Hey mate happy new year! And cheers for this - super interesting. Do you have a discord? Would be great to chat with you and others about stats/share knowledge etc. Keep rocking mate!
Could do something fun and light hearted and do some sort of a top 11 of players that have served you well in the past in FPL on a once off week? Antonio scoring 4 in one game, Lowton doing well for you on BB sometime as well. Might take some decent memory so could be tough but could be something different and lighthearted! Keep up the great content
Another random idea is something completely not related to FPL but could do a predictions video for 2022 like on some other football RU-vid channels. Who you think will win league/cups/CL/World Cup along with other individual player/manager predictions!
Would like to see a similar video to yesterday, except with lower ranked teams that need a boost. (for example me, who has injuries and players gone to AFCON but no idea whether to use chips / take hits)
Over the years I've come to the reluctant conclusion that stats definitely have their role in FPL. I stubbornly thought for years that my 'superior football knowledge' would see me through but whatever your level of knowledge the stats (if used correctly and objectively) can boost your rank and help in mini leagues.
Love that Andy is talking about Smith Row without talking about Smith Row ahhaha :D cannot wait for the double gameweek videos, keep up the amazing work Andy :D
All time top FPL manager Fabio Borges on stats: "Im definitely stats orientated manager, i don't ignore the so-called eye test completely, but most of my decisions are based on long-term data. The reason for this is i can only watch so many matches every week, and even if i could watch them all my brain would be susceptible to all sorts of bias while statistics have a better memory, which makes them more reliable imo"
Nice video idea Andy 👍 I've been waiting to watch it since you mentioned it on Twitter Underlying stats have improved my game a lot, I now use my own checklist so I consider all the factors (e.g. small sample size and goal/assist Points weighting)
Thanks for the video, Andy, and for the website to use (I hadn’t seen it before). I don’t spend a lot of time on FPL but luckily am at about 290k this season. I spend a lot of time thinking about Man City players. On of the reasons Bernardo Silva xGI is up to 0.40 this season from 0.28 last season is because he was playing higher up on the pitch while DeBruyne was injured. Now that KDB is back and pretty much nailed when fit (one of only a few at Man City who we can ever consider “nailed”), xGI for B Silva likely to decrease during the second half of the season. Keep the videos coming. I am a new subscriber of yours this season and watch many of them but can’t get up early enough for the live streams!
Pro tip: when checking stats of players use their career stats to get a clearer view of their ability. For example Gray consistently over performs his xg season after season. I think he's an amazing choice at 5.5m
@@Apfelstrudl isn't "form" just an uptick in stats that's not yet represented in the data? 🤔 In the future the stats for "in form" players look better and can then be taken into consideration, but those relying solely on past data miss out.
Do you think multiplying Xg by 1.5 and then adding on the Xa when comparing players for FPL is a good idea because that is the way goals and assists are roughly weighted in terms of forwards and mids(4.5/3=1.5) therefore would be a better gauge on players’ potential as assets
@@47eoghan47 yeah cause if an assist is 3 points and a goal is 5 that means that the goal is 1.6666x more valuable than the assist so by multiplying the Xg by 1.67 you can gauge how valuable the Xgi is. (For forwards you would do it slightly differently)
@@47eoghan47 but for midfielders specifically 5. For others you just take whatever the goal is worth and divide it by three and there’s your multiplying factor
Nice video Andy! Highly appreciated I'm a Stats & Eye test guy. Data because if the right metrics are used, it's completely unbiased and rid of emotions. However, my strategy is to have atleast 2 differentials and this is where Eye test comes into play. If I am excited about a player or 2. I watch that player in games to see if it's worth the emotional commitment.
The Silva thing is an excellent example of context. He went on that run because he was more advanced due to KDB's absence. Now KDB is back, Silva is playing deeper and not returning the same level of points. Silva is an excellent option when KDB isn't fit, but is otherwise just an average option.
Excellent stream Andy. The best yet. Something a little different but definite fpl food for thought. I use Xg/Xa quite a lot but sometimes I remember getting stung by Maupay with these stats last season when Brighton's position wasn't worthy of their efforts.
The issue with eXpected stats is that it depends on an algorithm. This means (a) it's only as good as however good (or not good) the creator of the algorithm is, and (b) it will always skew to favor certain types of players (sometimes wrongly like A. Traore) and dis-favorably towards other types (like Son or Doucoure). As an example, let's compare ESR with Saka and one stat in particular - touches in the opposition box. ESR often arrives in a good position in the box for a shot. Either a team mate finds him, in which case he registers one touch which is the shot, or they don't, in which case he registers 0 touches in the box for that attacking phase. If the latter happens 3 times and the former once, the stats will register that ESR had only 1 touch in the box when he had been in a good goal scoring position 4 times. Saka by contrast, is in the box a lot. Often via his own carry which means that there are defenders all around him. He registers touches all game but many are not goal scoring opportunities but will result in a turnover or a blocked assist attempt. I.e. Based on how these touches occur, an ESR touch in the box is worth more (in terms of goal attempts per touch) than a Saka touch, (same thing with Dennis vs King) but just looking at a stat table will not account for that. This is _not_ to say that one player is better than the other (and with ESR minutes now not guaranteed, Saka certainly is the better pick at this time), just that stats are useful tools, but they are not without flaws either. Whenever they seem to contradict the eye test, I personally always go for the eye test.
@@LetsTalkFPL Actually I wouldn't mind knowing exactly what goes into what algos (especially x points per game) at what weighting. 😁 For example, as I understand it, where a shot is taken from is incorporated into xG. However, the difficulty of "where" is different for different people e.g. Is Salah's xG lower than it should be because he takes on shots from tight angles which are generally low xG but in reality aren't low xG for him (as can be seen by the goals vs Chelsea, Watford and City)?
@@sbam4881 from what I know - finishing skill isn't as meaningful as people think. Being able to get into the right positions more often than not is the most important. So where you are taking the shot from is more important than finishing skill. If you look at Salahs expected data he doesn't usually finish above xG by a huge amount, especially over the last few seasons.
@@LetsTalkFPL I think S Bam has a point. Look at Kane and Salah's - arguably among the best finishers in the world - goals over the last seasons vs their xG. The last 4 seasons, before the current one, Kane consistently "overperformed" from between 0.07 and 0.26 (?!). This season he's done the opposite, which is not surprising if you've seen a few Spurs matches. 2 of the last 5 seasons, Salah's goals have more or less matched his xG - 3/5 he's "overperformed." Except I don't think it's overperforming when it's the case more often than not. I think Kane and Salah, overall, are better than average finishers and the xG algorithm doesn't take it into account.
Or ones like like to pretend and sound like they are 'true fpl managers'. What is a true fpl manager anyway? The very phrase fpl manager is an oxymoron. 1) The word 'manager' - Each person who participates is not a manager - but a gamer who likes to pretend they are a manager. Picking icons that represent players on a database. 2) FPL - Fantasy Premier League - it is fantasy a dreamworld 3) True - very little about the game is true to life - it is manufactured - there are fpl assists, bonus points, chips, Free Hits, Wildcards and so on.
I`m watching your video and when I heard you pronounce Volland I had to write :D In Holland, Germany and other countries you pronounce V as F, so you would pronounce Volland as Folland. Good video as always
With Smith Rowe, you have to put into consideration other factors. For example, style of play.. (he's more a direct player, he's not always taking shots and dribbling. He's very likely to score with very minimal contribution (he has the highest efficiency rate of all scorers in the league) as opposed to like Odegaard that will have the ball the most and unlikely to score) He's also playing to get into world cup squad. He has a lot of backing from management. You really can't look past him. I fancy him to keep scoring.
I agree, stats are very important, and xG is a good indicator, but it is just an indicator, there are too many variables in a single chance to accurately calculate how much "xG" that chance is worth. It will get better as time goes on, but right now, I think we, the FPL community (especially the FPL content creator community) rely on it too heavily. Just my opinion. Rank 28,408 in case you were wondering.
13k overall and I'd say I am a mix of both, most importantly I look at fixtures over a 3-5 gameweek period and try to choose players who seem most involved when I watch the game. It's why I went with Saka over Smithe Rowe, he's just a better player and more involved in Arsenal's team overall imo.
In AFL Fantasy we also look at role. Bernardo Silva could have 2 different xG based on his role. If he's playing KDB's role his inflated output was about right for those games. We see now he's back in his normal role and his xG is about right for that.
Rewatching this video now and after reviewing last season I've definitely realised that not paying attention to stats has been a missing ingredient when it comes to taking that big step into the top 10 or 1k. Eye test and pure guesswork can only take you so far. Something to work on for sure.
Maybe a video on you’re past worst mistakes and best moves during the entire time you have been playing FPL. I am only in my second year so something like that would be interesting to me.
What or which table would you look at for a defender? Like I get for an attacker you looking at XG whats the opposite stat for a defender? Thank you andy for this Awesome video... First Time FPL and you by far the best guide I've come across :)
Completely agree with you apart from one thing. Stats can change can’t they? I don’t think Bernardo was overperforming his stats I think the stats didn’t take into account the new position he was taking up. The reason he started to dip was due to him playing fairly deeper. If he carried on in that position for the rest of the season the stats would of rose as he continued to bag. Stats are the way to go but it’s 50/50 you need to watch football to get an idea on just how good a player on fpl really will be.
How would you take in to consideration the position of City players when you look at the stats. De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva in front three are very different from when they play deeper on the pitch
You could probably check the data from those times they play differently but also that would then be a small sample. Also worth noting Bernardos numbers are still pretty low for someone who played further forward at times
Re: Foden vs Silva: xGI90 is one thing. This has to be multiplied with points for goals and assists, and then number of minutes played. Continuing on for instance comparing Silva and Foden: After multiplying these numbers, Foden is not much better than Silva. Might chalk that down to unlucky injuries, or perhaps Foden is rotated more? Also: Add up expected points per 90 minutes (for playing min. 60 minutes), expected bonus points per 90 minutes, expected CS points per 90 minutes (which adds up for City midfielders!), and subtract expected yellow cards, and you see why Foden ends up way below Silva in total points. I think Silvas expected points per match (on average) from just being on the field and collecting bonus points (Silva is Citys second best bonus magnet after Cancelo) and clean sheets (which adds up for City players!), even exceeds the expected points for Foden for goals and assists, per match, on average. Silva is ranked 5th for total points so far in FPL, behind Salah, TAA, Cancelo and Son, but was priced just £7m to begin with, which was £1m lower than Foden too. Now that Mahrez is out for a while, we might perhaps see more of Foden?
I think something that’s not talked about is how teams play differently depending on their opponent. For example Leicester might concede a lot cuz they play attacking but only against weaker sides, whereas they’re more defensive against tougher opponents. It’s just an example so it might not necessarily be true about Leicester. But I think the idea is something that needs to be considered when thinking about fixtures.
Anybody know why the West Ham vs Norwich fixture isn’t showing up on PL app? Not sure wether it’s called off or wether the game is in a while as I had the thought it was in a couple days
Hi Andy, thanks for doing this. Very interesting. When you have two players A and B who perhaps are a 50/50 call with stats similar. You go with B, but player A score well over a few weeks. How do you go about assessing whether you should jump from B to A? You know that player A will have to revert back to average but what do you look for to determine if the sideways move is worth doing? Reason for asking is that I have arrived on a good number of players late just as they stopped scoring this season and I’m trying to work out how I can avoid doing it againz
Andy. @17:02 you label stats xGI per season/player. What exactly is XGI and from where exactly are you harvesting/deducing those stats? Otherwise great video. Don't know why but my comments keep disappearing. RU-vid bug? (Expected Goals... but them what. is I? Involvement?)
xGI = xG + xA combined. So xGI per 90 is xG per 90 + xA per 90. Need to take into account that goals are worth more than assists when you look at these numbers. All the numbers were from the website used in the video :)
I just go off form, fixtures, and career history (points in previous seasons) lol. Maybe that's why I'm so low in rank But nah its cause I take hits every week ^
Bernardo Silva is playing in lots of different positions so your stats shoauld take that into account but they dont. You seem to have a massive issue with ESR, he will finish with more points than your beloved Saka. XG is very subjective, it has been very inexplicable in games for me where they have decided a player should have scored with a leg they usually stand on with a volley in comparison to much more favourable conditions.
Just like anything, there's tonnes of players who fit a certain model, in this case xG, but there's always outliers. Son is clearly an outlier with xG, he laughs in the face of it every season. We can say it's not random chance anymore. Same with someone like Dzeko, who is the exact opposite, consistently finishes below his xG every season. But key to remember these players are very rare, so it's a good idea to trust xG in general.
Nobody can predict the future, they can only go on past events to “guess” a probable outcome. There is a reason investors, gamblers etc are purely stats based.
I only watch ManUtd and not every single game , my rank around 30K and i have players in FPL team that i never watch him playing Livramento for example i never watch him played 😂 STATS are important
Why do the FPL community intentionally misinterpretation expected stats. They are worthless other than how well a team is playing, or this player over performs he is good, this player under performs he is bad. They are exclusively referential, independently for players, they have zero use. No. They are not predictive. Other than a player that is under his xg will continue to be a bad player.
@@LetsTalkFPL everything in this video intentionally misinterpreted what they are. Expected goals gives Phil Jones the same chance of scoring a right footed shot in the box as Ronaldo. It’s the average of all shots taken by all players hence, “expected” NOT predicted. You know this as well and the community knows it and ignores it. You know why? As long as everyone keeps nodding no has to accept they misunderstood it. It completely ignores the ability of any specific player.
@@mattheendpod2659 I LITERALLY covered players being "the same" and I specifically mentioned Phil Jones 😂 think we have spotted who didnt watch the video. Although maybe I didn't explain correctly. Either way it's an argument that shows more understanding needed
@@LetsTalkFPL I watched probably half of it, so if that’s the case it’s actually funny. And jokes on me. However, I don’t understand why there would be a video at all in which case. These are the stats I use but finally, this is why they don’t work.
@Let’sTalk FPL Exactly I don’t remember anyone saying anything when you picked Foden over Silva when Silva was scoring points and then Foden gets 12 points and Silva 1
@@LetsTalkFPL 'Form is just like a bird that passes by. Sometimes you have it all the time around you, sometimes it just flies away and you don't know what the reason is.' - Ruud Gullit.
@@LetsTalkFPL It;s made up by people who decide what they personally think should go into an expected goal/assist formula. I'm not against using it or any other stats for that matter though.
I find people who are hung up on stats do not watch the games properly. So it is a lot of peoples short cut these days. Plus I always get the feeling people who quote stats have the feeling they 'know' something. Or at least sound like they know something. There are a lot of nonsense stats. Plus even good stats are no use if they are not interpreted correctly. Ok I am not a stats man at all really. I watch the games more than anything when I make my decisions. But the people hung up on stats alone fall for the likes of 'Adama Traore' every time. There is no stat for confidence in front of goal and the type of effort. Was it a hail Mary job or a controlled effort? People hung up on stats ignore the likes of ESR and Vardy - because they do not fit neatly into a box. However, people who watch games would see a very different story. There is no stat for confidence, body language, determination, football intelligence. At one stage I used to think the cliche was 'the underlying stats' by those stats nerds. However, now I think the full cliche is 'but...the underlying stats'. Normally said incredulously when the 'data' does not perform as expected.
