EV transition: Can the grid cope? The truth about Electric Utopia. | Auto Expert John Cadogan 

Other issue that will crash the grid is the rapidly rising electricity demand from AI in data centres.

Thank you for honouring Igor Sikorsky, John. I have been flying Sikorsky products since 1980 in my aviation career and worked for the company itself including one of my highlights of spending time with his son, Sergei. Igor was a genius and emigrated to the USA fleeing the Bolshevik revolution in 1919.

Just had an ACA story pop up about an older couple in a very expensive suburb in Sydney complaining about not being able to run an extension lead from their solar/house over the footpath to charge up their electric shopping trolley. Beats me how people manage to be intelligent enough to do well enough to live in these places but didn't think about this beforehand tbh.

Forget about lithium. Where we getting all this copper? Wind uses 3-5 times as much copper MW for MW. AND, they don't even run as often so you need more of them for the same amount power. The 143 7mw windmills would use 3-5 times the amount of a copper a 1gw power plant would use. Plus, you need the redundancy in the windmills, so maybe 250 instead of the 143. Plus all the additional wiring for the grid. Plus all the wiring for all the electric motors and very heavy cabling each motor needs between the battery and controller and between the controller and the motor.

Wind/solar arrays are designed to augment baseload not replace it. Once you try replacing coal, gas or nuclear with intermittent sources you're in a heap of trouble.

Trees do a great job scrubbing carbon out of the air. Just protect the forest.

We're a 5 person household, out average daily use of electricity is comparable to between a 2 and 3 person household. Same story with water. We cash in all our 10c drink vessels, put everything in the right bin. We have the smallest red (landfill) bin available and it's only ever half full. Our cars are serviced well and run properly. The kids all inherit clothes from each other and various cousins. We don't buy a lot of new clothes. I think we're doing more than most people to just consume less. But you can't drive your frugality around showing off its green virtue.

Ha Canberra canned the electric buses as the grid could not do it ... yet magically all these cars will be fine.

I made 15kwh lifeo4 battery using eve304 ah cells, for last one year, I have not imported any electricity from the grid, grid operators or retailers charge me 42 cents per kWh for import and pay only 3 cents per kWh for export, they are ripping off customers. The Government is doing nothing to stop this exploitation. I am plannings to go totally of-grid and from last one year experiment I realised 30kwh per home should be enough to go through Melbourne cloudy days. If you make your own 30Kwh, it will only cost around 4000 using lithium or sodium stable chemistry.

In Dunkirk, France, all busses have been free to use since 2017. Thus, there are lots of them and they are full, and the roads are less so. In Germany you can buy a €9 ticket that gives you unlimited transport for a month on all buses, trams and trains, except the fast intercity trains. Thus the trams and buses and trains are full, and the roads less so. And quick because there is no ticket or fare collecting.

I'm in the UK but my argument goes as follows. A filling station with 12 petrol and diesel pumps could theoretically service 144 vehicles an hour, assuming a 5-minute time to fill up and pay. Each vehicle would then have say 400-600 miles of range from it's fuel tank. If it had 12 EV chargers instead, even rapid ones, it could service something like 15 EVs per hour, flat out, given the best charge rates available. Each EV would then have more like 200-300 miles of realistic range. That's half the range for about 8 times the 'filling' time. Fuel pump power consumption is a fraction of EV charger power consumption, so the existing power supply to the site would be woefully inadequate. You'd therefore need to upgrade the power supply to the site, but then you get the problem that the power grid doesn't have the excess capacity to do that to all the relevant sites. The whole thing is the bright idea of people with no idea of the engineering requirements, hence they talk a load of BS. People are now realising that EVs are not utopia, hence they're now not selling so many!

Here in Alberta Canada we are in the middle of heat wave and we were warned yesterday that rotating power cuts was possible in the next few days, but still EV use has to grow without any plans on how the power will be made including the fact that by 2035 we have to be carbon free

Why is Nobody is talking about Shipping, Airplanes, Trains, Trucks and rockets, cars are fuck all compared to them.

Retired power industry technician here. Looking at your figures which appear to be spot on, just to cater for an all-electric EV fleet charging up at the same time, you're looking at an extra 5,500MW of generation. That's nearly 2 replacement Erarings or Loy Yang power stations. OK, doable, I guess. But if it's renewable generation then factor in 30% ACF for wind over a 24hr period (solar is even more restricted, obviously), and we're looking at around 15,000MW of extra, not replacement, generation to charge the EVs and spread around the place to capture all potential wind. Next, local distribution network, you know, the poles and wires as they are wont to say, need considerable beefing up. Local transformers are designed for "normal" loads such as intermittent use during the day and night times. Having, say, 300EVs all charging up at night in my neighborhood would require a bloody expensive tranny upgrade, not to mention larger transformers at the local sub-station, extra incoming transmission lines and so on. To carry the extra load, they'd have to up the supply voltage say, from 22kv to something higher if using existing conductors, upgrade the insulators then installed more HV to LV (anything above 1000v is considered "high voltage" in the industry) transformers along the streets. There are other ways but I'm simplifying it somewhat. The electrical engineers with whom I worked would love the challenge, especially those who have their own consultancies and engineering companies. Gold flowing all round. As mentioned above, it's all doable, but who's gonna pay for it all? Currently, here in Victoriastan we pay around $1 a day supply charge. I shudder to think what that will rise to to pay for all the infrastructure upgrades to cater for the EV charging stations at home. Sure, we can all get on the PV/Battery bandwagon, but even with rebates you're looking at a shitload of cash. Do we just top up the mortgage to pay for it? I got a quote last week. An extra 5kw of solar along with a 17kwh battery (giving me around 10kw of installed PV capacity) will set me back some $15,000. But that 17kwh of stored energy won't charge my 60kwh EV overnight. I haven't checked out your solar options as you're up in Sinney and I'm in rural Vic, unless you service all of Oz. I'll have to check.

Well, the world is apparently getting greener because of CO2. Plants will scrub it out. Didn't experts do research and found that CO2 levels were way higher in the past?

France is aiming for Net Zero with nuclear, apparently Australia isn't capable of doing that because we are hopeless.

Carbon capture is like putting in a urine filter to clean the pool water while 2 toddlers are standing at the other end pissing in the pool. How about potty training those toddlers?

Just as a real-world FYI, my EV has averaged 14.8 kWh per 100 km (indicated) this year. When measuring actual energy consumption at the plug, which accounts for charging losses, this figure increases to 16.1 kWh per 100km. I am not light-footed, so the quoted 17 kWh figure is likely reasonable. Of course, that doesn't account for full-size SUV EVs, I guess.

27:05 Being a Queenslander, I'm keen to see how overloaded or not our public transport becomes with the introduction of 50 cent flat rate fares on the 5th of August. I fear that this idea wasn't very well thought out by the political advisors who thought it up. In order for something like this to work, you also need to expand the reach of public transport and the frequency of services.

I’m off grid with solar and petrol generators and according to the estimated usage data I should be able to run on my batteries for several days - but, I have quickly found that I can empty my batteries in a day. So all this forecasting is fantasy… I now have to rearrange my work around sunshine ☀️ and not what I need to do. Sooo we run our industry only on “Sundays” ? 🤡

The problem ultimately is you can't run society off renewables. You you steady dependable energy 24/7. You cannot store enough energy in batts and can't make enough with existing resources.

The transition will be painful, but INEVITABLE because they will be far cheaper, safer, and less expensive to run than ice cars

In parts of Perth last night, we had 3 power cuts from rain!! This is typical. Normally first rains cause “dust wash-off”. Then we have a couple of storms that cause “trees falling on power lines!”. Then we have the odd heavy rain and “too much rain!!” If we add EV to the system, welcome to brown-town!!!!

July is National Bin Camera Month. Write to your local Member to demand AEJC complies now !

When I lived in the Redlands I frequently saw full sized buses (50 seaters) with less than 3 passengers.

On the point of super fast charging, what effect does that have on the longevity of the battery?

The idea is to remove vehicles. The idea is not to replace them. two elderly persons, sitting on different seats on a train (Victoria) were attacked and called racist. That could be a reason why people don't want to use public transport.

Maybe it's time Christopher Bowen takes one out of Peter Costello's baby bonus book. Have one for mum, one for dad, and one for the Lithium mine.

I can tell you John that back in the early 2000s the NSW government did look at making all government owned PT free. It was worked out that so much of the cost of running it was in the collection of fairs and chasing fare evaders, that eliminating fares altogether would result in a saving of a couple of million per yr on the operating costs.

Hi John, You underestimate the effect of a train. My friend a bus driver told me that when there a breakdown of a Sydney 8 car train it takes over 50 buses to empty the train at peak hour. So that over 2000 people on the train.

Just a note for clarification, the CO2 scrubbers in military rebreathers are soda lime and have been for many decades. The lithium hydroxide was not introduced until 2010 and is mainly used in hospitals. As for rebreather kits, there are 2 types: closed circuit and semi-closed. The former use O2 with a constant mass flow reducing valve or a make-up/on demand system. These are used for sneaky beaky work as they make no bubbles. The latter are mixed gas sets using oxy/nitro mixes or Oxy/helium. The modern ones are computer controlled and make up the mix in the system as required. These sets make bubbles as the dilutant gas builds up in the exhaled loop and has to be vented, hence it is not used for sneaky work, but as long as it is quiet and non-magnetic it's good for working on mines. All of these use soda lime scrubbers.

Public transport here in the UK is a joke. I have to get 30 miles down the road every couple of months. Public transport is: 25 mins walk, 15 mins on bus, three trains that if you are lucky connect okay but you usually wait for connections then another 30 minute walk. 2 hours 15 minutes door to door! Wonderful. No car so have no option.

Can the Grid cope with 10%EVs by 2030...Nope! Can the Grid cope zero by 2035 ... Nope! Can the Grid cope as it is now without any additional base load generators to 2030 ... Nope! even if you TRIPLE renewables. Right now 5:30pm Renewables are providing ONLY 9% of the demand.

No it fucking can't!

Agree with your comment on improving public transport. The cheapest solution to most of the problems faced in transport in the cities. Despite this we moved to the country over a decade back to get away from the fossil fuel pollution health issues our family was suffering from. Thought health issues are even less spoken about by our media and politicians. Harvard University, in collaboration with the University of Birmingham, the University of Leicester and University College London, found that more than 8 million people died in 2018 from fossil fuel pollution, significantly higher than previous research suggested-meaning that air pollution from burning fossil fuels like coal and diesel was responsible for about 1 in 5 deaths worldwide. Death from COVID in 3 years only came to 7 million globally and we shut the hole world down for that!

Diesel generators are going to be a popular product in the future! Not just in Australia.

In Perth in summer time we get told to turn out air conditioners to 24° and no Les because the current grind cannot cope, with the introduction of a lot of people wanting induction cookers ducted air conditioning or multiple split systems and now EVs there's no way our grid is going to cope

The older I get the more convinced I am we are all sailing on a ship of fools, with a never-ending stream of captains all having the magical answers. But it seems the ship is sinking anyways.

Fun fact. I live in Oshawa Ontario right between TWO NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS. We can’t power our air conditioners during a heat wave. How the fuq are we gonna charge huge numbers of evs. I do love my ebike

I can't come any where close to running even my small business off solar. Much less an entire industrial society.

Imagine the volume of copper required !!!!

I have been in every " alternative energy " business in last 40 years starting with wood stoves in the 70s. It's all fantasy including solar.

Your quick math regarding Australia's ability to power an all-EV fleet leaves out all of the other consumers of electricity. What about houses, apartments, factories, schools, shopping centers, streetlights, offices, etc?

I've been waiting for something like this to come out. I'm an engineer in the UK, watching with interest as both the Conservatives and now Labour are pushing for an electric utopia as described here! It's utter nonsense, and I say that as an engineer in the electric supply industry. The national grid here is adamant that it can supply the demand that it's expecting from electric vehicles, and to a point it can. The transmission side of things will have the capacity, but the distribution side is woefully lacking in capacity. The UK like Aus has a method of determining the maximum demand a house will normally require and then applies "diversity" to it. This means that whilst it may have a total possible, suck it from the cables demand of 100A at 230V, the reality is that it and its neighbours would rarely do that, if ever, at the same time. So the 600A fuses at the local sub can stay cool. It therefore means the reality is that the substation transformer will be rated at around 1.5-2kW per three bed house on gas heating (for instance). But under certain circumstances, the sub is designed to provide 160% overload during the evening peak, and the Sub can be left to cool overnight. The advent of EVs now means that theoretically that evening peak will be much higher than 160%, and will extend long into the cooling off period of the sub, thus stressing the Transformer, cables and switchgear. The answer to this, and to prevent eye wateringly high costs of replacement of all this, is; Smart Charging for most older installations. I've recently looked at the new "after diversity maximum demand" tables of one utility, and before hand it had a rating of 0.25kW per bedroom + 0.5kW, which means 1.25kW for the average three bed gas heated home. Now, after some consideration, they've updated the kW to 1.7kW plus 0.5 x the value of a charger on top, thus increasing the ADMD by over three times that of before. The same utility has also downrated its standard fuse from 100A to 80A because of the change of demand from a cyclic demand to a sustained one. In short, Electric utopia is a pain in the arse. The there's the 8 million or so of us who can't charge at home, and the government don't seem to know how to accommodate us!

When is bin cam coming?

Unless we either - A. Build a fuck ton of nuclear B. A fuck ton of Coal Then no.

This is funny to watch and listen to. With the amount of EVs here in Norway we have plenty of residential areas with near 100% EVs now and there is no grid issue. If the grid operators in Australia can't cope with EVs, then that tells me more about the companies or poor regulation in Australia, than what a grid can do. And to be real here. Not everyone will charge their EV every night at full speed anyway. Most people can easily get their needed charge using 6kW or less at a time when the load on the grid is low. Implement proper pricing structure and some peak demand pricing and things will work just fine.

The fact that the very questions that need to be asked are being avoided with zeal sends off the scam alarm.

As far as Public Transport Japan is the gold standard, their rail system is second to none, Peronally used it and very impressed.

I stopped asking those questions after doing some simple maths. There is no way it can be provided from the grid but this is not about carbon it is all about control. You get an EV and then look at how and why it connects to the internet either via the manufacturers web site or generically and you will see that you will be green not by using an EV but by being controlled into not using it.

Absolutely spot on. A functional mass transport system any city /town in the world would be a far better and cheaper solution to achieving net zero. But the politicians, when they talk about net zero actually mean zero, they cannot accept that close to net zero actually works better. They ignore the fact that EVs are not even close to any kind of zero emissions and at the moment are actually worse for the environment due to the short lifespan of the cars.

Solar power doesn't work very well at night. Switch to driving at night and charging during the day, and all will be well.

Excellent video, very enjoyable, big thumbs up (no emoji).

Your perfect public transport system is up and running. Just take a trip to Tokyo and watch their railway system in action. Peak hours a train every three minutes moving around approximately 3-5 million every morning and again in the evening.

Most of the time busses are on the road, they're near empty. Dedicated bus lanes keep busses moving, but drastically slow down the rest of the traffic, vs. having that lane open to all. I'm thus far incredibly unimpressed with the supposed benefits of expanding public transportation, though I'd imagine busses and trains in Sydney and Melbourne would at least be considerably less disgusting, awful, and dangerous than busses and trains in Chicago, DC, LA, or NYC.

As an electrician I’ve always said the grid won’t handle everyone charging evs at home, also down in Victoria they are wanting to phase out gas usage, which means that ducted heater will be replaced with reverse cycle air conditioners, gas hot water with heat pumps and gas cooktops with induction cooktops, all need power and will put pressure on the grid.

Maybe all the tradies can sacrifice all their cordless tools. Except for the radio as they will want to listen to AM talk back. As they will struggle with 240 volt leads.

My question is, having your EV charging at home every night, how much is your electricity bill going to cost? What's the increase over your normal bill?

The biggest problem with Public Transport is the fact that it’s open to the public. I’m triggered by the prospect of sitting next to some low-life whose BO could be classified as a WMD. And of course 3 months into the PT experiment, I notice that there’s fewer cars on the road and hence I could get to the office in half the time if I drove my own car.

We as a species has overcome these issues before. Where was all the oil going to come from when we started building cars, diesel trucks, diesel electric locomotives, oil burning ships, etc? We did it and now have to change again. It will not happen in a day but it will happen. I would propose that we change the building codes to require renewable energy, vehicle parking with charging, electric storage, etc. Cars are cars and take a lot of materials regardless of type. New vehicles require new electronics and even they are slimming down, i.e. CAM BUS vs Ethernet. Do you think a junk-yard would not harvest the catalytic converters and not batteries. These are profit centers. Even everyday automotive 12V batteries are recycled in my area for about US $10 each. You seem to think the marketplace can’t take handle the problem.

Free public transport is a wonderful idea for about six months - it's been tried before, but after six months the undesirables move in and make the trains their new home and then the patronage falls away.

Listening to you about the numbers and quantities of power required There is absolutely no way any of this is possible on any level unless every fuel station had its own mini nuclear reactor in its basement to make that much power This labor government is off its chops with crap

My missus boss has just leased an EV thru work. Problem... She is now stuck with a car for the next 3 years that is mostly useless. The NHS is pushing staff to EVs but they cannot be charged on any of the local hospital sites When it came to connecting the home charger... The local grid to her house isn't capable of supplying the angry pixies. She could pay for an upgrade to the house, rough estimate for the work costing £15,000 - £20,000. She has already sold her old diesel car before getting the EV paperweight.

i Really enjoyed this one John,the national monument to the death of integrity in public life is very apt for that place.This episode had that much sense and logic.

...but it only takes 1.21GW to go back to the future.

The big problem is Heat Pumps that is what is causing Black Outs in New Zealand

EV’s are just a way to remove the average persons ability to travel. This is the reason most EV’s are super expensive. This is what the people who aren’t in charge but want to be are pushing all the average people down as fast as possible

Carbon dioxide scrubbing happens very effectively at small scale in operating theaters and intensive care units. This, in part, is how closed circuit ventilation works safely.

Irrespective of whether you can generate the energy how on Earth will people be able to charge their vehicles at the pumps? There will be chaos even if there were thousands of more stations. It takes too long to charge there will be queues off the Planet!

Not everyone works in the CBD.

A trucking company in the USA wants to run 30 electric trucks and to charge them, it said it would take 6 or 7 mega watts .The local authority said you can't do that .They said the factory that makes the electric trucks only runs on 2 megawatts. Thats just 30 trucks charging , and it said they have 2 huge batteries each to charge .

When I was in a wheelchair, I hated public transportation. So happy to be able to drive my own vehicle.

When I lived in a DC suburb 8 miles outside the city there was a bus stop at the end of the block and a Metro station a quarter mile away. Driving would take 15-20 min, including parking. The Metro would be 30-35 after walking to/from the stations at either end. The bus was 35-45 because it required a connection. If you value your time at all personal transportation is the only logical solution.

I would be intrigued to know how much carbon material is used to manufacture and maintain one wind turbine? Are there large quantities of oil and lubricants used in these generators and how often are they replaced?

EVs are now 1% of cars in Australia. Since 2016 electricity generation has increased by 10% mainly due to new renewable energy projects.

Maybe you can explain to us, dude, what causes an atom of uranium-235 to decay at a point in time? If existence is determined, this should be a walk in the park. Then you might lecture us on the reason that one photon of light reflects from glass, whereas 39 identical photons pass through.

The average new rooftop PV system is now 10 kW. Only a nut wouldn't charge from that.

I stopped using public transport when the window lickers and those with pocket knives and cans of spray paint can redesign the interiors at will. Lets also not forget the amazing art work created on the outside of the trains, free expression of art. Just wonderful. Travelling in a train carriage catapults you to amazing world class cities such as San Francisco or Portland in the USA. Defecate and urinate at will, it is your right!

I started working at an equestrian center earlier this year ... 'muck raking' has a more tangible meaning than it used to honest work, good for the body and mind, the horses basically live in personal jail cells overnight; giving them affection, dressed and sprayed, out for the day and a clean stall ... best you can do for them as most owners visit less often and spend less time with them than you would think for a large, very costly life they choose to own.

Renewables need backup from coal, gas or diesel, so much for Net Zero.

John Cardigan my name is James my first response to your post upcoming however I have watched every one of your post for 8 months or so. I have approximately 30 years experience as a auto service repair technician including body and frame repair.electric Jesus is not even interested in my ideas of an electrolysis H2 gas injector witch would be installed in the intake runner 1 per cylinder maybe we should colaberate at some point I can do a lot of neat stuff and I suffer from other people shirt enough because I to have a brain that can do complex math.and a skill set to do anything I want with a I C E transport vehicle I am sure I could prototype a 94 Cummins d350 in less than 6 months with some of your knowledge. And as dangerous as H2 can be I believe these conversations are far safer than any lithium battery E V could ever be based on not only my observation.also what I have learned from your research as well.

no

AEMO said that the East Coast will need 26 new gas power stations to backup renewables but they will need to run on diesel because of a shortage of gas, so much for Net Zero.

Hi Mr John. 15 years ago, I knew nothing about brands and their behavior. Since then I understood a lot about reality. I saw one of your independent videos, and from that, I read a lot of recalls, court decisions, statements, etc. So I wrote a book, published on Amazon, called How do I choose my next car? (5 $ the price). I have your approoval to write here the link? I think people should know about some actions and behaviors of some of the brands ( Toyota, Suzuki, JEEP, Volkswagen, etc.). Or that some statements are nothing more than myths that are simply not true: ,,Nobody ever died in XC90, the safest car in the world. " Thank you.

I love C02....without it we DEI...C02 is at one of it lowest points ever....we need more of it

Power companies have been hurting for decades due to a drop in the expected growth of electricity demand. It looks like the demand for electricity may finally be going up again, and most power companies are not going to be worried about the growing load for data centers and for EVs, they are salivating. If they’re worried, it’s more about loss of some of that swelling pie to independent power producers and individuals putting in their own solar power.

The power grid can't handle people running their aircons at the same time in summer. How is the grid going to handle everyone coming home from peak hour and plugging in their EVs at the same time. You will have to build more coal fired power stations to supply the base load power to meet the demand.

What about EV tyres? EV’s are heavier and the roads are getting covered with tyre debris

John, I would be interested in your thoughts on electromagnetic radiation and EVs. Is this something we should be talking about.

Brisbane is about to conduct the 'cheep public transport experiment' with max 50c trips about to start on 5th August.... It will be very interesting to see how many less cars will be on the road vs how many extra buses/trains/ferries will have to be scheduled. Fun times ahead!!!!

The distribution grid was designed originally with up 50% extra capacity, to cope with expansion n-1 etc. Lately, line companies have used this additional capacity for property developments and expansion without expanding or agrumenting the grid. It is unknown (to the public) how much capacity there is on the main distribution feeders. If more chargers are needed planning should be under way today. Part of Putin's land grab is to secure Ukraine's lithium deposits.

the grid is one area that the EVangelists will never address

The horse men when the cars became popular: You will have to have fuel station everywhere! It will never work. We adapted and it was fine.

What we need is to get jobs closer to home and drive less.

Your mathing may conclude that only an extra 40GWhrs of generation is required to cover the kms travelled annually, but this doesn’t consider the additional instantaneous load placed on the grid at any one time, as the vehicles aren’t just constantly ‘trickle-charging’. This is especially important when considering renewables, as the instantaneous demand is almost as unpredictable as the weather (though I think most understand that solar doesn’t work so well at night, you know, when you want to charge your EV).

Canada's grid can't handle EV loads either...not sure any nation really can.

the grid will be ok if u charge using panels at home

Nice gay t-shirt John !!! Found in aTesla at the catholic church?

I agree totally with you. Non-shit public transport would be the answer. Unfortunately, for the past 116 years, suburbia has been designed and built around the motor car, making retro-building efficient public transport difficult and expensive. The amount of money spent on multiple highways from suburbia to the big cities and ports would have been better spent designing suburbs integrated into public transport. When my son was cleaned up by a moron driving through a stop sign, I looked at trying to get him to where he needed to go for work using public transport. Catching the first train at 5.00am and walking the last two kilometres to work from the closest bus stop. He only had to miss one bus connection through timing or technical issues to have a 1-hour wait for the next bus, thus missing his work start time. As my brother was off work, he drove him to work and picked him up for two weeks until his car was repaired.

Hi again John, I was listening to a mining expert a few months ago on RU-vid, he said it takes on average about 10 to 12 years to open for instance a cooper mine because at the moment the world is consuming more copper than can be produced