12/2 Lancereaver Sain reliably demolishes Lundgren over 2 turns so this is a simple 3 turn. The robe prevents him from having any chance of dying. Florina's double vulnerary ensures she can't die either. Rath hits B bows and gained a level making him only a little bit worse than 0% base Rath in HHM now, and everyone else just helped get some last bits of EXP.
Sadly, the Energy Ring is unobtainable in a 3 turn, but 90% Florina isn't exactly a combat goddess and I didn't give her the Robe either, so missing it isn't a big deal.
3 Turns is as fast as it gets, and it doesn't get any more reliable than this.
The rough calculations for the expected turncount are
87%~ chance for a 3 turn
13%~ chance for a 4 turn
The conditional mean clear turn is 3.1~
The conditional mean reset turn is 0
The reset penalty is 0
The expected turncount is 3.1~
The total expected turncount for Lyn Hard Mode is 46.5~ (47.5 if you add in the extra turn the game counts on defend maps).
So there you have it, a small mini "complete" playthrough demonstrating the Expected Turncount metric with enforced Reliable Stats. We can see by this chapter in particular how although our stat reliability is close to a 0% growth run, we can have a much cleaner Lundgren kill by comparison, where with no growths, all units besides Wallace are KO'd in 2 hits and nobody but Lucius or Lyn can double.
This makes most of the strategies far more applicable to tiering and debate about the value of particular units. Lyn for example, is rather useful in some early maps, but some of her relevance to bosskilling has been historically overstated, in particular vs Eagler.
In the future, I will post a comparative Kent run to show how making Kent your Paladin costs extra turns due to just not being as reliable as Sain, with his performance against Lundgren being particularly poor.
I hope this playthrough has piqued your interest into the application of reliability as a valuable factor in efficiency. If it has, please PM me on reddit if you would like to join a discord dedicated to LTC and efficiency in Fire Emblem. / irysa
Pessimistic Mode is a hack by Doesnt on feuniverse that only allows player character stats to increase if there is a 90% chance of them having increased by the level you have just attained. It is close to 0% growths in reliability but brings stat growths into the equation to reward training units and to help compare units better than by using averages.
feuniverse.us/...
16 окт 2024
