I love hearing about other people perspective on a particular stocks I own especially if its a bear case scenario. I appreciate your input and you definitely have great points. I am a sofi bull and the reason people are optimistic is that if one completely believes in this management, one can expect an eps of around 0.85 by 2026. Looking at their history, they have always exceeded expectation and are known to be sandbaggers. At the same time, they are being prudent with cutting their lending to minimize as much risk as possible as they are currently rejecting 80% of the loan applicants due to the economy uncertainty right now. Yet, they are still growing in earnings thanks to increase in revenue from their tech and financial service. If one assumes that the economy doesnt crash, interest rate coming down will massively benefit the lending segment. Also, being a fintech unlike traditional banks, i think its fair to give a multiple of 20-25. That will give a price of about 20 dollars by 2026. Im aware alot has to go right for Sofi to achieve this but Im optimistic that it can happen especially as they are constantly getting new members which I dont see slowing in the near future and they are also putting out new products and services which will increase their revenue going forward.
@@rcw328 I don’t agree on the fintech multiple yet. Wall Street dictates the multiple not us and so far they seem to be categorising this as a bank which would make it overvalued at current price. I do agree on management consistently delivering triple bear earnings but that’s only true until it’s not.
When the stock went to 10ish, everyone was crying that they should have bought more at 4-6. Now suddenly no one remembers that anymore. I am adding every single time it comes down to a new support line
Who was crying? Only hype RU-vidrs are singing this song. Most of them don’t know what they’re talking about or they are just trying to boost their ad revenues.
This is a narrow approach. You can't just look at price and you know it. The tech has gone nowhere, growth continues to slow and they still dump on retail at all alarming rate. Not too mention the stock is moderately over valued.
Sofi’s guidance of 55-80 cents of EPS by 2026 will be amazing if they can achieve it…. I’m currently holding 16,000 shares to see how this plays out in the next couple of years.
Wow hats amazing.... if l get in now at 6.53 and everything goes up, you and all of us will be rocking! Goof Luck EVERYONE THE SUN COMES OUT FOR EVERYONE! LETS BUY/SELLS SMART
Thank you for providing a bear thesis to SOFI. Two note on valuation: 1) It looks like your financial services contribution margins are different from assumption to actual model. 2) Stock based compensation is tricky in valuations. I think by including it in the GAAP Earnings and share dilution you are double counting the expense. Either you remove it as a non-cash expense and adjust for dilution or treat it as a cash expense and discount to today's shares.
As long as they are hitting their #’s, background noises should not matter in the long run. Great opportunity to DCA.
2 месяца назад
I started a position today, hopefully it pans out nice. Seems like a lot of upsides from my view, with rates coming down later in the year, and the CEO continuing to buy more and more shares.
You obviously misunderstood what was said about the lending segment. They didn't say that they expect it to decline but that THEY would constrain that segment as a way to de-risk from the current macroeconomic environment.
@investingsucks the difference is that it's being done intentionally. It's not something out of their control. They are turning down 80% of loan applicants also, which de risks the business even more, although their customers are people with great credit.
Management may be framing it as an intentional decision, but ultimately they made that decision because they want to avoid losses which have increased because the consumer wasn't as strong as it once was. Less lending means less interest income whether it's an "intentional" decision or not. But at $6/share the market has already priced in that decrease, so it's not even part of the bear thesis.
Same, I’ll take Morninstar’s $13 current valuation, not price target. Most just don’t believe SoFi can hit guidance, even though they’ve proven they can beat for over 2 years straight now.
I stop using Sofi for lack of many basic banking features. A few basic features that Sofi need to add to such as (1) can't manual link external bank account, (2) no zelle payment for everyone, (3) interest rate is too low even with direct deposit. Sofi is still a long way to catch up with the technology
All depends on how they grow Galileo, they're wanting to partner with top 5 banks and have previously discussed a partnership with one. Over the next 5 years i can see them scaling back their risk portfolio and aiming to become a profitable fintech. If they achieve this, thats when you'll see rapid multiple expansion.
Everyone who tries to value SOFI as a traditional bank gets the same answer. I'd argue that since SOFI doesn't have physical locations, it should not be compared to traditional banks. I think it makes more sense to me to use companies like Ally, Capital One, Discover and NU. Looking at the mature companies first; Discover is trading at 12, Capital One trades at 14 and Ally goes at 18.5. This is an average of 15, so SOFI trading at 15 when it is mature seems reasonable. However, SOFI is growing comparable to NU, which has a 47.5 PE. So, in 2026, is SOFI likely to still be growing similar to NU or will their future growth be more similar to Ally? So, I have it worth between 12 and 38 in 2026 based on 80 cents EPS and depending on projected growth after 2026. And from a macro standpoint, those headwinds will become tailwinds eventually. I suspect Tech will benefit the most under an improved macro as capital becomes cheaper to finance. Management has been impressive navigating in stormy weather for the past two years and the macro has held the share price down. The weather is clearing soon and the market is about to see what SOFI can do in a favorable environment.
I really appreciate your insight on this stock. This is one of my larger holdings and love to hear another perspective on the stock. One thing I would note when comparing it to the list of banks you pulled up - In just looking at the top 3 ones you listed their average growth rate over the next 3 years is around 3% annually. You took historical growth rates when it does not really paint a picture on the outlook of those other bank stocks. Nonetheless, you brought up some good points. I appreciate the video!
@investingsucks correct. Analyst have them growing around 3% CAGR. Which means it is not apples to apples looking at a company projecting 20%+ growth with much higher EPS growth.
Fair enough, but even if it's not those specific companies there are numerous examples of bank stocks that are not diversified that could grow 20%+ over the next few years that have single digit PEs. I also ignore analysts estimates but that's a different story 🙂
Most fintech stocks are overvalued because people think that you can simply disrupt the banking industry. Over and over again, this is very difficult. And people shouldn't confuse revenue growth as a sign of a good business. Anyone can burn money on gaining customers, but eventually the business has to make a profit and continue to grow earnings without that grow at any cost mindset. Now given that, I did buy SOFI awhile back when its Price-to-Book was less than one, but I sold when it was above one. My assumption was that if SOFI decided to pivot to reducing costs and increasing profit instead of focusing on growth, I believe it could do that. In my opinion, SOFI is priced for lower growth, but growth none the less and that is obvious when you look at the stock price chart over the last five years.
You missed Sofi's 50% compound annual growth for total revenue over the last 5 years. This will possibly stay in this ballpark or around 40-45% over the next few years ... That means Sofi has been and will be significantly outperforming the Canadian digital bank you mentioned as a comparison. In my opinion this at the moment should justify Sofi stock to trade at a p/e multiple of at least 12 to14. So you stated that for investers it has become apparent that SOFI is a bank, not a technology company ... is it apparently not a tech company, really??? And also … Sofi isn’t not diversified like bigger old school brick and mortar competitors??? Do some investigation in SOFI's B to B fintech and the banking market future outlook and you might come to a very different conclusion. Sofi gloriously pivoted past all the hurdles of this rough economic environment. To me it looks like Sofi is super diversified for the future! Btw, Sofi’s potential competitors are failing or not even trying. Imo the future AWS of fintech is offered by Sofi owned Galileo/Technicys, there is no better future proof diversification imaginable.
It's a bank with a tech segment that makes a little bit of money. You can see towards the end of the video I did incorporate it in the model in accordance with what management has said to expect from that segment
I don’t think you’re accounting for how growth stocks excel in a lower rate environment. If the Fed cuts several times over the next 6-18 months that would benefit SOFI a lot. You cant quantify a risk-on surge in your numbers.
Perception might improve but in actuality whether the rate goes up or down usually have a net neutral impact on banks depending on what the bank are specifically exposed too.
It's possible that happens but also possible it doesn't happen. Are you prepared for a scenario where rates don't get reduced or only reduced slightly? Do you think the risk is worth the potential reward? Maybe you do, but it's an important question you need to understand if you're long SoFi
If they cut it will be due to a recession. stocks can crash big, growth stocks can take a big hit, then you have a recovery. We had a low rate recovery 2010-20, thats different than the initial drop which corresponds with a crash normally
Thank you for the incredible free content! You mentioned the site is free for now. If or when you decide to monetize it, it would so cool if there was some kind of tooltip walkthrough that you can initiate that basically teaches you some methods for deep value analysis step-by-step via the tooltips. I don't know man just throwing it out there! It's already so good as is. I was long SoFi in may 2023 and made some money so my perspective on it will always skew slightly positive, but I really appreciate your comparison to EQB since I'm a customer of theirs in Canada. Cheers man! Looking forward to the next video.
Only RU-vidrs are bulls. Wall Street, shorts and others are very bearish. There’s no way this is a 10x. It’s a bank for sure and it will become a dead stock, the growth is just not there. The big problem was the SPAC price of 10$. It should have been 1$ at IPO in which case we’d all be happy with a 2$ or 3$ stock price.
@@Valencia-27 what lies? This is one of the most shorted stocks in the entire stock market and shorts have done really well from betting correctly on this. Most (all) longs are bag holding.
Thanks for view from other side. I would like to ask....u use PE for valuation of bank? If you accept is bank should not be fair use P/book? If u use PE it would be fine for fintech and your 2028 multiple should not be at least 20?
I use PE for banks. Book value doesn't really matter, what matters if the banks ability to use their assets to generate earnings. Stock prices follow earnings over the long term. And 20 PE is way too high for an undiversified bank
This guys out to Lunch ! Normal banks with a 7 % GROWTH rate are valued at a 10PE ! The crazy problem is NOBODY puts a 10 PE on a company growing 20 % a year like SOFI (compounding for the next 4 years) ....that's F'ing NUTS !!! The stock can Reasonably be valued in 2028 at $22-$24/share !...that's reasonable !
The bright side is many of us arent looking at 20 a share unless they are doing .80+ eps.. many of us are happy with 12 a share or 10 a share... back to 11.70 wil be amazing after 4 straght quarters positive eps with 2024 ending .10 which beats the guidance for 2024...even 9 a share so many of us will be happy.. .. anyone waiting for 15 20 b4 ending of 2026 are wasting their time.. 6.50 now at .08 eps for 2024 should be 3x if we hit .80 2026.. not 8+ dollars 2028..
sofi was another interesting stock i found odd retail rushing to (new investor here), but i agreed that there was little to no upside from a pretty simple glance BUT, i come from a big football background & i noticed an interesting correlation between stocks with investments in the NFL during the NFL season. i noticed specifically that some big offseason moves were actually priced into market expectations. with that being said, their investment in the los angeles chargers, and including a potentially great turnaround with the struggling franchise as of late, could pose as a promising factor for SOFI
no skin in the game on this one, really just playing devil’s advocate to your devil’s advocate😂 i also haven’t seen anything anywhere about the correlation between ticket & jersey sales in sports + stocks…. Just an idea🤷♂️ the LA rams as well
Not really, most of comments are like excuses.For example, the reason why tech platform is not growing is due to VC funds being dried up but fact is sofi tech is ain't growing regardless of the situation. Another point tanner mention is their lending went down because well they decided too.Not sure how this is a plus on sofi business model when u need to sacrifice your largest revenue and margin contributitor just to be safe financially.Goes to show the danger and the lack of resilient the current model holds
@@investingsucksTannor is always up for a good debate. You’re going to need to come more prepared as he knows the company inside and out. You had some reasonable points in your video but you made several points that made me question the depth of your understanding of their business model.
Like what? In my valuation model I projected exactly what management is saying will happen, and the returns still don't even look that good. That's assuming everything goes according to plan which probably won't even happen. The main disagreement we have is what PE multiple to use for the business. And a PE multiple is the collective opinions of all investors and not your personal opinion on what it should be. So relying on a huge PE multiple isn't wise investing imo
The bank portion is not well diversified however the company is diversified with the financial services & technology divisions that will make up about 50% of revenues by end of 2024. Appreciate your bearish analysis though & it kinda explaims the poor price perf of 2024 so far.
Usually, when you have retail investors forming a sort of stock cult and buying something that is not very spectacular based on hype, its best to stay away. Institutions tend to be avoiding this stock so you try to look at what institutions and professional analysts do who make a living at analyzing stocks not a bunch of retail clowns who trade on hype from questionable sources
Alarming may have not been the right word, I meant to point out the increase. What did they forecast for? Keep in mind they can lower their charge off rate just by securitizing low quality loans. Which isn't ideal, but does allow them to avoid some losses
Dude with an almost 100% chance of a interest rate reduction in September , will bring back the entire business case of Refinancing student loans....you remember the thing the bank was founded on and had the Rug pulled out from them by to government!, because of COVID!.......its back ! .......OMG !
What did I say that was FUD? I showed an actual valuation model that shows what returns you can earn under different scenarios. That's how you analyze an investment.
SoFi is trading barely over book value. For a profitable high growth stock, it’s actually a conservative investment. It’s not like your investing in something trading at high multiples, worst case scenario for them is baked into the price already. Also, as usual you ignore there financial services and Galileo, which are guided to overtake there loan revenue this year.
You can see in my model I included the tech segment. Around book value is where I would expect a company like this to trade at. Worst case scenario would be 0.5 or 0.6 book value. It can happen with banks.
I saw it in the model, but you 3/4 into the video of talking like they’re only a bank without any diversification . Years ago they were only a student loan company. Holding against them that they have high FICO, low risk customers as a higher risk than say BOA with lots of low income higher risk customers. Lower FICO customers are more profitable but higher risk, the inverse of high FICO customers. This also ignores any new products like SB products, which they’ve been hiring for the past year. When you look at their historical performance, to make the bill case just their guidance is disingenuous. Morningstar rates their current fair value as $13, you can’t compare a young high growth stock directly to old banks directly., they didn’t even have positive EPS until recently.
There's lots of banks that don't have diversification. I'm even invested in one. I'm not comparing them to BoA in the sense they're similar, Im using it as a way to explain why SoFi will look cheap relative to a more diversified company like that. Diversification in banking is huge, arguably more important than growth rate.
It's an important point that seems to get missed when talking about sofi. If investors believe it deserves a 25 PE multiple they're in for a rude awakening. I also did an entire valuation model to support my thesis which not many RU-vidrs do. You may disagree with me but I'm sure you can appreciate the detail I presented here rather than me just jumping on the bandwagon and saying it'll make everyone a millionaire
The difference is that his summary are backed by points are fact while sofi bull case is sofi is a tech stock when in actual facts tech segment only contributed about less than 20 percent of revenue growing at a lower cadence that the other two segment
All I know is SoFi sand bags their predictions every quarter, and then beat. If they say they can play it conservatively and still do .55 to .88, then I'm guessing they are going to beat that. But my goal is to ride this train for years, selling call options along the way. I'm enjoying the short selling right now. Keeps me from losing shares lol. But one day, the shorts are going to realize they screwed up, and there will be a short squeeze. I just hope my calls don't get caught up in it.
Yes management has historically been slightly conservative with guidance. But remember they gave that guidance assuming no changes to the macro picture over the next 1.5 years. History is full of banks that were too exposed to one area of the economy that eventually hurt them badly. As because that risk always exists investors will value them cautiously, even if they're growing fast
@@investingsucks I'm picking up what you're laying down. I wouldn't be surprised to se SoFi drop back into the $4-$5 range. And I hope it does. I have my minimum 10k shares I wanted, but plan to keep collecting more shares. I'm long term SoFi. I have no desire to dump before 2030.
@@investingsucksI disagree. Management gave outlook and acted on a weaker macroeconomic outlook by lowering personal loans of which they now decline 80%. So they are positioning conservatively.
Don't let management deceive you. It's not about them being conservative. They simply have less creditworthy customers. That's not a good thing no matter how management frames it
Sorry to be the berare of bad news, but any and all growth stocks 10x opportunities. Especially profitable companies that have tech and high SI (whats they cover). So ... Yeah, its a 10x jus toike the majority of shit out there. So... Yeah, of course I think your wrong lol. Would be interesting though, if you shorted the stock and provised weekly updatesnon the profits though. Nice Video ✌️
@@investingsucks Apologies for the typos 😂. didn't notice at first. I am just saying, all stocks can be 10x opportunities regardless of what technicals or fundamentals we have. Often it make sense, but just as often it defies logic. Sofi will pop very soon for no apparent reason and if you trade or shorted, you would make money. Personally I hate shorts, but I'll buy puts. it less manipulation of share/stock price. In which, I made 400p on the downturn and loaded for the return up for next month. Thanks for the reply!
@@investingsuckswhy do you not dispute that though? At the current cadence tech platform is growing in comparison with the financial service .I forsee for a 50/50 split they need to limit financial service growth which doesn't make sense.
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I actually have a degree and a CPA unlike majority of the people talking about this company. Don't hate just because I have a different opinion than you.
@AnthonyNoto69 😂😂😂 when you don't bring any points to debate on and instead attack Eric because he's not echoing the same points as your favourite youtubers (who have no degree in Finance to speak about and have fabricated your reality).
