Excel - Time Series Forecasting - Part 1 of 3 

Terrific! I just used the technique from these three videos on a real-world 4-year dataset related to Natural Disasters. The forecast was excellent; I compared the 5th year forecast versus a partial set of actual data from the 5th year, and it fit very nicely! Your explanation was very clear. Thank you so much for sharing this.

This series of 3 is fantastic! Thanks so much. It's really straightforward to follow and does exactly what I need.

It has been almost 7 years since I graduated MBA classes, you know what, I desperately needed the time series forecasting which I learned back then. Thats exactly what I needed . I have recalled everything thanks to you. The explanation is easy to understand, and very clear.

Dear Jalayer, I would like to thank you for these productive videos. It exactly step by step which I benefit a lot and I appreciate your patience in doing the video, please keep up the great work.

You have the knowledge and know how to teach. Great job and thanks a lot!

"Thank GOD 🙏🏾", and thank you very much for sharing your support and time 😉 That was REALLY Really really good 👍🏿 Long, but good...

The theory is sharp and precise and the examples are simply to the point. This 3 part video is easy to understand and practise. Highly recommend this time series tutorial

J'adore votre vidéo! Merci beaucoup Monsieur Jalayer :) It really helps me

Awesome, one of the best explanation on Time Series using Excel, you made it look so simple...

Searching for this content from last five years. Thanks a lot.

this is just awesome!!! helped me a lot in my work!!!

awesome lesson! is there any way to include other variables such like economic factors like employment rates ?

Thank you for the videos! They are really useful!

Thank you for breaking this down. VERY helpful.

Awesome job, you saved me a lot of headaches! Thanks so much! You the man!

Great video. Could you also explain the Holt's winter multiplicative model in forecasting using excel? Also, some of the statistics like MAPE using excel?

Great video series. I have learned and applied in bussiness. I am looking forward to see the R version of the series.

Thankyou for the video. Really helped me to clear my understanding of time series forecasting.

thanks for watching, and for the comment

It was very helpful.....I gone through all 3 videos. Very well explained Thanks you so much

you're awesome at breaking things down and explaining. Thank you!

6 years later, still helpful

Thanks for the video! What types of forecasting is this, and why was it chosen compared to say, exponential smoothing / ARMA / Weighted moving average?

thanks for you tutorial jalayer, i just want to know if that example makes up all the ARIMA process thanks again

I disagree with Mr Ivan...... Whatever repetitions you have done not only clarified the subject more, but it also did a bit of revision. One should think about people who are totally alien to the subject , and not about those who know too much ABOUT THE SUBJECT ! I am compelled to say that that the author and commentator of this video is one of the greatest teachers EVER ! ( this is my first video for him, but I am a physician and I know how to evaluate something ! Congratulations to the Jalayer Academy and thanks for being kind to spend your time and money for the common and downtrodden man !

Explained with such simplicity and clarity,, Kudos :)

It is extremely illustrative and helpful. Thank you very much

Hello, thank you for this amazing video. I have a question: *What if we had 3 years of monthly sales data, and we needed to do a monthly forecast for next 12 months? How would you have approached calculating MA & CMA?*

Thanks you safe my life brother!

Great video ! cover fundamental of forecasting . How to manage forecasting in excel , especially if products or sku is more than 5000.

Just wanna say. May God Bless You! Amen!

May you also highlight on how you will use excel to outline the general hyperbolic function followed by the prediction or the forecast line. (e.g it can be Yt = aXt^2 -bXt + c.

I learned more with this three videos than with a bunch of books. Thank you very much!

Thank you very much. this is exactly the solution to the problem i was facing. Thanks for the step by step instructions.

Have you done any videos for the additive (rather than multiplicative) method?

Thank you very much sir, your videos are thorough with proper explanations

Thanks. Thats a great! and valuable tutorial.

missing data is quite a challenging problem to have sometimes, there is a whole field of inquiry into how to handle this, you may have to look into missing data in time series, thanks for watching

Hi Sir, I've similar inquiry as karadic; why the first value of MA(4) been placed at the 3rd quarter instead of 4th quarter?

Great explanation. Thanks.

Great set of videos on time series. Question : Are all time series based on a multiplicative model? If no, then how did you determine that a multiplicative model would fit this data. Also, why did we not try to isolate the irregularity, why just stop at trend and seasonality. Final question, why can't we use the cma value as trend, does that not indicate a trend? thank you once again

Excellent! Made a very complicated subject easy to understand

Thank you for the great Videos....

Thanks for this explanatory video.

sorry Sameer, I can't answer these questions in this forum, I would say that if you notice no pattern in the data as far as seasonality than you may have no seasonal factor

Extremely helpful! Thank you very much.

what is the name of this method?

Thanks for posting this tutorial. Very helpful. Can this time series forecasting method be used for budgeting as well? Instead of revenue, take expenses and create a expense forecasting, meaning budgeting? If not, please advise what function is used. Thanks a lot!

Excellent tutorial, I am power Engineer and i have learned nice skills here... Bravo, get us more...

Many thanks for your video! It's very clear and easy to understand! Can I ask you a question? There are a few missing in my time series data. Is there any possible that I can still analyse my data?

Thank you so much for saving me. I have been struggling with this for a few weeks and this assignment is due on Monday. Until I found your video, I had no clue on how to do my assignment and I am grateful that you took time out to post this because I'm hoping that I can use your example to follow to do my assignment and pass my class. Forever thankful :).

This helped me a lot, i will be using it my final paper. Could you please tell me if there is any article where it explain the methodology or from with book you found it? Thank you for the help

Very well explained in a methodical fashion. How do i do a weekly forecast for upcoming years with historical weekly data available for previous 2 years?

Do you have a tutorial about time series using R .. Thank you !

Thank you i learnt so much from the videos. I really don't know liked the teaching, tone and the pace is so good to understand easy in details explained you are a great teacher and a gift to the students 👌😀

Nice presentation! if you have data of 2 years (like the above -car sales)is it accurate to make a precision for 5 months later? thank you

any ideas on how to put confidence interval around the predictions? Thanks

You saved me bruh! I was struggling with no idea now i can copy paste this, Lifesaver

Really great! I got it 1st time...thank you

Video really helped me very much thanks a ton can you help me with the predictions for hourly in a day

Great video. Thank you

Can you please make a video on how to use the column chart, pie chart, and doughnut cart in a perfect professional method?

U can check ARIMA, a very powerful method to do this

Thanks A lot. now i can do my test !

glad I could help, thanks for your awesome comment

That is an excellent video! If i want to work with 24 months, should i use MA4 and CMA(4) or use another amount in the average? Thanks in advance!

Thank you for the video. How do I deal with multiple seasonality? I have daily information and each week there is a predictable day of week cycle i.e Tuesday and Monday's are low and Fridays are high. but in addition to this, there is another seasonality where the 3rd week of the month is usually lower than the other weeks of the month. And of course, there is monthly seasonality where the peak month of the year is December followed by a drop in January. How do I include 3 seasonality components using this methodology?

Excellent job describing how yo perform a time series analysis. A lot of views but not a lot of subscribers. Support this channel!

great tutorial. please can you make us video about calculating AUC + JINI coefficient. tnx allot..

Hi @jalayer Academy do you have any tutorials on ARMA model?

May I know the theory and formulae behind this example. I mean what should I search for to get the theory

Great videos for data analysis!

Do you have a video that discusses the benefit of daily weekly or monthly forecasting?

Awesome tutorial. Which method of time series forecasting are you using?

Nice work, dude!

Hi! If that statistically correct if I add factors to the regression model, such as index values, and if the added variable adds significance to the model then I also use forecasted index value (in addition to the period variable shown here) to forecast my revenues?

This what I needed. Great explanation. Thanks a lot

How can we use this in call centre where we have to forecast interval wise one hour interval..

This was awesome! Thanks so much for the video!!!

Hi Jelayer, what is the statistical method you are using in these three videos please?

Awesome one. Made it completely clear. Thanks a lot sir

How accurate is that for long periods? What the confidence ratio and error margin? If i take it to, for exemple, 2020, would it be useful?

Hi, How using the method to forecast multiple SKU/Product in one worksheet

how can you do a time series analysis with multiple variables (x). ?? thanks

so, i am following the time series modeling and wondering what steps to pass on if i have only annual revenues for 16 years and want to predict into year 17. i have a chart with a trend line for the real data. do i need to perform a linear regression model first, or what steps are appropriate to get my one year out forecast? thank you.

Hi Jalayer, nice tutorial. Did you ever try multivariate forecast ? Im Working in Diploma Thesis with long term forecast where usuall programs like Rapidminer, etc. have little problem with horizont more than +1. I think excell could be nice alternative for my task but i have to work with 14 variables or so. Can you give me some advice please what should be different than in this way ? Thank you

Hey are you able to advise if these set of videos create a model which is remotely similar to a Holt-Winters forecasting model? Found it very informative however, I am now struggling to differentiate between your model and the very confusing HW model that we have been shown in class! Can you advise? Liam

I have a question after watched all your vids on this topic. How do I apply this method to a monthly data with seasonality by weeks? t1 is the first day of the month and it can be a Sunday. But t32,which is the first date of the forecast, will be another day, possible a Tuesday. Of course you can use the Sunday's data to forecast a Tuesday's performance. How to fix this?

Awesome, thank you so much! You make practicing for exams and doing assignments a breeze :)

thank you sir, your explanations are on point

It is very useful, thankyou ,look forward to your next vedio

I built forecasting models based on this video.... THANK YOU SO MUCH

many thanks to you for the comment

Love the explanation of the center moving average and the calculation to correct it for even numbers. I personally think you'd have done better in a real world scenario to just drop down to 3 for the moving average to plot a longer line.

Hey can I use this model to forecast exchange rates over 2 years or more? Thank you for the great content!

Thanks, I was looking for an excel version of time series.

May i kindly ask if there is any fast method to do forecast for 1'000 inventory part number (each PN based on 3 years historical data of itself)..?

Thanks a ton, it was really helpful, however have couple of questions. 1.I have 5 yrs mnth wise gold price data & so for 12 mnth how shud i take the moving avg for e.g. assume data is in C1:C12, so should I take the first average in D12 & drag all the way down? 2.I observed that there is no cyclic effect in the data, so can the above method be still used to go further with the analysis or is there any model that I should use? I need to make a time series analysis on Gold prices &USD Exchnge rate

Hi Jaylayer academy I want to thank U a lot for vedio on time series in excel, is very helpful and more simpler to understand. Thanks for the great work. One more thing, do you also have vedio on ARIMA model with excel

Thanks and have a blessed day...