Very convincing and logical arguments from prof. Lichtman. Thanks very much. And the subsequent comments shitstorm confirms that his opinions and arguments are simply lethal for intentions and goals of all sorts of trolls.
They’ve doubled the speed of the dialogue so I can’t follow it, but I prefer the professor’s expertise. It’s clear, contrasted with the obvious political motivations of Biden’s opponents.
@@majorchutzpah7265 He has absolutely everything to gain, lmaowhat. He could still pardon his corrupt buddies, he could retaliate against Biden and fulfill the wishes from The Heritage Foundation with that insane Project 2025 agenda. Come on, man, think critically. He needs to be POTUS to escape any accountability whatsoever.
Women of America, never forget who were the ones that did this to you. Pro-choice pro-democracy pro-equality I'm definitely voting straight ticket Democrat. trump is going to feel our wrath coming this November. Biden/ Harris 2024 👍🏽 100%
@@MomentsInTrading it will wear off over the next couple months after the MSM is tired of cycling it around. Americans have awfully short attention spans too and something else will catch their attention.
@@TheOnlyVanceAnother debate hosted by ABCnews is set for September. You think Biden will be sharp then? Btw, Biden can't withdraw because he challenged Trump to both debates.
Debate is just a show.Media focuses too much on age.Trump does not do anything for his country.zhe praizes Pytin.Are you ok media.Media does not do the job.
It was Bush v Gore. It actually came down to the recounts here in Florida and Gore was in fact pushing through legal processes for the recount efforts. That was the year Florida was like the laughing stock of the country. Our ballots at the time were were like punch cards. Unlike current ballots that we color in the designated oval next to the name of our choice, it was necessary to push through the oval which created what wad being called a chad. That's what the laughing stock was as they had to count the chads or holes from the punch through. It was actually the Supreme Court that stepped in with a very quick ruling to stop the count, awarding the win to President Bush. Gore being VP, had to oversee the then Jan 6 counting/confirming the States delegates awarding the President Bush win just like Vice President Pence did I'm 2021. I'm sure this can be verified through Google or .gov.
💙I don't care if it's Biden, Harris or Peewee Herman. Dems, Independents, voters who like their democracy & freedoms need to get onboard. Unite! Vote blue! No matter who! We can't fix anything from a Trump Project 2025 dictatorship. Vote Blue! 🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊
What noncitizen voting? You are parroting a massive lie. Far more concerning is how the right is aiming to suppress votes, create chaos, make new false claims of voter fraud and take it back to the courts where Trump picked the judges!
He claims (don't know if it's true) that the Supreme Court basically intervened in favor of W by disallowing a recount. Many ballots in primarily African-American districts were thrown out using some criteria that were not used in the white areas. So I think his argument has plausibility, meaning it could be 10/10.
@@momof2949 Being right 9 out of 10 times is self-promotion? What do you think Trump does NONSTOP: the greatest in EVERYTHING! Uses every speech for every reason for self-promotion, or have you never noticed???
Lichtman developed his predictive system in cooperation with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a Russian geophysicist who brought the statistical framework from similar systems used for earthquake prediction. I would encourage everyone to look up, read and consider these keys. Note that there are elements of subjectivity and judgment involved in the evaluation of some of the keys. Not each one is a statistical slam dunk like incumbency or party mandate or primary contest. As I read and analyze the keys, the Democrats are on very thin ice this fall. RFK, how the economy is perceived by the working class, and of course the apparent turmoil in the Democratic Party regarding Biden's candidacy are wild cards that can't help but could hurt Biden's chances. Personal scandal has not been ruled out as more revelations about Biden family involvement in questionable activities come out. In my opinion, Biden (or Biden as a proxy for the Party regardless of who finally runs) is in trouble on at least 5 of the keys and is on shaky ground (no pun intended, Vladimir) on at least 3 or 4 others. I do not share Prof. Lichtman's confidence in a Biden re-election, and I'm basing that on my best take on Lichtman's own system. Time will of course, tell who's right.
I think he hasn't yet said that Biden will win. He's just saying that based on his system, the Democrats should not replace him in a contested way. Staying will maximize the chances but he's not sure that this will be sufficient to guarantee a win. Of course, whether or not an exceptional situation like we see now invalidates the keys is subject to debate. No model is true 100% of the time and if you know what constitutes a "corner case", that makes your model even better.
@@dankoppel6271 I agree. No one has polled better than Joe Biden. The power of the incumbency is considerable. Biden's performance at the high-profile NATO press conference, while not a great moment in oratory, was acceptable and far better than his performance in the Presidential debate. Furthermore, the Democrats would risk serious Convention drama if they tried to replace him with someone who polled better. Only no one polls better.
@@TradinTigerJohn Seems like Lichtman's method emphasizes structural, impersonal, and party variables over personal variables. He may well be on to something, even if it seems counter-intuitive compared with personality traits of the candidate. I'm worried about corner cases though where the model may fail.
@stevenwilson6523 His model is broken . Biden is incumbent in name only. He doesn't have the backing of the part. Many do not accept the neutered primary. You have civil war in the party So 2 keys down . That's for start
Allan Lichtman, a historian who has correctly predicted the results of nine of the 10 most recent presidential elections, said Sunday that if Democratic delegates rebel against President Joe Biden and choose another Democratic nominee, it could spell chaos for the party. There's no indication that Democratic delegates in large numbers would opt for another candidate to lead the party in November's election. But “Fox News Sunday” host Shannon Bream asked Lichtman what obligations Democratic delegates have “if President Biden says he’s not going to leave the ticket.” Biden overwhelmingly won Democratic primaries in all 50 states this year, racking up thousands of delegates ahead of the party's convention next month. the historian’s comments come as some Democrats have called on Biden to drop out of 2024 race after his rocky debate performance against former President Donald Trump last month.
Ah yes, someone with a near perfect track record in predicting elections (including Trump in 2016 when nobody else thought he would win) is a joke. Good to know.
The system includes four factors based on politics, seven on performance, and two on candidate personality. Lichtman said the incumbent party would need to lose six of those actors, or “keys,” to lose the White House. The keys range from whether a candidate is an incumbent president to the state of the economy and the presence of third-party hopefuls.
Maybe Dems are “spineless” as this man states. (I hope not). Trump made a dumb joke about being a dictator on day one re the border and this guy (and it seems others) are terrified . GROW UP.
If Biden wins I will be the first to say, "I was wrong. Trump is so bad a person with dementia can beat him." If he loses I will never vote Democrat again. Of course, I'll be in New Zealand so...
The keys don't take into account the huge Russian disinformation effort the scope of which is mind-boggling. This effort reaches dozens of millions Americans. Its goal is to promote Trump as the "best alternative". It is naive not to take into consideration this new factor.
@@TheOnlyVance understandable, so 2016 and 2020 ( just before Trump's election denial) Alan used his keys only based on each key with no emotion twords one party or the other , if you watch Alan after 2020 his trump rhetoric is completely different, he's gets an almost vile reaction to anything trump , he pulls the famous trump derangement out of him. Alan did a list of ranking all the presidents ever and I bet you can guess where Alan has placed trump ? Take one guess I'll wait .......... All done guessing? Well yes you are correct in your guess ! I could go on and on and on . The last thing I'll say is I encourage you to look at each and every key Alan has in his system, now with a open mind understand by Alan's keys only 6 keys have to fall for trump to win. So with a open mind tell me how you dont think Biden loses at the minimum 6 keys ? The absalute minimum! Id say even more . But anyway that's what I have to say about it
@@jasonr8364 for example that Trump called white supremacists "fine people" and that Trump was suggesting to inject bleech. Trump never said or insinuated either of those things. Biden lied that no US military personell died under his watch. Biden also lied about the economy and inflation during the period of Biden taking over. There are plenty more lies, but there you have two in two different categories of lies.
Well not only that trump literally literally literally said " I asked Mike pence to hold off certification until there was a re count to make sure this unprecedented election was done right " why is that bad ? Why can't he ask for a investigation?
@@jayg-lg2ot 62 cases filed and lost in the courts. What was the basis for demanding a recount? Because the results didn't favor him?? Even his hand picked supreme court said he had no case.
RFK Jr. gets my vote, Trump and Biden are two sides to the same coin, more never ending wars, more divisiveness, and as always under the two party system, profits over people.
Read Project 2025. Trump's minions have been planning for years. In 2016 even Trump was surprised he won and didn't have a clue. Now he does. Be very afraid.
This guy seems very pro Democrat, after all he is a University professor, enough said. What he is saying is that the party is more imprtant then the president. Is the USA being governed by a committee and not the president? It certainly looks that way. I am sorry to say that the USA does not have the same respect through out the world since the democrats tok power. Vote Donald Trump he will be great for the USA and the wworld.
