How reliable is China's economic data? | DW Business 

“We know that they are lying, they know that they are lying, they even know that we know they are lying, we also know that they know we know they are lying too, they of course know that we certainly know they know we know they are lying too as well, but they are still lying. In our country, the lie has become not just moral category, but the pillar industry of this country.” ..... Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

It means the internal fiddling of the statistics is to such an extent that they are not meaningful or believable by even domestic organisations

Literally DW's 9 out of 10 videos are about china , russia and India biggest propoganda channel I've ever seen 😂😂

This commentator apparently knows his stuff

Even Li Keqiang, the econ head, said it's for guidance and that the figures are unreliable...so more of a target to reach, at all costs, if officials want to keep their posts. He looks at electricity consumption, rail cargo and bank lending instead. M2 money supply is probably better than lending data. Post covid, better to look at retail sales, air travel and the property market.

I remember there was talk of China outsourcing intensive labor to other countries and transitioning into a consumer/service market or something like that. Maybe if China didn't behave so aggressively over the last 10 years and instead truly built the B&R into a major labor supply from surrounding countries, it would be a different position than now.

Really good and informative interview. Keep it up!

😂…that’s hilarious. China has been doing this since they entered the WTO.

Very interesting dude. Would love to see more of him.

Falsifying data? How reliable is Germany's Covid data? or VW's emission data?

Central authorities need accurate data if they are massage it. You can't cook the books if you're working with cooked data.

Just had a trip to France. Chinese tourists have practically disappeared compared to 6 years ago when I last went there. It tells a lot about the Chinese economy. I remember when I was a young man travelling to Europe 30 years ago, people would say hello to any Asian face in Japanese. China is going down the same path, if not worse.

It is impossible for any country with this size of economy to grow faster each year. So the question is how fast the increase rate drop and where it stabilizes.

I'm hopeful for India but his opinion on the increased interest into investing into India is correct. Great guest.

Incredibly good, insightful interview, great questions and just an on-it analyst

"found, investigated and dealt with" - really scary stuff

CCP bots, ACTIVATE!

Falsifying data? How relaible is Germany's pandemic figures, or VW emission figures?

At least China is still a productive country. Not like others in Europe. If you visit China, you can see people are much more energetic than most of other countries. Chinese people don't waste their time on RU-vid :)

First person I've heard say that China is in economic decline after the short term.

DW, you are always so clear and complete. Thanks for being a reliable searchlight.

China's GDP for the pass couple of years was below 3.5% but then the current population are very happy and the food and accommodations are still affordable even for a worker earning RMB$ 15,000/month. Perhaps DW personnel should go visit China to verify the truth.

The question is how reliable is EU and US economic data ???

lying or not lying, not important, important is to go China with your eye to see what big change China have made in this 40 years

Free Brendan Kavanagh!

They say that NOW after it's been 30 years of making up Numbers, from population to GDP...

6.3 trillions dollars lost since 2021 😮😮😮

Hedge funds use satellites to track Chinese power plant output. But issue is Xi sometimes has power plants operate even if no electrical demand.

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and Chinese government statistics.”

So gdp is actually lower in 2023 at 2.4% instead of going higher. That would be closer to reality given the downturn of foreign invetment and divestment in China by global companies while other countries increase production to take up China's slack

That's why we teach our kids not to lie. The truth will always win.

Who knows? The only thing you know for sure is that their numbers are forever to serve political purposes and needs at the time.

the problem is the reform option is essentially closed off, Xi does not want a thriving Chinese private sector he certainly does not want a thriving foreign sector in China

USA and EU investors have not lost confident in HK/China. The insituitions are being legally forced not to invest in China. For business investors, plenty of small and medium sized businesses are getting in to these places to invest and grow.

The Ministry of Public Security of China issued an important reminder: If you are out of town recently, please don’t argue with others. If the other person is... a stock investor, no one can help you!

Actually chinese economy may be inflated by about 40% -50% real chinese economy could be 12-13 Trillion $ and Indian economy is understated by 40-50% , real Indian economy could be well over 6 Trillion $ , so its a crazy world we live in 😅

I just saw some two foxes telling other foxes that the grapes are sour, since none of them can get a taste of the grapes.

5:55 "Peking"! That threw me off for a second.

Few experts did predict China's growth in past 10 years correctly. Wish some of them can do better for next 5-10 years about China. If we look back at China economy , almost every year China experienced certian problems. But China has been growing to the GDP #2 country in the world, instead of collapsed. Today, China contributed around 30% of global growth. If China economy does go wrong, it is not a good news for the world.

China economy was doing well during Covid due to the huge demand of electronics and medical goods in the world. You might recall the crazy shipping cost at that time. The Chinese export was 2500bn USD in 2019 and increased to 3316bn in 2021 and 3380bn USD in 2023. Post covid and after Ukraine war, China never has the sky-high inflation in other countries thanks to its own vast manufacturing base and cheap energy imports from Russia, and this is why China GDP is growing in its own currency with close to zero inflation. The Chinese GDP is doing relatively poor in USD has more to do with Forex as the US government has to raise interest rate to fight inflation. People just can't understand the basics of economy.

This guy is more of an actor than an analyst. He is reinforcing some DW narrative than analysing. The contradictions and lack of context is glaring.

We might never know whether a data is true or not. No matter where it came from. But most viewers also tend to selectively view the data that fit their own set of default narrative. We call this as "confirmation bias"

Interesting interview.

I’m Chinese, so I probably already know a lot more than an average Joe on an American street. I’ve also got a family exporting business which adds credibility. I can tell you that the data is NOT to be believed. We were forced to report 15% growth last year even though in reality we had suffered quite a hit 😂 but we can’t even file that to the local government, the official simply told us: report 15% growth min or we won’t sign the papers.

I hope they are lying，so，they are lying

21 years in China, one promise, no one grew the last 4 years, all business is down a minimum 50% since 2019, everyone

China needs to let the kids play more games longer per week they need high school drop outs to work the factorys for 1-2 bucks per hour

If you don’t believe China GDP data or whatever data, don’t smear China. If you have evidence, feel free to share and China will put in efforts to improve.

I keep waiting for him to tell me about this “Heisenberg” guy and blue meth.

Great commentary.

But, why, oh why were they able to hit GDP targets by +/- .01 for years and years?

The downside of the locate governments reporting inflated GDP that they would have to contribute a certain percentage of their gains to the central government. I wonder how that work.

How reliable american data

Yes... It GDP actually only equal to Germany at - 0.03 %.

China's population is going to shrink by 100 million in 2050. The amount of retirees is going to double. The amount of working age adults will shrink by more than 20%. They are screwed. China is entering an age of stagnation. Theyll be lucky to get amy growth in the next decade.

Rather than relying on Chinese data, a better approximation can possibly be done by using export and import data of other countries to and from China.

i love how the west always talks down about china's economy and boost their's. china is the only nation with their own space station. also, BRICS and belt & road with a host of other major projects worldwide, to name a few. even a blind man can see, this planet will be all china for the next 5000 years. with much love and respect for china... its people, history and culture. from your good friends at brazil.

It gives a new meaning to "Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics"

In 2023, new vehicles sales by country: China:30.09 million units USA: 15.5 million units EU: 11.6 million units So...

Indians might not like that statements that India is not doing great but its due to lack of other option for investors.

Yoo your country is sinking, check your house first before saying anything about the home of another person

Really excellent DW. Thank You so much!!!

Chinese tourists have practically disappeared because they need to de-risk from U$A EU UK. On the evening of January 23, a Chinese citizen was splashed with chemical liquid on a street in Honolulu, Hawaii. She was seriously injured, in coma and hospitalized for treatment. 23-1-2024 A South Korea man traveling in Italy was mistaken as a Chinese. He was provoked by monkey calls and shouting discriminatory words. He was also robbed of his valuables and sprayed with pepper spray.

How could it be in same time problem with population getting old and unemployment of youth?

Simple...its not reliable at all.

7:25 seems this guy is not up to date. The central government has passed a new regulation by which all new projects have to be funded by private businesses up to a minimum of 30%. So no new projects can be fully funded by the government. There is also new regulations to stimulate foreign investments in China

"There is a range extending from 5.2 to what actually happened." aka. You are free to dive as deep as you feel comfortable on your own risk....:P

We went to my father in law’s small town for spring festival this year. I do feel that youngsters roaming on the streets become much less this year then last year. Maybe they had returned to big cities for job opportunities.

They are as reliable as your report 😂😂 outsiders seriously you need to check your data before you judge other countries and services

Monday, Wednesday, Friday: China is collapsing! Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday: China is threatening! Sunday: Taiwan!

5% growth🤑. China's problem is poor leadership.

They don’t the rate themselves so they just make up one to look good

usa/ europe economic bangkrut, why? because money for war and coruption

China may report lower gdp to enjoy the treatment of developing countries

The narrative that youth unemployment is due to people refusing simple jobs because of their education does not hold up: total youth unemployment exceeds the percentage of unemployed youth with secondary education.

📝 Summary of Key Points: 📌 China's National Bureau of Statistics warns that officials who falsify economic data will be punished, as skepticism about the accuracy of China's official data grows. 🧐 There are doubts about the accuracy of China's GDP figures, with suggestions that the data may be smoothed out to avoid portraying instability. 🚀 China's economy faces challenges such as a declining population, significant debt, and losses in the stock market. 🚀 Global investors are showing more interest in India's economy, attributed to reduced popularity in China rather than significant advances in India. 🚀 China's youth unemployment is a significant problem, with changes in calculating the rate raising concerns about manipulation. 🚀 China's retirement age is lower than in many other countries, and reform is challenging due to operational and social concerns. 🚀 China's future growth is predicted to decline due to debt and demographic problems. 💡 Additional Insights and Observations: 💬 "China's true GDP rate for 2023 could be as low as 2.4%." - Analysts suggest that China's official GDP figures may not accurately reflect the country's economic situation. 📊 $6.3 trillion has been wiped off the Chinese and Hong Kong exchanges, indicating losses in the stock market. 🌐 The accuracy of China's economic data is being questioned, raising concerns about the country's credibility and decision-making. 🌐 The decline in China's growth has psychological implications for the US, as China's position as the world's largest economy matters more to the US than China itself. 📣 Concluding Remarks: China's economic data accuracy is under scrutiny, with concerns about the credibility of official figures. The country faces various challenges, including debt, declining population, and youth unemployment. While short-term improvements may occur, the long-term outlook suggests slower growth due to underlying issues. The psychological implications of China's position as the world's largest economy matter more to the US than to China itself. Generated using TalkBud

Economists say China has 20 years left while germany has 2. Now Aint that something.

Well, according to that study that looks at lights of industry at night, China's economy is about 40% is what they actually say it is. The study only offers the formula, but it's not hard to plug in the fictional GDP numbers. Even the Chinese PM once slipped and said they're "man-made" numbers. A whole bunch of videos on this on YT with sources.

China GDP FOR 2023 is -9%

Obviously, the west know more about China, although they never live there or use one of their languages.

這個德國新聞頻道由美國政府付費傳播有關中國和俄羅斯的壞消息。

With all the funk going down in the chinese property and construction sectors - HOW can there still be a GROWTH? Is that without inflation-adjustment or is it just bogus or are there actually still booming sectors in china? Also - a youth unemployment of 20%+ does not fit with economic growth.

I used to respect DW , never I have had so much low respect for a foreign media

讲个笑话:"习禁评。"

Haha get a lifetime China basher to tell you the “truth” about the China economy 😅

How could know it is falsification? How could you let me know that you're trustworthy?

6:39 "Xi does not want a thriving private sector" - first time I've heard a commentator say that. Explains Xi's crackdown on multiple industries, but does he realistically think that the state can provide the growth for the economy?

The U.S. is literally adding roughly $2 Trillion in new debt every year right now, just to hold off economic recession...but China is somehow doing worse.

I was in China for about a month in May and the place is literally bursting with prosperity. The buildings in the cities are new and sparkling, the road network is modern and well constructed and there is 45,000 km of bullet train track...more than the rest of the world combined. Western countries seem caught in the last century by comparison.

The ccp about to assign this video's comments section to a bot farm in 3... 2... 1...

Very enlightening! Great anchor and commentator.

👍🏻 The official 🇨🇳 data are completely crooked since a long time for one single reason: real estate. Very simple when you finish building new homes/apartments you declare the value per sqm that you want and multiply by the nb of sqm even though none of these apartment has been sold !!! And they have been advertising apartments at 1000-2000 USD/sqm in remote regions when these apartments have technically no value. In my view not more than 100-200 USD/sqm. So 10x more than real value… so if you multiply by 100.000s of apartments built then you understand. Some more they have been literally forcing people to relocate in these apartments by cutting down on their access to school for their kids, medical coverage and so on… people got into heavy debt that they will never be able to pay back ! Another 5 years and disaster will strike anyway.

999999% 😂😅 full of 🗿

I almost laughing falling out of chair. EURO Zone ,German barely struggle to reach GDP 0-1%, but busy body and nosy to pointing at the country with GDP above 5%. 🤣

Fun fact:China economy is bigger than 4 Germanies 😅

Nevermind how reliable china economy is just worry about your own economy

Any provincial bureaucrat who has been sending misleading data would instantly make himself suspicious if he suddenly changed it now.

USA doesn't need to raise retirement age, they just need to close the tax loopholes.

DW just got up...😂...all these years DW was peddling china data

Drop in imports, drop in exports, but growth in GDP... suuure....