesirable choices. At least on the surface it appears that Russia has no good choices. Checkmate might well include losing Crimea, and Kaliningrad
"Give the enemy difficult choices" is what Zelensky said earlier. The dropping of the bridges is a perfect example of this. The enemy can either leave their soldiers there to be overwhelmed, or set up pontoons. Neither is a good option but they *have* to choose. And if they do make bridges they have a choice of getting their troops out or pooring more troops in. Again, neither is a good option but they *have* to choose. Morale suffers greatly when people have to make choices they know are bad either way. Morale suffers even more if those choices are not made. Whatever happens, this is going to end badly for both the soldiers inside that pocket as well as those who are trying to interfere with Ukranian plans there.
First strike had no hit. I watched it like 5 times in slow-mo. Last vehicle was way ahead from the strike. And those looks like mines, not a precision strikes. They just time mines to skip several and then trigger or are delayed. Not an expert though.
Isn't it pretty well established that militaries try not to shoot at those waving white flags? It's a matter of honour to many people and at least reciprocity to others. Some dishonourable armies don't, though, and end up doing in the hostages they were ostensibly there to save. Though if you study their history and believe that, I have a bridge to sell you.
@@DrVictorVasconcelos Communicating one's intent to surrender and establishing a protocol to expose yourself without being shot, but also without making it look like an ambush, is not really a trivial matter, of course, they *want* to take prisoners, but they also don't want to take too much risk getting close without opening fire and eliminating any potential threat.
They should probably be moving anything that can't swim north and maybe reinforcing southwards with fresh "meat" units to guard the retreat of the less expendable conscript units north
I'm watching a stream where a young Russian claims that no Ukrainian will leave Kursk alive. First of all, he left a long time ago, because it's another shift for the guys, so those who are there now didn't necessarily start. Secondly, it's not known whether all the Russians will leave
