EP-156 | Decoding India’s Role in Future Warfare with Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy 

Amazed at how he is speaking as if he is reading a ministry of external affairs statement. Every sentence is well thought out, formal, safe but articulates Indian position clearly and firmly. It is because of such officers that countries don’t go to war all the time. His positions are bereft of clickbait style/social media “sound bites” sensationalism and jingoism, but not pacific or appeasing. Sometimes aggression is demonstrated through restraint and sometimes it is not. A great example of what a national diplomat truly is ❤

Superb discussion ! Awesomely awesome session ! We have so many Nationalists like Mr Chinoy , impressive, eloquent speaker and clear vision of what Bharat wants ! All were quietly working towards their goals and when PM ModiJi came to power these lovely buds started to bloom ! 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏👏👏👏👏👏 Jai Shree Ram Jai Shree Krishna 🙏🙏🙏

He's such an eloquent speaker... I am amazed .. how many people can speak the way he did, can have this kind of clarity.. the flow and everything else....too good. Smitaji do convey to him our appreciation ...he should speak so much more.

The precision of the language of the gentleman is well suited to his activities!!!

One of your best episodes. This gentleman actually made me think beyond self. Real stuff from think tanks.

Brilliant conversation. Amb. S Chinoy was so erudite in his narration; Absolutely marvelous that he spoke about entire World and as Smita pointed out in the end, the insignificance of Pakistan comes out nicely

Excellent discussion. Ex Ambassador Mr. Chinoy is very impressive. His vision and thoughts are clear cut.

Brilliant! Mr.Chinoy is a class act. Kudos.

God bless you sir, my thoughts exactly from past 6-8 years ( giving Our own names)

We want one more podcast with Sir Chinoy !

A superb interview giving in depth analysis of the global situation existing today. Looking forward to more such podcasts.

This is one of the best show in any format. As good as a fiction show or even better.

Excellent analysis of globle geopolitics and India's worries and preparation on the podcast . Thanks the Di plomat who deliberated on the question .

Nice information by mr chinoy the ambassador

The host did not interrupt the guest. Great professionalism

Excellent

Smita ji apka kaise dhanyawad karun ! Defence ke super mind se malane ke liye.🙏

Very good conversation.... Thank you all.. 🙏

Smitha Ji, the best podcast / discussion so far !!👍

Thank you “ Smita Prakash Ji “ for this PODCAST with “ Sujan R. Chinoy Ji “ all set to absorb all the Knowledge ❤😊🙏

What a deep thoughtful person....good guest.... 👍👍

We should call Hong Kong as Hanumanghar

Love this podcast with Sujan Chinoy

Amazing Speaker. The bestest so far. Jai Hind

Please add a chapter break at the point where Sri Chinoy discusses the position of the US, Japan, and Australia on Arunachal and Aksai Chin. That is the highlight of this discussion.

Excellent discussion, the former ambassador is highly knowledgeable and articulate on world affairs, should take over from Jaishankar who only speaks in cute no sequester sound bites..

He's more professional than Garcetti

Hard ,, talks but I love it ❤❤❤

Its gr8 to see such informed and well elucidated opinions backed by on ground experience.Would have loved to hear his take on Pakistan.I feel the only option for Pakistan to be relevant is to play the nuclear bogey as they have nothing else to lose.I wonder about the plans Indian Govt has ,especially with the clearly provocative statements by HM and DM.However I do feel after the elections there will be a big move on improving relations with Pakistan as part of the legacy PM would like to leave.

Different subject yet intresting 😊 Keep it up SMITA

Thanks a great ❤ Aksai chin is an integral part of Republic of India we must have to give indian names

Smitha knowledge is super and very useful

Great insight

After seeing the title I was hoping to hear about how the wars of the future will be fought. Nothing was discussed. So let me tell you. The territorial wars at the boundary will give way to a large extent to cyber wars aimed at the civic and quasi-military infrastructure deep inside our country. There will be no movement of troops in this war. Is India ready for that ? While we are very proud of our Kar Sena, Vayu Sena and Nav Sena for being vigilant at our land borders and territorial waters, should we not have a super speciality Cyber Sena to handle cyber attacks on our internal and land based space assets ? The Cyber Sena too should be under the command of CDS. High time we start recruiting for this from our top technology institutions.

Wonderful interview. But one suggestion please, I noticed a spelling mistake in the second last topic of the index, it's "Dangerous". Thank you for making nice content! 😊

Excellent.

Nice shiny table ❤❤❤

Thanks!

Is this a re-upload? Remember watching this episode sometime back 😅

Smiti, we want a podcast with Director Sandeep Reddy Vanga. If only you guys are not isolated to political genre.

55:00 This Point Also Rasid by Prashant Dhawan

Hello Ma'am I really admire your podcasts and a very keen listener. Can you please invite and do a podcast with Shamika Ravi. Member EAC,PMO on her professional journey.

I would like to know the implications of integrity vs technology, in order to have a better vision of future world, i.e. can integrity be nurtured?

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I find that your guest's approach is that his own position is to reject, but the actions of China is to be taken as 'normal'. He is sending very very confusing signals to the Indian citizens.

Renaming by china has an effect we tend to not notice. You look at Mt Kailash or lake Manasarovar in Google maps. You will find the Chinese names now and no mention of the long standing original names anymore. So overtime wherever they can influence they would get the names enforced. Just a matter of time and a function of how powerful india is at that time

Smita, you look great in this outfit + makeup!

Morevthan conflict, we must talk about alliance to deny opponents any chance for conflict which can be attained by growing people economically

India would help logistically help the Americans to receive materials freely through the Indian ocean and also tie up a large Chinese force on our land border.Maybe help in blockade at the Adman islands.

Here is the podcast transcript analysis report: # Podcast Transcript Analysis Report ## 1. Data Preparation The provided podcast transcript has been reformatted for improved readability. Diarization has been performed to attribute speech to the different participants: Smitha Prakash (Host) Ambassador Sujan Chinoy (Guest) Ajit (Guest) ## 2. Basic Statistics - Total word count: 10,405 words - Top 10 most frequent words (excluding stop words): India (98), China (69), uh (65), Taiwan (35), United (33), States (32), Pakistan (25), world (24), war (23), Chinese (22) - Top 10 least frequent words (excluding stop words): eliminate (1), erode (1), excite (1), expedition (1), favored (1), fence (1), flickering (1), flying (1), fourstroke (1), fractured (1) - Total conversation time: Approximately 1 hour 23 minutes (based on average speaking pace of 125 words per minute) ## 3. Sentiment Analysis The overall sentiment of the podcast episode is neutral to slightly negative. The conversation revolves around geopolitical challenges, conflicts, and potential future wars, which lends a somewhat somber tone. However, the participants engage in an objective and analytical discussion without excessive negativity. There are a few notable shifts in sentiment: - Positive sentiment when discussing India's growing global influence and potential to serve as a peacemaker - Negative sentiment when discussing China's aggressive actions and the lack of trust in India-China relations - Neutral sentiment during most of the factual geopolitical analysis and historical context ## 4. Topic Classification The main topics discussed in the episode include: 1. India-China relations - Key excerpts: "The existence of a bilateral dispute between India and China over the boundary question is hardly new, but we cannot normalize bloodshed in our bilateral ties." 2. Geopolitical conflicts and future wars - Key excerpts: "Wars cannot be imagined to be limited; they have the potential to expand with unpredictable consequences." 3. Changing nature of warfare and technology - Key excerpts: "The pace at which technology is changing today is awesome, and the advent of big data, artificial intelligence, and information technology has made drones extraordinarily important to warfare." 4. India's foreign policy and global role - Key excerpts: "India is the one country in the world today with a great deal of credibility. It has credibility because it is a country that is looking to build a values-based future for humanity." ## 5. Insights and Future Directions - The changing nature of warfare, with the increasing use of drones and asymmetric tactics by both state and non-state actors, requires nations to adapt their defense strategies and invest in counter-technologies. - The rise of transnational identities and online communities poses new challenges for nation-states in managing public opinion and navigating geopolitical issues. - India's growing economic and military power, coupled with its strategic partnerships and role as a voice for the Global South, positions it as a potential mediator in regional conflicts. However, India must carefully balance its relationships and interests. - The complex geopolitical landscape, with shifting power dynamics and the emergence of new global powers, necessitates a reevaluation of traditional alliances and the development of more nuanced, issue-based partnerships. ## 6. Key Takeaways 1. India and China must work to rebuild trust and resolve their border disputes peacefully, as the consequences of a military conflict could be severe and far-reaching. 2. The nature of warfare is evolving, with asymmetric tactics and advanced technologies like drones playing an increasingly important role. Nations must adapt their defense strategies accordingly. 3. India has the potential to serve as a global peacemaker, given its growing influence and credibility, but it must navigate complex geopolitical challenges and balance its relationships carefully. 4. The rise of transnational identities and online communities poses new challenges for nation-states in managing public opinion and navigating geopolitical issues. 5. The world is becoming more multipolar, with power becoming more diffused and new global powers emerging. This necessitates a reevaluation of traditional alliances and the development of issue-based partnerships. 6. India must continue to invest in its economic growth, military modernization, and strategic partnerships to secure its interests and play a constructive role in shaping the global order. 7. The Israel-Hamas conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war highlight the complexity of modern geopolitics and the difficulty of achieving lasting peace in regions with long-standing disputes and competing interests. 8. India's decision-making in the event of a China-Taiwan conflict would need to account for a wide range of factors, including its own security interests, strategic partnerships, and the potential for escalation.

Smita u have committed urself to lick clean every plate thrown at you by ur masters. I really want u to excel in ur life so that we may have a new competition to our Liaqat bhai ❤

When will India 🇮🇳 sign the land, air, sea 🌊 battle support treaty in ongoing and future battles around the Black Sea, Red Sea, Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea and the South China Sea?

SUMMARY This is a podcast transcript of a discussion between Smitha Prakash from ANI and Ambassador Sujan Chinoy, director of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis, about India's foreign policy, bilateral relations with China, the US and other countries, and future potential geopolitical conflicts. IDEAS: - Drones have emerged as a very potent instrument of modern warfare, used by both state and non-state actors in asymmetric ways - Large military powers are hard to conclusively defeat in their own geographies even if they appear spent - National identity is being challenged by the rise of transnational constituencies enabled by globalization and social media - India has credibility on the global stage as a voice for the Global South while maintaining good relations with the West - India should give Hindi names to Chinese villages and towns created in Aksai Chin to assert its territorial claims - The Russia-Ukraine war has become a proxy war and will likely not end anytime soon as it involves many external powers - China's unilateral and aggressive expansion of economic and military power is creating tensions with India and in the region - India would have to carefully consider the continental challenges and implications of any involvement in a potential US-China conflict over Taiwan - Hamas is difficult to eliminate as it has evolved from a non-state actor to a quasi-state actor with political power and territorial control - India condemned terrorism by Hamas against Israel but also reiterated its position on a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine QUOTES: - "Wars cannot be imagined to be limited, they have the potential to expand with unpredictable consequences." - "The existence of a bilateral dispute between India and China over the boundary question is hardly new, but we cannot normalize bloodshed in our bilateral ties." - "India condemned terrorism right from the word go when the attacks took place on Israel, but the second part of our position beyond condemning terrorism was also to reiterate our old position that you require a two-state settlement there - a Palestinian state coexisting peacefully alongside Israel." - "As far as Aksai Chin is concerned, on the territorial aspects of India's claims, the United States maintains neutrality." - "Ukraine has the backing today of the West, including the United States of America, so it's not a question of simply Russia and Ukraine sitting down together and trying to achieve peace, it's much more complex." - "Can Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, but more relevantly a country that possesses 6,000 nuclear warheads, can it be conclusively defeated in its own geography?" - "Hamas is very difficult to eliminate...when non-state actors transit into being quasi-state actors and when they acquire political power and territorial control, they become very potent." - "India is also now increasingly a voice for the Global South." - "On our own Punjab border there are a very large number of drones that Pakistan deploys today to drop drugs especially on our side." - "There are three parties to the Kashmir dispute, not two - China is not only holding Aksai Chin which is part of the erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir but also in possession of the trans-Karakoram tract of the Shaksgam." FACTS: - India and China have a long-standing bilateral territorial dispute, with China occupying Aksai Chin which India claims. - The US recognizes Arunachal Pradesh as part of India based on the McMahon Line, but maintains neutrality on India's claims to Aksai Chin. - Japan and Australia regard Arunachal Pradesh as part of India but consider Aksai Chin to be part of China. - In 1954, the US and Taiwan entered into a mutual defense treaty which segued into the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 after the US established relations with China. - The Taiwan Relations Act states the US does not support Taiwan independence but would provide arms for its defense. - China has never ruled out using force to reunify Taiwan and passed an Anti-Secession Law in 2005 asserting this. - Pakistan ceded the Shaksgam tract to China under a 1963 boundary agreement, but India considers it part of the erstwhile princely state of J&K. - The UN website states there are still 17 colonies in the world today possessed by 4 powers, all of whom are democracies. - Hamas originally emerged as a non-state Sunni fundamentalist group but later acquired political power and territorial control in Gaza. - India's position is that Israel-Palestine conflict requires a two-state solution with a Palestinian state coexisting peacefully alongside Israel. REFERENCES: - The UN website which lists 17 colonies in the world today under 4 powers - The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 between the US and Taiwan - China's Anti-Secession Law of 2005 asserting right to use force to reunify Taiwan - The 1963 boundary agreement between China and Pakistan ceding Shaksgam to China RECOMMENDATIONS: - India should bolster its capabilities in drones and counter-drone technologies to deal with the threat posed by drones to national security. - India must reject China's unilateral renaming of places in Arunachal Pradesh and give its own names to Chinese villages and towns in Aksai Chin. - India should leverage its good relations with both Russia and the West to position itself as a potential mediator for peace in the Ukraine conflict. - India must remain focused on managing the continental challenges and threats from China rather than getting involved in potential US-China conflicts in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea. - The Quad partners US, Japan and Australia should reconsider their positions on Aksai Chin and stop considering it as part of China to demonstrate their strategic partnership with India. - India should continue providing humanitarian aid to Palestine while condemning terrorism by Hamas, and push for a peaceful two-state solution. - India must be cognizant of the disruptive impact of transnational identity politics fueled by social media on national positions. - India should devote more resources to developing semiconductor manufacturing through international collaborations to reduce supply chain risks. - India must assert its position strongly on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and highlight Pakistan's illegal transfer of Shaksgam to China. - Democratic nations should introspect on the vestiges of colonialism and territories still possessed by some of them.

1:21:05 The inconsequentiality of pak is due to inconsequenciality of Delhi(zimmi) centric perspective. Now PMO is more of a western India derived perspective of Hindutva, and therefore BJP being a political arm of the RSS is more concerned about meeting, addressing and taking on challenges for every Hindu facing him in the world.

India should declare no one China policy,officially.China has broken all agreements to date,and therefore, recogning Tibet as a separate country will set a trend for other countries in UN to follow.

🙏🙏🌼🌼

How n when war fear can end world wide?

China could subdue other nations but not India & that changed the world: (1)When Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo was awarded Nobel Prize in 2010 in Norway, China banned imports of Norwegian salmon fish, Norway’s major export & Norway pleaded helplessness. (2) In 2012, China took control of Vietnam’s Paracel Islands & Vietnam could only protest, (3) In 2012, China refused to vacate Philippines' Scarborough shoal island violating an agreement negotiated by Obama & Obama abandoned the US Security Treaty Partner Philippines. (4) In 2013 China established “East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone” over Japan’s Senkaku island & Japan only protested. (5)That encouraged China to stealthily occupy Spratly Islands in April, 2015 to get control of strategic Indo-Pacific oceanic passage, (6) Instead of demanding China's withdrawal, Xi Jinping was given welcome visit to White House where on Sept 25, 2015 he promised not to militarize illegally annexed Spratly Islands.! Xi then militarized them within 2 yrs. (7) On the Afghan front, China bled US & NATO in blood & treasure through its proxy Pakistan, got strategic CPEC access to Indian Ocean & finally handed them humiliating Afghan expulsion. (8) China clandestinely helped N. Korea get nuclear-missile capability to hit US mainland converting it into successful Cuba of 1962. (A) No body could physically block the belligerent Communist except India. In 2017, when China illegally entered Doklam to threaten India’s North-East. It was physical blockage of Chinese Communist Army by Indian Army plus rise of Indian people to boycott Chinese goods which made 400 Chinese Managers jobless with 30% drop in VIVO & OPPO sales within 2 weeks, that alarmed nervous China. Trump finally took hint & in 2018 put 25% tariffs on 6,800 Chinese goods worth whopping $250Bn & sent his Pacific fleet to physically challenge belligerent Communist in the SCS. (B) Again when India was under Covid-19 lock down from April 2020, Xi thinking Coronavirus highly contagious, non-treatable & very fatal causing Wuhan-type economic standstill invaded Ladakh. Again rapid blockage of Communist Army by Indian Army despite raging pandemic put spanners in Xi Jinping’s dream of having garden walk into PoK to secure CPEC. US realized importance of India & upgraded QUAD. India earned its place. Two QUAD countries Australia & Japan are linked through bilateral security treaties with the US. India stands out as an independent nuclear weapons power with large military that does not need the US treaty of mutual defense but can strengthen QUAD both in Indo-Pacific ocean region & by pinning down Communist army along entire 3,500km long Indo-Tibetan border. Ladakh infiltration will prove to be the Himalayan blunder of Xi Jinping.

An Advisor to PM and all he talks about is Peace and Harmony. Let me tell you people, We are not getting Aksai Chin or POK back soon. I feel like, Nehru and Gandhi are back in Power.

India superpower, Streets are clean, Inddians respect women and there is no scamming culture

Invite Ami Ganatra

He's essentially asking us not to take the sidekicks or puppets seriously 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Dialogue with china will keep on happening but china will also continue to exhibit aggression. Prooved multiple times . With Pakistan, it's different....when there's Dialogue, there's more aggression.

LV shirt

U should have asked the Ambassador whether these talks are even expected to achieve anything?

Algorithm++

Can someone please tell him how to pronounce Tiawan. It's not Thai wan.

Please invite Ajit Doval sir

Y !! Let him comfortably turn 😢😢😢😢

Line of questions could have been better. Missed opportunities

At least people admitting slowly slowly about Chinese aggression on Indian border.

Gosthana is the original name of aksai chin.

Regarding defending our borders and standing against China, it is a feasibility only if Modi comes to power. Otherwise if Rahul, kejriwal, mamata, stalin comes to power, rest assured they will be supporting China in the war against Taiwan

Do it in hindi

So what is to gain from an independent body to talk to the Chinese one that is marching to the Chinese state!😮

Amazing podcast Mam.. But aap night suit me kyu aayi ?

What about Indian historical existence in Gansu and Tibet, why not stake India,s traditional claims to such places there??

How the world became so dependent on Taiwan for such an important product like semi conductor chips knowing that taiwan is always under the threat of China

Hii

This Ambassador Expects Xina To Be Transparent In It's Dealings With US. Imagine the state of mind of our so called intellectual community. Government to change hui but system abhi bhi unka hai. Sad

I can see clear fear of china I hope you speak same how you speak on pakistan matter

Can Mr.Chinoy analyse Xi jing ping thoughts😅

China fail to read India's present leadership of Modi.India is a rising power n not beholden to any big power

five contneet 3/4eeewatory would

Poor Smita struggling to get this man to talk faster by preempting his points 😆

Jab app military exercise kerte hai matlab yudh ki taiyari hai. American think (Carnegie endowment)ne waje sawal kia Taiwan stress main US China conflict main Bharat ka kya roal hoga ? Comment "yeh samay yudh ka nahi hai"? Neutral ! (We are non alignment country !) Quad (planned by US, but presented by Japan)ka kya? Aur dava kerna ham US ke Bighest defence allies hai. Mr, Chenoi sab kuchh chhupa Gaye, Shidhi se baat hai ki Taiwan conflict Indian Navy ko samne aana hoga, Ladakh akchai chin Mansarovar,sare morcha kholane honge .

I'm the only who are thinking... 🤔Why He is look like a A.C.P Pradyuman

Ek aur alpha male

He looks like Gen. Md Zia-Ul-Haq

India should also give tibetan villages on China's side tibetan names😅

So the Indian claim what the british has colonized even bit of tibet. But could not keep retain Pakistan, bangladesh, Ceylon.

?????????????????????

And then you go round and round and then he goes round and round and then nothing happens until China grabs another territory which is less than our threshold of war. They know that. Question is when would you stop being so predictable. Do to them what they are doing to you simple... Ccp... Cut.. Copy... Paste.

40:38 @ANINewsIndia why u edited his original answer for this question

Kashgar certainly was founded by Buddhists fled from Nalanda massacre...it was named based on Kashi ( kashi nagar ). Are you sure Palestinians want separate territory and co exist with Israel ?? No ! They want all of land for themselves and extinction of Jews ! I live in west asia and every time by everyone speaks same sentences. They also want similar thing about kashmir...only Muslims have right over there. So no one gets impressed when i quote Our MEA stand ....yes they don't have any issue with ppl in Gaza strip getting killed. There are so many Palestinians all over west asia and west ..all are 100% same stand.

Y indian diplomats r Afraid of china

Why is he so defensive?

How-ti 😂

US is the reason the world is enjoying prosperity but it has also become arrogant.But as US economy is slowing down India's going up the world will be looking up India

Give arunachali name's