Here Is Why You Won't See a Soft Landing | Alfonso Peccatiello

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On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Fading The Soft Landing Narrative".
As CPI printed at 8.5%, market participants felt relief as many believe these are the early signs of inflation beginning to subside. On the back of a better than expected inflation report, markets began rallying as the market prices in a soft landing. Alfonso walks through exactly why markets rallied on the better than expected CPI report and if this is really just a bear market rally trap. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!
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Subscribe To The Macro Compass: themacrocompass.substack.com/
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Referenced In The Show:
Fading The Soft Landing Narrative: themacrocompass.substack.com/p/fading-soft-landing#details
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Timestamps:
00:00 Fading The Soft Landing Narrative
01:52 The Labour Market
04:57 The CPI Report
12:39 Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Опубликовано:

12 авг 2022

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Комментарии : 175

@franciscogonzalez6111 2 года назад

My friend, you are doing a fantastic job. I can see tremendous growth to the channel with the content you are putting out. Kudos to you and the channel

@beyzaaknar6732 2 года назад

Thank you for the update AMZTY2 is done right, and waiting is part of the process,

@easyrent8110 2 года назад

Alf is a realistic guy and knows his stuff , thank you for sharing your knowledge . 👍👍👍

@m-ariaa-tashi2981 2 года назад

New week up as many FOMO in. But the AMZTY2 story isn’t over yet. The only strat that works under all circumstances is DCA all the time with solid, large companies (not hyped ones).

@lavague7648 2 года назад

I love his analysis. Always well documented and informed. This is the professional approach i was looking for. Thanks so much Alf. I realised that it is time for bonds few months ago. I did some placements. I am afraid that this window will not stay open for long. Any info about bonds is highly welcomed. Also if european, does it make sense to hold any investements in us stocks till we will see the devaluation of usd compared to euro? Again thanks so much.

@stevek3984 2 года назад

Thanks Alfonso - very helpful analysis of the post CPI landscape.

@cizimyaparkenmutluyum3628 2 года назад

We have been on a recession since the beginning of 2022, but big media and governments all over the world didn’t want to admit it. We need to be wise and use our brains. Knowledge is power and I’d like all the family to be powerful! Just purchased some AMZTY2 Thanks for keeping us informed during this times of doubt?

@at9048 2 года назад

Well UK & many EU countries are admitting we are in a recession. On the other hand US continues to live in denial and lie to its citizens and the 🌎.

@georgemoller2206 2 года назад

Alfonso has really great and insightful video. Always a pleasure to listen and get his take.

@filosedillo4785 2 года назад

Alf, Thank you for your good work and willingness to genuinely help educate investors. It's refreshing to listen to your unbiased and independent analysis. Thank you for sharing your practical market experience. I spent 27 years macro trading, selling and managing assets for four investment banks. I've learned to shun all sell side mkt research and strategy. I'm so grateful I can leverage your practical and analytical trading and asset management experience. You are a refreshing blessing.

@gabrielasoppelsa1836 2 года назад

I don't know whether we will have a soft or hard landing, but constructing the hard landing argument also on the fact that the sector that added more jobs in the time frame June -July is Govt is not strong. As per BLS "Employment in government rose by 57,000 in July but is below its February 2020 level by 597,000, or 2.6 percent. Over the month, employment increased by 37,000 in local government, mostly in education (+27,000)". The other point you make is that the 528K new jobs added to the economy in July, include double counting as per multiple job holders which have increased by ~90k in July. However, multiple jobholders as % of total employed has fluctuated in the range of 4.6%-4.8% since March, with June and July at 4.8%. You might be right we will have a hard landing but the argument needs to be based on stronger evidence. If I am wrong please help me since this is key

@Kendoom93 2 года назад

Best and most plausible explanation about the "Soft Landing - Expectations" that I've heard so far

@jredubr 2 года назад

Fantastic video as always, Alf!

@yowh0dis897 2 года назад

read it yesterday, loved it. thank you ALF.

@kaangurlek9489 2 года назад

Excellent content. I used the last dip to stock up, buying AMZTY2 now its cheap, can't miss the presale.

@brettwolter4533 2 года назад

most underrated financial channel on youtube. fantastic analysis. keep up the great work!

@LifeCoach44 2 года назад

Hey Alf, didn’t you close out your flattener trade yesterday?

@jamesrobertson504 2 года назад

Agree that probability of soft landing is low. On the point of job creation being in government, the stimulus to state and local government improved budgets greatly so they could hire. Anecdotally, I've heard from friends in County government that positions that had been open as people left to go to better jobs were all filled this year. In bad times, I've been told that those positions are left open to meet the budget. However, I wonder how long this growth in government jobs will last if the economy goes into recession and tax revenues fall.

@douglasnast6803 2 года назад

Thanks Alf. You suggest that the rally is motivated by a belief in a soft landing. You define soft landing as a slowdown in inflation while growth holds up pretty well. But in reality, isn't the recent risk-on sentiment motivated by a belief in a sharp recession that kills inflation followed by a relatively quick Fed-driven recovery? Is your thesis that a sharp recession cannot destroy inflation unless it lasts longer than a reasonable stock market's look-ahead? In such a scenario you would say that this rally makes no sense because it is anticipating something too far on the other side of a pending, inflation killing recession? Is this last bit a fair summary of your position?

@fitnesspoint2006 2 года назад

This is a fake rally and nothing to do with inflation concerns. The previous fake rallies were purly sofbank buying up short term otm calls causing a gamma squeeze. All this "thesis" talk is over- intellectulizing-mental-masturbation to help one confirm their trade bias. It can also be pure manipulation. Nothing more.

@szymonbaranowski8184 2 года назад

How is sharp recession with falling inflation bullish for stocks LOL Stocks are fed with growth & inflation. Each down is headwind for stocks. Except if you play some short relative policy change not yet priced in. And what the hell is FED-recovery? Did FED ever fixed anything in human history? If they go back to easing it's admitting things are bad enough to need it(!) Inflation adds another uncertainty factor what is bad itself. And ppl start to get that good times are past that won't ever come back. Expecting it to go away because c19 won't repeat(heard about other viral stuff they come up?) Is pure propaganda. The only part they like about inflation is pretending it's caused by c19 & some war far away & scaring people into lowering their expectations looking forward. Right now falling inflation is wishful thinking and any disruption in oil production & imports can kick off its meteoric rise to 200$. Imagine inflation then! Imagine it AND recession. The old mantra of the worse it gets the better for stocks because rates will go even lower & make stonks even hotter may backfire in new reality after lockdowns despite all forces pushing radical digitalisation of every piece of material sanity that works. In hocus pokus genjutsu world you can create any fake growth you wish and no recession is possible with system only letting happiness for all & kumbaya...

@sethmiller5414 2 года назад

Good analysis. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

@מאירדרפקינד 2 года назад

Thank you Alf for your insight. I have subscribed to your news-letter as well.

@Buboes1 2 года назад

Thank you Alf! Always love your take on these crazy times.

@somejohndoe3004 2 года назад

Much appreciation for your input Alf.

@fubarbrandon1345 2 года назад

Great information...thank you.

@Michael-qy1jz 2 года назад

The soft landing like a Sledgehammer ! Lol

@PaoloDAgostinoGPlus 2 года назад

Alf, is there any ETF or different "easy" efficient solution to have exposure to high quality, non-cyclical, low beta (tech, utilities, healthcare) growth stocks?

@tyjameson7404 2 года назад

Epic breakdown and video 👍🏼❤️🙏🏽🙌🏼✌️🏆

@williams6081 2 года назад

Alf I watch all your streams. Excellent. How does China play in to the next 6 months?

@giovanniberardi4134 2 года назад

Ciao Alfonso. Orgoglioso di trovare un italiano d'Italia (l'accento non mente) trattare argomenti che sul suolo nazionale vedo alle volte toccare dal solo Seminerio (che comunque fa fatica a non romanzarla troppo). Io studio opzioni, ho un blog teorico su medium, e cerco di mettere su strategie su trimestrali 6/9/12 mesi del miniEs tenendomi lontano dalla scadenza, con vega negativo e delta/gamma neutrali pronto ad adeguarmi all'occorrenza. Cercavo qualcosa che complementasse la lettura dei posizionamenti monetari, dei volumi relativi e della volatilità (nei limiti di quanto questa lettura possa essere possibile) e credo che il tuo lavoro mi sarà di grande aiuto.

@AndrewCB07 2 года назад

Alf can you talk about your time at ING, lessons learned, best and worst trades etc.

@maxmutzke4753 2 года назад

Thanks, as always very interesting

@danielbakker9273 2 года назад

Thanks for the update

@lorettacorrell7640 2 года назад

You give great insight👌🏻👌🏻👌🏻

@villegasphili9351 2 года назад

👇 👇 👇 👇 #expertforexearners

@johnl.7754 2 года назад

Any thoughts on gold?

@cryptofugee5245 2 года назад

Love your work, thank you for the update

@Tobacc0 2 года назад

I think the stock market has fundamentally changed in the last 5 years where P/E's and yields just seemed to have stopped mattering. More foreign money entered US equities in 2021 than the entire 10 years previously so it seems people are more comfortable pushing their chips into the market than putting it anywhere else. It's like modern investors have gone full nihilism and "line go up" bullish. Could also be part of the reason for the rise in the USD aside from the interest rate differential. Market commentators try to explain it away by saying "rate rises are factored in already", etc. but Apple is up 40% from the lows. That's not factoring in anything.

@gabbyastac 2 года назад

Thanks!

@mattanderson6672 2 года назад

Brilliant!!

@rafalg6378 2 года назад

Many thanks great stuff

@victorsperandeo3609 2 года назад

Thank you Alf

@ForwardGuidance 2 года назад

Thank you.

@golftownpro999 2 года назад

Well said

@jp92382 2 года назад

thanks ALF

@ahmettanboga194 2 года назад

I already converted all my ETH to AMZTY2, now I feel like moving all my BTC to ADA as well.

@manyakadam4939 2 года назад

Could you please talk about AMZTY2 it’s very strong and took off in short time thanks

@huseyinhasanoyunda1729 2 года назад

We'll see about that. I don't mind to see the crash. I just hope I'll have a lot of USDT to buy more AMZTY2 live presale.

@guillaumedube342 2 года назад

Tank you Alf

@patriksundquist4407 2 года назад

🙏

@petergribble6260 2 года назад

Thanks

@civanseven4299 2 года назад

Truly love your candidness, I DCAed today again for BTC AMZTY2 and ETH

@herkonudanbirtutam9325 2 года назад

I’m buying AMZTY2 on sale, waiting for BTC to maybe drop again before I add more. Hope to take some Eth profits by Sept proof of stake

@Ccccskskskkdk 2 года назад

How do you feel about AMZTY2 moving into the nft marketplace? Is it still a buy?.

@celebmrk9 2 года назад

Would you prefer the elimination of the EU governance over the European continent in favor the individual nations of yesteryear competing and trading in the open market?

@elonmuskox4305 2 года назад

The Inflation Creation Act by congress means a lot of government debt will have to be monetized by the fed. Like the 1970's we will have periods of disinflation but overall inflation won't come down "hard".

@oscarmike4596 2 года назад

👍

@MAchannel2024 2 года назад

The market keeps going up though

@parag1489 2 года назад

You undersestimate the dollar smile. I do agree with you, but there is long tail of spending to come. This will be a cylical bear.

@victorsperandeo3609 2 года назад

Alf their are no new jobs … you are reading the “ seasonally adjusted “ +526k but the” non seasonally adjusted “ those actually counted you lost -375,000 !!!!!

@desmond5115 2 года назад

Only the king's survived despite the economic inflation. I'm so happy l have been earning $60,000 return from my $7,000 investment every 14days of trading. Thanks Mrs Deborah.

@markbillions4509 2 года назад

This is impressive, I lost almost $80k on trading!!! Please any help with best advises on how to make money on cryptos? I'm open for ideas..

@smithjeff8068 2 года назад

As a beginner who don't understand how crypto trade really works and you really want to make profit from it. I will advise you to first start working with a professional

@jeffrey8352 2 года назад

Consistently investing with proper guidance in quality dividend paying companies is a relatively easy strategy to create wealth. Well I copy trades from daily signals of Mrs Deborah as Recommended.

@kenedy8232 2 года назад

Trading with Mrs Deborah strategy is nothing new to me, I opened a trading at $5,000 dollars and I've scale to $22,000 in 14days.

@amaketitilope1198 2 года назад

Trading with Mrs Deborah strategy is nothing new to me, I opened a trading at $5,000 dollars and I've scale to $22,000 in 14days

@LegalAutomation 2 года назад

Prediction: The soft landing is transitory.

@marcschloss1682 2 года назад

Your macro analysis is clear and well supported by your charts but your stock/bond allocations are all in fiat USD? Why not hold an allocation to a non-correlated asset to fiat USD near multi decade highs like Gold for diversification and risk management? Asking for a friend.

@ibo5359 2 года назад

Myself during this Bear Market only trying to focus on BTC, AMZTY2, ETH, SOL, MATIC. not losing sight of BNB and GALA. 🇨🇦

@elizabethkaanhel3735 2 года назад

I had a great week in stock and crypto market. Earning over $5k from my investment every single week is overwhelming... Thanks🙏 for all you do keep up the good work

@elizabethkaanhel3735 2 года назад

@Mary sible I trade stocks and cryptos using the strategy of Regina Jossie

@svetlanajoao4731 2 года назад

I heard a lot of investing with Mrs Regina Jossie and how good she is, please how safe are the profit?

@brittanykayla5990 2 года назад

I make $5k to $7k weekly trading profit with her trading strategy

@christophersusan5874 2 года назад

@@elizabethkaanhel3735 Please how can I contact Mrs Regina Jossie? I really like what she has done for you, and I also want to benefit from

@elizabethkaanhel3735 2 года назад

@@christophersusan5874 She's active on sapp👇

@avernvrey7422 2 года назад

So what if one person is taking multiple jobs? The jobs are being taken is the point. The pay is being provided, and thus the money spent, increasing velocity. And unless you dismiss all (or most) of the open jobs as fake... you can't fire what you don't hire. And can we have a recession at the same time we have huge demand for labor?

@bhen8402 2 года назад

Why is your head like a tomato...

@ll-sj4xi 2 года назад

I knew that AMZTY2 was ahead of the game, but my mind is officially blown

@flavius22 2 года назад

Hey guys, i can see the future. Instead of making a proffit out of it, im here, recording a video for you.

@aaronsullivan1628 2 года назад

Very few analysts actually address the real issue and the impending consequences. The real issue is that the world had a pantry that was well stocked 40 years ago, and the world ate the pantry. Forty years of the FED loosening by lowering rates to expand credit has come to an end and it ended with a vast money printing that has created a mountain of inflation which has only begun to manifest itself. There is no policy that can fix the world. There will be massive austerity. There will be war, and suffering. There is no escape.

@aleksandrio 2 года назад

So your friend Andreas is wrong? :)

@isaacpalmquist9202 2 года назад

Fade It.

@muazzamkovboy2375 2 года назад

AMZTY2 at less than $1. is like BTC at $100. When AMZTY2 finally blows it's gonna be epic.

@jasongrig 2 года назад

Alf, Oil is falling apart (sanctions are full of loopholes, China will never open up properly, Iran deal is near) so inflation will come down rapidly and the FED will pause in December. Oil will save the FED

@remaxnecla9652 2 года назад

You cant fight the AMZTY2 Fomo haha

@SunFarer 2 года назад

Pain trade is new ATH

@rorrovilla1 2 года назад

Long Bonds - Short Stocks

@thundergacha700 2 года назад

Binance CEO talk about AMZTY2 and hinted let it list on binance, cant imagine the price at 2023!.

@exa0zi88 2 года назад

Fed is very clear, the rate will not over 4%.

@anonymouslyominous3 2 года назад

Thank you for letting us peak over your shoulder

@kanlisimsek7069 2 года назад

AMZTY2 has as much potential as ethereum. But unlike ethereum it has a bigger growth potential.

@beratyldrm7459 2 года назад

DCA AMZTY2 and chill. You'll be obnoxiously rich in less than 5 years. What's 5 years among friends?

@extraclip 2 года назад

Noice

@m.selimabay9822 2 года назад

I’ve been under since day one, (April 2021). When BTC was supposed to go to $100k, It didn’t. I’ve been buying and hodling AMZTY2 and i know my patience will pay off .

@metinikisevenadam9233 2 года назад

May God bless amazon. the AMZTY2 is the game changer

@karskzmasalyolublogublogu3822 2 года назад

Imagine missing the Amazon AMZTY2 on-going presale, HODL STRONG the public sale about to explode

@danielscott1409 2 года назад

I see 10 year yields and inflation expectation charts looking bullish...just saying.

@goktugerturk7832 2 года назад

if AMZTY2 can grow organically like that they will dominate that industry

@prof.puggle1631 2 года назад

Mate, it's a shame that you aren't the FED chair...

@AliAslan-kd4xf 2 года назад

We will rise with AMZTY2 and Matic!!! Just HODL

@fghfghfghfgh7782 2 года назад

You should buy ETH and AMZTY2 if you care about your future

@szymonbaranowski8184 2 года назад

YT comment section died. Better to promote some discord channel. On have external comment section for every link with option of filtering any crap phrase in comments. This is ridiculous. This is the trash world Google is building for you.

@rumeysanurboztepe8441 2 года назад

I didn't like the look of the $ETH chart yesterday and I took profits on everything and bought AMZTY2.

@ilkercantemir8560 2 года назад

MY wife will kill me if if i don't buy AMZTY2 Bagged

@DramaQueen-im8qm 2 года назад

Rename this channel emBEARassed…BEARS getting EMBARRASSED. Here’s a real pro tip: Stocks only go up. We’re still 500 points from new all-time high. It’s not too late to jump on the team for the big win!