In 1995, when the fed cut rates, the yield curve was not inverted and the fed only cut rates 25 basis points. We just came out of the longest yield curve inversion of all time, which has been a nearly perfect predictor of recessions and the yield curve just uninverted and the point when it univerts is when the recession is typically confirmed (bull steepening). In 1995 the market was trading at a PE ratio of 18, today we are at 30. The shiller P/E ratio was at 25 in 1995, today we are at 37. Today, the market is trading at a book value of 5.17, historical average is 2.8-3 and the all time peak in March of 2000 was 5.06. This market has zero fundamental or macro parallels to 1995. This is the greatest stock market bubble of our lifetime and even Buffets indicator validates this. Please maintain intellectual integrity vs sharing CNBC propoganda.
As of last month I was trading my self I lost almost everything, now it just makes no sense, i have to choose if I'm a trader or face my job so i chose my job, now I'm confused of what etfs to store my funds for long term, maybe a little aggressive ones
Hey buddy! Don't be seduced by large dividends. Concentrate on total return. There is no sense in collecting large dividends if your overall investment is going down however I’d say SPYI, JEPQ, QQI and IWMI. But do your research. Personally I put down 1.3m$ on few ETFs, still diversifying. Earning season is around the corner, It was this time last year I made a huge break through with 200k. Handed it to a firm here in Texas, I get weekly pay out which I put back on long term ETF's. IWM will probably crush it this quarter
The big difference is that in 95 the market wasn't overvalued at all, now we are historically overvalued, there are also a lot of economic differences like the unemployment rate that was falling in 95 (and all other instances when soft landing actually worked) as the fed raised interest rates, not this time. Maybe it works, maybe not... I would not bet on it. A correction could start soon.
But the stocks in the s&p now are way more profitable than the ones in 95. That's a fact. Hence, the higher pe on the index. We could definitely see major gains, if the labor market holds.
Yes, it's better than 95 the economy currently is far more inflationary. Are we going to see some consequences? Almost certainly when will they be? Who knows, will they be severe? Its unknown but right now the most critical issue is inflation, because of the rate cuts the possibility of a recession has declined and now we inflation is in the driver seat. Is a underlying recession still possible certainly, but its currently getting beaten down by inflation.
@bw9382 i would reevaluate the data the government is trying to pass off prior to election.. Unemployment is far higher now than in 95.. our economy is shrinking.. all the manufacturing and shipping companies are warning us... i best my home those data numbers with be revised come post election... every company is talking about lack of consumer demand, layoffs are on the rise, delinquency, and repo at highs, all of big money is getting out of the market. Even the participation in current maket is far below average.. you been warned.. up to you what you do.
AI is nothing like the Internet. Anyone who's over 50 knows life before and after the Internet, and AI is not going to change the world as fast as the Internet did.
@@bw9382wrong . It’s the leading indicator with 91% accuracy since 1955. Lastly it’s when it un-inverts that we see a recession follow within 2 years. It’s the longest lasting inversion . Longer they 1929. With glass-steagall act of 1933 being removed in 99. Watch .
@@bw9382 do you just assume the parroting about the yield curve being a poor indicator is true? "It has predicted 20 of the last 10 recessions" type of thing"...well apart from what it means, which is fundamentally unclear obviously but makes sense in a range of ways, the sheer plainly obvious visual pattern you see seems very very clear. The yield curve matters and recessions tend to happen sometime soon after the curve returns positive after being negative. And the yield curve history also tells us the recent inversion was extreme. In any case, the recession statistically is sometime from last month to like mid 2025. Guess we will see.
It's not 1995. The 1990s was like the 1920s. Extreme! This is like the 1950s. Everything, I mean everything, correlates. If the market goes up 200% in 5 years, it will be inflationary and not real gains. Expect a decline. INFLATION is a huge problem. The Fed messed up.
People are forgetting that everything over 5000 has been multiple expansion and fluff. All technical analyst channel are talking about 5700 level like it’s a meaningful base for more rallies. It’s weird
MACD monthly chart. 8 - 21 - 5 settings. 1,900 above zero. Same level at 1900 and signal line crossing now as when it corrected in the very end of 2021.
The only safe way to handle this is to go long when HOD is breached or cups get completed. . If we're really going high then there is absolutely zero need to dip buy and hope. Go with the trend. Do not buy the dips. I know what people say but you got to just wait for the market to push out higher.
Consumer is done. Ain’t noway this consumer driven economy can double the S&P from here. Lower end consumer is burnt toast and even 100k consumers are hurting. Look at UPS, FEDeX, DG, ALLY .. and so on.
I think I even saw someone analyse that the luxury brands are hurting now, though it may have been some more local thing like in China. That said I do not remember details, so there could be a bunch of other factors playing in.
In 1995, jobs were actually hiring for jobs paying more than 70k in todays dollars. Not sure how a recession can be avoided at this point, since eliminating high paying jobs is happening all over the place Also many analysts don’t consider the 2022 crash as the beginning of a new bull market but a continuation of the one since covid…others consider this still the same bull market since 2008z. Personally I don’t think the crash of 2022 was bad at all and not enough of a drop to count. All the boomer stocks had P/E ratios of 30 or 25 at the “bottom” then. To call it a crash is a bit dramatic
It might be that but it might be a more moderate outlook, AI doesn't generate so much extra income except for the cos selling the chips .. so I think we're gonna have a turn in between when chips sale drop and AI income seems late to come .
