Imagine Twenty One Pilots! Against the Disco I've found the oops emote can rely mess with the opponent when they make a misplay, and if you follow it up by spamming 'well played' there's a higher chance of them roping by accident. It's not BM. It's psychological warfare.
Wow... this video was surprisingly cool and interesting. Everybody can see that data, I am sure, and it is nothing that we didn't already know, but you explained the situation very clearly, and I like that. Would love to see more content like this.
He/she/whatever you might call a piece of toast reminds me of Vsauce in the way that they both make you learn something before you even realize it. Such a cool way to present things so that everyone can understand.
No, if it summons a random basic totem it will be a 3-4 or a 4-3. If it had a 1+health it would be too overpowered for a 3 mana card (Not taking account in tank, heal and spelldamage, that is a huge plus for Tuskarr) The totems also have synergy Thing From Below, Thunder Bluff... and many more cards. Even the spellpower totem have synergy with a lot of cards. So its nowhere near a Razorfen Hunter.
It would be more apt to compare it to Fencing Coach--Fencing Coach has the exact same effect with one less attack. I'm not sure about buffs to the body, though.
It has a lot of synergy, which makes me think the card is fine, but you can't call it a 3/4 or 4/3. The issue with 0 attack minions is that they don't really do anything. The paladin button is generally better for a reason, even if the totems have the same raw stats + an effect.
I think the biggest problem that tuskarr had was that it limited design space for better totems. The fact that they printed totem golem and tuskarr in the same expansion shows that all too well. Making better totems makes it better making shaman far more of a dice roll for shaman to win. If they didn't print the golem this problem still stands cus they really couldn't make better ones later.
Thank you! It limited design space for totems by A LOT. As a designer you would be scared to make another 2/3/4 mana totem because then tuskar would be OP.
This is the true difference between Toast and Krip. Toast presents the hard data, plus the nuances. Krip does a 5 minute whine salt fest about how the card is broken, then a 15-20m game play video of him getting stomped, or doing the stomping, by said card. I'm a simple man, the later doesnt amuse me.
In my opinion, and this might just be me, the true difference between Toast and Kripp is that they're completely different people born in completely different places to completely different parents on completely different days who do completely different things, except both of them make youtube videos sometimes and those videos are often about Hearthstone.
Well it would be pretty pointless if they both did the same thing.And obviously a lot of people like what Kripp does, so no point for him to change anything. Personally, I like both, the "mindless" entertainment from Kripp and the more analytical stuff from Toast. There's a place for everyone ;)
Probably in this order; 1.Ysera Awakens;for easy lethal (requires no minion) 2.Nightmare;for lethal again 3.Dream;for a huge tempo swing 4.Emerald Drake;It's just a better creature than Laughing Sister 5.Laughing Sister;a really weak 3/5 minion,with a somewhat useless text Keep in mind,that Ysera is a late game minion,where reaching lethal is the goal (except in some cases). So yeah,that's just my intiution.
Almost certainly true. The only thing I would be the least bit uncertain of is if Nightmare or Dream is the better card, considering you quite often play Ysera on an empty board, sometimes making it a dead card.
Imo swap Nightmare and Drake, Ysera is played in decks hat usually wins with value and not burst, and drake is very cost efficent. That said I think it s still close, the only bad one is laughing sister
only during the first few weeks of the standard format could the vitality totem be summoned by it. Otherwise it cannot be summoned by tuskar totemic. This is for the same reason that gvg cards cannot be discovered from discover effects.
You really well and carefully introduced all the phases of the research and how you got all these percentages, which is really important when doing these ginda videos. This video was relly interesting and pleasent to watch. I want more videos like this!
Does every Paladin has Truesilver at turn 4? Does every Hunter has CoW on turn 8? Does every shaman plays Thing from Below before turn 5? Does every hunter has Fire Bat on 1 and Highmane on 6? Does every Warrior has Fiery War Axe on the starting hand? Does every mage has Frostbolt on the starting hand? Does every Paladin has Tirion on 8? Does every Druid has Living Roots on turn 1 followed by Wrath on turn 2? Does every Rogue has backstab on turn 1 or SI Agent on turn 2/3? Does every priest comes with a fucked up curve and do nothing until turn 4?
People now praise Blizzard for nerfing the card, but I find myself even more salty when I see this because Blizzard, even while knowing these stats let the card be for so long when all you need is like 2 weeks statistics to show the incredible dominance of this stupid card. It's just a testament to how poorly they are doing their job.
Over balancing can be a problem too. There is merit to letting "overpowered" decks run wild and letting players find natural counters to those decks. That's how the metagame evolves, and it would be a much more boring game if blizzard constantly forced the meta to align with their vision by frequently nerfing cards.
I think one of the contributing reasons for a higher winrate with Tuskarr's non-basic drops is that a lot of decks rely on these drops from him. After Tuskarr's buff, it's likely that the percentages for the basic totems will go up a small amount because the decks that would use Tuskarr will take into account that he only summons basic totems
I think you forgot about 1 more totem, which heals hero on 4 health at the end of his turn. (Sorry, I don't remember its correct name). Totem is 0/3, and it's rare card
I really liked this video. It reminds me of Toast's old infographics that made us all fall in love with him in the first place. I miss all the charts and graphs he'd make after tournaments.
Vitality totem is in GVG, which is not viable in standard, Toast mentioned those statistics were from standard games, where vitality totem can not be summoned.
You can't say 10% increase, that's not true, it's 10 points increase. Check ur maths/stats. The idea of the video is good but you can't compare percent and say the difference is a percent, thats just not true.
I'm glad at least someone noticed that. He keeps making the same mistake over and over again! Hey people, please educate yourselves about the difference between percentages and percentage points. Those may sound the same, but they actually mean two different things.
If people are not educated and keep on making the same mistake, then there is no difference in the message as people will interpret the message correctly using the wrong verbiage. For those that know the correct verbiage, the message will still be interpreted correctly as they now the mistake that is being conveyed.
The nerf also affects design space. Imagine the devs trying to make a huge powerful totem that costs above 5 mana. The old Tuskarr Totemic could summon that and then...
Yup you should make more videos like these and cool name for the segment could be Toast Crumbs . Since you will be crunching numbers and stats of cards in hearthstone.
I think that is important to note that a lot of the time Tuskarr was run solely for the posibility of summoning the non-basic totems since that means a big early advantage. With the nerf it's probably going to be used mostly in decks with totem synergy, which means that the winrate from each basic totem should probably go up quite a bit, since right now the higher winrate from these decks is getting diluted by all the other decks that run the card.
Wrath of Air Totem having the lowest win rate among the 4 basic totems was the most surprising thing for me out of these stats. You'd think with how common Spirit Claws and Maelstrom Portal are in Shaman decks that it would be the most likely of the four basics to have a positive impact on the win rate for the player playing the Tuskarr. There's certainly uses for the others, and in Midrange Shaman, specifically in a deck running Totemic Mights and Primal Fusions, the Vitality Totem can put in a ton of work healing a board of buffed totems, but I'd still think that spell power is the most common synergy to be able to actually utilize and would've expected that to be reflected in these stats.
Great Video toast ! I have some other stats in mind. I think Prince Malchezaar usually summons more crappy legendaries than useful ones. Also, for some reason, when he appears after the mulligan, he throws 3, 4, or 5 cards in your deck. I have no idea why not just 5......Another interesting stat is Barnes: i feel he summons Bishop a little too often. It could be bias, so only the stats can clear it up.
Great vid Toast, your stats breakdown was great. Would also be good to baseline winrate for Shaman with Tuskarr in deck for comparison. If it is also ~46%, then the 46% for the 4 basic totems does not represent a decrease in power - if it is more like ~55%, then obviously it does.
I suppose one factor is that people play Tuskar Totemic with the chance for an amazing totem in mind. This means that some of the low winrate for the basic totems could be attributed to people making calculated risks and hoping for a stronger totem. Now that players know that it will only get a basic totem, people will not take those risks, and might try some other tactic to comeback (that presumably has a lower chance that old Tuskar Totemic, but still has a chance to recover). For example, suppose you have two 3 drops in hand. You might choose the one other than Tuskar Totemic when you are behind (rather than hope for a great totem). This might not be enough to make Tuskar Totemic *good*, but will probably make the basic totems not as bad as they seem.
Well put together analysis of the data, nice job. Please do more of these :) Yogg saron would be an obvious choice: How many spells does he cast on average, what amount gives the best winrate, how often does he kill himself and after how many spells?
Stats I am interested in are: 1. On what turn is thing from below played the most 2. how many turns is thing from below in hand (average) 3. how many cards does midrange/aggro shaman have in the hand on turn 5-7 on average 4. Raving Idol, highest winrate spell picks. 5. Darnassus Aspirant AVG turns survived if played on Turn2 6. Wild Growth on Turn 1-2 vs. no Wild Growth until turn 4 winrate 7. Druid T1 Heal/game average 8. Moonglade outcomes, best winrates 9. Ancient of War Turn7 Winrates 10. Kings Elekk Releav Wins % 11. Call of the Wild Winrate if played turn 10+ 12. Ivory Knight winrates vs. similiar decks without it 13. Swashburglar statistics, everything 14. Sap after turn5 winrates 15. Dark Peddler Discover - best picks (winrate) 16. Lord Jaraxxus Winrate (after using) 17. Barnes overall winrate 18. Winrate overall if emperor used on turn6 19. Winrate when Deathwing was played 20. Arcane Giant: How many turns in the hand (avg) / played on what turn (avg)
One thing to consider when looking at these statistics is if the information was collected after thunderbluff valiant and thing from below came into the meta
What would be really interesting to know is the chance of rolling a non-basic totem in the 50,000 sample you have. Because to my real-world experience, it's not just 1 out of 7 (unless I am the only one having really bad luck)
It's worth noting that some of those games lost with basic totems will have been against the Shamans who got Totem Golem out on curve. The win rates of the basic totems I imagine might be 1%/2% higher, though obviously it's not a hugely significant difference.
you also gotta keep in the mind that non-totem based shaman decks were playing tuskar, so with only totem-specific decks playing it it will likely increase winrates
I really liked the video, the only thing I think was missing was the total average win rate, considering all 7 possible totems (exactly how the card is working right now). Aside from that, excelent video. And I would like to see more. :D
Hi Toast, awesome video, please keep them coming. Not sure if possible, but the next one should be about Yogg, since he's also being nerffed and there are claims that summoning him is an insta-win. Interesting things to know about: - Avg number of spells casted. - Win rate when summoned. - How many times he was silenced, removed o transformed.
the reason why the basic totems have sutch a low win rate is, cuz ppl played TT in every deck, without having synergy with basic totems, which means, that if you rolled one it was a dead minion on the baord. after the nerf only totem decks will play him, which means that they can do something with the totem that comes out of it
The reason why the basic totems rolls result in below 50% win-rate is likely because of the shaman mirror - if your opponent has a better Tuskarr roll that you, you most likely lose the game. Therefore this does not necessarily means Tuskarr will be below 50% after the change.
