How China Could Win A War vs US 

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I know how they can win: they keep doing what they’re doing and we keep doing what we’re doing.

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One thing I d say would weigh in the US military favor is the fact that it has a lot of real life battle experience. This experience is hard to simulate.

You mistook one thing. China’s objective is never to reach out to US continent and attack there. It just wants to keep Taiwan and defend any US/Japanese military from going in. That would be a relatively smaller mission.

Earth: *is destroyed Aliens: Ha, those guys probably didn't use nordvpn.

Japan is playing an increasingly large role in the defense of Taiwan. And as Japan continues to militarized… thats only going to become a bigger thorn in China’s side.

Same as black hawk down the enemy knew the US doctrine and use it to his own advantage it was quite a success

1. All the limitation you mentioned applicable to the US is also applicable to China; 2. China cannot launch its ASBMs as they risk US nuclear response. Pre-launch ambiguity is real.

Clearly you need to launch drones from shipping containers to take your enemy by surprise ;)

War is not about winning it's about making the other side losing more than it can afford until they give up

A lot of the “if’s” mentioned have to go just perfect for China to actually win.

Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake - Napoleon Bonaparte. That's why China should never interrupt the USA and let the USA continue to do what they are doing

‘The greatest victory is that which requires no battle’ - Sun Tzu

China: *attacks U.S. U.S.: *attacks China Japan: *attacks China Koreas: *attack each other Russia: *attacks Ukraine Germany: *attacks France through Belgium.

Maybe I missed something, but it would seem to be really stupid for China to attack US forces on Okinawa in a scenario in which Japan is not pulled into the fighting. In such a scenario, Okinawa is probably neutralized as a base of operations against China due to diplomatic pressure from Japan, in-case anyone has forgotten - Okinawa is Japanese territory. An unprovoked attack on US Forces in Okinawa would almost certainly draw Japan in, (heck an attack on the uninhabited, Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands is pretty likely to cause Japanese intervention,) significantly escalating the conflict, and making it significantly more difficult for China to secure a quick and decisive victory. I normally enjoy your videos, but I think this one is quite a stretch.

Very well done and thank you.

I don't think China would directly attack US forces if they wanted to take Taiwan. I believe the more likely scenario would be China declaring Taiwan part of their territory and simply impose a soft blockade around the Island. They would then intercept any ship suspected of carrying military equipment. The US would then have to decide if they want to escalate and use force to restore free access to Taiwan. In that scenario the US would be forced to fire the first shot, and that would make it much more complicated to get public opinion behind the conflict, while China could easily paint the US as the aggressor.

This is why the US is building aegis ashore on Guam.

It is great to have this confrontation concept to learn how to defend better

Brilliant work.

Notice how before every war the Enemy underestimates it

Remember though, the US did manage to deploy SIX carrier groups around Iraq in 1990-91. Wartime can generate a lot of initiative. That said, the US had several months to get large numbers of fighters, bombers, tankers, airborne early warning, transports, helos, fighting soldiers, airmen/women, marines, ground support equipment, etc in situ.

Although it'd cost China the use of a strong diversion, taking Taiwan first would make a subsequent pushback against the US in the 2nd island chain much simpler. Without a clear, secure route into the Pacific, it doesn't really matter how many naval assets China has, as they are so few possible corridors they can take through the 1st island chain that they will always be sitting ducks. If she can secure the Taiwanese east coast and Orchid islands, then her odds of a successful offensive against Guam or Okinawa improve markedly.

I always loved the red vs blue background music/intro music

It would end up being an economic war of attrition. Without NATO importing Chinese products how long could china last financially vs how much can NATO produce without the assistance of China manufacturing

I love your work thank you sir

Win? We'll all be lucky to survive! No freakin' winners!

The new cold war isn't coming, it's already underway

What about the economic damage of going to war with your biggest customer.

China can NEVER stop the US from blocking maritime trade to China, if the US so desires. Meanwhile, China can never blockade the US. We don't have choke points, the way China does in the Malaccas.

The US saw the assembly of Iraqi forces on the Kuwaiti border and would have known what was about to occur, but they couldn't have stopped the invasion. I get that same feeling in this instance, but I will dissect the issue from my point of view as someone with a little experience, albeit not at this scale. I don't see China invading Guam or any place the US claims hegemony. I also don't see them attacking Japan's holdings, mainly because it is not tenable in the long run, as it is not as if the Japanese government would be overrun or anything, and with US support counter-attacks would be relatively simple, at the very least to drop ordinance and prevent resupply. It just couldn't be held. Guam would be easier, but China could not avoid the escalation factor, which does not work in their favor. They stand to gain nothing by starting a nuclear war, and as such are unlikely to take actions that would trigger such a conflict, thus their targets will be, as they have been up to this point, relatively small. The islands they have taken to the present time were taken precisely because they knew there would be no consequences militarily speaking. But also because those islands will serve them well in an invasion of Taiwan, thus they had a purpose. This is just like Russia's violation of sovereign territory to secure a naval base that has important strategic implications in future power projection. Taiwan is quite different from the other potential "main" targets in my opinion. Once Taiwan is seized, there is no more territory where the government and military forces can regroup. Any counterattacks would be quite predictable from Guam, Japan, or Korea, and the only avenues of approach are land or sea. You need not worry about ground forces any longer once Taiwan is overrun. I disagree that China would have to keep a Taiwan conflict down to a few weeks to be successful. Rather, they would have to keep it to about 4 or 5 days to prevent getting bogged down and increasing the uncertainty to the point that victory is no longer probable. What I mean is that all major military resistance on the ground must be quelled in that time period. You cannot have large military forces that still pose a threat on the ground, as this will increase American resolve and result in increased air activity by giving the US a force to support. Once Taiwan has been taken, the US air response will be lessened, as there is no longer a military objective to be achieved. If you cannot take the territory back, your only other option is to bomb it, but the civilians are friendly and you don't want to hurt them, and you can't really achieve anything through air attacks alone. You can destroy all the military targets you want at that stage, but it will not accomplish anything without retaking the island. If their assembly can be done relatively quietly for support materiel as well as infantry, a quick unification of the sea-based forces would be possible, and could be kept hidden from satellite observation simply by not uniting till it is time for the operation, as well as signals intelligence given good discipline and practices. The US would notice the movements, but the question is would it be enough time to have any effect on the outcome? And as for airpower, that would be even easier to hide from signals intelligence in my opinion. But the kicker is that as long as assembly is done at a relatively fast pace, I don't think the US reaction will be fast enough to really stop the operation, regardless of whether it is picked up or not, granted that China can assemble and launch in less than 72 hours. That is the window I would give them for the best outcome, but they could take longer and still succeed. It would take much prior preparation away from the coast, which likely would be picked up to a large degree, but perhaps would not be understood. Deception would be helpful. I don't know just how streamlined Chinese C2 is, and it would be challenging, but if anyone could pull it off it would be them. If I were in charge of landing troops in Taiwan, I wouldn't focus on the obvious approach from directly across the strait. I would want to land most of the amphibious forces further around the island, which would be more difficult, but without engagement restrictions I think China could, with acceptable losses, just throw a wall across the water that lands on and crushes Taiwanese defenses. But I also would not make the amphibious portion of the assault the main effort. I would save that for airborne forces. The short distance makes this quite do-able. One unknown factor is just how long it would take China to suppress the air defenses on the island, and whether it could be done before the US responds in force. Taiwan has been preparing for one major military engagement for a long time, so you cannot discount their preparation, which still could simply be outmatched in sheer numbers. That goes back to the importance of assembling in a specific manner that doesn't draw attention, over a long period of time. China would not have to defeat US air support coming to Taiwan's aid, because it likely would not be fast enough or with enough force to prevent the initial beachheads and landing zones from seeing strong Chinese forces embedded on the island. Once that happens, I feel that China could succeed. Even with prior warning in Taiwan it is possible that they could still succeed. As far as US intervention, if history has taught us anything it is that the US is never ready for the initial attack, which just bolsters my opinion that initial success is quite possible.

1:54 - Skip an AD

Now do a video on how The US military could win against China

Scary how close this coming war seems

And yet none of y’all wanna have diplomatic ties with Taiwan and you are talking about sacrificing your countrymen’ s lives to protect Taiwan?

One of the sure way to victory is your enemy is over confident and underestimate you.

China's plan to counter relies heavily on their ability to replicate their adversaries military tech and tactics. Unfortunately it also depends largely on the individual abilities of the PLA/PLAN and the training given to those servicemembers. All the advanced military technology China has aquired over the last few decades is only as effective as their targeting systems, GPS and the problem-solving skills of their missile force. Of course, German U-boats off the coast of the US wasnt seen as a possibility until they were already a viable threat to commerce and travel. It would be unwise to assume the CCP are unable to reach out and touch us.

My prediction is it will be Taiwan, USA, Japan, Australia, and India vs China. Russia will provide supply but won't fight while N Korea and S Korea will stare down each other.

CHina has never been a belligerent force. There is no reason for the USA and China to even think of war. It is a crazy thought.

How can the chinese operate the controls when they're hands are covered in honey.

They can ask Taliban a question, "how win a war against US with troops in flip flops?" Or "how to get 85 billion worth of equipment in 10 days?"

This video hits different when what your saying is what were currently seeing unfold before our own eyes

If the US Base in Subic Philippines still remain today, would that make a difference?

Judging by recent events, they could just leave us alone and we will win it for them.

RIP to those that died in Afghanistan.

They both can’t even beat the vietnamese in 1975 and 1979 😆

CG 70 that was my ship! That was also the back of the head of a certain captain that we compared to capt. Brannigan from Futurama. God we where so glad when we got a new capt.

This was a great laugh. Thank you.

Its not even a contest anymore. Its merely one side waiting out to systematically annihilate the other at their convenience.

Good luck finding the attack sub hanging out in Okinawa. I don't think a covert Tanker will be able to reach Okinawa and have boots on ground.

They don't need to sink US aircraft carriers. They just need to put a hole on the deck of US carriers to prevent aircraft from take off and landing. They launch 100 DF missiles and 10% hit the target is enough to disable 10 carriers. Then they can invade Taiwan without interference from USA.

Nice analysis! Hope that level-headed prevail and prevent disastrous war from happening.

pls make a book about something related. i have finished reading red dawn after you recommended and started reading trial by fire, which im loving to too! This type of stuff is right up your door! greeting from portugal!

Step 1: divide the US into the political left and right and further polarize through social media Srep 2: infighting Step 3: ??? Step 4: profit

This narrative is very much different than the ~8 pentagon war games where according to the pentagon , we got our asses handed to us. Cleary the assumptions in the ~8 pentagon war games in 2019, 2020 were very different than the narrative here. The most recent pentagon war game held in march 2021, as reported in the news had us winning but with huge losses on both sides. But that simulation was for a war in 2030, and several emerging technologies are assumed to be deployed on our side. It'd be interesting to know under what assumptions we had our assess handed to us. Some assumptions might be that we believe their carrier killing balistic missles work and our carriers never get within 1500 miles. Since our F18's, F35 only have a 500 mile range and we don't have that many tankers for mid-air refueling, the carriers are totally out of the fight. Another assumption is that China has munitions where one or two hits would render the all run ways at Anderson AFB useless. (in fact we're practicing having our jets take off from freesays.) And how would Okinowa be defended? The people of Okinowa have for decades wanted our military off their island, if a war was fought on their soil, would they demand the US leave Okinowa after this conflict? Clearly the assumptions in this video are different than the assumption is the pentagon war game simulations in 2019,2020.

Just made my day lol!! Love your videos man!

"tchhhhhyynaahhhhh" _-some orange dude_

Every aspect of every scenario would be disastrous.

i notice how he didn't mention both countries are smart enough not to start a war because they both know it would come down to nukes

Modern USA following the same path as Soviet Union, while modern China is like 1930s USA

The joke when the commentator says " china has to figure a way out" while the U.S has everything figured out..

You fail to mention the economic havoc that China would wreak on the US in the event they start a war. The Chinese economy would be prepared for such a blow, but the US would be surprised and markets would go absolutely to hell. I wouldn’t be surprised if a war at that scale caused a crash like 2008 again. To get things back to normal, everyone who wants the markets to stabilize would be lobbying for peace ASAP, and the media would be flooded with anti-war messaging.

In the first invasion of Ethiopia the emperor made sure that Italy was absolutely convinced that the Ethiopians didn't have any modern gun or cannons to fight back while he secretly stock pikes guns and cannons he was buying from the Russia Empire. The Italians fell for it and marched to their deaths.

I believe the good old strategy for the US and Allies will still work well....just take control of the choke points like Malacca Strait, The Suez Canal, The Strait of Hormuz, etc. It will devastate the Chinese export and oil imports, eventually hurting the Chinese economy so much that it has to give up.

You forgot to mention Taiwan's defense system of the island which is planned to slow down a possible Chinese invasion.

"It takes a long time to prepare a carrier strike group" Which is why we constantly keep them active all over the world... and only phase one out when we have a new one ready to replace it.

Love to China from Dubai ...

A few things to keep in mind. The PRC is the number one importer of crude oil and foodstuff and eatable oils. It would not need to be a close restrictions but the threat of war raises shipping insurance rates that are unsustainable

Lol i was rechearching about this and then i see a notification that you posted about it

It seems unlikely any major country would go all out . Considering loss to gain ratio , it would have to get really bad to start that fire

What would China's attack sub doctrine look like? I guess anti-shipping would be too much for them. Or maybe not?

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face...

I'd rather be forced to speak russian than chinese

Could you give us a "How US Could Win A War vs Space Cephalopod, After Invading Hawaii"? I love these fictional topics. Thx

When it comes to Taiwan, China’s problem is the island’s’ geography. There aren’t many suitable beaches to land on and the whole island has been preparing for an invasion for many decades. China has a huge military but they cannot all crowd onto small spaces that might be optimal for taking the island .

The one thing that I believe that you overlooked is the scale of this invasion of Taiwan that you mentioned. I would imagine it would have to be at least 1/2 the size of Operation Overlord. That means that this invasion would be easily detected. This means a strike like the one that you mention must be done as a preemptive strike months before any invasion of Taiwan. Otherwise troops will be on alert and things like sending 1,000 guys on a transport with no way of being supplied and reinforced to Okinawa is not going to work.

I think the most likely scenario China would push for is to force the Taiwanese government to surrender within days, which I can see happening to be honest. Not because they're so weak willed like the Afghan government but because the cost inflicted by missile barrages and a blockade would be too great to withstand for the Taiwanese population, used to very high living standards.

Yeah, man, we got a lot on our plate. Start getting ready.

Then China shows up with a supersonic missle that goes 5X the speed of sound.

Attacking Guam - which is US territory - and hope for a modest response which could lead to a tactical advantage for China after the conflict? Does not sound reasonable.

History dictates that it has always been about resources, and the power over them.

You're forgetting, and I hope China will too, about the massive Air buildup on Diego Garcia. An attack on Okinawa would unleash U.S. non nuclear weapons coming from all angles. China knows this. The one question remains. Would the U.S. get into a war with China over Taiwan? I don't believe it would.

It would be funny if Xi Jinping used theese videos as diy tutorials

To ask a serious question, unleashing the Corona virus when healthcare care costs in the USA are out of control and a Achilles heel? What if an adversary sees that the US would collapse economically and therefore be domestically too distracted or weak to fight? Maybe the combination of animosity between rural/urban, cyber attack, pandemic has changed our focus already?

I wonder why catapults are so difficult to develop? It seems like rocket assisted takeoff might be a simple alternative that would actually allow their planes to take off with fuel and weapons.

There will be at least 2 US carriers deployed to the western Pacific as well as the Japanese light carriers and the rest of the Japanese Naval and Airforce assets. The US allies will also have an increased presence in the area. It appears at this point that it will be the PLA vs Taiwan, Japan and whatever US military assets are in the Western Pacific. The rest of the allies will play a minimal role, unless there happens to be a European carrier in the area.

The new Infinity War looks good

Correction: China has more Hulls in Ships but the USA has far more Tonnage in Ship Size and Firepower! The Chinese Aircraft can't even compare to US Airpower.

If Afghanistan and Vietnam beat the USA, the real question is: how could China lose?

In war...there are no winners, only losers & thats the people and destruction that happened.

Never underestimate the enemy.

In the case of Taiwan, China would seek to create the same kind of war as what happened in Korea and the Falklands. This would be where there's a sort of designated zone of conflict where conventional fighting between the great powers is permitted but going outside risks a nuclear exchange. This would vastly mitigate (though not totally eliminate) the US initial advantage with forward positions in Japan and the RoK. If the PLA can lock down the water and airspace around Taiwan, and seize enough land there, any counterattack would either have to be in the teeth of PLA antiship/anti-aircraft defenses or risk escalation into a nuclear exchange.

China: Write That down, Write That down

I think a strike on Okinawa would almost 100% drag Japan into a conflict

no war video survives contact with reality.

The latest US Military war game where this exact scenario was run, showed the US and its allies lost fast and lost comprehensively. Idk what makes you think what you presented is anything close to plausible but, no worries. According to intelligence I've read, China may invade Taiwan as soon as NEXT month...September. Looking forward to an update after it actually happens irl. Btw, the reason for all militaries to do physical war games is to habituate the enemy to practice strikes. Then it's not practice. You can maintain tactical surprise while everyone watches that way. Think deeper.

After reading "Irresistible Revolution" my confidence in the military is very low.

_Terrorising terror was the best job I ever had_

USA cannot be beaten in war when Emma with 2 moms is in control of the patriot missile defense systems.