I will say this. When I played holiday cup. Vigoroth was supposed to be everywhere. I intentionally ran a lead weak to it and to counters in the back. The team was S. Walrein, Palosand, S. Golurk. I seen a couple vigoroth and thats it in 5 sets of 25 battles total. I ran into lanturn often. like lead after lead it was present. So I switched to S. Abomasnow and all of a sudden I had Talonflame lead against me 9/10 times. As soon as I switched my lead to Lanturn, talonflame was gone and I only seen 1/10 in the lead. But then I would get more of a variety of leads and I was much happier with that result. The funny part was out of all those battles due to my back line. I only seen vigoroth a total of like 10/60 battles. It just didn’t add up to me. I know part of it is just due to a limited/condensed meta. I just couldn’t explain the absence of it when it was everywhere at the start of my battles during that cup.
I'm convinced the GBL algorithm exist and is intended to make the game more addictive using the intermittent reinforcement strategy. I'm not sure there is an algorithm that tries to limit the win rate, but the pattern of teams faced in GBL definitely seems to change according to the Pokemon chosen by the player. It seems like there is at least an attempt to align teams with many reciprocal relationships of weakness and resistances to make the matches more dynamic and exciting. Catching Pokemon with good IVs for GBL and getting resources to evolve and level up is what keeps a portion of players active on the app (including me). Limiting the win rate make players feel like they always need more and better Pokemon and, as a consequence, this certainly leads players to invest more time and money on the game.
On the other hand, a player with a very low win rate would quickly lose interest in the game, and that certainly wouldn't be good for Niantic's business. My point is that keeping the win rate around 50% is ideal for keeping players motivated and with the sense that they always need to improve their teams. If you look into intermittent reinforcement, you will notice that this situation where an action or behavior results in an outcome (win or loss) that is not easily predictable has great potential to keep individuals repeating the action. This is the mechanism that fosters addiction in games and gambling.
I think you're definetely correct. Same thing in almost all ranked or elo based games nowadays. Gaming companies know the exact science of how to keep you playing longer.
I mean we know the game has some amount of an MMR system because you are matched against players with similar ELO. Regardless of how this is calculated if the system manages to reflect a players skill at least partially accurately all it has to do is match other players at that same MMR and the players will trend toward 50%. This is why players hit a plateau, you've gained until you hit your appropriate MMR and now you are playing other players of relative equal skill. And the more games you play the more likely you are to trend toward that 50%. I'd be curious to see someone actually track every game they play in a season and do the statistical analysis required to determine whether a match qualifies as a "hard counter" or not because like I think there are a lot of matchups that look really bad on the surface but are less bad than people assume. Matchups where you think you're hard countered but if you do the analysis via pvp you actually have a like 40% win chance when played correctly. Anyway I enjoyed this video, always great to get a DanOttawa end of video rant as the whole video XD
Well, obviously, *some sort of algorithm exists* but the question is, exactly how does it work? Niantic doesn't want anyone to know, so we're all in the dark. Just in the last two hours I ran an experiment: I waited until the end of the day so i could run my sets then ten minutes later the reset would happen and I could do my next day's sets. First I ran a Def Deoxys, Toxapex, and Skarmory team. The first set I did well, got 4/5 wins. Then the second set BAM suddenly I'm running into teams that are double electric and bug - the exact counter to my team. Won 2/5 games. I ran another set like this, just to see, and I kid you not, I barely got 1 win out of 5, and was hard countered 3/5 games in that set. So I switched it up and ran triple dragon. Shadow Dragonair, Altaria, and Zweilous. First set it was mostly random team comps, won 3/5. Would have won 4 but i fumbled the bag. Anyways, final set of the day I stayed with the triple dragon and I KID YOU NOT in 4/5 games I ran into triple ice users, double fairy users, and other dragons. Basically, i was hard countered. So ended up having nearly a 50/50 win loss ratio after 5 sets. Waited 10 minutes for the reset, then ran the exact same two teams. Virtually the same results. It seems when you first switch up your team, you have a set where the game is trying to figure out your team. Then it starts countering you. At that point, if you don't have a strong team comp and skills, you basically lose until you're back at 50/50, was my experience. I've heard people say it's about ELO, it's random so of course you'll get coincidences like this, blah blah blah. And of course, all of that is true! But it's not the whole story when it comes to the algorithm. I'm going to do this experiment again and make a video out of it and see if I can crack the code.
The truth is they pair you up agaisn't teams that will just destroy yours as to keep you from winning too often. And that's their bs attempt at keeping you invested, like it should make you feel you have to improve your team or your own skills. When that's not true, you're going to run into your hard counters far too often either way. You either care too much about Pokemon to not drop the game completely, or you quit because both the matchmaking and the game's entire battle system design is too insipid for you to want to bother. Unfortunately I'm the former and trying to grind for TMs or stardust is more stressing than anything because of the stupid algorhythm and because of spoofers bringing full legendary teams (or pseudos, there's really no difference) that hard counter my team. I wish I could just be paired with normal teams so the fights I lose at least were fun. Not just the same kind of pussies bringing Mewtwos and Dragonites over and over.
@@catguy23 That's a technique that EA Sport also use with their football game FC24. Basically they have a script in the game where a skilled player gets heavily handicapped against less skilled/newbie players. Making it nearly impossible for him to win, closing that skill gap between them and thus frustrating the player. Making him think that his team isn't good enough and forcing him to buy coins with real money to spend for his team ect .. It's a new technique developers are using to trick their customers to spend more money
Personal experience, 2 seasons ago, I put an alolan nine lead and see lanturns 2 sets a row, the moment I swap to a swampert lead the next set and grass appears. Frustrated, I put my alolan nine back, and I see lanturns and 1 poliwraith the next set. I won't say I have never got any good leads before, but things like this keeps me convinced that there is definitely an algorithm.
I understand you, and i think you're right. But how many times i have won 5/5. And next set i lose 5/5 because i get hard counterd, you really start questioning the algorithm. So i definitely understand the frustration a lot of people have😅.
I mean, the 4-1 1-4 happens, but things aren’t always that polarizing. The goal should be to get at least 2-3 in the particularly tough sets to minimize losses, and try to get more 3-2s with the occasional big win to climb. I have a friend who hits legend every season and always (half) jokingly tells me to simply win more than I lose. If the same people who master the game can do it every single season, so can we with perseverance and practice. I also experience the big wins followed by big losses, and am learning to acknowledge that it wasn’t just me getting hard countered. I can identify the moments I completely threw the game and try to not make those mistakes in the future. Blaming it on the algorithm is counter intuitive to improvement.
I feel like one of the main reasons for the GBL is to keep people playing at night when raids are done. A way for people to stay engaged with the game so that they’ll come back the next day and spend money.
But also how many people are gridning all the other things for use in GBL? Like XL candy pretty much only really really matters for GBL and folks who short man raids.
This is the thing: it’s a controversial thing to say there is an algorithm and most of that RU-vidrs deny it, leading many to assume there isn’t one. However, as a competitive fighting game player, I see a very clear parallel to how fighting game players behave. When there is a clear balance issue that requires the developer’s attention for a healthy meta, many players still insist that the game is perfectly balanced. This is because they believe that if they point out overpowered stuff, this will reflect poorly on them and imply that they’re too bad to deal with the character or moves in concern. It’s the same in PoGo with the algorithm. People deny its existence out of fear to be labeled a “scrub” as we say in the FGC. The reality is, however, that the algorithm DEFINITELY exist and I’m not ashamed to say that as a player who’s reached legend many times and once on three different accounts on the same season. My hypothesis is actually that beyond trying to keep players at a 50% WR, it also favors paying players and punishes free players, but I’m not entirely sure about that one.
I do not agree with Niantic not winning anything out of GBL. Premium battle passes are an investment many content creators make for example for premium rewards. Also in order to max out XL mons I know people who raided Medis hard to be able to play in bring6 tournaments. You also use a lot of resources - candies, stardust - to max out mons for various leagues, and while this is not money in the direct sense, often it is because you may also purchase bonuses to get more stardust/candies. But biggest cash cow of all is legendaries and Master League! The fact that you do not play it does not mean that others do not invest very heavily in it financially. So GBL is extremely profitable for Niantic because of Master League, also Ultra League has become extremely legendary and XL oriented lately.
I think the thing I see most in GBL that supports SOMETHING going on is team structure IE: you run lanturn/medi you run into lanturn/medi, but you run some crazy non meta voltorb/swellow team you will see WAY less meta Pokémon. Since I’m crashing this season I’ll run an experiment and report back if it’s just me thinking this or if its true.
UPDATE: 12 matches in. 6 with Meta Pokemon and 6 without. Started at rank 17. Won 6 lost 6 lol (I’m not that great so don’t read into that). As far as what I’m running into, as of yet it’s not THAT different from the non meta to the meta team. Non meta has seen some oddball Pokemon but that could just be a coincidence. Gonna run it again tomorrow and see if it changes. Keeping a record of every match and will update tomorrow.
The reason I think something is going on with an algorithm, perhaps one that looks at moves rather than type or the mon itself, is because of my experience running a variety of ABB lines. For example, if I use Alolan Sandslash with two waters in the back, suddenly I get matched against Breloom leads. Not too often mind you, but I don’t think I have ever seen anyone run Breloom even once outside of when I run that ABB line. Viruzion makes sense because it’s part of the meta. But Breloom? That is very fishy, especially at higher ranks. Without a look at their actual server matching code how can anybody really even know? I get that cognitive bias is a thing but it seems to go beyond that at times if you win too much.
I only run random teams. Auto Rekt since season 1 the entire season, no matter the league. Hundreds of mons built including mons I never see anyone else running. I can assure you no matter how random the poke you will still see meta poke. Imo it's not about the Pokémon you run its about the typing and moveset on the poke.
Niantic has put a statement sometime back that stated 50% win rate is good for the game. I wish I had taken a picture of the statement. I have to admit that I am not good at counting, but I do have “good” Pokémon. It is very strange, that when I am at or about 49% win rate I am the best player. I do win 5-0 4-1 most of the time until I get on around 51-52% win rate. Then the hard counters keep coming, sometimes with Pokémons that you see once every couple of years. Once i reach the 49% win rate the cycle begins again. I just enjoy the game now. I have given up trying to climb the ranks.
To me the point where I knew there was an algorithm 100% is swapping my lead to togekiss and immediately facing 3 consecutive Empoleon leads in MASTER LEAGUE against differentopponents. That was the only 3 times I have ever seen Empoleon in Masters in thousands of battles.
@@yggefry2078 that makes no sense. I honestly don’t know how difficult it is to program an algorithm that keeps your win rate at 50% because there’s no way that it can read your team. I’ve talked to a couple of programmers and they say that there is one. I don’t think anyone can reach legend in my opinion
@arcadeguy781 If there is a discord hack that can read the team and tell you all of the pokemon and their moves then obviously Niantic has access to that information as well and can write a match making algorithm with ease. It doesn't keep you at 50% but it keeps you close to 50% because obviously some battlers are good enough to overcome it. Best PvPers only have a high 50's win rate
Great video. I can’t express how much respect you’ve earned by talking about “The Algorithm”. I don’t agree with you though. I difference between Legend and Not is finesse. Legend players know how to build teams that can barely overcome the Algorithm. They learn/memorize the exact move necessary to steal a win. I am curious what the win % for ranked players ends at. I believe Leaderboard players have memorized Counts for all Meta and using all other mechanics like Time optimization. But the Counts is what truly separate them from players that hit Legend and drop back down to 2700. I think the most obvious Algorithm moments are when you’re 0-2 for a set 90% of the next matches I have hard countered the opponent. Also the gatekeeping for Ranks. I don’t think I’ve ever Ranked up on a 3-2 set. And get knocked down multiple times before hitting Expert. The Algorithm is all within reason like you said. I can’t be using trash Mon (Zero Meta Mon) and expect to hit Legend, unless they are anti-meta. The Statistics portion was fun. I don’t think the % are accurate IRL. I think it would be awesome if your write down your Lead vs their Lead for a few days and see if it applies. Be sure to have symbols for Win and Loss and see how you get more favorable leads once it’s a negative set.
Damn PokeDaxi catching strays in the first half there homie haha! Great video as always, Dan. Thanks for taking the leap and putting the facts out there for the community. Apologies for the vocal minority that may cry out for your head on this one, keep up the great takes and thank you for your insightful input!
How do you account for seeing completely different teams when you switch up your own? If I use a team for say 5 sets, I see the same team comps from my opponent, but as soon as I switch up my team I see completely different teams with mons that I have not seen for days. And that’s consistent too. There is definitely some sort of match up algorithm based on pokemon.
@Homicizzle isn't that the point of this video? For him to tell us that we're bad cuz we don't hit legend every season like he does? Matter of fact, do you? 👀👀
Yeah I’ve noticed this too bein honest and I think it’s not merely cognitive bias. For example I’ve built teams with two waters in the back and Alolan Sandslash in front and I have never in my life seen Breloom run on any teams except when playing that comp lmfao - suddenly I’m getting matched against multiple Breloom leads which literally does not happen otherwise. People always bring up Niantic’s statement on it but if I recall right they used a very specific choice of words that ruled out one type of matching without necessarily removing others. Eg it could be the moves they have not their type or the mon itself, that kind of thing. Who knows without a look at their matching code.
Honestly I really love what you said about confirmation bias. It’s easy to believe that you’re being specifically targeted and that’s why you’re on a losing streak but you conveniently forget that there were just as many times that you completely hard countered your opponent. People put way too much stock into lead matchups - I mean yeah they’re important but having a bad lead isn’t an auto loss just as having a good lead isn’t an auto win. What both players have in the back is just as important and can swing the match just as much as the lead matchup. Just as an example, I’m currently running a Poliwrath/Dragonair/Skeledirge line and earlier on faced a Lanturn/Dewgong/Trevenant line. Hard countered on the lead and on switch but still won because I managed to align Skeledirge onto Trev in the back during the endgame. Having the skill set, knowledge of your team and experience to play around hard counters is what seperates the best players from the rest of us - sure there’s always going to be games where you just get completely countered and there is no win con at all, it happens. It doesn’t mean there’s some hidden system deliberately keeping you down - if you’re running a meta team you’re going to run into hard counters from time to time, there is no “perfect” team that has absolutely no weakness whatsoever. Why people seem to believe that Niantic have the competence to implement a system that matchmakes thousands of battles every minute right down to each individual players specific Pokemon and movesets and organise each pairing into “hard countered” vs “hard countering” when they can’t even keep the game itself running properly most of the time is beyond me. It’s also worth noting with regards to the whole “50% win/loss ratio” thing that say for example you go on a winning streak and you climb 100-200 elo, you need to take into account that at that point you’re going to be playing more skilled opponents than you were before so you’re naturally going to start losing more games again which of course is going to even out that W/L ratio.
1. The algoritham isn't just about lead machups 2. Ofcourse you hard counter the opponent about as many times as the opponent counters you because if the algoritham works against you at times it is also working for you at other times. 3. The reason why they would implement such a system is extremely simple. It makes you feel like you have to change up your pokemon after a time every so often making you invest in more pokemon and therefore making you invest more into the game. 4. Implementing such a system is extremely simple from a programming standpoint (I'm a programmer and also a game dev). Consistantly winning 3/5 to 5/5 for a long time and then suddenly losing almost every singe time to basically impossible matches, it really does not look random at all and its not "from time to time". The issue isn't that you sometimes lose and sometimes win. Yeah, you can flip some matches where the opponent counters you pretty hard but that is irrelevant. I can tell if I'm going to win almost every match in the next 15-20 matches or if I will lose most of them. If its just randomness I shouldn't be able to know that with such a high degree of predictability.
I think if leads were not duplicated it wouldn't be seen as an issue. Leading drifblim today I had 3 straight Lanturns. I had 2 bad sets and then switched my team with Dewgong as the lead and I had 5 straight dragon leads in my final set.
In open leagues, I want 5 unique leads a set. I realize in limited formats that could be an issue. Coding shouldn't be a problem (matchmaking exclude X in the lead) but Niantic.
i did a somewhat abb with venusaur umbreon and greninja. Guess what, after getting some positive sets and due to Venu beeing on lead I totally stopped seeing any lanturns or mud bois at all in like 25 games now. Fun fact is that i keep seeing fighter types and DD more due to 2 darks in the back. Scrag, medi ect.
I dont think there is a hard couunter mechanism, but there definitely are different variables in the algorithm. And one of them is leads. It's not 100% random i believe
It happens far too often that you play 13 matches and see the same 6 Pokémon the whole time. You’ll go “man, no one is running grass today” and throw Lanturn on the lead and get venasaur (this literally happened to me today). Not to mention all the sudden you change your team and you’re teleported into an alternate universe where the same 6 Pokémon you were seeing exclusively don’t exist, the meta completely changes. Change your team back? Ok back to earth. It happens far too often to ignore and that’s why people think there is a hard counter algorithm
It's really not too hard to comprehend the around "50%".. Don't know why people struggle so much with it. It's a competition. Based on your performance and points gained/lost you get matched up into Players of a similar Skillset. That is done by a formula, yes. An "algorithm" that determines your performance number "Elo" and sees who else is looking to battle with a similar number. Your battle starts.. If you think everybody should have an 80+% Winrate or whatever you're just bad at logic. That isn't possible. 100% of Players can't have an insane Winrate. The largest majority will be around 50%. Duh. Around 50% is an indication of a healthy and balanced Matchmaking. You'll win some, you'll lose some.. You'll outplay some, you'll get outplayed some.. And yes, sometimes you'll hardcounter or get hardcountered. That is only natural in a Blind 3 Format. Really good Players get to 60ish% roundabout (until they match into the other good Players of course).. Awful Players struggle to get to 50% until they learn some basics. Learn the Game. Run a balanced Team.. As e.g. said in the vid, if you have to ask what "replaces" Medicham in a video you watched, you don't understand enough about GO PvP.. It's not that you need a Medicham. It's the fact you don't understand what Medicham's role is on the Team featured. Is it clearing steel types? Or is it a Generalist? Is it being used to lure something out we are weak to in the back? You're missing the point.. But anyway, keep copying YT Teams every 24 hours and struggle to climb Elo by not thinking and blame the meanie Algo. Surely wildy jumping from Team to Team without a clue about Game Mechanics will serve you well.
One thing I have noticed is that when I keep playing with the same team...the matchmaking process is pretty quick. But once I change the team, the first match takes a bit longer in finding the player and then second game onwards its back to normal. I dont know if algorithm is real or not but this is something I have definitely noticed.
software engineer here, even if the algorithm was matchmaking based on your team comp, switching the team wouldn't affect the speed in any noticable way. All data in pogo is stored on Niantic's side, so every time you catch something, transfer something, get an item from a stop, etc, it's all being sent to Niantic. Your team is sent to their servers every time you battle. But if you want to confirm this, you could always bust out a spreadsheet and time it. Would need a pretty large sample size though
The algorithm exists, though it isn't as determined to make you lose as some people say it does. There's a reason some people will intentionally throw whole sets of battles, it's so that the algorithm will back off and pair them with eaiser opponents. GBL isn't a cash cow like raids and egg hatching are but don't forget that they strongly encourage players to spend premium raid passes by dangling more lucrative rewards in front of them (which imo is a bit devious since most times you could better rewards more reliably from doing legendary raids). The people who rise to the top are those who can finess their way to victory against the more challenging teams the algorithms pairs them against (or some could be cheesing it using the before mentioned method).
You can spin your argument of not making any financial sense in so many ways that it makes sense to put an algorithm though. Like here's one, master league.
Idk when i get sick of talanflame so i run A B B water, talanflame is gone and never returns ever again its like its non existent when my team destroys talon flame, its definitely suspicious. Im at 12,310 battles with 6,209 wins, you should do a poll to see how many watching this is at around 50%
People in general have trouble dealing with chance in gameplay. They forget the times they get lucky but remember when they have an unlucky streak. This combined with failing to understand what it takes to get really good at a complex game can lead people to believe a game is rigged.
I pushed to Veteran in my first season of GBL last season going from about 2200-2500 in 2 weeks or so once I settled on good meta team. I’ve been trying to keep learning all the skills and am going for at least Veteran and maybe expert or legend this season. You and the other channels have helped a lot. God bless
#1 the algorithm exists. #2 good players know how to beat the algorithm Both can be true. Your skill level still ends up mattering whether or not you reach legend. I've hit legend now for the last 2 seasons after slowly building my skills and my pokemon roster, both of which Dan mentions as being the two main issues for non legend players. This video seems 100% spot on. Build your roster, learn your counts, understand team comp, and you will get there.
Yes, you can work around it. I did the math for the standard distribution graph, and you have roughly 50% of a team countering yours & the same can be said for your team countering your opponent’s. High-skilled battlers can usually work around those losses, so their win percentages are higher. I can work around teams that counter mine, so my win percentage is roughly 55%. Whether it's real or not, we know that the top players can work around most teams that counter yours outside of the 16% that hard counters your team.
The algorithm talking would find an End, if PvP were like trainer battles from your friendship list. You tap on battle. Get an opponent from your elo range and then chose your Pokemon / Team you want to fight. And not before the game search the opponent.
I honestly think the Algorithm is real, but not in the sense of "Its gonna hard counter you". I think its more of "So youre using these types, with these types of attacks? Well heres a balanced set of the same. Good luck.
I totally understand what you are saying and I totally agree with the requirement of great IV pokemon that are maxed for the league being played, and 100% agree on the skill required (personally I just can't be bothered to invest the time to mem the moves and energy requirements and count fast moves to get to the top). And were it not for the issues with running into the same leads which hard counter you over and over and when you swap your lead/team and then instantly see different leads/teams from your opponent (often more hard counters) I wouldn't even consider the existence of an "algorithm". But that scenario happens to me so often it's hard to discount that something weird is going on. Maybe it is confirmation bias as you say but that's a hard pill to swallow when that happens so often over such a long span of time... Personally I have little desire to be that great at GBL; I play it for the dust and as an object in the catch game - gotta get those IV's! A great shieldon took me SOOOOOO long to find due to weather boost issues every time they were available. Arrggg.. But that's a bigger part of the fun of the game. GBL is just for dust and something to do when I can't/don't get out and catch. Thanks for your time and effort Dan, you are one of my favs for POGO content. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year
I think of me as a good beginner, almost average player, but having the 50% win rate in mind, I sometimes just loose a few games on purpose and can then somehow easily win the others. If I “try hard” I’ll reach the same win rate 🤷🏼♂️ so, is the chance to be hard countered actually about 50%? That would be interesting! Or does niantic help bad players to even get a 50% win rate 😅
20:49 ''The algorithm is not the reason you are losing. You are skillless. Your pokemon are. Stop blaming the algorithm. Understand that it is just statistic. Subscribe to the chanel and learn the skills.'' Well said Dan. Couldn't agree more.
This is a spicy video! I do notice though that a lot of times sets swing wildly 1-4 to 4-1, you would probably have to be like top player level to flip a lot of those games. I tried out bronzong today and I faced a lot of gfisk trev teams (rubix masters team shown on itsaxn's stream yesterday), and then after losing a bunch I started winning including a team with aba poison nidoqueen and clodsire, I don't know if thats coincidence but it seems extremely rare
You made a foundational statement that I believe is false. The statement was something about GBL not being a money maker because it keeps people inside not spending money. Out of my friends I am the only one that plays GBL. Im also the one that is grinding outside the most, grinding rare candies from raids the most, hatching eggs the most etc. This is because I am the only one with a use for getting new Pokémon. Meta changes and I need more or different Pokémon. I care about community days more. I care about spotlight hours more. I need to grind for better IV than them, since they just chase perfects or shinies. I would say GBL and keeping me playing and frustrated with a 50% win rate while chasing the pikachu libre is WHY I’ve spent more than my friends by a considerable amount.
Yeah.. Raids are so easy with several people you dont really need grind that hard get good raid team. And mostly shadow pokemon overpower everything. So pve player need mostly only focus find rocket fights and shadow pokemon instead hatching and fighting raids.
also, we are really ignoring that you’ll play 16 games and go “man I haven’t seen a single grass on lead” put in Lanturn and the next match is venasaur? This isn’t rare. It’s crazy how often it happens. I think that’s why people think there is a hard counter algorithm. You’ll see the same teams over and over again, the second you change your team you’re in a different universe with a completely different meta. I don’t know how we can ignore this
@@GerkinsGames Well dont think there any hard counter algo, just "normal" software try keep your winrate on 50%.. lot pvp based games got that kinda system nothing new. Just funny play ultra league and my team was quite weak to fairy. see xerneas two games row pretty sure there is some kinda algo.. play thousands and thousand gbl matches and never see xerneas pick and now two row and both lead against my dragonite. not mention rest set of games was togekiss which also quite rare to see now days.
Definitely exists but it doesn’t mean you can’t elo climb or win more than 50% but it is real. People who are good can still beat hard counters sometimes. I think the frustrating thing is that the encounters are not random so it’s hard to run spicy teams. I just think it would be more fun if the matchups were random. It also gets old when you see the same teams based on the teams you run over and over.
@@HomeSliceHenry henry come outta nowhere lol nice to see that the GBL community is so united...sadly the only thing keeping it from being even better is the algorithm discussion which divides so much people. in my opinion people should focus more on the game and having fun than discussing negative things.
@@HomeSliceHenry Just about every single PvP game out there has an algorithm. Go play Brawl on MTG Arena… the game takes into account your rank and what deck you are running and matches you up against your hard counter decks if you are winning too much. Same with League of Legends… the game’s algorithm matches you up with players similar to your rank and if you start to go on a win streak it partners you up with ppl that are on a losing streak. Hence to try and bring you back to 50% win rate. To suggest an algorithm doesn’t exist in Pokémon battle league is just stupid. Algorithm is what takes your Pokémon go rank and matches you up against opponents with similar rank and it also takes into account your win streak/losing streak and what Pokémon/moves you are using. This isn’t to say you can’t climb or do well if you count moves, good IV’s etc… but an algorithm does exist in Pokémon go
Well I was doing well with Tentacruel and suddenly fairies disappeared because everyone else was using Tentacruel. I adjusted my team and I've never seen so many fairies. You have to be stupid to run fairies within the current ELO, but I managed to run into all of them today.
If you run a team triple weak to something rare you will find that type of Pokémon in most matches all of a sudden. Sure, the meta changes, but I’m taking switching teams mid-session. When you do so it will appear as if the meta changes with your team composition. This is because of the algorithm, which I believe favors paying players.
I like the discussion of this video. I'm not sure what I believe when it comes to the GBL algorithm, but I've definitely had my fair share of frustrating matches. The days where you change your team 5 times in a set and each match you get hard countered, or you see a bunch of one pokemon in one set, so you put something in to hard counter it, then suddenly that pokemon is no where to be seen. Those games are incredibly annoying. My win % is roughly 52% though and I usually climb every season, so it's clear its not a perfect set 50%.
7:00 I disagree with you here about the financial incentive for PvP. The entire reason people like me do Raids is to get Pokémon to use in PvP and to get lots to trade for good PvP IVs. They also used to make money from people buying premium raid passes to “bet” wins for higher rewards in PvP. Technically this still exists but they nerfed those rewards down, probably to somewhat combat tanking. People like myself would’ve long quit PoGo if not for the PvP and Niantic knows this. The PvP is basically the real “end game” especially when you consider how minuscule the depth of Raid/Gym combat is (side note imo they should rework dodging or something, I seriously wish that branch of the game entailed more skill as it would keep player interest longer without being so boring). The funds they make from PvP might not be as direct as Raids/Incubators, but they definitely do keep player engagement overall higher because of PvP and the hardcore PvPers likely do spend money for Raids to get what they need, especially if you play Masters League and need XL candy. Why do you think Niantic does asinine stuff like giving Registeel, a Pokémon already at the top of the sims, Zap Cannon? It’s because they know PvPers will spend money on raid passes to get them and to get good IVs and XL candy for UL and so on. Same principle goes for incubators, you don’t think hatched rare Pokémon like Mandibuzz or Lucario (etc) are good in PvP? Finally, engagement itself is something these companies care tremendously about. Regardless of what you are doing in game they want you playing their game and keeping playing it as long as possible. Engaged players are more likely to spend. PvP is more or less the hardcore end game PoGo has and this drives engagement. I just don’t think it’s reasonable to say PvP isn’t financially meaningful to Niantic.
There are always options i use shadow ampharos, poliwrath and skelderidge in the ultra league. No level 50 pokemon, no legendarys. And ive been getting really goods sets!
I knew it! every time I was on a streak I tried to switch pokemons when I started loosing and magically encounter the perfect teams that DESTROYED mine. Absolutly insane how perfect the counters were. Lead grass type vs gastrodon when grass types were not meta at all perfect switches, and perfect lag to loose cpm.
To put in some spice into your theory building. My girlfriend and I have been playing for 1.5 years as of now and she does exactly what you mentioned, spending money on raid passes, special boxes, incubators, you name it. I play free to play. She does not like GBL at all and thus I get to play her sets. I regularly achieve the same ranks with both accounts (expert) using the very same pokemon (since I feel comfortable using a certain team at a time). While I have ca. 52% win rate she has a 60% win rate. Thus, using her account I am able to achieve expert far sooner. Same player and same skill set (me), same pokemon/same team but one free to play account and one spending money. I also think the sample size of 2000+ battles per account suffices to conclude that there is some form of monetory variable into GBL matchmaking. Not only are you able to get a headstart on some leagues (Ultra and Master league) using money but arguable and perceivably it does favour her account significantly. So maybe this is the missing link why some people truly face a stricter matchmaking system than others. And since we cannot include monetary spending into our equation (which would be way too complicated) we cannot definitely conclude that there is/isn´t a matchmaking system. Would love to see the amount of money spent by top GBL players and their ranks retrospectively.
It's the same for spoofers. When I was spending 100$ a week I was not flagged for account activity for years. I stopped grinding legendry's and incubators and about 6 months my account flags started poping up. If you bribe them they let you do whatever, f2p your nothing and get the short end of the stick.
I remember when people denied SBMM wasnt real in Call of duty and people used arguments like yours. Now the studio acknowledged its real. How long until Niantic acknowledges it? I have about the same win rate as you. Knowing theres an algorithm has helped me anticipate movesets so many times because its based on move sets.
Hey Dan this might be one of your best non game/team videos yet. I think the only issue I run into is there are absolutely walls you need to break through however they are player created not Niantic created (you get tired of hard countered so you make an odd team comp but youre playing against others who are doing the same which just leads to chaos) Great vid as always
I disagree to some extent about them not caring about GBL, 99.9% of my stardust goes into GBL mons, trying to keep up with the meta/trying new teams etc. which in turn makes me play more, as i need that sweet sweet stardust to keep up with the curve (aswell as always looking for that perfect IV mon instead of trading for pointless non meta hundos). And what i mean by that is for example a non pvp’r may look at a pigeotto (for example purposes) and be like meh, not relevant, as for a pvper they will keep hunting for that perfect iv for ultra AND great league, and maybe a few variants of move-sets ANDTHEN hunt and trade for XLs, keeps their game time up which they use for investors and advertisers etc etc. Gives Content creators content which people watch and interact in turn makes more people interested and invested in the game (they spend and put time in the game) And last point, why do they every season (bar a couple) have they done such drastic moveset changes and stat changes that only affect GBL/PVP that drastically flips the meta to the point people have to spend all their stardust on a dumb pokemon that everyone slept on since their release. Love the vid, just had to nickpick on that one point ♥️
I'm an engineer and medical researcher and I think if you ever retire from your current job, you'd make an amazing teacher or professor of mathematics. Beautifully explained, and why I love your content
Agreed - well said. GBL can feel frustrating at times, but it can also feel very rewarding other times. I do believe there is some kind of algorithm, even at lower ranks below Ace, but I also believe it's all about your skill level, team comp, and built-up GBL mons that factor into your wins and losses.
Let's not forget about the cheaters with discord. If Dan knew the players entire team before the fight starts.....thats a HUGE advantage. Knowledge is power.
The guys in the pvp fight club that bring multiple accounts up to legend with 60%+ win rates under 300 battles make it super difficult for me to believe theres a w/l algorithm. The knowledge they, and leaderboard players, have is what makes the difference every time.
@@301nav i swear i tank and then all my matchups are super effective, i could be wrong, but it happens so often after loosing 5 str8, never happens when i win 5 str8, usually goes the other way. It ends up being soo easy to win 5 in a row if i lose 5 to start, more people then just i tank, i should face other tankers, but i some how never face anyone with a team capable of beating my team after i tank? Seems sus :p but i could be wrong
Tbh, I didn't even think about an algorithm existing like that. You're probably on to something with that chart. Been grinding in GBL to hit level 44, and eventhough PvP isn't my bag I've noticed a significant improvement from all the practice. It's hard not to get discouraged when you keep getting rocked over and over, but if you try to learn from those losses it helps out dramatically with decision making down the line. Having the right stats for the league you're in makes a big difference!
I have had moments in the past where I constantly felt like there was a hard-count algorithm, but then I had a crispy 20 win streak one day on a go battle weekend which cured my thought of that haha
People forget that there is (usually) someone on the other side who wants to defeat you. The higher you climb, the better prepared your opponents are. My stats: Wins: 3,931 Battles: 7,438 = 52.85% Longest streak: 15. Never played a full season and mostly just played Great League. I missed a few seasons and have been active again since the end of the 19th season. Wish everyone good luck for the current season.
Dear Dan, if we wanna model the events of the matchmaking in Pokemon Go with a Gaussian curve, we should first know if the data follow a Normal law. I think it’s not the case here because some people get hardcountered on more than 20-25% of their battles. Why it couldn’t be a uniform law or even a law represented by a kind of reverse Gaussian curve for exemple ? Sorry but as a scientist too, I disagree with this kind of modeling.
All I know is that I went from consistently reaching lv20 & getting matched with Ace level trainers by end of the season, to suddenly being hard countered regardless of my team when the season changed early in 2023 I think it was. 8 weeks of total frustration losing up to 12 or 13 matches in a row because it didn't matter what I picked, the opponents team seemed tailored to counter mine ie. I got desperate & distinctly remember running a random mew in my team- a Pokémon I'd never played gbl with before... opponent I was matched with just happened to have a Giratina, a Pokémon I'd not seen in any of my match ups before or since. It was enough to totally destroy my enjoyment of GBL. I've not got higher than rank 15 I don't think since, despite whatever nerf my account had being gone after that single season, the negative associations seem to have stuck. I remember enjoying GBL, so occasionally I do try & play again, but ultimately end up having to force myself to play a single match of anything outside of little cup (the only league I didn't play when hard countered was little cup, so it's the cup I don't have super negative feelings associated with now I guess). My win rate last season was 59.88% (mostly just played little cup, electric cup & a little bit of master league) & I'm sitting at 75% this season but I've only done 28 battles to date, so that is not a surprise, the next 20 or so battles (if I can force myself to do them) will likely see that rate drop significantly into the 50% range I imagine. Long story short, I now know there is some sort of algorithm at play in GBL as I'm not convinced someone can go from consistently reaching lv 20 to struggling to reach lv 5 overnight without that sort of interference/over correction being present. Most likely the purpose is indeed to keep most players around a 50% win rate, as that makes the most sense- it keeps people playing GBL, incentivises people to go out & grind for better IVs, dust & candy to improve their teams & rank, which in turn makes Niantic money. I assume there would be built in criteria that allows players to essentially increase or bypass the 50% limit as they increase in skill level. What that looks like or how it functions is will above my knowledge level of such things lol.
I definitely agree with this. A few seasons back I was grinding GBL pretty hard and I got up to expert, but then I didn't really have the pokemon to compete in the ultra/master leagues and specialty cups so I couldn't make it past there. Now I have a lot more strong pokemon, but I don't count as much anymore and I haven't learned a lot of new matchups and I don't get past veteran. Even with an algorithm, it still comes down to skills.
What skill does it take to beat being hard countered by a team that no sane person would play? There's some skill involved, but your fallacy is that it's ALL SKILL and NO ALGORITHM. So your argument is useless.
@@ulbooleroelegante5144 Yes, so why are there still people making it a skill issue? If you get hard countered on the lead and then the swap, all the skill in the world would only give someone a minimal chance of winning. GBL takes skill and the right pokemon but even if you have that, there are still UNWINNABLE matches, quite frequently.
Thank you thank you thank you THANK YOU ❤️❤️❤️ I read something interesting somewhere on Reddit, from someone who absolutely not believed you are automatically hard countered if you win too much. There is, according to him, something some games use (not just Pokémon GO) that can actually make it more “swingy” without having any hard countering algorithm in play. Without claiming to fully understand what he meant I think it had to do with your streak, if your climbing within your ELO range or falling. This can make you believe there is some evil algorithm in play that make you play against nightmare opponents. But I’d like to stress, he specifically said that the game is NOT taking into account what teams you’re playing, it just takes into account how well you’re performing at the moment. And the result is that you end up within an ELO range that suits your skill level. Personally I think people underestimate how often you would naturally (100% randomly) get hard countered. Also, I think many people overestimate the problem with unfavorable matchups. At their skill level it might be almost impossible to win if the matchup is too unfavorable, but a skilled player would have no problems.
Let me say this first. Dan is an amazing battler and teacher bar none. If you want to learn, you watch Dan. However, I do believe there are multiple algorithms. I also believe in the basis. With that said, Niantic does make money from gbl. Folks raid and grind for pvp.
Thank you for this video. Feels very easy to fall into the idea that there is an algorithm that controls the game. As someone that does not have a high ELO I do wonder if there is something that is always bringing me back towards 50%. Defining skills, counting and understanding moves is a big help. Your channel is a huge help
Look up EOMM, engagement optimized match making. Lots of games use it to keep people hooked, especially competitive and gacha games. It really wouldn't surprise me if there was an algorithm like that in place. An ex Riot employee, developer League of Legends, explained that their matchmaking algorithm was designed to keep people playing yet entertained. If they let people start winning too much, rather it be luck or genuine skill, people will reach their goal too quickly and get bored. If they lose to much they get frustrated and quit. That's where EOMM helps. It was first used by casinos but now many games use it to keep players hooked.
I’m not good enough at the game to worry about how the algorithm works. I lose/throw to many games when I have neutral/positive matchups that I need to master the game mechanics. In short, it’s not that I’m bad, it’s that everyone else is too stinking good!
I really differentiate on my game play and play-style based on what team I build. There's matches I win when I should have lost just based on a single tap difference that I know my pokemon can accomplish. I've won so many matches with maybe 1-10 health. It's really about knowing your team and specific pokemons limits. Conversely I've won a many hard counters just because the other person made that one tap mistake, which gave me an opportunity to play it perfect for the win. Sometimes it just all comes down to a single tap.
7:44 Thats in accurate: on the surface this argument might seem very logical. yet if you stop and think deeper, you realize that building Teams for GBL with XL Monst to be more specific, you drain your Stardust resource so much, that you are pushed to do these tasks like egg hatching raiding and go outside. By simply Only doing Battles you wont keep up with the rising Stardust cost as new mons get into the meta etc. And dont Forgett, Master League is Raid Mons League aka. Legendarys aka. a lot of Stardust investments and Candys. For the arguments sake: Ppl at the highest of leader boards understand to force plays the opponent Has to react perfectly to keep their lead even if the matchup is in the favor of the opponent. ( same in chess, there its called '' Only Moves '' ) and as you know, some times you just can not win. :) you bet your ass i dived into the abyss for that ! x_DD
Here's the problem... You are 100% correct that this games matches players based on their elo. Almost every competitive ranked games does this nowadays so that's no question. But I think it's almost undeniable that you are not just solely matching up against players in your elo at random. There's still an algorithm to keep you at 50% win rate. For example I ran you team of skarm, gligar, lanturn. Went 5-0 first set, then literally the next 5 battles in a row were stunfisk lead trevanant and whishcash in the back. Almost never have run into this exact team but after 5-0, faced this team comp 5 times in a row!! That is absolutely no coincidence and cannot be blamed on "just matching people in my elo". There is 100% an algorithm. Doesn't matter what team you run. If you go 5-0 or even 4-1, you will absolutely face hard counter teams next set. Doesn't mean the games are unwinnable but they are going to be extremely hard.
The algo is real; no doubt….. but if you’re lucky enough to read this… I figured this out “If you come across a hard counter match and flip it”, the next battle will not be hard counter… try it easier said than done
14:43 I remember some time ago watching his streams and he pretty much always threw on bad timing, but now when I watch his stream, he plays like a pretty good player. People blaming the algorithm just need to understand that if they're running mons with peetty much a 50% win rate and a 500 br, they're gonna usually get a 50% win rate even if they play pretty bad. But, if you have like a 55% or 60%, that means, that you're actually good
It does make financial sense to keep people fighting for GBL because most people think they need certain meta pokemon to win. So when they lose, they think if they go out and get dust and do raids, they can get better gbl pokemon. Theres two sides to every story. Gotta think outside the box also homie.
I feel like if people lose a lot because of getting hard countered, they’re more likely to stop playing the game altogether instead of putting in time, effort, and money into something that isn’t fun for them
Maybe a break will help. Hope to see more of your content after thr new season starts. I am actually enjoying raiding and collecting XL candies. For example: this dragon event, I collected 290xl Lanturn candies. Now I have a ULTRA league lanturn😅. Still need Kommo and artibax dragon candies.
I think it’s interesting to have a game, where there is no financial gain for you as the player, to be this polarizing. It’s a free game and it’s your choice to spend money on it if you want. But people get so mad, angry, and upset about so much with it. Why? How much money, coins, or dust do you get for hitting legend? If you start treating a game like a job, that’s when this conversation comes into play I feel. My ultimate response to the “is there an algorithm question” is who cares? Dan is right that if you want to hit legend, just like anything else, it takes time and desire to learn the in’s and out. Granted some people are just naturally able to pick this up but when you listen to the top players talk about the math, timing, percentages, ask yourself (before blaming the algorithm) if you knew all that. I play for fun and watch these videos because I want to learn more and enjoy the game.
I am a month into the game. I caught 40 matches at the end of last season, ended 19w 21l. Thought, huh, thats cool. Almost 50%. I'm now 280 matches into this season, and ended tonights session at exactly 140 wins 140 losses. 😅 I definitely know my team is not the strongest so im trying to focus on the other mechanics I can control like learning timings and the matchups.
I've been looking forward to this. By any chance, would you be willing to do an algorithm test? Once you hit legend, try a team for an entire set to see what kind of leads and teams you see, then in another set, try 5 different teams to see what kinds of teams you see. It's definitely confirmation bias, but I honestly want to know your reactions and opinions on the magical "I've never seen this ever!" Pokemon that appear in that ELO range. Like, I believe in the algo, but not as hardcore. If I did, well, shucks, I feel bad for ALL the Poliwrath, Giratina and Dragonite leads in the Ultra League this week because 75% of my opponents have been getting hard countered by my G-Weezing lead. And that's all that it is -- I built my team, invested into the moves and power ups, had the resources, and decided, "Eff it, I'm NOT losing to Poliwrath, Giratina, Dragonite and non-Future Sight Cresselia." That mindset is what *I* could control and built around G-Weezing to corebreak the so-called popular teams. Team: G-Weezing, Virizion, Jellicent. I'm not letting myself lose to Poliwrath for all the hype and buffs it got. I only ever lose to flyers in the back, especially Zard and Mandibuzz when I don't have alignment.
I think that the answer is that it exists, but that it isn't as complicated as some have theorized. I think that it most likely just gives you a neutral or bad lead and doesn't go into the Pokemon in the back. You either work through the bad lead with skill or team construction and climb, or you don't work through i and you don't climb.
Someone said, “It's not 100% random I believe.” No, not all of this is completely random. Let us say your ELO is 2200 so the algorithm chooses a set of those near that ELO to pair you with. Then it randomly chooses one person for you to battle with within that set. That is the random part, but the teams you chose are not random (unless you let Pokemon choose your teams, and do not do that). Think about it, all (most) of those in that range chose their teams, they know what to use, researched them, or use teams he suggests. Thus, to encounter teams that are good (that might counter you) should be expected and not the other way around. So, the fact you win or lose a battle (50% probability), then the fact that win rate does tend towards a 50% rate within a range of your own ELO over time, who are all using similar teams, proves that there is no “bad” algorithm. If one could not choose their own teams but had to let Pokemon make the “random” team before you fight, then make sure you get rid of all your crappy Pokemon around or under 1500 CP. This is one algorithm they use that I do not understand. You could have an Altaria with 2 moves, but it chose the one with one move, etc. Who knows what our win rates would be then.
So yep. The algorithm exists....how else will they "balance" out a game based on typing strengths and weaknesses and rps... That said, skill can get you passed these bad matchups, but it isnt false to say the algo is keeping you at 50%, because that is exactly what it tries to do...but it isnt a blame point of not reaching a rank.. Making this system also means people will want to go out and get better pokemon so i do not agree with you saying it wouldnt be beneficial to them, because it is... The issue is alot of people deny its existence but its literally right there in front of us when you go non meta and encounter pokemon that are obscure yet counter your team...is it trying to keep you at 50%, in essence yes, but skill can help you get past this, though not always
A part of me accepts what you're saying. I know and understand statistics as well. Yet...I feel like I've been playing this game on hard mode. Today my Talonflame led into a 1: Lanturn. 2: Lanturn. 3: Swampert. 4: Dragonair. 5: Whiscash. So then I swapped to my team with a Serperior lead. That one led into: 1: Frosslass. 2. Talonflame. 3. Talonflame. 4: Skarmory, for the fifth set I decided to swap back to my Talonflame lead. Guess what? I led into: Shadow Swampert. Entire day was like this.
A lot of the disagreers use annecdotes of being hard-countered on the lead, but that shouldn't mean you lose automatically. If you swap and they hard-counter swap, you may lose the 1v1 but you should try to generate some advantage in the swap. Force them to use shields, leave with health you can get farm off of. Is your team so rigid that you don't have any play out of bad matchups? That means you are using a bad team.
I mean the way I make teams, I wouldn't be surprised if I get hard countered more than average because I stick with a team comp that is too common and being hard countered. Adapting to where the meta is for your elo seems pretty important, or like, if people get wise to a team that did too well yesterday. I only play the gimmick metas and they are also more prone to RPS, but I love me some gimmicks. Really what holds me back is I need the coaching because I need to learn counting rather than believing I can just feel it out.
I once faced a team like this in the ML, Dialga lead, Kyogre and ho oh in tbe back, I choose Zekrom as my lead as my backline struggles against metagross or solgaleo( lugia as my safe swap and a shundo xerneas as my closer), during that match I managed to get 2 shields from my opponent with lugia against their kyogre, but ended up losing anyway causa Ho oh shut down my xerneas
My best run came during last season’s Halloween Cup. Highest ELO 2992. Team was lead Toxapex, Carbink and SB/AA Mandibuzz. Saw numerous lead Dragalgae, Palossand anywhere and Wormadam in the back during the 2900s. Was it algorithm, ELO-range meta or just hard coincidence?
I consistently get around a 75% win rate each season using ABC teams with usually at least one big corebreaker to the main meta allowing me to flip those "getting algorithm'd" matches with either shield or energy advantage because the opponent always fights for switch to keep what they believe to be ideal alignment. It doesn't always work but around 2/3 of the time so I keep with it
I’m trying to work on committing to a team to get as best as I can with it for a climb. It’s tough though when the hard counter games stack up. This season I’m going to focus on ignoring it and try to hit legend for the first time. I got as high as 2980 last season 🥴
the first time I got Rank 5 in Hearthstone it was a major grind and then so was Legend. It takes time, patience, and talent/skill in varying amounts for different people. My brother reached his first Legend quite some time before I did. He dedicated more time to learning and playing and also had more of a knack for it than me.
About the statistics at 7:55 , I wonder about the effect of teambuilding vs the meta. I believe it is easy to build a "bad" team that is countered 60% of the time or more (for example running bastio in a counter meta), and not 50% like the bell curve you show. Since you are an exceptional team builder, it's easier for you to build a team that reaches the 50% mark. So if someone is bad at choosing their team they must compensate with more skill to reach the percentages you talk about in the bell curve. I have bad eye-hand coordination and often lose focus and clarity during play because I'm easily excited; so I wanted to compensate by being extremely careful of teambuilding against the meta. Do you agree with this view?
I definitely feel the "algorithm hates me" in the lower ranks and i think thats because more people in that elo range. Last season, i had my highest elo at 2714. One good set from first-time expert, but i can guarantee i started losing because the players i was playing were not hard countering, but their timing was on point, and energy management was on point, etc. Lost many games because they got 1 last charge move off.
in recent hisui cup after i win 4/5, then 2 match basti lead vs gastrodon, change to gastrodon lead vs driftloon, change again to toxicroak lead vs gastrodon, then have 0/5, 1/5, 3/5, 0/5 again and so on
