Horse racing tips | Betting on favourites 

Glad you like them!

Many thanks

Glad to help

Many thanks for your comment

I did do a seperate video focused purely on the weather impact on different sports, so didn't want to duplicate that here. It's curious because that video has never got many views, but it's one of my favoured tactics.

Dont back favs 😂😂😂 waste off time better money to win on outsiders looks at last results if you belive bettig on favs will win you better return on bets

Since June 3rd 2011 there have been 4074 three year old novice races where the favourite has won 41.3% of the time. If you back these favourites to a £1 level stake you would have lost £134.44. Now by backing these horse with discipline and a systematic betting system you can turn that loss around into a profit. If you back only class 3/4/5 your win % now becomes 44% The races to concentrate on are 5 furlongs - 1m1f and 1m2f. 5 furlongs win on average 50% of races 1m1f win 55% 1m2f win 44% . Next the ground conditions are essential for turf racing, if the ground conditions are GOOD/FIRM or FIRM then you have the best chance of a win. On these conditions you would have won 57% of races over 5 furlongs accumulating a 20 point profit. 1m1f won 65% of races accumulating a 26 point profit. 1m2f won 49% of races accumulating 30 points profit. The biggest win streak of these races was 12 consecutive winners and 9 consecutive losers. Basically wait for the ground conditions to be perfect GOOD/FIRM- FIRM and bet the favourite over 5 furlongs - 1mile 1 furlongs - and 1mile 2 furlongs and you will make money. Just dont do what most mug punters do and chase losses. Have a big betting back around £1000 minimum to start with and bet only £2% of your bank each time. Do this and you will make a nice little retirement fund over the course of 15 to 20 years. Or better still if you can afford to have a betting bank of £10,000 then you can make a living quite comfortably.

Excellent advice regards Paul

Thank you! Appreciate this info very much, good research! @@MrDanallman

Many thanks for your comments. I'm glad the video was helpful.

Many thanks

Horses are animals and don't speak. They lose many times because of an unknown problem they have. Many times the fractions go against their running styles or undue pressure is applied even though the challenger gets spent. One thing is certain,there are no SURE THINGS! I was a licensed trainer in the 🇺🇸

​@@clydeb7713that might be so mate, but I take Greyhound racing for example. I can honestly say I can pick some races 100% you can tell by what gate they put the favorite in and what gate the pace setters are in. Then they won't show the best time of the favorite yet they will for the rest of the dogs. Number 1, 3 and 8 are the only gates ill put my money on and be confident. It's proven 3 gate has highest win percentage and number 1 closely follows being a few meters shorter overall when compared to outside gate.

Many thanks

Let me know how you go mate. I live in australia too

how didi it go?

@@Kochos he lost the house! 😂

Did you profit over the long term with this strategy MMA Media?

Thank you

Glad you enjoyed it

Most welcome

Thanks for leaving that tip on the channel.

You definitely have a potential angle but very bad example. It was making it's hurdling debut so obviously has no data on ground over obstacles. Yes it got beat but the ground wasn't the reason.

Also the fact it came 2nd doesn't show it was necessarily a good lay, it could have just been lucky that you found one that beat it. A 6/4 fav is only 40% likely to win if those are the correct odds. I'd say the fact a horse hasn't encountered the ground or conditions is generally factored into the betting. I am not saying there is no way to make this work with other criteria, but that is too simplistic.

The only thing is how do you actually tell this without previously watching and writing down the horse? Tab in Australia shows precious 10 race positions but not conditions

I agree, I have talked about value in other videos so this was a bit more general from the perspective of why do only 1/3rd win.

Yes, I agree. The market is generally efficient. But also remember a racing market is a closed loop, so something that is overbacked can be counteracted by something that has drifted and hey presto, the market is efficient. But at the same time it is, it tends to be efficient in aggregate.

Tony green

Hi, thanks for your comment. Generally referring to flat racing here. It's recommended to use exchanges as you have a much better chance to profit on the exchanges.

Exactly, that is essentially what trading order flow is. Knowing a bit may help you understand where the interest is likely to be. But only the market can instruct you if where people are actually putting their money.

How's the learning curve gone since this post you made?

It all averages out so that the market is more or less efficient. So your goal is to find value. If you looking at unraced madiens, novices and sellers. These races, often with no form or poor form lines tend to through up weak favourites.

The jumps season has this interesting variable in terms of fallers and like. It's harder to model accurately but that in itself brings more opportuntiies.

If your interested in that sort of data you should try proform

I did some research for you during the 2020 flat season only 21% of horses won back to back races in handicaps. Group 1 races only 20% 5f 40% winners 6f 13% winners 7f 0% winners 1m 50% winners 1m2f 37% winners 1m4f 40% winners Now those results are for all ages, the age group I concentrate on are ages 5 & 6. By backing ages 5 and 6 in Group 1 races last year would have won you 55% of the time and plenty of profit. Also since June 3rd 2011 if you backed a horse who won its last two races and was the first 3 in the betting then you would have won exactly 50% of your bets. The biggest win streak was 5 wins in a row and the longest losing streak was only 4 races. So be systematic with your betting approach and be disciplined and you can make a good long term profit from ages 5/6 in Group 1 flat racing.

Almost certainly as the front three will probably make up 60-80% of the market.

It's a very deep subject, but if you are lookin at a handicap mark the horse could be rising or falling depending on its form. Entire whole new subject really.

Glad it was helpful!

Glad to be of help!

I have done a few in the past, was thinking about a seperate channel so it doesn't get muddled up with gambling related stuff.

@@betangeltv please do

@@betangeltv "Gambling?!" - I thought this was all about "Trading!" ;-)

No, but you can use remote desktop to run it on a Chromebook if you install it on a remote device like a VPS.

Good question

Hi Daniel there is a free web site where you can do custom searches on the fate of favourites in UK horse racing going back over about 10 years using all kinds of filters, google Adrian Massey fate of favourites and you will find it

@@finawatsonart I used to like that and Racing Systems Builder. I studied the fate of favs on there and found that the only price band that made a small profit were those FORECAST (not returned) 1/2 or less. The only conclusion I could draw was that bookies have a problem 'selling' such short odds to punters.The further I went out in the betting the worse in terms f probable chance to odds returned the horses did. No RSB nor Massey now so I use Horse Race Base for research

Only if it's value of course!

My experience of racing is that nobody actually knows what the real price should be, so a fair chunk of it is driven by emotion and opinion. This is especially so when there is a maiden or similar race.

4/6 and 4/5 each way? Horrendous. No offence

That's more or less why I enjoy it!

I've been also on Betfair since about when they started and I love it for the challenge. I had a 44/1 winner two days ago, 15/1, 9/1 etc...yesterday and others that I've have forgotten about already because I make dozens of bets every day and it all kind of blends into one. I have a business partner and we're about to finish a betting bot for statistical race types that are shown to make a profit over the long term, but that is very boring, much more fun fingering out the hard stuff, lol. Over the last few months some of the notable winners that I remember are 101/1, 91/1, 56/1, some twenties and lots of "teens". Anyway, as a side note inf you want to have some company while betting let me know as I just started a Discord server channel for people to chat while betting. PS: I just realised saying about the bot might look like this is a sales pitch, no, the bot I mentioned isn't for sale and I won't talk about it at all. The discord is only for some company of like minded people. Actualy it's in the server rules, no selling of anything.

Really, you are not looking for a high win rate, but an edge. It's easy to find sports and strategies that win often, but often its the opposite you are looking for, for a decent edge.

No, the odds (should) represent the true odds of a horse winning, it's just that it's skewed to higher odds because of handicap races. Note the (should).

I don't actually do complex searchs when I'm betting on horses because i don't really understand everything yet... But I did understand quite well what you are saying....but I also have a question my friend, if you don't mind please:

Is it safe to lay the fav on handicap races with odd above 2.5 and better to bet on fav on specific races where the handicap is less about the track?

@@theb4dLander Taking the handicap as the most important factor to get a lay (or a back) can be quite dangerous if the horse beats the handicap (this happens way too often) or simply because there is no handicap on the fav means a back is a good idea, I think this approach can actually work with maiden special weight in the US (logically studying each race individually), the harder the conditions for the fav the better, relying only on the handicap to level the field can be quite dangerous in the long run. Also the handicap itself will raise the prices for the favs, making you take higher liabilities. My advice to laying is simple: find the distancws in which the favs lose often, then finding where NOT TO BET (laying favs in Grade 2 and 3 in the US is suicidal), and finally breaking down the race types where the favs will clearly have trouble. For the US I feel maiden/claiming turf sprints are good to lay in Keeneland, Woodbine, Belmont and Remington Park, can't talk about UK racing because I don't gamble in these, I exclusively trade them.

I don't know is the honest answer. Weight is obviously an important factor when looking at horse racing, so there is possibly a subtle effect but you would think it would be that much.

@@betangeltv Thank you very much.

Steel shoes are heavier than aluminium shoes so when change in shoes from steel to aluminium you can see the 80%of horses performing well in india.

You can, but you wouldn't know SP until it's be reconcilled so when laying, you wouldn't know your liability. But you can put them to SP.

@@betangeltv thanks for the prompt reply,

@@betangeltv if i wanted to lay the un-named 2nd fav would the lay be fired around the official offtime or the 2nd fav as decided by betfair prices when they actually start racing

Will do, it took me a while to figure it out.

@@betangeltv will wait eagerly sir Thank you 🙏

Never heard of that before. Probably before my time?

@@betangeltv A weekly paper 60's 70's 80's out of Manchester. Articles written included breakdown percentages for favs H'caps Non H'caps To type of race. Also different courses. Ken Hussey was Split Second the times compiler.

I agree

Handicaps are much harder to find a winner on full stop.

@@betangeltv thank you very much

You can also make some really nice money with low odds, with low odds I mean something between 1.4-2.0, logically those odds need a high strike rate and a decent staking plan, but it's definitely doable

We have sponsored quite a few races in the past, but nothing recently.

In general the odds generally reflect the chance. So something priced at 4.00 you would expect to have a 1/4 = 25% chance.

It's designed to nudge people in the right direction. I make money despite the market being 'efficient' and everything being 'discounted'. Focusing in on certain aspects is better than having a wild punt.

If you look at the amount of money bet on the favourite, it's always more than it should be. So the market is nearly always distorted somewhat.

@@betangeltv i suppose that makes sense 👍

I'm going to do a video in the near future when I talk about how to pick off value odds. But, of course, you will always need to find value.

@@betangeltv that would be a video definately worth watching

As long as you make it course specific.

People selling advice around 'fixed' sports matches or outcomes are usually scam artists.

The odds on the fave placing are normally very, very short... Literally making pennies

Anyone backing a wild animal running across a field at those odds deserves to lose

Lo

Just look for the opposite, then lay them.

Your win rate will be higher, but also your liability. So it doesn't make that much difference.

The handicapping system is set up in a way that encourages horses to avoid a high rating. But betting exchanges ensure a level playing field on the betting front.

Thank you for your concern! Yes, this channel is still running and we appreciate your support.

cheers from australia@@betangeltv

A root that has successfully been betting and trading full time for two decades.