How the Buckshot Roulette Dealer AI works (and how you can use it to win) 

EDIT: I think I've found the cause for the bug I'm describing at 23:44. This happens when the dealer uses beer in conjunction with magnifying glasses. The dealer uses the MG, sees it's a blank, then uses beer. The beer ejects the round, but does not clear the "known round" flag, which only gets cleared after a shot. The dealer has another magnifying glass, but he still thinks he knows what the round is and thinks it's a blank. So if I'm understanding this correctly, MG into beer from the dealer will always result in dealer shooting himself and will not use another MG, unless he gets to the final shell in the loadout, in which case his "known round" flag gets reset to whatever the actual last shell is. I think this is actually a useful thing to know. A couple clarifications: 18:48 - I say that cigarettes don't really matter because he may not get a turn. This is obviously true for all items, so I meant he may not get a turn where he is damaged to use them. I.e. you may miss, then he goes and can't use cigarettes since he's still at full health, then you deal enough damage to kill him, or deal damage then go to the next loadout. 23:44 - The scenario I'm talking about here is that I think I've seen him use a magnifying glass, see a blank, shoot himself, then not use another magnifying glass and just shoot even though he has another magnifying glass. Almost all of the time he uses the 2nd magnifying glass here, but I think at least once he hasn't. It's strange because I don't see what's causing that in the code.

I once saw a dealer chug 3 beers and shooot themselves. He was owned so hard he decided to quit.

The game description calls him "crooked" despite the fact he plays completely fair. My guess is that he doesn't bother to count the bullets he just cheats and looks at the last one and memorizes that one instead.

The best description I've heard of the TL;DR of how the dealer works is from Markiplier. "This guy...this guy's bold. He's VERY bold. He's not SMART.....but he's bold."

In practice the handcuffs and cigarettes are the worst thing for the dealer to get, because they will always use them optimally.

Now I'm addicted to booze, drugs, and gambling, but in this life that's an optimal strategy.

7:28 that's wrong, actually. it's a 100% chance of being a blank if i point it at the dealer and 100% chance of being live if i point it at myself. at least, that's how it felt in my playthroughs

With this knowledge out, I am become dealer, destroyer of high scores

I love when people are so passionate about games when they decide to crack the entire game open and look through and see how the game works, down to values and how it can boil down in future plays. Glad this is getting recommended. Hope you do this more for future interesting games.

i wonder if the dev will add in a "hard mode" where he actually counts the shells like a human would and just. . . generally be smarter. that'd be cool to see

I played this game with my friend and we laughed our heads off when the Dealer decided to shoot itself after checking what kind of round was in the chamber. I really hope they can implement a 2-player mode so that we could play this against friends, it would raise the replay value significantly

Being down to your last “charge”, along with the dealer, and watching him Kurt Cobain himself is such a hilarious, victorious experience.

some things i've noticed about dealer in the update: 1. he now knows when there are only blanks or only lives left 2. he never uses expired medicine if he's at 1 health 3. if he's taken any damage, he will always use expired medicine unless he has a cigarette 4. he still drinks a beer after using a magnifying glass, in fact, if he has adrenaline, he'll steal your beer instead of just shooting himself

Awesome video. I agree, the AI is pretty primitive for the time being, so better cash out that $$$ while there's still time.

I like how rule number 2 happens before rule number 3, and rule 1 happens before either (the dealer will use a magnifying glass and then a beer despite rule 3 saying he can just shoot himself- he has more items to use dammit)

The developer’s gonna watch this and take notes. I know the dealer makes the best possible decisions in every circumstance, but it would be so cool if the Dealer takes into account both his AND your items. And every time you play, yours and his decisions as well as items used from the last games gets saved into the AI’s memory. And so the Dealer is able to 1 up you in the next game in any way he can. Thanks for clarifying your 2nd observation. It didn’t make sense to me.

To be fully honest I have no problem dealing with him myself, but this video was still amazingly nice to watch. Very good, high quality and informative. Keep up the good work mate!

I've looked at some of the code myself, and it seems to me he prioritizes items in the order he got them. Naturally, you can't see the specifics of this order in game, because you're getting your own items in that time. But it should become apparent from one turn to the next (I think). EDIT: oops, you talked about that! yay datamining. I also noticed some weird code that seems to add and remove cigarettes from the item pools based on, I think, the amount the dealer gets? I didn't quite understand what that code did, probably for either fairness or keeping rounds from dragging out too long. I love the explanation with expected value and building up from the simpler two-shell scenario. Way clearer than trying to simultaneously think about like eight possibilities for the odds.

this might just be the highest OK-per-minute I've ever heard

This mans 'Okay' storage in never out of stock

Imagine fairness update, where Mike Klubnika actually implements all the smart plays, like counting the bullets

Dealer be like 😁🔍 Hmm interesting... 😁💥🔫

The fact that he doesn’t count cards and just checks the last round he puts in so he knows what to do at the end despite that not being the best play kind of characterizes him as being cocky and thinking that he’s pulling one over on you by cheating even though he’s actually stupid, which makes sense for a character that would play a game like this. I love that. It’s characterization and storytelling through game mechanics that you’d have no idea about unless you crack the game open and see how he’s making his decisions. If you can see into his head and know how he thinks, then you get a feel for what kind of person he is, but you’d never know by just playing the game unless you played for a really long time actively trying to figure him out.

The fact that the dealer would do the 50/50 even if the bullet type is easy to figure out but either not the last or mg’d makes me wonder if there will ever be a version of the ai made that does count the bullets and makes decisions on that basis

Hoping this blows up, this is unique, informative, high quality stuff right here

I've never even played the game, just watched youtubers play it, and I still find this super interesting.

I still love how Dealer can check bullet and still shot himself with life round

11:01 “now heres the thing; that’s stupid actually. (sorry.)” had me cracking up, new sub 🙂 edit: also this is a great video on a nice topic, i look forward to seeing what else you create

I'd be interested to see a mod where the dealer actually uses minimax (or expectiminimax, as the case would be here). Though I imagine that his behavior here is better for average game balance.

i love the muffled music from the game in the background, its honestly such a banger

Thanks for the online lesson, teacher! You honestly have a really nice "no bullshit" charm to how you explain things in this video, so I might actually check out your channel!

Dagoth Ur really knows his stuff.

Never played this game, got no idea why RU-vid recommended this video... Absolutely fascinating, great video.

The powerpoint presentation hooked me in, no lie

Thank you for this! This is a wonderful look into how it works, and you present it in an entertaining and easy to follow way. Part of me is interested in seeing a mode where the dealer actually keeps odds in mind (being able to use the same logical deduction we have, like in the 1 live/2 dud, seeing a dud go off, and knowing that there's a 1/2 chance) - but I understand there's a difference between realistic AI and an AI that's actually fun to play against, and I'm not sure where a more realistic AI logic would fall.

Commenting from the future to note that I'm pretty sure in the Steam version's Double Or Nothing, Dealer actually keeps count of the shells in the gun. If there are more live shells than blanks left, he always shoots you. If there are more blanks, he always shoots himself (or inverts and then shoots you). And I think if there's an equal number of live and blank, he does a coin flip. That's just me guessing based on my observation, so I could be wrong though!

This keeps coming up in my recommended lol. I have never played this game, I don’t know what’s happening. Coming from a CS background though, I love the code analysis.

Hope your channel grows well! Entertaining video to watch.

It’s not designed for best advantage, it’s designed to make sure the player looses. This is to allow the game to be playable.

I don’t ever plan on playing this game, however I have been a ton of strategy videos. It’s more fun to watch knowing what’s happening.

I'd love to see a new writeup for the updated versions, including the Double Or Nothing mode where the dealer can use the burner phone item to gain information on a random upcoming shell. As well as the general AI changes, like him being able to count the rounds.

dude made a damn powerpoint presentation

If I were to write a smarter AI pattern, it would go something like this: 1. If any health is missing, use cigarettes. 2. If there are at least 2 shells remaining, use magnifying glass. 3. If current shell is determined to be live, use handsaw. 4. If at least one other live round is remaining, use handcuffs. 5. If the current round is determined to be live, fire at opponent. 6. If the current round is determined to be blank, fire at self. 7. If the current round is undetermined but the ratio of remaining blanks to live rounds is 50% or greater, and there is more than one shell remaining, use beer. 8. If the current shell is still undetermined, choose randomly to fire at opponent/self based on current ratio of remaining live/blank shells. Maybe not the most optimal AI, but probably still harder to beat than the current one.

Good to see someone cover this. The AI isn't terrible, just terrible in certain areas. You can game it, and that makes it more fun if anything.

Didn't expect moist cr1tikal to be talking

you sound like the guy from The Emperor's New Groove and I like that

Thank you, Brock Sampson for your insightful video!

I remember two weeks ago people were specifically calling this dealer AI "smart", and now that the behavior is cracked it instantly becomes dumb. How funny things turn out in very short periods of time.

Thank you for this interesting breakdown Mr. Warburton!

ive never heard a man blessed with a voice this close to patrick warburton

I beat the game first try, but I want to learn how the dealer works. I really like learning how things work.

i played 13 games, dealer has never shot himself, his luck is ungodly.

i would have never expected "Delightful Kissboy" to be the one to explain a games AI to me. truly an enlightening experience.

It would be really interesting for PVP to be added to this.

This video is really MIND BLOWING

This video sounds SO close to Kronk speaking and I keep hearing glimpses of it every now and then when his voice gets deeper.

It would be cool to watch you play a round of the game with this in mind and show how this info could be utilized!

Good video, made me want to mod the game and fix the bug + make the dealer smarter ^^ Did a stream of it yesterday, but managed to mess up the calculations a little bit so gotta try again today.

19:33 The Dealer is a confirmed alcoholic hahaha

Great video! Thanks for the information saw your post on reddit. You earned a subscription. I noticed in your high score video you said that the cigarettes lose you points, do you think you could make a video going in depth about what makes you losing points and what makes you gain points? I think that would make for a great video!

Not now mom, I'm listening to Joe Swanson break down the decision tree ai in an indie game

I love these kinds of videos

I've always found it interesting that since the dealer knows the last round every time it implies they are counting the rounds, but do a coin flip to give you chance to win. Like with casinos stopping at 17 for black jack

Here 20 minutes after you posted. New sub

Howdy. Great video, big tip if you ever make a similar kind of Game Theory video, it will help immensely to utilize payoff matrices. That way the viewer can easily read the strategy to payoff values as your talking them out. Instead of just the “Expected value is X”

With a name like this, that’s an Instant subscribe

Thank you good sir for telling me the CRUCIAL info about the adorable dealer form buckshot roulette. 🤓👆

For the example at 12:00, it helped me when I wrote it out to find that the Self shoot had an expected value of 1/3 to give -1 and a 2/3 to give 0. The second turn, assuming the worst doesn't happen, is always 50/50. This means that shooting yourself on a 1Live 2Blank isn't going to help you get an advantage; it will just be a risky chance to break even. On the flipside, it's bad for the Dealer if you choose to shoot him, with even the worst case scenario having you break even. The step between the shells available and the final expected value made understanding your explanation confusing until I got this.

I have no idea what game this is and hearing your description under this context is a wild ride

you inspired me to write a little program that tracks the number of l/b rounds.

i don't even know what buckshot roulette is and I watched the whole video. I found it very entertaining.

"Who gives a fuck about how this shit works unless it lets you win more?" Me, not owning the game and enjoying the math and programming: ....

ManlyBadassHero won his first playthroughwith the Dealer commiting scooter ankle, despite the only possible shell being live. The Dealer bumping himself off after smoking 2 cigs and downing 3 beers, each one skipping a blank, with only 1 shell left, Manly went from "oh, this is gonna hurt" to "guess not". Then he did something similar in the third video and Manly cracked up.

I have seen him use a magnifier, saw the shotgun, beer out a live round, point it at himself and get hit by a live round. Clearly it must have been a bug because it made no damn sense.

4:10 Loved this video, Great job

I once saw him using the magnifying glass and shooting himself... With a live round.

i don't even own buckshot roulette, this was just really entertaining

I saw him use a magnifying glass and then immediately pop a can of beer to eject a live shell lmao, so that random order rule REALLY screws him over big time

Dealer just likes to booze it up and have a smoke! He doesnt have to worry about getting less than 70k at the end, so its all free to him.

I made Russian roulette ai before. I thought I was giving it too much knowledge when it know how many real shells are left

Very interesting!

mentioned on another vid that it'd be interesting if the dealer actually counted the number of live and blank shells spent, specifically for that last shell condition

Plz do more game reviews or vids like it cause I could watch for awhile

i blame you for the new dealer AI being more difficult, they listened to what you said and fixed it 😭😭😭😭😭

Good ol’ prob & stats, crazy how I said I’d never use this after highschool.

This is like a college lecture

There is a proper order to use the items. Starting cigs. If you have less than max health, use one. Next with the beer. Use in only two scenarios. If there is only one live round left regardless of number of blanks, or if all remaining rounds are live unless it's the last bullet or handcuffs are in play. Then comes the magnifying glass. Now comes the handcuffs, if the current round is live and the next is unknown or live, use them. Finally, comes the saw. If the current round is known to be live, use it. Now, if it's live, fire at the dealer, if a blank, fire at self, and if unknown, fire at the dealer.

I think that they should allow the dealer to count the shells as well, like players do. It'd make him do more informed decisions. And the chances will always be in the player's favour because the player always has the first turn. But giving him the ability to count and perhaps to use items more optimally would even the playing field more between player and dealer. Because, if you play optimally, unless RNG screws you over, you will win almost every time. It would make the game more intense.

95% of gamblers quit before hitting big

Very nice! ;)

You sound very similar to Joe from family guy and I love it

Any chance we might get an updated version of this with the new items (+ possible AI chanfes)? I'm really curious to know how the dealer prioritizes items he's stealing with Adrenaline so I can deal with it better

What software did you use to combine the recordings? You said your obs crashed and I have the same problem feon time to time

From what I understand, what makes him exploitable is how he does coin flips for every turn outside of magnifying glasses or the last shell, meaning he has no concept of what the odds are. So for example, let's say you know that there are 4 lives and 4 blanks. 2 blanks were used, there are now 4 lives and 2 blanks. It is highly likely that the next shot is a live one. But the Dealer still sees this as a 50/50 coin flip in his case, so despite it being of higher value to take the chance to shoot you, there's still a chance he'll waste a life of his own anyways. So if you want to win, just keep playing into the odds. Even if the odds weren't in your favor in this scenario and you took a hit, he still is more likely to shoot himself when there are still more lives than blanks.

Great video

I want someone to do dealer vs dealer now

You seem like the kind of guy who would like Phasmophobia. Learning the different AI behaviors is key in that game

Very Interesting...

Personally i have seen him check the shell with a magnifying glass, see that it’s a live shot, then shoot himself and i won the game. There must be some kind of bug where he “forgets” what shell there is

never heard of this game before in my life nor do I ever plan on playing it but I sure af watched this entire video and I'm about to dive into that 3 hour livestream about it too Just Because