thank you very much for this explanation. When the pre-match model is run and we see Betfair's price higher based on our InPlay analyses, are we talking about value or market overvaluation here? E.g.: I've got my full modele price telling me 2.25 at 30' for an over 2.5 but the Betfair price is 2.54, so we're in a value market. Is this when you take your trade or do you want to see the Over 2.5 price below 2.25? In the long term, we know that only prices with value have an impact on our results. Beating the closing odds is so important in trading or betting.
Personally I waited for the value to be over a threshold. If you expect potential bigger value later in a game, then it may be wise to not take instant pre-play or early-play value. That part about betting/trading is a bit more ambiguous and you need some experience to determine what your threshold should be and in which situations it's better to wait. But value is value, so as long as you don't know when it's worth to wait you can also simply ignore it and take the value, it doesn't depend on the odds to be in a certain range.
Thank you for your explanation, it's really very interesting. I am also in the same situation where I always go into trades where there is value before the match thanks to established "data modeling". In the past I made a lot of mistakes by doing what everyone else does (number of over, xG, Home vs Away) without thinking about an expected value. Over the last few months, it's become much more stable. I also look at where the price is moving every 5 minutes thanks to an InPlay model of price versus starting price and incoming volumes. The expected value is a bit like poker, I find a lot of similarities, maybe I'm wrong but without a deep analysis in early market it's the death of the trader. Without an in-depth analysis of the inlay market, the trader is also dead. When the 2 are combined, it's really more stable. Variance happens, it always will, but taking value trades always guarantees me a profit over the long term. I've heard a lot of traders say that you absolutely have to take a high R:R of at least 2:1 when trading, but I think that's flawed, price isn't everything and each market depends on its own complete analysis. A 0.8:1 trade is sometimes more valuable than a 2:1 trade. EV+ is the key for me. It's good to see this kind of content, no trader talks about all this, thank you very much.
I have watched countless videos all these years and the value and understanding of what someone has to do to become a much better sports bettor(pro)from your video is bigger than all the other videos together. This is a no brainer that you really know how it is done. Well done! Do you know anything about API betting software? It suppose to prevent us from getting limited soft bookies accounts.
Thank you! Sure, I (betting pro) write API software which is used for my betting. Betting providers offer an "application programming interface" (API), so people can access the betting data and bet placement either through a commercial tool or by their own apps. I'm not sure how it could help with soft bookies though.
@@gurubusters You are welcome! I got tipped this information and it sounded too good to be true. We suppose to bet through some betting brokers and not get limited but i do not think that is true for soft bookies at least. We know about sharps it is a different story and it is very tough to find value there. Also could you suggest me videos (if there is any) that show the difference of how it is to bet with an API software?
Actually you are right, partly at least, if you bet through certain brokers, you can for instance bet on betfair without paying the Premium Charge. Also, some Asian bookies started to limit and via broker you are then not limited again. I haven't used any broker recently, so I don't know exactly why/how long/if betfair really accepts sharp betting via brokers. I doubt though that you can bet at Euro Bookies via brokers, at least that doesn't seem to make sense. We will have a video soon showing betting through API. The commercial API betting tools provider probably all have videos on RU-vid, I haven't used any though, so I can't really recommend any specific.
I'm so confused how you get your final model. (the odds one). -How do you know the exact price it will go to, and fall to, that's what's not making sense to me. For example, let's say we're looking at trading under 2.5. The obvious: A goal goes in during our trade, let's say we entered at the 10 minute mark for a 10 minute trade. A goal comes at the 15th minute mark, the under 2.5 price will sky rocket, so we have to trade out for a red. No issue in trading out for a red should it go bad. But, what i'm asking is, how do you know EXACTLY where the 2.5 will skyrocket to? Say the price for under 2.5 was 3.00 at the 10 minute mark, goal at 15, the price shoots to 9.00 exactly, how do you know that that's where the price will shoot to? that's what's not making sense to me. To be able to predict the market that perfectly, for an entire 90 minutes, can't be possible. I can say ''should a goal go in, the under 2.5 will jump way out, settle over the next 5-10 minutes, then slowly, but steadily start coming in again unless a red/penalty/another goal'' - but to know the EXACT price point, at every minute of that, cannot be possible, as you cannot possibly say ''at X minute, a goal is going to be scored'', because nobody can predict the future. Or did you just take a game that has already happened, to show ''the art of the possible by using correct probability models''? Because, it's impossible to predict the future, let alone a financial market for 90 minutes. Because sure, if a game plays out EXACTLY how your model said it would, but that's incredibly rare to happen. Incredibly rare. Just confused, you guys clearly know your stuff, and thanks for this video :), i'm currently learning probit/logit, but, i just can't see how you can predict the market almost perfectly for 90 minutes before the games kicked off, and to adjust your model in-play, well, by the time you've adjusted your model in-play, you will have missed the spot to jump in and exploit it. Just really confused.
We are not predicting the market! That's the big difference between trading sports on the one hand and trading stocks, crypto, forex etc. on the other hand: We can estimate the probability of a match finishing with less than 3 goals after a goal was scored. This has nothing to do with the market. But as other pros, syndicates, bookies also make similar calculations, the market will be very close to our estimation. So it might look like we predicted the market movement after a goal, but that's not what happened. Imagine you could bet on a coin toss game between Player A and Player B: The first player to win 2 rounds will be the winner. Starting odds are obviously 2.0 for both players. Now Player A calls heads, Player B tails. It's heads! What do you do now? Do you calculate the probability that Player A will be the overall winner, or do you wonder how the market will react? You calculate the probability of course. Player A now has a 75% chance to win the whole game, as Player B has to win rounds 2 and 3 to still win. 50% x 50% = 25 % chance for Player B. The 75% chance for Player A translates into fair odds of 1.333. That is your prediction, you don't think about the market, you only check if the market got it wrong and maybe offers odds of 1.38 for Player A now, then you make a bet.
@@gurubusters AHHHHHHH so your data model is based ON the game finishing UNDER 2.5 in the long run? and thus, making price movement/data model movements on that? But still, i'm so confused as to how your prediction was so close to ''perfect'', I get the coinflip analogy, so are you basically saying, if previous game was worse than expected, then we can expect next game to be ''better'' than expected (i know that's a HUGELY simplified way of looking at it, like, HUGELY simple) I'm just trying to understand that end graph, i was completely with you until that last graph...where your graph was almost 100% with the market....that's still what's got me so confused. I've been trading on the exchange for over a year, and i have a solid ROI/PL from trading over 3.5 goal markets (mainly La Liga), i've been average-ing 1k/month from it in season. Nothing compared to yourselves, i know, but i do hope to get to a point where i'm making a comfortable living, at least. (the fast success is because i come from a nosebleed poker background) Again, it's just that last graph that's got me wildly confused, and again, completely with you, up until then. Just confused. And a 3rd again, please don't take anything i've said as negativity/hate or anything, you guys clearly know your stuff, i'm just so confused as to how your data model predicted almost exactly how the market on Under 2.5 would behave. So in a nutshell, if dominant team not doing so good, we can actually lay them, for value in the long run, and vice versa, if underdog doing historically better, we can back them, to trade out after their goal?
" so your data model is based ON the game finishing UNDER 2.5 in the long run? and thus, making price movement/data model movements on that?" There was no market data going into the model, the model only estimates the probability, nothing more. The model has no idea how the market will react to a goal or whatever. "But still, i'm so confused as to how your prediction was so close to ''perfect'' " If there were bigger deviations, either the model would be very bad or the market very inefficient. For example, in minute 77, we didn't tell the model that there was a VAR speculation (there isn't even an option for that), so it's pretty off the market. "I've been trading on the exchange for over a year, and i have a solid ROI/PL from trading over 3.5 goal markets (mainly La Liga), i've been average-ing 1k/month from it in season. " That would be exceptional good, don't let yourself getting confused by Social Media, being successful in trading is very, very rare. If you ever want to make a few RU-vid videos, even if it's just for fun, we would instantly feature you, given that you spend the 100 Pounds for the notary... "So in a nutshell, if dominant team not doing so good, we can actually lay them, for value in the long run, and vice versa, if underdog doing historically better, we can back them, to trade out after their goal?" No, it's always different nowadays, you have to look at each game individually. Sometimes if a top team performs bad, the market overreacts, other times it underreacts.
@@gurubusters Sorry for the late reply, and i appreciate your time in replying. I get your model is just based on the probabilty of 2.5 goals and not the market itself (apologies if i got the 2 conflated - your model is ''how probable is under 2.5 from kick off, the odds every minute, and for this particular match and adjusting based on a per minute basis - i totally get that). I know you're not predicting the market, you're predicting the TRUE price of under 2.5 goals. My confusion just lies in how close to perfect your model is, is all, And i'm not confused by social media, i do my research, and i've carved out edges in laying over the 3.5 goal markets (i'm sure just me saying that, you know what i do), and i'm part of a trading community that teach/coach for free, with no financial gain for themselves, hence i've gotten very good, very quickly. ''If there were bigger deviations, either the model would be very bad or the market very inefficient.'' - and that's my point, you compared your data model to the final market movement, which was almost 100% perfect, that's what i don't get.... I'd happily do youtube videos, but laying over 3.5s is ''boring'' once you nail it, but hey, money is money, but doing the exact same thing over and over would bore people. I'll happily discuss what i do, add me on discord and i'll tell you #4551. Not after any of your knowledge, but i'll happily tell you what i do/how i do it, because if you can find me more edges in that market, sure, i'm all ears, but all i do is lay over 3.5 goals. It's probs a strat you already know/have used, but, yeah. Thanks for your time and your replies, it's really appreciated
Manche Seiten bieten Daten umsonst an wie football-data. Zusätzliche Daten muss man dann kaufen oder sich ein Programm schreiben, das Daten von Webseiten auslesen kann, Stichwort Scraping.
Hello sir, I've few good trading strategies and I'm trying those for quite some time and it produce good profits, but I'm still confused so, i need some help from you sir, can you please suggest me a time machine or simulator that i can use to practice my football trading? I need correct score and over/under 2.5 market, i need time machine/simulator for testing my football trading at Betfair exchange. It's so time consuming as I'm practicing it using what if figure on live matches so i want something that can save my time. Thanks for the help earlier sir 💝
You can get data from historicdata.betfair.com, the 1 minute frequency data are for free if you have an account and while not perfect, should be enough to let you play around with potential strategies.
ich hab mal versucht eine statisik auf excel zu machen war viel zu viel arbeit hab aufgegeben jetzt versuch ich immer wieder eine 10er kombi wette um direkt den sprung auf 50k oderso zu machen haha
Seems easier to get back at uni and get a degree in engineering 😁 I usually scalp, I am not rich but it pays the bills while watching football....and most importantly I am happy!
Successful scalping without having fast pictures is very hard. But it is possible in football trading, as opposed to scalping in stock trading for example. But you need a good model and/or a lot of experience and skill to pull it off. For beginners, scalping sounds easy, almost like "buy low, sell high", but it's not. If you can make consistent profits with it, then that's rare and impressive no matter how high are the profits in absolute terms. We'd instantly feature you if you ever wanted to make some videos and could prove it.
@@gurubusters I wish I was good enough to be able to be featured by you guys. For example I scalp the under 3.5 market at about the 70th minute if a match is 2-0 and it is slow due to the away team usually giving up from that point. But that is only an example of the 2-3 I use. My pictures have 4-5 seconds delay which is decent I think.
How do I find minute by minute data for sot and possession, similar to the data at ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-V8XvipJ_47Q.htmlfeature=shared&t=444, did you scrape this live through an api or pay for it?I am having trouble finding it on the usual free sites.
