Fragile But Intact: Understanding India and Pakistan’s Three-Year Ceasefire

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On February 24, 2021, India and Pakistan announced a renewal of the cease-fire along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir. Three years later, the cease-fire has become one of the longest-lasting in the countries’ 75-year shared history. However, Christopher Clary’s new USIP report, “The 2021 India-Pakistan Ceasefire: Origins, Prospects, and Lessons Learned,” argues that the cease-fire remains vulnerable to shocks from terrorist attacks, changes in leadership and shifting regional relations.
On March 8, USIP hosted a conversation on the LoC cease-fire that explored findings from this new USIP report, the factors that have help keep the cease-fire in place, and what new regional dynamics could mean for its sustainability in the future.
For more information about this event, please visit: www.usip.org/events/fragile-i...
Speakers:
Christopher Clary
Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Albany
Happymon Jacob
Founder and Honorary Director, Council for Strategic and Defense Research
Asfandyar Mir
Senior Expert, South Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace
Tamanna Salikuddin, moderator
Director, South Asia Programs, U.S. Institute of Peace
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The United States Institute of Peace is a national, nonpartisan, independent institute, founded by Congress and dedicated to the proposition that a world without violent conflict is possible, practical and essential for U.S. and global security. In conflict zones abroad, the Institute works with local partners to prevent, mitigate, and resolve violent conflict. To reduce future crises and the need for costly interventions, USIP works with governments and civil societies to build local capacities to manage conflict peacefully. The Institute pursues its mission by linking research, policy, training, analysis and direct action to support those who are working to build a more peaceful, inclusive world. Learn more about USIP: www.usip.org/about

Опубликовано:

10 мар 2024

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Комментарии : 110

@anjan67 4 месяца назад

Article 370 is an Indian internal matter. No need to bring it in the discussion 🙏🏻

@RajKiran-nx4kr 4 месяца назад

2 Muslims, 1 US propagandist for 🇵🇰and just one INDIAN.

@EoamerGaming97 4 месяца назад

@@RajKiran-nx4kr mate this is not India where every fucking thing u guys see are related in religion, No wonder u guys are where u are and the US is where it is

@jaibholenath6900 3 месяца назад

Man what do u expect out of deep State Nautanki?

@lucifur5936 3 месяца назад

@@RajKiran-nx4kr 1 Indian and that too a convert 😇😅

@user-ne4ek3un5i 4 месяца назад

Old rum is now fress bottle,nothing going to change near 2,3 decade😂

@BlackSabbath10019 4 месяца назад

I think its wrong to assume that that India can not achieve its global aspirations unless it has good relations with Pakistan. India’s global status has been rising rapidly despite bad relations with Pakistan over the last decade or so and the trend will continue. Pakistan on the other hand has become increasingly weak & irrelevant globally. So if anyone has to take the initiative to mend fences, it’ll have to be Pakistan.

@vishnumohannair8506 4 месяца назад

There is a interesting lesson from Chanakya neethi. You can corner an enemy and remove their ability to cause damage, but a weak enemy who has retained the ability to do damage should not be cornered beyond a point. They need to achieve only 1% success in the their attempt to create damage whereas India has to be 100% successful to prevent damage. So as much as we corner them economically, we should let the Pak military to keep their ego

@RajKiran-nx4kr 4 месяца назад

Not only that. Between 80s to 2010s, Pak did maximum terrorism on India. During this exact time India’s economy and stature took off and Pakistan has sinked.

@BlackSabbath10019 4 месяца назад

@@vishnumohannair8506 - While I agree with you in principle, the officers in the top brass of the Pakistani military establishment are not warriors, but rather businessmen and power brokers. If India makes the cost of any adventurism too high for them personally (and to a large extent India has), they will not put their personal interests at risk. They talk tough but when hit hard, they fall to their knees and start praying.

@rakadus 4 месяца назад

@@BlackSabbath10019People will come, people will go. Capacities and capabilities remain. Focus on the permanent aspects will prevent a surprise.

@BlackSabbath10019 4 месяца назад

@@rakadus - Wrong. Capacities & capabilities also change with economies and change in resources. And we all know where that's headed for the two countries.

@nitishbanerjee4241 4 месяца назад

Indians don't discuss Pakistan

@BlackSabbath10019 4 месяца назад

A point that most of the supposed intellectuals don't mention is that whenever Pakistan has been economically stronger, it has fomented trouble in India, be it overtly through the 1965 & 1999 wars or covertly throughout the 80s, 90s & 2000s with innumerable terror attacks. So from a strategic POV, an economically challenged Pakistan teetering on the brink of bankruptcy is good for India. India should not help Pakistan's cause in any way. Completely ignoring it is the best policy.

@anujay81 4 месяца назад

पाकिस्तान की गोलियाँ खत्म हो गई थी, इसलिए ceasefire के लिए राजी हो गया l

@DeepakKumar-uj6br 4 месяца назад

no need to engage with pakistan.. glad india is doing great by investing time on fta, semiconductor and pli... absolute no need to engage on anything with struggling pakistan

@SanjayGupta-wg2my 4 месяца назад

kashmir population has to be restored to 100% hindus. we had eighth genecoicide of hindus in 1990s. those whi forget historybound to repeat it

@atanumandal3586 4 месяца назад

*The window of opportunity for Pakistan* to resolve Kashmir issue with India - by simply accepting the current LOC as international border and move on to improve relations with India - *is no longer available!* Even the Modi government was open to it till the Uri attack took place in 2018. Since then, and particularly after 5th August 2019 when article 370 in India was abrogated in Jammu & Kashmir, the Indian approach to Kashmir has fundamentally changed! Now a *final solution to the Kashmir problem* will happen only when the entire Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan) moves back to India. The Indian government knows that Pakistan is not going to wilfully handover, but has to be compelled to part with POK. Indian government now believes that this is simply a matter of time as the differential of political and economic power between the two countries widen further and further till Pakistan breaks under the force of competition and rivalry with India..

@brucevilla 4 месяца назад

Thanks for Uploading.

@futuristicpowerofgalaxy 4 месяца назад

Pakistan movie nority has killed down from 23% to 1.3 % in 70 years. But theybsay forget all this side hidden happenings ( which still happening)..

@isacr4063 4 месяца назад

Why should india make the concessions? If pakistan need something, let them pay for it. Pakistan deserves no sacrifice from india.

@psarathy66 3 месяца назад

as uncle sam vacated afghan for the double game of pak, it has started scre**** them in the economic front . Post 2019 pak shot itself with banning india import which is making the inflation worse off in pakistan . india has worked with gcc to ensure that it does not get huge aid from them ; with this pak is with begging bowl and the army has gone for farming

@Maverick-zo4kc 2 месяца назад

India has isolated Pakistan. This is the success of India's foreign policy under PM Modi's relationship.

@rakadus 4 месяца назад

Any sponsors for one way ticket to Pakistan for Prof. Jacob?

@Interstellar2123 3 месяца назад

whenever you see names like institute of peace or institute of religious freedom etc make no mistake its a fraud 😂

@ravisankargollakota3888 4 месяца назад

I think we need to bring POK in meeting

@KausikGupta-lv7ho 4 месяца назад

In short, 🇮🇷🇦🇫🤜🤛🇵🇰🤝🇮🇳🤜🤛🇨🇳

@futuristicpowerofgalaxy 4 месяца назад

True.. check the painting behind this second men speaking. It's karachi , pakistan 😬. Imagine how he is trying to prove pak is so necessary for India . He simply terroring India that if u don't improve ur relationship with Pakistan then u Indian will suffer.. and so he points that India has to initiate .such a hypocrite.. nice try... 😂 ..we all know reality of ur interests

@lucifur5936 3 месяца назад

What a joke about maintaining peace......we Bharatiyas are already in 2.5 front war & with our very capable Defence personal/forces there is no doubt at all that Bharat can handle ALL on its own very capably. The Chinese morons(over 200 in numbers)fled the scene when 20 soldiers from our brave Silh regiment confronted them in Dec 2022 in Arunachal Tibet border. The Pakistani army fled from their posts when the Naga Regiment called Head Hunters were after the Pakistani beheaded heads to be retained as trophies in & during the Kargil War. Pakistani Army was shitting in their pants and immediately returned IAF pilot Abhinandan as Bharatiya missiles were looking down on them in their eyes 😇😅. Yes Kashmir needs to addressed for lasting peace but not Kashmir......discussions needs to happen on Pakistan occupied Kashmir & Baltistan 🙏

@lucifur5936 3 месяца назад

@HRC294 4 месяца назад

To mr Larry: LOL! Okay!

@futuristicpowerofgalaxy 4 месяца назад

Well discussion over 😂. Now lets bring new topic on USA - CALIFORNIA partition. Does California has right to be Independent?? Lets talk on ur own country this time. I hope u bring good insights in this

@Maverick-zo4kc 2 месяца назад

The LoC is a temporary border between India and Pakistan. The LoC will become irrelevant after India takes back PoJK and PoGB in the near future.

@safdarakbari 4 месяца назад

I think it is in Pakistans interest to open its borders to Pakistan. Otherwise no one is going to Invest in Pakistan or take it seriously

@arjunr5578 4 месяца назад

Pakistan is a failed state 😂

@tatoloco4 4 месяца назад

Afsandyar, i suggest that you keep your hand movements out of the frame.....it is a distraction from your excellent narrative !!!

@santoshkumar2992 3 месяца назад

Your discussion is west of time When pak is strong ceasefire end

@ourkashmirok4576 4 месяца назад

No need of four point formula we kashmiris want right to self determination.,as per the UN resolution

@AjitKumar-lo9yu 4 месяца назад

Which resolution we are talking about, article 370 revocation has made this irrelevant now. If you consider yourself and Indian then fight an election and bring development there else move to Pakistan.

@ourkashmirok4576 4 месяца назад

@@AjitKumar-lo9yu u should have to learn what actually UN resolution said it doesn't depend on 370 etc .. resolution of kashmir dispute depends upon four points not on 370

@AjitKumar-lo9yu 4 месяца назад

Irrelevant period. Do not be in a fantasy world, no self determination is happening, no where in India has it happened.

@ourkashmirok4576 4 месяца назад

@@AjitKumar-lo9yu same as itz world was telling about Taliban but the Americans go down to the knees in front of Taliban what you are saying about this

@ourkashmirok4576 4 месяца назад

@@AjitKumar-lo9yu india is using force here that doesn't mean struggle is silent come here and tell the people's what do you want u will understand

@Maverick-zo4kc 2 месяца назад

This joker Happymon Jacob is batting for Pakistan. He is a complete sell out. Shame on him.

@shawalkhan7659 4 месяца назад

Both India and Pakistan need to resolve their issues overtly. It is in the best interest of both the countries to have a good relationship. I agree with Dr Christ's view that he sees India like Israel in terms of security in the future. I think the current government of India holds the static ideology of RSS that harms relationships with India's other neighbors i.e Maldives is the recent instance. In the current global political and economic system no country alone can achieve its aims. It is also in the best interest for Pakistan to have a good relationship with India which will help her in security matters as well as focusing its attention towards other problems. India can't ignore Pakistan for the longer run if she wants to compete with China. For the better relationship India and Pakistan both should do compromises and India has to act according to the security council resolution that has been accepted.

@harshsaini9898 4 месяца назад

😂😂😂

@SurajMandal-lj6hc 4 месяца назад

Sorry' mate I don't think our country needs any friendly relationship with your country to achieve geopolitical goals we already achieved many economical and military , political goal in recent without making any good relationship with Pakistan and i don't think your country will be give any benefit to us.

@lucifur5936 3 месяца назад

@razamalik2198 4 месяца назад

Tha great leader of Pakistan Imran kahan ❤🇵🇰🇵🇰🇵🇰🇵🇰🇵🇰🇵🇰🇵🇰🇵🇰🇵🇰🇵🇰🇵🇰🇵🇰 #IMRAN #RELEASEIMRAN #RELEASEIMRAN #pakistan #IMRAN

@Maverick-zo4kc 2 месяца назад

😂😂😂😂

@tanny786 4 месяца назад

Kashmir is a intregral part of Pakistan

@AjitKumar-lo9yu 4 месяца назад

😂😂😂😂😂

@rakadus 4 месяца назад

What about Balochistan? Is it also an integral part?

@BlackSabbath10019 4 месяца назад

Kashmir ke chakkar mein East Pakistan haath se nikal gaya lekin tab bhi tum logon ko akl nahi aayi. Ab Baluchistan, KP aur Sindh bhi haath se jayenge. Tum Kashmir ka khwaab dekhte raho beta.

@jaibholenath6900 3 месяца назад

P0rk!st@n is integral part of Bharat minus Izlam.

@lucifur5936 3 месяца назад