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How to Create a Dynamic MLB Baseball Expected Value Betting Model 

ExcelHelpNow
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23 авг 2024

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Комментарии : 13   
@cesarrubio885
@cesarrubio885 Месяц назад
Kind of a long shot question but was wondering if you could make a model for pitcher fantasy score for prize picks? it’s an underrated market that is very profitable
@blake4782
@blake4782 Месяц назад
Hello. Does it only favorite the favored teams or does it often like underdogs?
@ExcelHelpNow
@ExcelHelpNow Месяц назад
Great question, it all depends on where the value is, it could be either the favorite or underdog.
@mangojones3707
@mangojones3707 3 месяца назад
Does your spreadsheet work with Excel 2010?
@ExcelHelpNow
@ExcelHelpNow 3 месяца назад
I haven't tested that specifically but I don't see why it wouldn't work.
@marin2518
@marin2518 4 месяца назад
how do i get pinnacle odds being from texas?
@ExcelHelpNow
@ExcelHelpNow 4 месяца назад
You can get the odds from the website. Pinnacle is geo-location blocked for the U.S. so you aren't going to be able to get an account but accessing the odds is all you need for the model.
@bowman_chris2615
@bowman_chris2615 26 дней назад
@ExcelHelpNow, why does my wager amount sky rocket when Odds Offered is (-) value?
@ExcelHelpNow
@ExcelHelpNow 26 дней назад
@@bowman_chris2615 with the Kelly criterion you will bet more when the bet outcome is more likely to happen(along with the +EV edge). So for odds that are on the favorite side of a moneyline your wager amount will be higher. Let me know if you have further questions.
@bowman_chris2615
@bowman_chris2615 25 дней назад
@@ExcelHelpNow Thanks for the quick reply! So for example, tonight, public odds were -125 Red Sox ML, break even was -114, my book was offering -120. on a $2000 Account Value, it wanted me to wager $1,093.51. That cant be right, can it?
@ExcelHelpNow
@ExcelHelpNow 25 дней назад
@@bowman_chris2615 You are correct, that is not calculating as it should. Feel free to send me your model and I can take a look.
@doubleomega52381
@doubleomega52381 Месяц назад
This is what OddsJam does exactly
@ExcelHelpNow
@ExcelHelpNow Месяц назад
Yes, OddsJam does this for you and has some proprietary calculations for their 'fair odds'. This excel based model gives you a chance to do it yourself if you aren't looking to do a subscription service. I personally sub to OddsJam but recognize not everyone can commit to the price point or isn't fully committed to +EV betting so I hope my models provide another avenue for those either wanting to learn more and understand the math behind the bets or want a one-time purchase option.
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