HONG KONG HAS FALLEN. Foreigners run away. Sumeet Jain 

HONG KONG HAS FALLEN. Foreigners run away sumeet Jain
The Fall of Hong Kong
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The impact on the city's status as an international financial center has been severe and far-reaching.
The repercussions of Beijing's tightening control are already evident in Hong Kong's economic landscape. Recent data paints a grim picture:
- Retail sales plummeted by 11.8% in July, with luxury goods like jewelry and watches experiencing the steepest decline of up to 25%.
- The number of companies establishing regional headquarters in Hong Kong has dropped from 1,541 in 2019 to 1,336 in 2023 - a 13% decrease that marks a decade-low.
- Total employment at these companies has fallen by over 32%, resulting in the loss of more than 60,000 jobs.
- GDP growth forecasts for 2023 have been slashed from 6% to 3.3%, effectively erasing 5 years of economic progress.
The exodus of foreign capital and talent is palpable. As international firms and expatriates depart, their roles are increasingly filled by mainland Chinese enterprises and citizens. This shift is fundamentally altering the character and global connections that once defined Hong Kong's unique position.
The roots of Hong Kong's current predicament can be traced back to the massive anti-extradition protests that erupted in 2019. These demonstrations laid bare the depths of local resistance to Beijing's encroachment and likely accelerated the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) decision to take more forceful action. The global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 provided an opportune moment for Beijing to push through the controversial National Security Law with minimal international pushback.
Fiscal Crisis Grips Mainland China
The severity of the situation is underscored by the Ministry of Finance's unusual decision to suspend the release of its regular monthly fiscal data for June, only resuming publication in September with figures for July and the first half of the year. This lack of transparency has fueled speculation about the true extent of the country's financial woes.
The scale of the deficits is alarming:
- 23 provinces face shortfalls exceeding 100 billion RMB ($13.7 billion USD)
- 15 provinces are grappling with deficits surpassing 200 billion RMB ($27.4 billion USD)
- 4 provinces are struggling with deficits over 300 billion RMB ($41.1 billion USD)
- Personal income tax declined by 5.5%
- Corporate income tax fell by 5.4%
- Value-added tax dropped by 5.2%
These figures reflect a perfect storm of challenges: rising unemployment, decreased personal incomes, struggling businesses, and weakening domestic demand. The ripple effects are being felt across various sectors, with listed companies outside the financial, oil, and chemical industries reporting an average 0.9% decrease in revenue and a 7.8% drop in profits for the first half of the year.
Nature's Fury Unleashed
As if economic woes weren't enough, China has been battered by a series of natural disasters in recent months, with Super Typhoon Bebinca emerging as the latest and most ferocious.
On September 16th, Bebinca made landfall in Lingang New City, Pudong, Shanghai, with maximum wind speeds reaching a staggering 42 m/s (94 mph). This made it the strongest typhoon to hit Shanghai in 75 years, forcing the evacuation of over 377,000 people and the relocation of 811 vessels to safe harbors.
Cross-Border Tensions Rise Amid Flooding
The aftermath of these typhoons has sparked a diplomatic row between China and Vietnam, with both countries trading accusations over the management of shared water resources.