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There is no housing crash coming!! Supply is way too low and inflation is the primary reason for the "price increases" anyway. Your dollar's value was destroyed. Homes didn't get much more expensive. The prices are here to stay.
I think it's time to make it more appealing for potential buyers. Real estate can be quite the rollercoaster! the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate the entire $680k liquidity value to my stock portfolio?
"Overall, buyers hold a lot of the cards right now, and sellers are having to give out more concessions to close a deal." All the best, buying on sale is actually one of the best ways to invest in stocks, and advisors are ideally suited for such task
Until the Fed clamps down even further I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now with financial markets will be best you seek a fin-professional with fiduciary responsibilities who knows about mortgage-backed securities for proper guidance.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five aiyears now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Because so many people overpaid for homes even while loan rates were low, I believe there will be a housing catastrophe because these people are in debt. If housing costs continue to drop and, for whatever reason, they can no longer afford the property and it goes into foreclosure, they have no equity since, even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I believe that many individuals will experience this, especially given the impending mass layoffs and rapidly rising living expenses.
I advise you to invest in stocks to balance out your real estate, Even the worst recessions offer wonderful buying opportunities in the markets if you're cautious. Volatility can also result in excellent short-term buy and sell opportunities. This is not financial advice, but buy now because cash is definitely not king right now!
Soon, cheap homes won't be cheap anymore because prices today will look like dips tomorrow. I think inflation will cause panic until the Fed tightens its grip even more. You can't just pull the band-aid Off half way. Booms and busts are the ups and downs of the economy, and they will affect any investments. If you are at a crossroads or need honest advice on the best steps to take right now, it is best to get counsel from a financial expert.
Appreciate this recommendation, hopefully I can get some insight to where the economy is headed and strategies to beat inflation with when I hear back from Sonya
I predict a housing crash due to people buying homes over asking price, lacking equity if prices decline further. Foreclosure becomes likely if they can't afford the house, and selling won't yield profits. With anticipated layoffs and rising living costs, many individuals may face this situation.
I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad as it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too.
You are right! I’ve diversified my portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment coach, I have been able to generate a little bit above $830k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds.
'Melissa Maureen Ward' is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quite mediocre neighborhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighborhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
Having an investment advisor is the best way to go about the market right now. I was going solo, but it wasn't working. I’ve been in touch with an advisor for a while now, and just last year, I made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
I don't see housing prices falling much until the supply is increased. In the USA we are short millions of housing units, and we aren't building nearly fast enough. People always need a place to live and we are constantly making new people. Any slight dip in prices unlocks a bunch of buyers who will gobble up that supply instantly. I want to buy inexpensive houses in 2024 and maybe invest in stocks. When's the best time to buy stocks? Some people say they make money, but others say it's risky. Any advice?
Consider buying stocks when the economy is not doing well, like during a recession. It could be a chance to buy them at a lower price and sell later when prices go up. Just keep in mind, this isn't financial advice, but sometimes it's better than keeping a lot of cash.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial. Some use hedging or defensive assets in their portfolio for market downturns. Seeking financial advice is vital. This approach has kept me financially secure for over five years, with a return on investment of nearly $1 million.
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
The attainment of substantial returns is not solely reliant on the volatility of high-performing stocks. It pertains more to the adept management of risk in conjunction with potential reward. Through astutely sizing your positions and consistently capitalizing on your strengths, you can steadily progress towards achieving your financial goals. This fundamental principle remains applicable across various investment methodologies, be it long-term investment approaches or day trading strategies.
Experienced long-term investors are aware that the market and economy have a tendency to bounce back over time, and it's wise for investors to be prepared for such a recovery. Speaking from my own experience, I continue to invest heavily in this volatile market and have achieved significant gains - my portfolio is presently up by 60%. For now, I'll keep a watchful eye on the situation and gradually invest in more stocks as opportunities arise.
@@Markjohnson09 How did you achieve it? I been trying to stick with index funds. I feel this new interest rates hikes could crash this economy. I'm looking out for a better investing strategy, I have a lump sum that inflation is steady eating up.
Finding financial advisors like Colleen Janie Towe who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
For newbies, be aware that this is a grossly oversimplified scenario. For one thing, you can't get a mortgage on an investment property without at least 25% down payment. Two, it's easy to see comps for house purchase prices, but it takes a lot of research to understand the comps on rent prices. The trick is to find a place where renting is more expensive than buying, but those places are less common because of this very type of scenario. Three, you have to remember that rent number he's using is supposed to be net income, not gross. So you have to think about costs for taxes, insurance, maintenance and vacancy when you're researching investments. All that said, real estate investing is a good tool for wealth accumulation. But it isn't foolproof.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.
Recently, I have been exploring the possibility of consulting with advisors. As a mature individual, I am in need of guidance, but I am curious to know how truly impactful their services can be?
Finding financial advisors like Margaret Johnson Arndt who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
In my opinion, a housing market crash is imminent due to the high number of individuals who purchased homes above the asking price despite the low interest rates. These buyers find themselves in precarious situations as housing prices decline, leaving them without any equity. If they become unable to afford their homes, foreclosure becomes a likely outcome. Even attempting to sell would not yield any profits. This scenario is expected to impact a significant number of people, particularly in light of the anticipated surge in layoffs and the rapid increase in the cost of living.
I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!
You are right! I’ve diversified my $150K portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment coach, I have been able to generate a little bit above $450k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds.
Camille Alicia Garcia is the coach that guides me, She has years of financial market experience, you can use something else but for me her strategy works hence my result. She provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on.
In the current economic climate, a home is not the best investment. I've already sold my Boca Grande area home, but I want to invest roughly $200,000 in stocks since I've heard that even in challenging times, investors may turn a profit. Any excellent ideas for stocks?
The truth is that if you make the right picks, you could make killer riches very quickly, although such profit usually needs expertise, as in hedge funds or financial managers. I personally prefer the latter.
I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advlsor, I currently have $985k in a well-diversified portfollo that has experienced exponential growth. It's not only about having money to invest in st0cks, but you also need to be knowledgeable.
@@Quasoncaviness2 How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
There are several independent advisors you could research. However, I have been working with “Vivian Carol Gioia” for almost four years, and we get along great. If she appeals to your judgement, you could continue with her. I support her.
Thank you. I just checked her out now and I've sent an email. I hope she gets back to me soon. I've been thinking of doing this for a long time now, and I've procrastinated enough already.
People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
Home prices will need to fall by at least 40% before the market normalizes, and in my honest opinion, it's ideal to seek expertise assistance for proper asset allocation. Straight-up, that’s how I’ve stayed afloat over 5 years now, amassing nearly $1m ROI after subsequent investments.. perhaps you should do the same
@@Castro-worldbravest this is striking ! much more info needed please , what did you invest in ? keen on achieving an optimal portfolio before year end, but only a newb at investing
Can't divulge much ’Katherine Nance Dietz’ is the professional that oversees my portfolio, she's an extremely intelligent advisor, very thoughtful, cautious, and has a great deal of expertise, you can vet her info online. @Johnny
@@Castro-worldbravest thank you for putting this out.. curiously copied and pasted her full name on my browser, spotted her site easily and skimmed through credentials, she seems very proficent
@Mr.Wilson57 seems like a bad idea because those states could charge others a tax for moving to them. Why would we want a tax for changing state of residence?
@Mr.Wilson57 Not a good idea. If companies are moving to a different state, they need their workers to move there. If the talent isn't there in this case in Oklahoma, only way to attract the talent from, in this case, NY is to through the cheaper priced properties. Otherwise companies will have to pay NY salary to that employee which companies aren't willing to do if they're moving offices to Oklahoma
Disagree on both fronts. Investors have been incentivized by Fed and government policies to crowd into the real estate mania over the past 20+ years. We can't trust the government to regulate a problem that they themselves created. One's primary home is more of a consumption product than an investment. It has high overhead costs, is not diversified, is illiquid, and does not produce cash flow. A house is first and foremost shelter for most.
One thing people should know is that a crash and bullish market provides equal high-yield potential, it's all about information and strategy application, I've seen folks make huge 7 figure profit in crashing market and pull it off much easily in bull market. Personally I’ve made over $310k this year. There are lots of opportunities in the market, unfortunately people are not utilizing them.
@@DeniseGarcia897 There are quite a number of undervalued stocks and Defi assets available in the market, get in on them. You can also short the market, there’s a lot that can be done to maximize profit.
@@Luna_Lockhardt I'm very interested in investing and I have good sum of which I'm willing to put in with the right information. Tried investing in stocks myself a few times but I’ve never been in luck picking stocks.
@@BrettGregory299 Having a broker is essential for making high yields investment, portfolio growth and diversification as well as Capital preservation which is just as important as the stocks you buy.
My economics professors told me that major investors would shift their focus to single home owner shift after the economic crash because that will lead to large profits without out defaults on mortgages that they own and they can control to the supply. I should have bought a house in 2013 when I learned about this. Housing prices in Tampa were $60,000 in 2023 now those houses cost $400,000 and that was last year. Furthermore, the state of the nation is distressing, with the average American struggling to afford a home. Even though I earn more than the average person in my area, the only housing option within my reach seems to be a modest shack. It appears that the system is designed to burden individuals with overwhelming debt, forcing us to work for meager wages, all the while diverting our attention from the legislative changes that primarily benefit the ultra-wealthy and corporations, making life increasingly challenging for the average citizen.
It’s always good to have a financial plan. I work with a licensed planner and fixed-income strategist in LA that helps me sort out these plans of investments
In my taxable account I went into dividend investing route. In my Roth I did the buy and hold route with an S&P 500 etf and total market etf along with some Berkshire B stock and SCHD.
My portfolio is made up of dividend etf’s, dividend stocks, growth stocks, it allows a bit more freedom in specific areas with help of an advisor LUCY ROSE CARTER who I’ve been in touch with over the years before buying any stocks and it’s been working perfectly for me.
Working with Lucy Rose Carter, I started my first stock in Feb 21, 2022 I noticed the market went down the whole year so now I’m up a lot of money endless we go back to the October lows I will keep putting more stocks super excited for 2024 the payoff will be great 😌😌
Great info, how can I get someone like that?…. I’m bombarded with the “don’t sit on it during the inflation, I wanted to jump in 8/22 and did nothing so far this year I think I need to get my feet wet
The 1% of rich people think of how to invest their money to increase their wealth during the recession. While 99% of struggling hard-luck people think of how to survive without food and daily necessities in the recession and the coming hyperinflation
My only problem with institutional investors owning everything is when they are about to lose their asses they just steal from the taxpayer a second time rather than having to liquidate inventory.
Not my only problem, but definitely the biggest problem. Corporations love Capitalism when they're profitable and love socialism when the market turns. Any bail outs should be in the form of stock for every American. If we are gonna socialize the loses, let's socialize the bailout and future profits.
This seems like the worst period .Even the markets are very unpredictable. started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high, today i am more than 60% down
I thought about investing in the real estate market, I heard that people make millions , but I lack good knowledge and a strategy to outperform the market and generate good yields. I have $460,000 but it's hard to bite the bullet and do it. Money is hard to come by
Having an investment advisor is the best way to go. Based on a direct encounter with a CFP named Betty Sue Blanchard, I can say with certainty that their skills are excellent. She helped raise over $580,000 in 18 months from an initially stagnant portfolio of $150,000
Cant reveal much info, Betty Sue Blanchard is the shrewd advisor responsible for my portfolio success, it's only right you look her up and confirm yourself.
The payment shock from the rapid rise in mortgage interest rates is staggering. $400,000 loan at 2.75% in 2021 = $1632 P&I/mo, $70,900 in interest paid in the 1st 7 years, vs $66,267 in principal paid $400,000 loan at 8.25% in 2023 = $3005 P&I/mo, $223,600 in interest paid in the 1st 7 years, vs just $28,866 in principal paid
Same. Im not paying these batshit insane prices. My rent is covered for a year in just interest on the money I have. Ill keep stacking my cash while everyone else goes into lifelong mortgage debt
The reality is...interest rate will eventually fall within couple years, and housing prices will continue going up. Because of textbook supply and demand.
@@hashishsenju2015THIS! Home prices are not going down and usually over 10 years will increase significantly. Interest rates are always fluctuating and you can always refinance.
I live in a bit of a beach destination. It was once filled with retirees in bungalows but once they pass on, the houses are getting gobled up by investor corps who turn them into highly profitable Air BnB properties. They have ruined the serenity and sense of community in my neighborhood. Loud obnoxious bass and shouting drunk revellers every weekend and almost every evening in the summer.
I remember in 2007 when I was working in real estate seeing people buy homes new from builders with the intention of selling before close of escrow to a new buyer for profit. The crash was so brutal and fast that I remember seeing a lot of these units foreclosed on with the builder plastic still on the carpet.
Most people find it difficult to handle a fall since they are used to bull markets, but if you know where to look and how to maneuver, you can make a size-able profit. Depending on how you intend to enter and exit, yes.
The enduring US stock market bull run evokes a mix of fear and excitement, presenting opportunities with insight, resulting in $780k gains in the past ten months, utilizing a portfolio advisor for a well-defined strategy.
@@SherlyDavis-ek4qz My portfolio has been in the gutter for the entire year, so I started researching new ways to profit in the market, but everything I tried just seemed to miss the mark. Please let us know the name of your financial advisor.
Do your homework and choose one that has strategies to help your portfolio grow consistently and steadily. *Mary Onita Wier* is responsible for the success of my portfolio, and I believe she possesses the qualifications and expertise to meet your goals.
Thanks, I just Googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to book a call with her and let you know how it goes.
I live in Canada. Currently trying to stack cash as quick as possible to buy when this bubble pops. The US market took 6 years to bottom during the great recession (peak in 2006, bottomed 2012) so I'm targeting a home purchase for 2027-2028.
I’m closing in on retirement, and I'd love to move from Minnesota to a warmer climate, but home prices are ridiculous now, and mortgage price skyrocketing on a roll... do I wait for a crash, or go ahead and buy house anyways?
Consider hiring financial advisors, estate planners or tax experts. They can provide specialized knowledge and help you navigate complex financial decisions. Right now treasuries and HYSAs pay 4.5-5% risk free, do that.
Agreed, instead of panic or following a hearsay, I simply adopted the service of an advisor early 2020 amid covid-outbreak, and so far, I've attained my most measurable financial milestone of $650k after subsequent investments
I receive financial advice from "Nicole Desiree Simon", a well-qualified and well-established wealth counselor headquartered in California. Her basic information can probably be found online.
When I curiously typed in her entire name to search online, I saw that her site was highly ranked and really professional. Thank you for sharing this; it has stoked my desire to achieve my objective again.
Someone talking about the realty of the Canadian housing market is refreshing... So many people say it won't collapse, but I don't see it that way. Home prices are the last thing to fall during an economic crisis as people cut all types of spending to keep their home. Many Canadians are living on credit to pay their mortgage but when the credit runs out they'll be force to sell. Another developing story is many Airbnb owners are going to be forced to sell which will further drive the pricing down which will probably cause a panic at some point. It's going to be ugly in my opinion but timing is hardest thing to predict. I'm saving my pennies.
Great presentation Larry! I am an American (raised in Massachusetts) and also a Canadian (dual citizen) now living in wonderful Victoria, BC. The housing market is very broken in Victoria and BC. There are many reasons, I could go on a long time. Maybe I could cash out my house (fully paid it off about 5 years ago) and move back to the US, but there is no place like Victoria in the US and I really love living in Victoria. The US housing market is a mess too but not as bad as it is here in BC. I lived in Little Rock, Arkansas for many years and it’s not a bad place and there are some reasonably priced homes I saw there recently (in neighbourhoods I would actually consider). You can find a cheap house around UALR in Little Rock but I would not live there. BUT at least if you were desperate you could buy if you really wanted to do so. In Victoria, there is absolutely nothing to buy that is not very very expensive.
I bought remote land on Vancouver island when i sold my condo in the tri cities at the height of the market just so i could stay mortgage free...bug out property anyone?
There should be a cap on Institutional investors ability to own single family homes. The vast majority of those should be available to working legal residents. As it stands, investors have unlimited access to multi-family structures so it's fair that they face restrictions on what is traditionally reserved for those who manage to get out of the rental cycle, by choice or by necessity.
Great video. Australia's real estate market situation is as dire as Canada's. The same could also be said for the UK. Huge economic upheaval coming in 2024 and 2025.
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
@@mariaguerrero08 Please tell me how can I connect to your advisor. My funds are being murdered by inflation, therefore I'm looking for a more profitable investing strategy to put them to work.
I am advised by "Camille Garcia Alicia" who boasts extensive qualifications and a wealth of experience in the financial market. Her profound grasp of portfolio diversification places her among the elite in the industry. I recommend exploring her credentials to gain a deeper understanding. Her substantial expertise makes her a valuable resource for those looking to navigate the intricacies of the financial market.
Thanks, I just Googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to book a call with her and let you know how it goes.
In case anyone is asking "why can't Canada just not raise their interest rates to match the US", besides the reason that they are also fighting inflation, countries have to follow suit or suffer their currency being devalued (which affects inflation).
Hi, a really interesting talk, and as a Toronto Real Estate Broker, I can see the effects every day. One comment though, it's not 20% of the home owners in Canada in that negative position, (since a large % of homes in Canada have no mortgage,) it's 20% of the homeowners with mortgages,, which is certainly terrible.
Living in one of the most expensive cities in Canada, I can confirm the housing and therefore debt situation is ridiculous. Will not be surprised if it all collapses, in fact I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet. Glad I never jumped into the real estate frenzy.
Another thing about Canadian mortgages is that they are only limited to a 5 year term although, they are based on an amortization period of 25 -30 years. This means if buyers locked into a low fixed rate before the hikes, they will have to renew and requalify at the end of the term under the prevailing new rates. This means that their payments will jump OR people will have to sell ( likely at a loss) at renewal. This will likely result is successive waves of defaults as 5 year fixed rate terms come due. Also, the rapid rise in home prices is not just from lack of supply and immigration( this is a load of crap). It's really the result of greedy speculation for many factors such as , no capital gains or tax on the sale primary residences and the false claim that Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary are ' believed ' to be some of the most liveable places in the world (another load of crap). BTW , I am Canadian and I live in the Vancouver area.
Ex-Canadian living in the US here. Looking to come back 'home' to Canada I did some research on why prices of homes are so high in Canada. I came up with all the dirty money that has been laundered in real estate over the past 20 years or so as a big factor. Any thoughts.
The adjustable rate versus fixed rate factor in Canadian/British home loans versus American home loans has a huge impact a lot of commentators seem to miss. Where in Canada rising interest rates can precipitate a rash of foreclosures because of the short refinance cycle, in the US it freezes housing supply and squeezes people into foreclosure because of the rising price of everything else. It won’t be 2008 in the US, it’ll be 1978.
@@tinad8561 Unlike the U.S, house prices / income are far higher. As an example, in Vancouver the average price of a detached house is $2.4M ( nothing fancy, just average) . The average household income is $96k. In order to get into the market a lot of buyers did whatever they could to secure a mortgage when rates were low ( like around 2%). Most of these buyers were maxed out at this rate. Many of my friends are in a negative amortization situation as mentioned above, and these are people with 6 figure incomes. What will happen to the average homeowner when they have to renew at 7%. This is also in the face of high degree of mortgage fraud that took place as well. ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-Y_wlnv5ns4I.htmlsi=u8JvlfeiFc9Ywr6r Not a good situation for Canadians.
In Ontario, new immigrants flooding our cities is insane. Entire subdivisions are being built mainly for immigrants coming from India. In Ontario alone there was 300,000 new immigrants in 2023 SO FAR. I believe over 1,000,000 all across Canada.🇨🇦
I really think it depends on your situation… I have had a horrible experience renting and I want to live in the city where I currently do for a while so buying a condo makes sense for me. A lot of Landlords don’t care for your safety and that is a problem I personally don’t want to deal with anymore.
It's already happening in Oct in Canada. I sold my two properties late 2022, expecting what I thought would happen. Jumped out and holding on to my cash for the the crash to happen.
I’m confused. You make two assertions, and it seems unlikely both can be accurate. Big housing market collapse AND corporate purchases of real estate. If corporations are out there buying most of the available housing, how are the prices going to collapse?
especially since the rental prices are insane at the moment lowermainland 2b2b can go for 2500-2800 and we arent even talking about vancouver yet this is like surrey langley coquitlam with canada pulling massive numbers in terms of immigration how is rent going to drop and if rent doesnt drop i dont see how housing will collapse people will continue to scrape and purchase.
I work at a PE shop and can tell you that all transactions are essentially at a stand still but the drag on the committed capital due to overhead + TV money is squeezing the less funded groups. Cap rates have expanded 2-3X over the course of 16-18 months AND people still aren’t buying at those cap rates. So larger groups with tons of money will outlast the bleed out till the crash and virtually no group is buying till the market bottoms out. Of course, I work in MF but SFR fundamentals are very similar. Or to simplify: they’re gonna buy them, but when they feel that the discount is high enough to warrant the risk/interest rates, which will require a crash. At least that’s the word on the street. No one has a crystal ball. Cheers
Canadian housing prices are crazy high...people don't have money to keep paying higher prices. Banks there are now extending amortization periods beyond 35-40 years !!!
It boggles my mind that more people aren’t upset at the concept that the FED is *literally* saying that the job market is too resilient and their goal is to crush it before lowering rates. Unemployment numbers are meaningless in larger context, what matters is wage growth and it seems they are intent on making sure the average American earner gets crushed.
In a healthy economy, bad companies fail. Easy money means misallocation of resources. The FED has a mandate to control inflation. We can not eat or live inside money. Real wealth is not a number. It only exists in a healthy economy. Watch over the next year, all the people screaming about the fed rate policy are rich people who stand to gain from inflation. It erases their debts and inflates their assets. For the bottom 80%, inflation simply lowers their standard of living.
@@veger5872 In case anyone is interested, I did a little more reading on the FEDs charter. Their dual mandate is (a) stable inflation and (b) maximAL employment. The key is that "maximal" != "maximum", and justifies crushing employment if it is necessary to support long term growth.
That's what I thought. Thank you for giving us this valuable information. In my area, for the first time since before the pandemic, it's cheaper to rent than to buy. We're waiting these interest rates out.
Its going to be devastating when that happens. The sentiment here definitely still the opposite; there's a big stand off between buyers and sellers, because the buyers have been waiting for this opportunity to happen and sellers (over-leveraged millennial or too many houses baby boomers) still denying this trend. Canadian can't get over real estate because it the main money making tools for decades.
Comment from a canadian in the banking industry : 1. Negative amortization is not as big a deal as you may think. It will stop as the mortgages reset. 2. At the margin, LTV is lower for many because inflation also inflated the property values too. Programs that allow 5% down paiments are insured so not risk besides for the owner. 3. Many owners will have to liquidate RE or CRE that is true, but they will lose equity, likely not so much the bank. There could be higher cap rates, but there is such low vacancy rates in Canada in many regions, the titles would change hands, but people gotta live somewhere. I am not sure the banking crisis is a thing. Maybe the owners get liquidated, not so sure about the banks.
Most young canadian's look at housing as a toxic asset now. Our parent's came into the work-force during a time where prices only went up, and so they tried to convince us to have the same mindset and "just buy something". But now these are the same people who can't sell their houses, and the younger generation either can't qualify for a large enough mortgage, or are smart enough to know that these homes aren't worth what sellers are asking for. Your home is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it, and if you can't afford to hold on to it, and nobody want's to pay overpriced rent for it, you're going to have to swallow your pride and cut prices.
You shouldn’t buy a house right now **unless you need a place to live** in which case you should buy a house because the amount of rent you’re paying is probably ridiculous. Housing prices are not going down in any dramatic fashion at this time in desirable markets. Inventory is too low and the builders cannot keep up with demand. Rates are high but you can refinance when they come down.
Canadian mortgages usually have 5 year terms with 25 year ammortizations. This means the those who bought homes in '20, '21 got a mortgage at 2-3% will be renewing in the 6-7% range. When the Canadian real estate makket collapes, it will have alomost no impact on the broader global economy as the segment is soo small when compared to the US and China. But it will devestate many here at home.
As an active homebuyer, I can say There is no US crash in home prices. Existing inventory is at/near record lows, and the job market remains tight. In my market, homes still sell in hours/days. Sure there is a massive drop in transactions and refis, but this is having barely any effect on home prices.
@@devonrose888 lol! I cannot afford it my friend. My point is other people are still buying aggressively, inventory is not growing, and comp prices are not dropping🤷🏻♂️
@@vitalsigns6403It depends on your market but where I’m at in Las Vegas inventory is slowly growing, price cuts are raging, prices creeping down again, rents down 7% yoy, investor activity has all but stopped. It’s getting interesting and I see the rest of the country catching on eventually. Good luck on your journey.
Prices are falling even in my relatively strong market in Minneapolis MN, USA. But they are still up 200% compared to 6 years ago, so I wouldn't call it a good deal!
problem in Canada mortgage system is, they only offer 3-6 year locked in mortgage with 25-30 year amortization. they do have like 15 year locked mortgage but interest rate is so high that nobody does it. Soon there will be major bargain sales.
That’s insane! It’s not like you can automatically change your income every 3 to 6 years. Why do Canadians elect leaders that make these unrealistic policies?
No. Truth is, if you can't pay it, someone with more money will. It's supply and demand, and theres always people with more money than you. After couple years, the interest rates decrease, and housing will continue its uptrend. Why? Because everyone loves moving to the west.
The 08 crash started in 06 and didn't show much until early 09. We were still lowering rates and pumping money into the system in 2022. It'll be a while
That CBS news article says “Researchers examined the median home prices last year for roughly 575 U.S. counties and found that home prices in 99% of those areas are beyond the reach of the average income earner, who makes $71,214 a year, according to ATTOM.” They shouldn’t compare the cost of a house in a county to the average income somewhere else. Should be the cost in a county compared to the average income in that county
In Canada the Chinese dictate home prices. Last month Vancouver prices rose as did prices in Markham, Ontario. Interest rates will never get high enough in Canada to break the Chinese stranglehold on housing. Prices will just double every 3 to 5 years nonstop irregardless of wages.
The supply problem seems to erode any optimism I have of things changing in the short term. My wife and I would like to buy a house now, but the houses that are taking hits tend to be in the 500 range. I hope you're right, but I'm skeptical this will be worked out anytime soon. And as far as I know, the incomes of most americans arenn't sufficient for home ownership; it's just gotten worse but how many of them are riding a mortgage ?
The two real estate markets ripe for the largest corrections (Vancouver, BC and Toronto, ON) are the groups of voters who put Trudeau's Liberals and the NDP into power. It was these two parties and irresponsible overspending that has overwhelmingly driven inflation and interest rates. Chickens coming home to roost is such an appropriate analogy. These voters are getting exactly what they asked for... but the rest of Canada is being taken along for the terrible ride. ~ from Calgary, Alberta,Canada
Well in the US Donald Trump pushed the fed to keep the rates low while he was in office which set an already on fire economy ablaze resulting in a spike in our inflation. So it’s not just liberals and their spending but most people are unaware of how this stuff works. You make money essentially free like the debt dependent president and inflation will occur. Plus lack of regulation so normal families have to compete with Black Rock or Zillow for a home is ridiculous.
Absolutely, and for those of us with RRSPs (Registered Retirement Savings Plans), it's essential to consider how these policies could impact our retirement savings and investments.
That's where a financial advisor like Loren Lena Walker comes in. They can provide insights into the potential impact of policy changes and help us adjust our investment strategies accordingly.
Trudeau's government has been focusing on climate change and infrastructure spending. It'll be interesting to see how these initiatives play out and whether they create new investment opportunities.
Vancouver, BC has been on the never ending uptrend for over 20 years! About time for a total collapse! Way over priced beyond affordability for the locals = higher cost of living = less business investment incentive = bankruptcies = social unrest.
Interesting take on Canadian Housing. I would agree with everything you said but it's too logical and the markets are never really fully logical. Nothing about Canadian Real Estate for 20 years has been logical. My take on what will happen. Canadian banks own Canada. They have a duopoly and no intention of ever losing money, there is just way too much power and influence to allow any losses here. It's not like the United States where there are many many banks there are only really 5 banks. If they foreclose they will have to start taking loses, so because of their power and influence and inability to accept loses will not allow that. Instead and this is already being talked about is they will just extend the amortization period out to 100 or even 200 years similar to Sweden. Now you might think why would anyone ever make payments into negative equity? Well it's still cheaper than renting and in Canada the population is growing at a pace that exceeds housing builds larger before than ever in history. Also, in Canada you can't just walk away from a mortgage like in the US, you still owe that money even if housing drops in value so unless you want to destroy your credit you pretty much have to pay. If your credit is destroyed you won't be able to rent as the rental market is so hot, you basically become homeless. The other aspect missed is although regular Canadians can no longer afford real estate you are forgetting that the people buying the real estate are not regular Canadians, they are often wealthy immigrants with investments oversees and much higher income than in your charts. Based on Canadian governments goals of immigration I don't actually see this ever stopping. People come to Canada once wealthy as a safe haven and the world is becoming more chaotic from conflict and climate change. It is anticipated over the next ten years these conflicted items will only increase. Vancouver and Toronto are seen as areas where they can escape racism, find people with similar culture and this drives a larger demand for the area. Not financial advice, not a financial adviser just my opinion that although you are logical, I don't think it will be how it all plays out.
Thanks for the Canada shout out Larry! I have been visiting Canadian real estate as you know, and I am also fairly unsure about it. However, there is the complication of 1 million new immigrants per year , every year, with no new units being built. This causes a squeeze, wether it makes sense or not. I am in Montreal, where values are still better than Toronto and Vancouver, but I wonder if it will get all the way to Toronto's overvaluation levels due to the immigrant/low unit squeeze.
In Canada few factors in my opinion that led to this variable rate mortgage issues. 1. Variable rates were as low as 1.25% and people were misled to believe that no rate hikes are happening till at least 2023, which turned out to be false. 2. With such low rates they went and bought very expensive homes without even taking into consideration if they'd be able to afford it once rates go up. 3. Buyers also chose variable rates and opted for the fixed pay variable which meant when the rates went up their monthly payments remained the same and that led to them reaching this threshold where they were only paying interest and no principal. The folks who adjusted their payments as the rates increased were in a slightly better position.
Great Video. I just sold a property in Portland and I'm thinking to put the cash in stocks, I know everyone is saying its ripe enough, but Is this a good time to buy stocks? How long until a full recovery? How are other people in the same market raking in over $450k gains within months, I'm really just confused at this point.
I bought every REO and short I could in 2015-2017 with BRRRR. I bought 9 SFH and rented them out. Selling off my inventory one per year from 2018. My latest sale I had to drop $50K but my CG will still be $130K. Bought this home in 2017. Most I have sold with CG north of $200K. I purchased a vacation beach rental complex and rent out the big home and have the back cabin for free. I have 3 full time rentals in a metro and one vacation rental. Advice for newbies, buy a home to live in, you lose.
You were about the Canadian market are correct. Massive “mortgage shock to variable rate holders like myself. But also maximum mortgage term is 5 years, so an additional 40% of mortgage holders are going into what they call mortgage shock. The bank of Canada has directly caused this. They must drop rates or destroy households. Fortunately, if one can withstand the increases, house prices likely stay high as the shortage of houses props up prices. I predict house prices skyrocket the moment that rates are cut. That is steady rise for 6 years. Sucks for buyers. Fair to owners who just paid double interest rates the past two years.
Then on top of all of this, Canada has 1m+ immigrants coming into the country a year. in a country of 40 million people, that's increasing the population by around 3% a year. The immigration minister said that he's going the keep the same amount of immigration, or maybe even increase it. There's already a housing crisis, and immigration is more than 2.5x higher than new home construction. It's a circus act up here in Canada, there's no way we make it to the projections of mid-2025 for interest rate cuts, something is going to snap. Hopefully the recoil after the snap hits the Canadian federal government in the face.
The sources I can find says 465k in 2023, 485k in 2024, and 500k in 2025. Where are you getting 1M a year? 500k is still a lot of course. But houses aren't going to build themselves, they are built by people, so if you have more people, put them to work on building homes. Problem solved.
@@KingTheRat Because there's a whole industry around students here, over 500k "temporary" immigrant students enter the country a year, and the majority of them stay after they finish their education. The numbers are skewed. Also you can't just "put them to work". Most jobs in home construction take around 3 years of training. With more than half of the immigrants holding post secondary educations, they don't want to do manual labour. It is only the other half that could do it, but they'd still need 3 years of training.
Do you think it makes more sense for a young homeowner to pay additional equity payments towards their mortgage now, or to stockpile cash and flip into a new property if/when home values tumble?
This is the best time to buy if you can afford it. The rates will come down and the buyers know this; all they need to do is hold on for a few months and refinance. Now 3 % is gone, but 5% is highly likely, one thing for sure, the rates will not be what they are now. What is going to happen when the rates go down, the prices will go up creating another sellers' market.
So what is your view / prediction of what’s going to happen to the global real estate market upon Canada housing margins call? Could you please predict?
Currently I'm just being smart and frugal with my money, I'm in the green 47% over the last 23 months and l've accumulated over $70K in pure profits from DCA’ing into stocks, ETFs, dividends and futures. However I’ve been in the red for a month now. I work hard for my money, so investing is making me a nervous sad wreck. I don’t know if I should sell everything, sit and just wait.
Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.
completely agree. I have been consistent with my profit regardless of the market conditions. I got into the market early in 2019 and the constant downtrends and losses discouraged me, so I sold off. I got back in December 2020 and this time with guidance from an investment adviser who was recommended by a colleague
Is there any chance you could recommend who you work with? I've wanted to make this switch for a very long time now, but I've been very hesitant about. I'll appreciate any recommendation.
My CFA ’Whitney Kay Stacy’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
That's interesting that you mention it is a bad time for people to buy a home this year, yet institutions are thinking otherwise if they are set to have 40% of the market by 2030... (4:43)
Another day, another video of a collapse. Man, we have had a housing market collapse every day for 4 years now. Amazing how the house prices have only gone up in price. I mean, we are living in bizarro world, so I guess prices going up during this long drawn out crash is now the new norm.
Riiiiight. People don't understand macro economics. If a "crash" was to happen at this point the big-whale investors would lose so much they would liquidate as much as possible, we would see 30 to 40% unemployment, bread lines, martial law, rationing, etc. Those big-whales heavily influence the fed which, as bad as it seems, creates some sense of stability for the workaday pleabs even if they have to cut coupons to eat.
Big shout out to Rataken! lol. Great information. As a Vancouverite, I share your perspective. I would argue it's more dire as you've only outlined the mortgage problem for 1/5 of owners. The puck problem gets passed along to renters too. I'd suggest as high as 1 in 3 people are scraping by.
Is this why we can’t get a decent HELOC? The banks say our home is worth what we paid for it plus equity instead of what houses are selling for in our neighborhood. You can’t get an empty lot in our neighborhood for less than 550 and yet they say our house is only worth 400k. If we sold it today we’d get 600k. Frustrating that we can’t get a heloc to get much needed updates. A fixed up home our size goes for 750-900k {I live in Portland OR).
