Yes, I can see Denmark in 10th place, probably as a televote non-qualifier which was saved by global voting. And Poland missing it out by just 2 or 3 points, him being 5th or sixth in the global voting, while Blanka only getting 1 or 2 points, edging her out by 3 to 5 points, which might be enough to have an overall advantage of 2 or 3 points. And then, suddenly, all of these Polish trolls writing hate messages and spreading conspiracy theories about her, are doing a 180 and are hating on Reiley, calling him different names (gay, a kid posing as an adult, and who knows what else, and saying, his staging was too colorful, downvoting his performance in masses, and criticizing his vocoder effect, which would lead normal people to confuse other normal people criticizing this effect with Polish hate posters), they would demand a birth certificate to ensure, he's actually at least 16 years old, and would call for him to be disqualified. They would also call the global voting rigged. And would write comments like 'robbed queen', decrying the fact that she didn't pass through, albeit qualifying with both the televote and the global vote. Lots of RU-vid commentators would notice and release videos on these Polish RU-vid section trolls, comparing things they're writing post Eurovision to anti-Blanka hate posts that the exact same users have made prior to Eurovision. But it could also be the case that both Denmark and Poland are tied for 10th place, but Reiley advances, because he got points from more countries than Blanka, who had benefited from diaspora voting, which all would lead to the same effect as aforementioned scenario. And I also agree on every other one of your qualifiers, but we will see.
Great video Rachel. Well here are my predictions for semi 2. In no particular order Qualifiers 1. Austria 2.Georgia 3.Cyprus 4.Armenia 5.Australia 6.Estonia 7.Slovenia 8.Poland 9.Lithuania 10.Iceland Non qualifiers. 11.Denmark 12.Belgium 13.Greece 14.San Marino 15.Romania 16.Albania Despite all the controversy surrounding Blanka and TVP, I still don’t think she will have an issue qualifying because the song itself is fine. In many ways I’d prefer it not to qualify because I don’t believe that corruption should be rewarded. But then again, Monika lynkete was also the produce of corruption since she was also friendly with two members of the Lithuanian national jury and didn’t win the public vote either. Rutu Mur should have been sent since she won the televote. And San Marino was also a fake national final since there was never any public vote and piqued jacks was all decided in a Smokey back room . 💰🤝💰
my predictions: 1. Austria 🇦🇹 2. Australia 🇦🇺 3. Georgia 🇬🇪 4. Armenia 🇦🇲 5. Cyprus 🇨🇾 6. Belgium 🇧🇪 7. Estonia 🇪🇪 8. Slovenia 🇸🇮 9. Lithuania 🇱🇹 10. Albania 🇦🇱 11. Poland 🇵🇱 12. Greece 🇬🇷 13. Denmark 🇩🇰 14. Iceland 🇮🇸 15. Romania 🇷🇴 16. San Marino 🇸🇲 It’s really difficult to place all entries from 9th to 14th but at the moment this is just what i’m thinking.
Slovenia will definitely rank higher, as undoubtedly will Iceland. I also don't think Belgium will rank that highly. Other than that, these are quite reasonable predictions, I would say.
I totally agree with you on Belgium. I think people are underestimating it a lot. Honestly, if Poland does qualify it's gonna probably be because of the "bejba" meme moreso than the diaspora. A part of me reallyyyyy hopes Albania qualifies. Hopefully the staging is better and voters find her amazing belting and the family appealing and all that.
Agreed,the bejba memes are the only thing keeping Poland afloat at this point cause the diaspora and the community is still pretty pissed off because of what happened🥲
Gustaph is quite a good vocalist but in all seriousness, the song is so repetitive that I feel like I cannot wait for it to end. There is no variation in it, it goes nowhere. The casual viewer won’t like this.
hmm. 1. austria, teya and salena are excellent vocalists + the song has massive appeal. 2. australia - they're going to bring the house down, the song is still accessible for a heavier rock song and they're fabulous performers 3. georgia - iru is a winner of the voice for a reason, i feel like the lyrics won't matter so much on a first pass anyway 4. armenia - even if the song is a bit hit or miss for people, brunette's charm and vocals I think pull it all together and if they come with a great stage it should do really well 5. slovenia - the song is great, very accessible, a nice "British" sound, the guys are super charismatic and comfy on stage too. 6. cyprus - good voting pool, and at least it's a poppy ballad, as long as he gets the vocals right on the night he should do fine, people do love a good looking guy with a great voice. 7. belgium - people who love this will vote for it, I know it. gustaph and his back up dancers are absolute pros and will nail the vibe on the night. 8. lithuania - this spot could be estonia or lithuania, but i think with diaspora, no jury and running order, lithuania is going through. not crazy about either song but damn these two can sing and I want both of them in. 9. albania - i think this will be a breath of fresh air for some people, and those who appreciate ethnic music with quality voices will come out for this. not for me, but I am hoping they go through so I can see Mama and Papa Kelmendi celebrate on the big screen :)) 10. .....greece??? he might just slip through. i think the race for the tenth spot will be close. i think romania will not come last, I think unfortunately that'll be San Marino. if Poland qualifies, they will come last in the final.
@@krunoslavkovacec1842 a scenario where they obscure her weaknesses enough with back up vocals and dancers (not being shady or rude). it's not what I want but the song has had massive airplay and streaming for a reason; disco polo has its fans. in a televote final, she might be able to squeak in. also, well, I won't make predictive accusations or anything but not all broadcasters play fair...
@@krunoslavkovacec1842 In a scenario in which people outside of the eurofans will like an up-beat song with a dance break since we don't have a song like that in the 2nd semi apart from Solo
okay: i got slovenia in the right spot, albania in the right spot but everything else is off. staging made a huge difference for a lot of these songs; elevating australia, bringing down austria, bringing up poland, bringing down greece in a huge way and ultimately sealing georgia's nq as well i think. pleased that the 10th spot went to estonia in the end and that we got both Alika and Monika into the final. i was neither right nor wrong about romania and san marino because they tied with a horrific 0 points. breaks my heart.
Semi 2, my qualification prediction after the pre-parties. 1. Austria 2. Australia 3. Georgia 4. Armenia 5. Cyprus 6. Estonia 7. Slovenia 8. Greece 9. Lithuania 10. Belgium Not qualifying: Denmark Iceland Romania San Marino Albania Poland So for semi 2 I straight up agree with the bookies, unlike in semi 1 where I disagree with them.
Here's my little prediction of the results: 1. Austria 2. Australia 3. Slovenia 4. Georgia 5. Denmark 6. Lithuania 7. Cyprus 8. Armenia 9. Greece 10. Albania 11. Belgium 12. Poland 13. Estonia 14. Iceland 15. San Marino 16. Romania So I'm pretty sure on the top 6 and mostly sure on the top 8, however I feel like it's the final two spots that will be a bit more competitive. I will clarify that the reason I have Denmark so high is just through a feeling I have that he'll get way more votes than expected. He has an image that will appeal to younger voters in particular as well. I've put Greece through for a few reasons. First I think the running order helps him a lot, plus I feel like based on last year they could have some pretty cool staging. Also, they do have a lot of allies in the semi who'll likely give at least some votes to him. If he doesn't qualify it'll not be by much. My final spot went to Albania but this one is a bit up in the air for me. The two most similar entries to this are 2019 and 2021, where Ktheju Tokes qualified because of televote and Karma would not have qualified with televote. I think this has less appeal than both of them but there are also less countries to beat. Also they have less neighbours due to the non-participations of many countries, but they still do have neighbours. This would be 12th minimum and 9th maximum so we'll have to see. Belgium is one that I actually probably will have as a qualifier by the time May comes around. I'm slightly comparing this to Israel last year but this comes off way less diva-ish and he's a more appealing performer, plus the dynamic with the backing singers is nice. I think this could be a shock televote top 5 in the semi if everything goes to plan. Poland is honestly just bad in almost every regard, however I think I've been seeing that this is starting to chart in a few countries in Europe so that makes me think this could actually get through. It's the only girl bop in this semi but it's also pretty forgettable. I'm not expecting great staging either but there's a diaspora who may give some points. On the fence about this one. See Estonia is one I really want to qualify but I think everything is kinda working against this. This would have sailed through with juries here but this is the type of act that is usually very borderline with televote, or at least much lower. The running order isn't helping it either being so early, following Armenia and preceding Belgium. Also they don't have a lot of neighbours in the semi. I just fear that out of all the ballads this may be the forgotten one. If this makes it to the final though, this will do extremely well with juries. And the bottom three are my DOA entries. Iceland just doesn't stand out enough to be anyone's favourite I think. It's like the type of song that people will have as their 4th favourite but not high enough to vote for, meaning this will just miss out to me. San Marino is totally overshadowed by Slovenia and Australia and Romania has gotten a terrible running order spot and is pretty forgettable so I don't see anything happening to surprise.
As a Pole im gonna say one thing - PLEASE don't vote for my country. We can't support what TVP has done, and if Blanka qualify... well, that will be a major win for TVP, that will assure them they did the right thing rigging the NF.
I agree. If TVP are rewarded for the rigging in any way, they will repeat it since the EBU won't do anything to stop them. So I hope that the people who can vote/not vote in semi 2 helps Poland out. Good luck, I will keep my fingers crossed for you. ❤
@@nian60 EBU should also change its policy about that, ok broadcaster chose how it wants to choose their representatives but if any decides to run a selection they should when the people are paying money to vote, it should at least respect some standards as honesty and transparency.
Theodore (Romania) says the staging will be change for Eurovision and he have a revamp who it played in the semifinal and the karaoke version in the album is the new version
Hi! Once again, I love the analysis and thoughtfulness you put into the selections, and with all the caveats you mentioned applying, I think the qualifiers will be as follows (I can't put them in order but I'll try to roughly do top 5 and bottom 5 of the top 10, and then the NQs 1. Austria 2. Australia 3. Slovenia (in the semis this will do well, but I actually think it won't do so well in the final) 4. Armenia 5. Lithuania (In the pre-parties at, she performed a couple of songs before Alika, and I completely blanked on Alika afterwards, this for me is the top ballad, and her singing is incredible - you should check her version of Jamala's winning song 1944 that just came out tonight on the Eurovision channel, she is just an incredible live performer - also, large lithuanian diaspora too). 6. Belgium (after the pre-parties in Madrid and Amsterdam where I saw the reception he got, there is no doubt in my mind he qualifies - and I'm not biased just because I live in Belgium :p) 7. Georgia 8. Iceland (Watching this live in Amsterdam changed my mind - it wasn't on my list, now it is) 9. Estonia (this for me could be the shock NQ due to running order and I think Lithuania and Iceland will be the ones people pick up the phone for more) 10. Poland (this is borderline - my concern isn't diaspora, I think it's clear enough that diaspora won't vote for it in droves, it's more that the song is catchy and if they cover her vocals in backing vocals then televoters might only notice the song). NQs Cyprus (I want this to qualify ahead of Poland, but it won't break my heart if it doesn't) Greece (could shock and qualify, but it's completely off my radar at the minute) Denmark (Live, it's a disaster. They need to do something dramatic to fix it). Romania San Marino Albania (that family vibe is so awkward live on stage - I was standing in front of the father in Amsterdam and it was really like the drunken father of the bride at a wedding not understanding what's going on)
Yes, I agree. I really hope, that Alika would qualify, but I'm concerned, it could be a NQ. And yes, Albania should have stuck to their previous selection format and sent Elsa to Eurovision, not only had her song Evita more televote potential, it's also the case that not everyone in Albina's family is a good vocalist, and it sometimes sounded cringe. Evita would have been a safe qualifier, while this might ultimately not pass through.
@@apo8021 I mean, it would be a shock if it didn't, but to me it's too dicey. I just think Switzerland is better (obvs not same semi) and so many people are writing Switzerland off. So I don't see why Cyprus wouldn't potentially suffer the same fate. Having said that, Switzerland is qualifying for me borderline and Cyprus borderline NQ because many ***** people will vote for Poland because it's catchy. Also, semi final voter demographic is different to the final. If Cyprus gets to the final it'll do decently. Switzerland probably less well. But in the semis, that's how I see it for now - rehearsals can change everything of course. And I don't doubt Andrew's vocals at all. I just think it'll get lost.
@@apo8021 I know - I said that in the comment above. I'm just saying that it's weird people writing off Switzerland and much fewer writing off Cyprus. Both are borderline for me, but I just happen to think Switzerland will qualify in their semi due to vocals and I think they'll bring good staging, and Cyprus will just miss out in theirs. That's all.
I actually think Greece could have enough support in this semi to qualify. Whether it should qualify over 6 other songs however is a different story...
I'm really hoping Australia will get through despite our usual poor performance in the televote. If we get through, I think a top 10 finish in the final is a good possibility. Go Voyager. 🇦🇺
Australia doesn't do that poorly in the televote in the semi finals, we haven't been lower than 8th in the televote apart from Isaiah in 2017 and Montaigne in 2021
Greece is definitely qualifying in my opinion, they have Cyprus and Albania which will probably be 24 points, they also have Armenia and Romania who have historically voted for Greece quite often as well as the UK and Belgium, which can give Greece some diaspora votes. Their singer is half Danish and Denmark is in this semi-final as well. Whether it is deserved is another (valid) discussion (it’s 10th-12th in this semi for me), but I’m at least 95% sure that Greece will qualify
Uk and Belgium voting for Greece? Since when? Also Albania last year gave 10 points to Greece with a better song and artist so now why will they give Greece 10 or 12?
I highly doubt Albania will 12 Greece this year. The song is weak and does not have any cultural element that represents the country, which is something that Albania often rewards when it comes to their neighbour's entries. Also, despite Victor being half-Danish, unless he is somewhat known there, I don't see Denmark giving high points to Greece, if not any
SF1 is hard because it's a bloodbath. SF2 is hard to predict since it's so open. Here's my prediction in alphabetical order: - Armenia, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Georgia, Lithuania & Slovenia will qualify - Romania & San Marino won't qualify - Albania, Denmark, Greece & Poland will fight for the last spot
I doubt your musical taste but there is no doubt that you are graceful, you convey your interpretation in an interesting and pleasant way. My qualifiers are: Australia, Lithuania, Albania, Austria, Georgia, Slovenia, Iceland, Cyprus, Estonia, Armenia
I don't need Greece in the final, but considering the 12 from Cyprus, Albania and the fake televote from San Marino, and they usually get strong points from the Caucasus, I can't see him NQ...
I think Cyprus vocals could be an issue. Looking at his performance at Australia Decides, I'm concerned. He also has that 'eyes closed' habit, especially in falsetto and belting, which can be a televote problem in terms of connecting/ engaging. Hope he proves me wrong but I think polls/predictions are missing this risk
He sounded great at the Sydney Eurovision preview party and am quite confident Cyprus will have pretty good staging this time around. Safe qualifier IMO
What I think - Denmark - Borderline. This is a really sticky entry to judge because that wall-e robot voice is obviously illegal under the rules. So it all depends on if he can pull it off on stage. Armenia - Qualify. She really does well with the vocals and Armenia will probably do some cool staging. I do however think because it's a televote only semi final that she'll squeak in at 8th or 9th place where she may have gotten 4th or 5th in a traditional semi. Romania - Borderline. It all comes down to them really. Because I think this classic rock vibe will appeal to a decent chunk of viewers but it will only work if they clean up the staging. As much as I love the song that staging needs improvement. Also I know you hate this one but try reading it as a reverse siren song and see if that changes things for you. I think it might. Estonia - Non Qualify. Look I'm not saying this because of Alika. That piano would make Liberace cry into his bedazzled handkerchief. But I think she is at a serious disadvantage in a televote only semi and her running order. If there was a jury she'd probably be in like Flynn but sadly I think it'll get lost on the fray. My mother who usually leans on the side of liking the ballads was really bored by this one and that is not good. Belgium - Qualify. Fun , catchy , danceable and I think it'll be an entry that old and young alike will enjoy. Cyprus - Qualify. This is my mom's favorite of the year and I think he'll really appeal to "Awwwww what a nice boy" 45+ ladies crowd. The bigger question is how long will it take before it gets used in a car commercial? I'm going to say a month. Iceland - Borderline. She has the means , she has the technology but I think she is disadvantaged by the running order. This is the one I think will really depend on the day. Greece - Non Qualify. Victor will come back in like 5 years and probably win the whole thing but this is just not his time or his song to do that with. His entry makes me question if there needs to be a teen Eurovision. Because there is JESC but it caps at 14 and I just don't think 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 year olds are ready for the big time. That isn't a dig at Victor or anyone his age just fact. On the other hand it would be unfair on younger competitors in JESC to lump them in all together. Maybe you could do it as one event over two days - day 1 is 8-13 and day 2 is 14-18 , have two winners and then have the audience vote for who they want to host post contest. Just a thought. Poland - Qualify. Before you all drag me , I know that some tomfoolery took place. I know. But I think 95% of those watching will not know about it or will not care. And it's fun , it's catchy and it comes after a ballad. If it helps once a jury is involved I think it won't do well in the final but I think that's on the table. Slovenia - Qualify. I feel pretty confident saying this is a qualifier. People have really attached to this song and Joker's out and so I don't see a reality where this NQs. Georgia - Borderline. It's powerful and she has the pipes to pull it off but I could see people look at the lyrics and go what is this? San Marino - Non-Qualify. It's not a bad song but that one lyric makes I and everyone else go BARFFFFF. You know you're on the struggle bus when the delegation has to be like "Hey can you stop bullying the band please." Austria - Borderline. I hope I'm wrong and it qualifies without a hitch because this is my favorite of the year. But I could also see older voters go what is this and go for Cyprus or Iceland instead. Albania - Non-qualify. Usually I'd say qualify because of the family element. But it's hard to say that helps when the family looks like they've been held hostage on stage. Also I know 95% of people won't know the lyrics or the meaning behind this song and how it ties into Albina's personal life (which I don't care about but oh boy is it hypocritical) but I think those who do know will find it really icky. Lithuania - Qualify. I love the gospel elements and I think it'll be a nice soft but beautiful song winding down. Australia - Qualify. Perfect closer , upbeat and fun.
so sad for Piqued Jacks too because it seems like this song is an unfortunate blip for an otherwise good band for their genre. wish they'd sent it in italian instead.
Albania is the only entry I'm rooting to qualify in this line-up. I meant the other entries I like were safe qualifiers but for some reason Albania is overlooked upon by the fandom that I couldn't grasp. Very likely to NQ because at the end of the semi it is only televoting thus what's majority of fandom thinks really plays a big role on that outcome that it really could NQ at a higher chance.
Yes, Evita would have been more suitable for televoters anyway, they shouldn't have changed the rules. But selecting one song that should represent them at Eurovision AND electing a FIK winner at the same time actually just represents their state flag. They probably would have made it through with juries put in place, but with this system, I'm concerned about them.
@@in_wino_veritas I think exactly the opposite. Albina was chosen by televote. Elsa Lila was awarded a huge result by jury. So I think Albania did a smart choice putting the televote winner to Eurovision.
I don't know what to think about Poland but I don't think a dance break will help Blanka to go through.. Because of the memes I think she has a chance. Also bit of a hot take, but I'm really not sure about the qualification of Estonia.
Can help or No, after the bridge she has some vocal parts so either they will use backvocals or she will manage to practice a lot with her voice before, I wouldn’t count on diaspora… they did not vote for Rafal, she will get less votes than she could from them. Her getting in the finals depends mostly on her performance
Agree that Belgium can get in. Not sure Greece is a certain NQ. Victor is kinda charming. Personally, I think Cyprus has a more memorable ballad than Estonia, which is a snoozefest for me.
Hi, I tend to agree with you, but I am not sure if both Estonia and Lithuania will qualify I see them stealing votes from each other.. Denmark and Poland could go through only if their vocals are really on top and the staging is fantastic.
What I think will happen: Definately Q: Austria Georgia Slovenia Australia Probably Q: Estonia Cyprus Armenia Could be Shock Q: Poland Greece Could be Shock NQ: Lithuania Belgium Iceland Probably NQ: Albania Denmark Definately NQ: Romania San Marino
pretty much agree. re poland: I guess it might depend on how well the polish diaspora is tuned into the controversy about blankas win in the national final and if they are turned off by that
idk if this says much but im in ireland (big polish diaspora) and my pretty casual esc watcher polish friend was aware of the controversy, so certainly its getting around idk to what extent tho
This is a very difficult show to predict and a lot will depend on the staging every country brings. Denmark, Greece and Albania are interesting ones in that respect. Belgium's looking more like a qualifier now and I'm pretty sure Lithuania will be going through as well. The top two in the UK's public vote will almost certainly be Poland and Lithuania too.
The subject is how they represent every song on live. Some songs maybe they will change presentation. I think we will have surprises,looking forward to see 2nd semi final. Many songs especially those are underrated ( like greece for example or estonia ) will surprise many friends of Eurovision.
I was doing a vote (my qualifiers, not predictions) and I wished I could change 2 songs of place. I have 11 I want to see Q in semi 1 and 9 in semi 2. This semi is definitely more open.
As for the diaspora voting: Blanka is not getting any this year. People are still pissed about the corruption in the Polish NF, and the topic is still very much alive in the Eurovision and social media in Polish. The scandal was covered in both gossip media and serious political journalist sources (e.g. in Gazeta Wyborcza or OKO Press). People won't forget. Rafał in 2021 did not get any support from the Polish diaspora and his "fault" was only being the internal selection of a TVP employee (that snubbed the opportunity of the 2020 representative Alicja, who had better song and much better vocals, and a huge public support), even if according to the rules. Blanka is a face of a voting scandal, a nepo baby, and "won" in rigged preselection as the broadcaster's puppet. And her vocals are literally non-existent, Rafał was mediocre but still much better than her. She may get a few token "I vote for my country no matter what" votes, but that's about it.
This semi is impossible to call, I have so many borderlines Likely Qualifiers: Armenia Estonia Belgium Slovenia Georgia Austria Australia Borderline: Denmark - As an opener, I don't know if this one will be memorable enough for people to vote for it. Would have been more likely later on in the running order. Cyprus - This song is too generic for me, and I don't know how much the public will go for it. Vocals are a concern as well as his Australia Decides performance was terrible. Iceland - If she went full into the dnb I'd give this a better chance. Right now I don't know if this stands out enough. Greece - It's hard to write off in such an open semi, this one has some charm in it that televoters might like enough to scrape it through. They have a lot of friends here as well, or else I'd probably be less convinced. Cyprus, Albania, Denmark (Victor is Danish) and 2 Caucas countries (they seem to vote for Greece a lot). Albania - Personally I think this can qualify, but so many people don't seem sold on the song, so I can't say it's likely. Lithuania - This one is probably more likely than not with the diaspora, but I'm still not completely sold on the song. It's got a nice hook but it's overall quite generic and not that impactful. Not Qualifying: Romania - Worst song of the year in my opinion. Too much of a mess to go through, I don't see many voting for this at all. Poland - This song is totally disposable, AND it has a bad performance. The diaspora won't save this either - they did almost nothing for Rafal and Blanka is even more controversial. San Marino - I'd honestly be surprised if this doesn't come last.
Winner: Austria (with a funny staging this can easily win) Definitely Q: Australia, Slovenia, Armenia Likely Q: Cyprus, Lithuania, Poland (90+% of the people who'll be watching won't know about the nf so this pop upbeat song will go through) Fence-sitting: Estonia, Iceland, Denmark, (Denmark is 100% qualifiyng if he can sing live though) Georgia (can be a surprising NQ since Georgia doesn't do well with televote + in the end of the day it may be forgotten and lost in this chaotic semi ), Greece Going home: San Marino, Romania, Albania
My prediction : 1 : 🇬🇪 - 2 : 🇦🇹 - 3 : 🇸🇮 - 4 : 🇧🇪 - 5 : 🇵🇱 - 6 : 🇱🇹 - 7 : 🇪🇪- 8 : 🇦🇲 - 9 : 🇩🇰 - 10 : 🇦🇺 - I think 🇬🇪 is the dark horse this year. She will do better than everybody think, with both televote and the juries. We don't have to forget that most people who are voting are hearing the song for the first time, nobody will care about lyrics with those vocals, this music and a big staging. She could be the most impressive act of the second semifinal. - I know everyone hate her, but there is no way Poland is not qualifying with this bop and only televoting . "Bejba" will be iconic.
I want to make 2 brief points. 1. Greece is a certain qualifier imo because they couldn't have a more favourable set of countries voting in this semi: Denmark, Armenia, Romania, Cyprus, Georgia, Albania ... 2. I have a profound issue with the use of E. A. Poe as a phonetic gimmick in the Austrian song. While I do understand that one syllable words starting on a plosive are the best rhythm machine you can get (they couldn't have done it with Shakespeare or Droste-Hülsfoff f. e.), the literary universe represented by Mr. Poe doesn't not sit well with me regarding the music I am hearing. The world portrayed in Mr. Poe's work is a dark and scary one, full of sadism and either sexualised or even idealised violence against women: "The death, then, of a beautiful woman is, unquestionably, the most poetical topic in the world" is the core sentence of Mr. Poe's poetics. I am perfectly aware that the constant Poe references in the song will not disturb other people, but I am a historian of literature in the English language ... and I find myself unable to ignore the disturbing world of E. A. whenever I listen to the song.
Interesting. Thanks for the info. Most people won't know that though. (I knew who Poe was, but I didn't know what you wrote). I have seen several reactors listen to Austria's song, and despite the song explaining who Edgar is, the reactors go "I don't know who Edgar is" when the song has finished. So many people will listen to the song and still don't know who Edgar is. (I have even seen native English speakers say that, when they should understand the lyrics).
I looked at the predictions that I did a week or so ago for this semi, and I'm still not sure about some of my choices. But, as it stands, my definite (or not) qualifiers (in running order) are: 1 - Denmark (I feel he should just about make it despite, as you say, its immediate start right at the er, start) 2 - Armenia (no doubt about it, surely?) 3 - Estonia (solid enough) 4 - Belgium (obviously it's popular, despite my hatred of it🙂) 5 - Slovenia (poppy and upbeat - the best band this year, along with Australia) 6 - Georgia (this is more of a hope than a definite for me. It may change, but your comments make me think we've both got this one right) 7 - Austria (winning this semi by miles) 8 - Lithuania (not sure about this one since I made this list. It may drop into the maybes later, maybe) 9 - Australia (I'll be shocked if this fails) And fighting for the last spot are: Cyprus (I can't work out how popular this song actually is) Iceland (ditto) Greece (ditto!) Definitely out (or not) are: Romania (bye) Poland (they can't be any worse in 2024, so there's that) San Marino (smell you later) Albania (I think this MAY move up into the maybes once I actually see them do it at Eurovision, but for now I feel it will fail. I do love it though) The question about Poland is whether a lot of people who know about the whole selection debacle will punish them for that. As for the large number of people watching who will know nothing about that side of things, they'll be judging it based on the quality of the song and Blanka's vocal. Neither are not up to scratch for me, and I feel the public will agree. If it qualifies, I will TRULY be shocked. If it beats out Georgia I will be livid. If it gets rid of Belgium, well ... good old Blanka! LOL 🙂 I appreciate your confidence in Albania. I want it in so badly, but I'm holding off committing to it for now. Australia are in a similar position to We Are Domi last year - a memorable performance right at the end of their semi, thus seeing them through. And then given position one in the final. Robbed! Vesna - avenge their death! Let's hope Voyager don't get shafted in the same way. The ones I would LIKE to see through are Armenia, Slovenia, Georgia, Austria, Australia, and Albania. Fun fact - they all end in "ia". Only seventeen days to go until Eurovision week!
I’m not so sure …yes there is a large Greek/Cypriot population here in Oz…but…I honestly don’t think people who are not from that heritage will automatically vote for Cyprus just because he’s an Aussie …the’ll likely vote for a song/artist that appeals to them..
What I think will happen: (Point out that I tend to get my predictions right frequently) -Spain and Sweden will be top 2 in juries -Sweden will win both jury and televote -Spain will be top 3 in televote -Spain and Sweden will be 2nd and 1st respectively -Israel will be in the top 3 -Croatia will be top 10 -UK will be bottom because there's many commercial songs and her life is really poor -Switzerland will top 5 in semi, top 5 in jury, and overall top 10 -Serbia won't Q -Germany will be top 10 or close -France might not get top 10 -Ukraine will be near bottom -I could see Poland Qing and getting more televote than UK and Slovenia -Czechia will be bottom in both jury and televote -Georgia could reach top 5 in jury -Austria could get more televote than Finland
This is more like a hope.... ;-) 1. Slovenia 2. Austria 3. Australia 4. Greece 5. Armenia 🇦🇲 6. Lithuania 🇱🇹 7. Estonia 🇪🇪 8. Denmark 9. Cyprus 🇨🇾 10. Georgia ---------------‐---------------- 11. Poland 🇵🇱 12. Albania 🇦🇱 13. Belgium 14. Iceland 🇮🇸 15. Romania 🇷🇴 16. San Marino 🇸🇲
My fishy simulator prediction based on knowing practically nothing but the studio and possible NF performances, and initial reactions, random order in; - Cyprus (you can't break a broken Q streak, but you CAN restore it) - Slovenia (joker in) - Lithuania (she has a VERY lucky draw here, but I think it's safe enough to appeal to neutral voters needing a break from some of the crazier acts such as...) - Austria (Poe, Poe, Poe, Poe) - Greece (I DID say this was a fishy prediction...) - Armenia (*sniffle*) - Georgia (It's been... 84 years) - Belgium (given how engaging he was at the NF and how easy this song is on everyone's ears, I have little reason to doubt this) - Australia (it'll be alright!) - Estonia (BRIIIIIDGEEEEEETTT - I mean "BRIIIIIIDGEEEEEEESSS", who the hell is Bridget?!) I feel sure about seven of these, so that's one up on you! The other three (that is Greece, Estonia, Lithuania) could be replaced by pretty much anyone else with the highly probable exceptions of San Marino and Romania. Some rock fans may enjoy San Marino enough to pick the phone up for them, but is it enough? Romania may surprise us with their final plans. Plus they have countries with a diaspora community who may help it along (notably Spain), so I won't call it as a 100% no. But a very likely one nonetheless. The most obvious question mark of the last 3 I listed is of course Greece, but he may have JUST enough diaspora votes to get him through on 10th place (he's got Cyprus, Denmark, the Caucasus... not to be discounted.) Plus the song, nondescript as it may be, is not insultingly bad, at least I don't think so. Not higher than 9th, but still possible. Estonia, on paper, should be fine. But will people remember it? That's my biggest concern here. Lithuania will have its voters, diaspora, and people who like the catchiness of "ciuto tuto" enough. Denmark I feel is losing momentum, and I believe it could well get lost in the crowd. But the teen vote and K-Pop stans aren't to be discounted, so it may go through instead of Lithuania, Greece or Estonia. Albania is a potentially dangerous one, agreed. It's the only really ethnic track in semi 2, and it has its appeal. It just missed out when I made my prediction because nobody's really talking about it, but I get that that's hardly a reason to write it off. Poland is not likely imo. It won't be last place, I can guarantee that, but I think it's so amateurish and average that even most people outside of the community that don't know about the NF fiasco won't be very interested in this one. BUT - I could see it possibly being the "Sugar" of the year (coincidentally, that was my least fave that year too). Iceland is the wildcard AGAIN this year. I can see it replacing one of the last three, but I just don't find it memorable enough. WHAT A FRIGGIN TOUGH ONE. Differently from semi 1, where apart from the Nordics, nobody is locked in. I think the first seven from semi 2 are clear enough, but it's the last three that are stumping me. Somehow none of the latter qualifying (bar Estonia) make immediate sense to me but someone's gotta get it... we wait and see, I'll share the 2nd simulator results close to the day ^^
I think the organisers are hoping Belgium will draw the first half in the final = open the final. That's why he's not first in the semi. He can't open twice, and they'd rather have him open the final.
never write off Greece and Albania because of the song. They have huge diaspora and traditional voting countries. Polish people I am not so sure will support Blanka
I would like to agree with who you have as qualifying and who is not. They would be pretty much my choices too, though I'd rather Iceland than Albania (that song really doesn't do anything for me). Poland are the ones I just can't decide. It's become a meme with many Eurovision fans but I've seen so many Polish people angry at the way they picked their winner this year so I'm not sure the diaspora will vote for it. Edit: Cyprus have Greece AND Australia who might vote for them with Andrew being Australian and being in the NF for Australia alongside Voyager last year.
Please don't vote for Denmark. It's just so.... wet. I'm betting on Poland! ;-) Estonia's entry is really interesting. As long as Voyager go through, which I'm sure they will, I'm happy.
I really cant understand your enthousiasm for Australia's song , but I do understand that has this rock style without being nothing special . My prediction : 1. Austria 🇦🇹 2. Armenia 🇦🇲 3. Georgia 🇬🇪 4. Estonia 🇪🇪 5. Cyprus 🇨🇾 6. Slovenia 🇸🇮 7. Greece 🇬🇷 8. Belgium 🇧🇪 9. Australia 🇦🇺 10. Lithuania 🇱🇹 11. Albania 🇦🇱 12. Poland 13. Denmark 🇩🇰 14. Iceland 🇮🇸 15. Romania 🇷🇴 16. San Marino 🇸🇲
I have that feeling that Poland will qualify. It`s a shame but I like it as a song, it`s funny and catchy. And Blanka`s bejba- to die for😅 Bejba forever✌
