Housing Supply Highest Since 2008, What's Next For Prices? | Eric Basmajian

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Eric Basmajian, economist and founder of EPB Research, discusses the rate at which the economy is slowing, the outlook for U.S. housing market, and the long-run real income outlook.
Watch Eric's last interview with me: • Are Millions About To ...
Housing supply at more than 16-year high: www.reuters.com/markets/us/us....
*This video was recorded on July 2, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
1:00 - Labor market overview
3:43 - Economic growth
12:54 - Housing supply
17:07 - New listings
20:48 - Home price outlook
22:17 - Lumber price
25:23 - Small business sector
27:20 - Investment implications
31:34 - Long-run income
*This video is not financial advice. The channel is not responsible for the performance of sponsors and affiliates.
#economy #investing #realestate

Опубликовано:

24 июл 2024

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Комментарии : 317

@TheDavidLinReport 19 дней назад

How is the housing market where you live? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe! FOLLOW ERIC BASMAJIAN: EPB Research: epbresearch.com/ Twitter (@EPBResearch): twitter.com/EPBResearch RU-vid channel: www.youtube.com/@EPBResearch

@frankmarsh1159 19 дней назад

They're still going up in the North Atlanta suburbs.

@blkirish88 19 дней назад

Chicago suburbs still holding up fairly well because of people moving from the crime in the city out to the collar counties that actually put criminals in jail for long sentences

@standinginthegap7118 18 дней назад

Florida is having a flood of condos and townhomes that won’t sell. Investors trying to unload inventory and making small price cuts but nothing is moving. Lots of people trying to get out of Florida right now because of the insurance and HOA problems here. Lots of empty newly constructed apartment buildings

@Crypt0m0b 18 дней назад

20 k vs 500k isn’t substantial brrrrr

@Karl-nf3uc 18 дней назад

@@frankmarsh1159I saw a house on Zillow in Georgia that should be bulldozed with a collapsed garage door and boarded up windows for $190 K!😂

@Aarrenrhonda3 16 дней назад

I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quite mediocre neighborhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighborhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.

@Peterl4290 16 дней назад

Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.

@larrypaul-cw9nk 16 дней назад

I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.

@sabastinenoah 16 дней назад

I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.

@larrypaul-cw9nk 16 дней назад

Regarding these companies, I wholeheartedly agree with you. Locating financial consultants who can help you shape your portfolio, such as Annette Christine Conte, would be a highly innovative choice. There is a rough patch ahead of us, and getting through it will need careful personal money management.

@sabastinenoah 16 дней назад

She has the appearance of being a great authority in her profession. I looked her up online and found her website, which I reviewed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and employment. She has a fiduciary duty to protect my best interests. I sent her an email outlining my objectives and also booked a session with her; thanks for sharing.

@DavidCovington-st2id 18 дней назад

It is difficult to make exact projections for the housing market as it is still unclear how quickly or to what degree the Federal Reserve will reduce inflation and borrowing costs without having a substantial negative impact on demand from consumers for anything from houses to cars.

@tmer831 18 дней назад

If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.

@SteveDutton-v 18 дней назад

The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage rules are getting more difficult, and home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes. For now, get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. If you are at a cross roads or need honest advice on the best moves to take now, it is best to seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.

@SeanTalkoff 18 дней назад

I will be happy getting assistance and glad to get the help of one, but just how can one spot a reputable one?

@SteveDutton-v 18 дней назад

My CFA ’’ Sharon Ann Meny, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market..!

@SeanTalkoff 18 дней назад

I find this informative, curiously explored Sharon on the web, spotted her consulting page, and was able to schedule a call session with her, she shows quite a great deal of expertise from her resume.. very much appreciated

@EPBResearch 18 дней назад

Thanks for having me on David! Let’s do it again soon.

@TheSnugglery 19 дней назад

Millennial here 👋 can confirm. Havin' less kids than I want at this point in life 'cuz of the economy

@ultramagalatino 18 дней назад

Real unemployment is 25% not 4% 😅

@Mark-pb8kj 18 дней назад

But if you don't have 2.1 children society will collapse and it will be your fault... Who's going to pay your fair share of the 35.8 trillion when you're gone? 😂

@TheSnugglery 18 дней назад

@@Mark-pb8kj I'll pitch in by not getting medicare till I'm 80 and social security when I'm 102

@zkal11 18 дней назад

Elder millenial here. I was back and forth in my late 20's, but decided on no kids. Watching the economy has fully confirmed my choice and reinforced my decision. Best of luck to you that have children. As for society in general, hahahahahahaha! Let it burn. Most opportunities, and I would argue that America as a concept and dream, were stolen from us.

@adamcarlesco1650 18 дней назад

I think the elephant in the room with all of these discussions is that we have seen the human population octuple in about two human lifespans. Keep in mind that it took roughly 2,000 years for the global population to add a billion people from Ancient Greece to mid 1800s, yet we just added a whole billion people in 11 years (2011-2022). In 1820, the global population was roughly 1 billion; then by 1920, it was 1.8 billion; yet by 2023 we surpassed 8 billion! Yet with the exact same amount of land. This was never going to be a sustainable trajectory. We've lost 70% of all wildlife since 1970 and we're expected to have more plastic than fish in the ocean by 2050, yet this conversation only ever hinges upon making lines on imaginary dot-plot charts keep rising.

@jrgb9945 18 дней назад

So, let me get this right-real wages are way down, the price of everything is way up, the job numbers are juiced with part time and govt jobs, interest on the national debt exceeds defense, we run a deficit that is in the trillions, retail and restaurants have closed in mass, malls in the Midwest are dead, housing and car sales are dying-but hey-“it’s a mixed bag”

@PurpleMusicProductions 18 дней назад

Right exactly 😂

@mattg5022 16 дней назад

Yes

@dawnaker725 11 дней назад

Get dems out of office

@cascade_Luke 18 дней назад

Fantastic guest! Enjoyed him last time as well. Very well spoken and articulates his knowledge superbly.

@richiesteve1250 17 дней назад

I recently sold my condo for $400k and i want to invest the money in the stock market. However, it appears the market is at an all-time high. Should I invest elsewhere or wait for a market correction?

@virginiameghan4189 17 дней назад

The stock market is risky But staying on the sidelines is riskier. Missing the next bull run will be far more costly to your long-term wealth than getting in at the "right price". Consult a financial advisor if you're unsure how to proceed.

@JanetGersten 17 дней назад

You're right, I and a few Neighbours in Bel-Air Area work with an advisor who prefers we DCA across other prospective sectors. Instead of a lump sum purchase, Following this, my portfolio grew 37% in the last quarter

@gwendymolly5953 17 дней назад

Mind if I look up your advisr please? I've worked in real estate for over 25 years and have neglected a major stock portfolio. This served me well when I was flipping and renting houses, however I need a different plan now

@JanetGersten 17 дней назад

I've stuck with the popularly ‘’Amber Kay Wright” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.

@rickertcoles 17 дней назад

Thank you for putting this out, it has rekindled the fire to my goal... was able to spot Amber after inputting her full name on the web, she seems highly professional with over a decades of experience

@martinezstephen 19 дней назад

Eric always comes with excellent data. His EPB channel has some of the best data visuals in the game! Love this interview, thanks David!

@EPBResearch 18 дней назад

Thanks! New video coming out very soon!

@sojourneroftheland 19 дней назад

I appreciate how David brought up the flip side of fertility rates going down not just now (people being poorer) but related to in years past as well (due to being richer). First for vanity, then for poverty. Great informative interview. I learned alot. Thank you!

@GabbyMJ-md2rs 18 дней назад

This seems like the worst period. Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!

@MattGuzman-ug8dl 18 дней назад

Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to Sonia campbell

@Lionadmike 18 дней назад

Only God knows how much grateful i am. After so much struggles I now own a new house and my family is happy once again everything is finally falling into place!!Sonia campbell

@GabbyMJ-md2rs 18 дней назад

Amazing You trade ?? Wow that's huge, how do you make that much monthly?

@Francisco-287 18 дней назад

Sonia campbell is my hope on the current 'bear summer' . I did so many mistakes but also learned so much from it, and of course from Sonia campbell.

@BrianLyke 18 дней назад

Is this not same mrs Sonia my neighbour posted on her Whats App status 8 hours ago thanking for making her rich

@G-Anon-oz2lb 19 дней назад

But Barbara from Shark tank says the price of housing will go up forever..😂😂😂

@deseosuho 19 дней назад

It will go up forever with periodic crashes.

@keyser021 19 дней назад

@@deseosuho Name one place on earth that it went "up forever".

@cybermuse6917 19 дней назад

@@deseosuho Sooo it goes up forever except when it doesn't? Got it 👍

@mle3857 19 дней назад

That makes zero sense

@bbustin1747 18 дней назад

The prices would be depressed to this day post 2008 financial crisis but for zero interest rate policies and debt monetization by the FED. That is a fact that the subsidized RE marketplace will never admit. 😊

@shirleyy2711 19 дней назад

Key takeaway: The rich is getting richer and poor getting poorer. Unless we restore the middle class, the forecast is civil unrest in the future....Just look at all the robberies in stores, etc. Desperate time calls for desperate moves...

@JamesBlazen 17 дней назад

The rich are educated and motivated. The poor are drunk and lazy. Rich getting richer is fair.

@meesi7053 19 дней назад

2008 also is the time of the rise of the faang companies, tech oligopolies that have further exacerbated income inequality.

@CV-nn7jj 18 дней назад

The source of the rise of the fang is the inflation from QE1 and QE2. These QE programs propped up asset prices ( stocks, bonds, RE, etc). This started after the 2008 crisis. The income inequality in the US is caused primarily by the Federal Reserve

@bpb5541 18 дней назад

That is because of all the bailouts bail ins and the scenario that made it able for rich boomers and companies to buy up the houing market. Those folks stole from American Tax payers. We know the rich don't really pay taxes so they were leveraging. Only rich people could buy houses in the GFC the banks were not lending to most during that time. Which means what? It means if you want to take advantage of crashes you have to have cash. It's hard to build you cash up when all most all things cost 40% more then then did just 3 years ago. If you are trying to do this by just saving money it is not going to work. You have to invest... have your money make money. But now ... right now... is not the time to do that. We are in the bubble of all bubbles. Your time to do that would have been for the last 15 years when interest rates were basically at or near zero. You could have bought any of the index ETFs and done very well. Have lots of cash and could come in a buy up houses that are going to falling massively within 2 years. If you don't have the cash you will sit on the sideline and watch.

@knc3029 19 дней назад

Shouldn’t we distinguish between government jobs and private sector to determine actual employment rates? If all the new jobs are government that’s not production…

@brainkill7034 18 дней назад

Yes, when Eric spoke of the Fed now GDP prediction and discounted a few pieces to 1.0% expected gdp growth for the year, the govt deficit spending of 6%+ of gdp was not brought up. Factoring that in, the gdp growth would be negative.

@richardracine9055 19 дней назад

Outstanding video. Eric and Prof Hanke are the best. Thanks David.

@EricaWaters-lr6zw 18 дней назад

I'm hoping there will be a housing crisis so I can buy cheaply when I sell a few houses in 2025. As a backup plan, I've been thinking about purchasing stocks. What advice do you have for choosing the best buying time? On the one hand, I continue to read and see trading earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?

@OliverLiam-px3vx 18 дней назад

Investing in real estate and stocks might be a wise choice, particularly if you have a sound trading plan that can get you through profitable days.

@LeahLewis-ny9iu 18 дней назад

You're not doing anything wrong; you simply lack the expertise necessary to make money in a bad market. In these difficult circumstances, only really skilled experts who witnessed the 2008 financial crisis can expect to generate a large wage.

@AshleyKeith-vw7ws 18 дней назад

Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.

@LeahLewis-ny9iu 18 дней назад

My CFA, Desiree Ruth Hoffman, is a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

@OliverLiam-px3vx 18 дней назад

Thank you for this tip. I must say, Desiree appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her online page, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.

@tiolc1820 19 дней назад

I hope they aren't counting the homes for sale in Florida towards the "16 year high" supply of homes for sale. lol

@kiyoshitakeda452 19 дней назад

Detailed analysis is great so I enjoyed your guest. Thank you both.

@lak1294 18 дней назад

Truly excellent interview, great to see Eric Basmajian back in action!

@tp1gav 19 дней назад

Eric is the fucking man. David we just love the hair. Awesome

@EPBResearch 18 дней назад

I can’t compete with David’s hair

@tp1gav 18 дней назад

@@EPBResearch Your a fucking badsss son. Keep going - the world needs u

@thomaskelly6472 18 дней назад

I really appreciate listening to some of the most talented, educated and informed guest in the world! Thank you David!

@Allie-ye8oe 18 дней назад

Hallelujah!!!! The daily jesus devotional has been a huge part of my transformation, God is good 🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻was owning a loan of $47,000 to the bank for my son's brain surgery (David), Now I'm no longer in debt after I invested $8,000 and got my payout of $270,500 every months,God bless Christy Fiore 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸..

@AlfonsoAllemand 18 дней назад

Hello!! how do you make such monthly, I’m a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down of myself 😭 because of low finance but I still believe God

@sandalSanders-vt8ii 18 дней назад

Thanks to my co-worker (Carson ) who suggested Ms Christy Fiore

@sandalSanders-vt8ii 18 дней назад

She's a licensed broker here in the states🇺🇸 and finance advisor.

@Vanzee-fb2xb 18 дней назад

After I raised up to 525k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states🇺🇸🇺🇸 also paid for my son's surgery….Glory to God, shalom.

@mariage-pf6rr 18 дней назад

Can I also do it??? My life is facing lots of challenges lately

@DiegoAntonio-cu4oi 19 дней назад

*Amazing video, you work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires*

@CharlesWill-zm6sy 19 дней назад

Waking up every 14th of each month to $210,000 it’s a blessing to I and my family… Big gratitude to Waking up every 14th of each month to $210,000 it’s a blessing to I and my family… Big gratitude to Mrs Ann Marie strunk

@SantiagoSanchez-zv6fg 19 дней назад

Hello , I am very interested. As you know, there are tons of investments out there and without solid knowledge, I can't decide what is best. Can you explain further how you invest and earn?

@BrittneyMarie-ul9ou 19 дней назад

Hello how do you make such monthly?? I'm a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down 🤦‍♀️of myself because of low finance but I still believe in God

@KenechukwuSmall 19 дней назад

Good day all👍🏻 from Australia 🇦🇺. I have read a lot of posts that people are very happy with the financial guidance she is giving them ! What way can I get to her exactly ?

@RoodneyBes 19 дней назад

@@KenechukwuSmall*┼1331*

@sgpbnp 18 дней назад

Update: unemployment rate is now 4.1%. From the 3.4% low point, that is a 21% increase in unemployment. That is worrisome.

@allencoffland1685 19 дней назад

glad to see Eric back on the circuit

@EPBResearch 18 дней назад

Feels good to be back out there

@truthseeker5890 18 дней назад

Fabulous analysis! I live for details and this one certainly has some details in it. Good job to both of you!

@EPBResearch 18 дней назад

Glad you enjoyed it!

@frawdulent 19 дней назад

Sahm Rule triggered. 4.1% unemployment rate now.

@EPBResearch 18 дней назад

Not quite, but it’s dangerously close.

@bbustin1747 19 дней назад

The day after Canada 🇨🇦 day and he is back to work. Props to you and your work ethic!

@bmahoney1568 19 дней назад

Eric is always a great interview!!

@Crypt0m0b 18 дней назад

80k a year income for 250k home is insane time energy wasted and taken from generations.

@Biang88 16 дней назад

So glad you brought Eric on! Great show.

@kedirbushera3511 19 дней назад

As always great analysis

@user-bc9tp6tu4b 19 дней назад

Couldn’t see that coming😂

@standinginthegap7118 18 дней назад

Excellent interview, very informative

@EPBResearch 18 дней назад

Glad you liked it!

@David_in_Michigan 19 дней назад

Builders only build “profitable” houses.. not affordable houses… affordable (under $350k) are still in very high demand

@CaptainCaveman1170 18 дней назад

If builders are selling everything they build, then that's technically still "affordable housing" (I know that's an annoying way to look at it, but it's true, someone is affording them). But when/if they stop selling, then they'll have two bad choices (after the price cuts/incentives)...build smaller, much less profitable houses, or, stop building altogether and lay off hundreds of thousands of construction workers. I'm seeing both of those strategies being tried in the South already. But my point is that the free market always takes care of builder greed...if the Government would just step out of the way.

@joelpm503 18 дней назад

Sadly 350k might only get you an empty lot

@David_in_Michigan 18 дней назад

In the real world, the national median price is $420,000… an “entey level” will be be a smaller existing home 40-60 years old…

@CaptainCaveman1170 18 дней назад

@@joelpm503 If you have a budget of $300k, you have many, many options...so long as you're willing to live in San Antonio or other parts of the South.

@martinjohn4327 18 дней назад

Great insight into several components of the underlying economy

@libertysprings2244 17 дней назад

With spec homes where permits are pulled before sale, they don't complete the inside until after they get sold so the buyer can pick flooring etc. number of permits pulled will definitely give a better idea of the trend since they dont want too many spec homes to sit there at once unsold

@Jeff__M 19 дней назад

Eric is the dude.

@rocketj7449 18 дней назад

Still having multiple offers in my locale, some regions will vary in demand. 🤷

@Erick-tl6ll 17 дней назад

San bernardino county, absolutely sellers market. Most houses selling for a few 100k above listing and in less than a week.

@user-ph2qg1iz9u 18 дней назад

GROY TMC and AG 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

@drewstead316 18 дней назад

Economists do not consider 3 or 4% unemployment a good thing but both the US and Russia report about that much anyways. 5-7% means a healthy competition because it's not the same people that make up that 5-7% over time. But the numbers reported are a lie anyways.

@Delvy787 17 дней назад

Great guest, please have him back on.

@miniminamanmina3715 18 дней назад

housing in NJ along with warehouse construction is a continuing in an upward spiral . The is no sign of stopping . Although the warehousing boom has not stopped many brand new million square foot warehouses have been sitting unused for last 3 years . But building warehouses is still being launched into space. Unstopped.

@mattg5022 16 дней назад

And there are lots of layoffs too! Check Austin TX for example

@LockedUpLarry 16 дней назад

“I know what I have!!!” - homeowners in Austin 😅

@bssb936 18 дней назад

Great video thanks 😊😊

@HazeOfWhearyWater 19 дней назад

Residential construction here in my Northern California town seems to consist of state mandated, high density, low income housing.

@seanblvt 19 дней назад

Where in Northern California are you referring to?

@HazeOfWhearyWater 19 дней назад

@@seanblvt Butte County

@seanblvt 18 дней назад

@@HazeOfWhearyWater Ah okay so up near Chico... I'm just outside of the Bay Area in Solano County (Vacaville) and new construction seems to have stalled. Mostly large new construction homes being developed out here though as opposed to high density housing. Not a lot of new construction inventory showing up in listings as opposed to out in Sacramento County. Lots of New Construction supply out there. Not close enough for me since I occasionally commute to the city for work (generally remote).

@logantcooper6 18 дней назад

Can confirm as a 28 year old that i would have had children 2 or 3 years ago had home prices not gone haywire. Now we feel we need the 2 incomes.

@CristianEnacheRealtor 16 дней назад

In Canada, everything revolves around supply and demand, with mortgage rates being the easiest way to control these factors. My clients and followers are well aware of this. Partnering with a knowledgeable Realtor who understands the dynamics of supply and demand in Ontario's real estate market is crucial for success. The global downturn following Putin's invasion of Ukraine illustrates the importance of understanding geopolitical economics and their impact on inflation, stagflation, and market fluctuations. If your real estate professional lacks this insight, you've chosen the wrong advisor. Ensure you work with true professionals; the best aren't the ones advertising on buses, billboards, and benches. THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX. PS: Keep up the good work! Good content as always💪

@alanmcrae3679 18 дней назад

I read the yield curve has uninverted. This happens every time just before a recession.

@keithn4304 16 дней назад

I feel like if all these data points were adjusted for inflation, the overall picture would be much different. Am I missing something?

@kookiebush 19 дней назад

This dude's as good as it gets. David=Champ.

@EPBResearch 18 дней назад

Glad you found it valuable!

@littlebitmckee8234 18 дней назад

Great guest

@mmercato7174 19 дней назад

Sure???

@alexcho8953 18 дней назад

The price of residential (as well as commercial) real estate can't possibly come crashing down far enough or fast enough. In my town, in the last few years there has been an absolute explosion of construction, but they are not building for customers orders. They've built enormous numbers of houses, then I see "For Sale" signs on them for long periods of time. They've built huge office buildings then I see "For Lease" signs on them, this even though existing plazas and office buildings already have a glut of empty spaces. Why are are they doing all of this building and how can they afford to keep doing this? The builders have up to their eyeballs and beyond in debt, and this during a time when interest rates are high. WHY are they doing this? It makes no sense!

@bpb5541 18 дней назад

Good interest rates need to go higher not lower if we want to beat inflation. Until then enjoy the ever increasing cost of everything. How many of you out there are rooting for a Fed Rate cut? You are part of the problem.

@Tiffy_bringas10 15 дней назад

he should teach in the future. He is better than all of my previous professors.

@Michael-qy1jz 19 дней назад

Where is there tight inventory?? SW Florida has almost doubled

@CaptainCaveman1170 18 дней назад

Most of California still needs A LOT more inventory. The Northeast and Midwest are oddly tight as well.

@deniseclaeys8295 18 дней назад

Northern Nevada, Reno south to Lyon County, are all very close to the California border- making these areas among the shortest and easiest moves out of Northern California. Existing market still very tight, with a shocking number of new homes being built. Prices comparable to Sonoma County, Ca. Locals are struggling to buy in this market.

@Michael-qy1jz 18 дней назад

@@deniseclaeys8295 OK, we shall see what it's like next year. In SW Florida, our inventory has doubled. We are ground zero again. Last time we cratered in 2007 with all my rentals and didn't bottom till the end of 2012.. My buddy outside of Charlotte NC thought he was safe until the end of 2008 when all his cratered. I can tell you Florida, Texas, north Georgia parts of Tennessee & N Corolina, Montana, Colorado going to get hit very hard..

@zacharys7477 18 дней назад

I’m in New York (not the city) and inventory is extremely tight. Still bidding wars and paying over asking w/ cash offers

@Michael-qy1jz 18 дней назад

@@zacharys7477 Interesting, I thought half of NY moved here to Florida lol We have built off a cliff, but we will crash first.. you guys maybe a year after

@patrickw8453 18 дней назад

Amazing to me how many Canadians felt that the housing market to the moon. Many failed to see the biggest housing bubble and trap in the history of this country. Now you're facing a quickly declining housing market but your property taxes and mortgage payments wont change,. This isn't the first time people , read your history and learn the macros for the next time around. But unfortunately the next time around could be a very long time. The lost decade is here.

@Robert-qh3ok 18 дней назад

good discussion and analysis, great guest have him on more often...please...

@usaokusa 19 дней назад

Here in Orange County they are still fighting to buy any house on market. Even the trash house still worths over million dollars and people are bidding for it badly. I really don’t understand where money come from

@stevechilcoat2353 19 дней назад

Maybe some Los Angeles County residents are moving to OC?

@CaptainCaveman1170 18 дней назад

Some of it has to be a flight to safety from wealthy Chinese who don't like what they are seeing at home (aka their deflating real estate bubble). It's just too insane how people are willing to pay 950K for a dump in Buena Park.

@nghichngam 18 дней назад

same in Santa Clara, San Jose area

@Billy97ify 18 дней назад

It was very nice 50 years ago. Some say it is a slum now.

@JamesBlazen 18 дней назад

Orange County is one of the nicest places to live in the country. Ideal weather, beaches, lots of high paying jobs and a high concentration of wealthy people. Net worth for Newport Beach residents is pushing $20 million.

@lustgarten 18 дней назад

I don't see how the combined average of used homes at 3.x at 85% of sales with new homes at 9.x but only 15% can be 4.x.

@michaelbananas461 18 дней назад

3 x .85 = 2.55 9 x .15 = 1.35 2.55 + 1.35 = 3.90...(around 4)

@jeffersonjohns6397 17 дней назад

Sellers market here on the Southeast side of FL. However, softening. I’m looking to relocate to the Boston area. Inventory is very tight and it’s definitely a sellers market.

@PianoMatronNeeNee 14 дней назад

I’m in West Palm Beach and it’s definitely a buyers market. Prices are falling in my neighborhood; and the inventory is excelled more than it has been in the past 11 years.

@jeffersonjohns6397 13 дней назад

@@PianoMatronNeeNee I’m not seeing that in Wellington and Loxahatchee, both are in Palm Beach County, too.

@aprilgentile5438 18 дней назад

Not sure how anyone could think the unstable price gains due to a pandemic were stable gains and would not correct.. it’s different this time !! Yes it’s worse.

@bpb5541 18 дней назад

I agree and if I may add. We can just layer on what caused the Great Depression (credit) and what caused the Dot Com bubble (FOMO). Next we get a liquidity, collateral, and credit crisis all at the same time. It will be the Great Depression 2.0 on steroids. If the government tries to come in and save it and sell bonds, the 10 year yield will surge higher because who is going to want to lend the US Government money? They will but at much higher yields. If we have failed auctions and the FED monetizes it (buyer of last resort) we get hyperinfaltion or more specific stagflation like no one has ever seen. We want a crash and a price reset. Rich folks that own all the assets do not want this. They want infaltion. Inflation causes asset price to rise. The rich own our politicians. So I think inflation keeps going until no one can affor anything anymore and companies fail because no one is buying anything and then unemployment surges and then we get deflation. The one thing we need to watch is when the FED Cuts rates the markets usually crash hard. So we will know soon which way this is going to go.

@user-sg3pf6gw2s 18 дней назад

Trucking has a break even number at $1.62 per mile. When trucking companies are only getting paid.80-.90 cents per mile. The truckers are operating at a loss. The smart companies shutdown and liquidate their assets until the market changes. These companies continue to operate at a loss. Most companies have spent down the profits from Covid and are now taking out loans just to make payroll and pay for fuel. By summers end. The real picture of the trucking economy will be exposed. Drive by any Ritchie Bros auction and you’ll see all of the trucks and trailers on the repo auction block. This is also going to crash the value of existing trucks and trailers. The transportation industry is going to crash hard.

@jimdrums4life499 15 дней назад

Yep, and just wait as the gov't continues the insanity of forcing EVs down the industry's throat. The end consumer cannot pay prices that cover a 3 1/2x cost of truck increase. It's like a an economic crash is being purposely carried out

@ivanstan2752 16 дней назад

Great analysis 👍

@ragnorian257 16 дней назад

You'd think I was in a buyers market. But the houses stay on the market for so long. Because people aren't willing to pay what the asking price is, unless they pay 1/2 cash or an investment bank buys it, which it seems banks are buying most of them

@radiogaga123 18 дней назад

awesome 👏

@randyvanderboon117 18 дней назад

Grand Rapids, MI sellers have the upper hand

@bpb5541 18 дней назад

For now. We need to wait for the yield curve to reinvert. Let's see if we can stick this soft no landing. If hisotry is any guide we are in for a horrible recession when that happens. Housing will not be spared. Only certain markets. Grand Rapids is not sunny anything. I think that market will come down A LOT !! Just be patient.

@s1dubbzz751 17 дней назад

Rising housing supply is a really good thing.

@2ferone86 19 дней назад

Anyone who thinks lower rates will bring lower housing prices is going to be disappointed.

@kietngo3654 18 дней назад

No one thinks this lol

@hedgedrisk 18 дней назад

😂😂😂😂😂ok...lower rates for banks or lower interest rates? These are NOT the same thing bud

@carnivalgods4573 18 дней назад

Anyone who thinks the Fed pivots on their own schedule and not because the economy is in free fall is also going to be disappointed.

@CaptainCaveman1170 18 дней назад

@@carnivalgods4573 That's right, the bond market tells the Fed when to move...too late.

@2ferone86 18 дней назад

@@hedgedrisk Banks are insolvent. 0% reserve fractional lending 😂🤡.

@bradb2175 18 дней назад

Economic winter started in 2008. 8 years to go. Then better.

@shaybapple 17 дней назад

Inventory is still lower than ever in Southern California and prices are still going up

@Max655 17 дней назад

This guy is wicked smart

@user-cg2ph7hp2w 18 дней назад

This is so off base , where i live in rochester NY there is a massive inventory issue , very little houses for sale which has generated insane bidding wars , with houses going well over asking price waving inspections etc . . Enough with the fud

@ronie6773 18 дней назад

LISTEN PEOPLE , don't buy, let those greedy sellers rot and inventory build till infinity 😂

@skytrip5273 18 дней назад

You apparently dont know the definition of collapse.

@hedgedrisk 18 дней назад

this administration has redefined the word "recession"😂😂😂. I'm living in a society where people arent able to just look up the word "recess" and add 2 & 2

@fehendricks546 18 дней назад

San Francisco is still seller market.

@MetaPhysStore0770 18 дней назад

We build houses in rural central illinois with out building permits🎉 if your property is outtside town limits you can do what ever you want,

@silver-en7kl 17 дней назад

I don’t think it’s gonna be a recession, I think it’s gonna be the greatest depression in the history of mankind. No amount of charts or fancy talking economists can stop what’s coming.

@jimdrums4life499 15 дней назад

How can it NOT happen? We've printed almost 70% of the USD in circulation in the last 15 years. See Rome's collapse.

@nneisler 17 дней назад

As the recession continues more people will sell and we’ll see prices continue to drop

@WELL-WELL-WELL69 18 дней назад

Housing bubble is bursting in real time

@mrzack888 13 дней назад

Homes need to go down 80%

@TheMostPwettyiestPwincess 14 дней назад

Deep alright.Ladies ain't popping babies😂

@Travellind 17 дней назад

😮😮😮😮😮

@JamesBlazen 18 дней назад

Most people lack valuable skills. Barista and bartenders shouldn't have kids. It's not the economy's fault. It's your fault.

@user-nj4pt2yh5z 17 дней назад

😂😂😂 finally

@uncubicle5993 18 дней назад

this guy got so skinny compared to his previous pics where he looked jacked.

@EPBResearch 18 дней назад

I’m battling cancer and certainly lost a few pounds. Making progress though so it’s a small price to pay!

@Ella-Bella2024 18 дней назад

@@EPBResearch I hope you win. ❤🙏🤗

@EPBResearch 18 дней назад

@@Ella-Bella2024 Thanks for the support!

@browpetj 15 дней назад

Mr Lin, sort your inflammation out please. Hope your Crp is okay. Look after things close to your brain mate. Ears, nose throat. Important. You are on fire right now. Dont let your health fail you. Kind regards.

@dennisanderson3036 18 дней назад

That is capitalism… more and more houses in inventory and the homeless are everywhere

@jimdrums4life499 15 дней назад

No, it's the effect of a free market screwed up by corrupt politicians that is making Capitalism fail.

@raymond_sycamore 19 дней назад

I really just need someone to buy my house. $198k which is $50k less than the closest comp.

@JoesLife89 18 дней назад

Where do ya live because I have 100k to put down

@markhoffman 18 дней назад

The housing market is the best it’s ever been.

@tiolc1820 19 дней назад

two homes on my street went up for sale and there were bidding wars on them. Housing market still looks like a sellers market here.

@ActiveTravelWestUSA 18 дней назад

Cool where?

@remilaroche8048 18 дней назад

Block chanel

@not_nostradamus683 18 дней назад

Eric is a clown. Eric needs to review the concept of a rolling recession. The manufacturing sector and technology sector lost many jobs in the summer of 2022 when GDP when negative for two quarters. The transportation sector has lost many jobs since the summer of 2023 to the current period and the manufacturing sector continues to lose jobs as does the technology sector.

@travisbrinson848 17 дней назад

Ummm, some of us aren't idiots and see asset bubbles everywhere so yeah I'm waiting for the unwind that always comes along...I will not contribute to greed and the worst tendencies of human FOMO in regards to the housing market...leaving that to the millennial amateurs that haven't figured out how late stage capitalism works.... *I've worked in a high demand sector of the construction industry, mass timber, over the past 4 years and I can tell you for certain that this is looking a lot like previous construction downtowns....seeing a lot less volume of projects over the past 6-9 months being put out for bid: especially the large mixed use buildings 👷‍♂️ **Estimator/pre-construction by profeesion.