How to Easily Make Your Own NHL Betting Odds Using Excel or Google Sheets.

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How to Easily Make your own NHL betting odds using Excel or Google Sheets.
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This works for any sport- NFL Football, MLB Baseball, NBA Basketball, and my favorite NHL Hockey. It also works for literally any other sport, even English premier league soccer, cricket, tennis and e-sports such as CS:GO (Counter Strike), Dota 2, League of Legends and more!
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Опубликовано:

14 дек 2020

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Комментарии : 53

@colinsmith1261 2 года назад

Hey thanks for the help! I made my own model following this for soccer and college lacrosse. Is there any way to do this say before a season starts (with 0 stats to put in) or do you have to wait until each team has played enough games for it to work right?

@robertmartinez7640 2 года назад

This is a great video! Outside of excel, do you use any software to manage/visualize data?

@jaredmiszturak 3 года назад

Thank you for making this video, it was extremely informative and very well done!

@ActionBackers 3 года назад

Glad you enjoyed it!

@japee8670 2 года назад

Thank you for the video! Im very newbie in this. So this is for money line? Is it hard to get odds for 1 x 2?

@Andre_NS 3 года назад

Nice! Won a subscriber.

@gillhawkins1302 2 года назад

Incredible vid!

@mattjames3062 9 месяцев назад

Love this, been using data for a while but it wasn’t till the Poisson distribution did I get an idea what to do with it. What edge do you find to be statistically significant? 10%? In the same breath, is there a time where there almost is too much of an edge and signifies something is awry

@seandalton4685 Год назад

How do you add in goalie props to build to the algo?

@dylanpisto7961 3 года назад

Great video and very well done in explaining all the formulas! I've made a version for myself and am wondering if the GF and GA could be simply swapped out for xGF and xGa? Thanks for your time! Subscribed 👍🏻

@ActionBackers 3 года назад

Sure you could definitely give that a go!

@ryanfinch3263 2 года назад

Will the website data automatically update in the excel or google sheet once it is updated on the website?

@kanthonyfletcher5290 2 года назад

What would the equation be if you wanted to do this with home and away stats

@troymarsh5650 Год назад

So in google sheets, how I would I get the gf/60 and the ga/60 to update daily so I don't have to manually update itby hand?

@samattwood2208 3 года назад

Hey man, thanks for the video, been seeing peoples versions of these online and wanted to make one for fun. How would you recommend going about keeping it updated?

@ActionBackers 3 года назад

Depending on where you're getting your data you can just use a simple importHTML to get the data automatically in there daily. I have a video on getting data from tables into Sheets or Excel that might help

@JaseAndFriends 2 года назад

do you sell any of these spreadsheets? VS making my own?

@annadad2023 5 месяцев назад

I have a question, what if you took the attacking strength and defensive strengths to get your predicted score, but then ran a Montecarlo simulation of say 10 K games to get that score. Based off of the new Monte score could you then do the Poisson distribution and get a better win average overall since the model runs a little bit more in-depth? Also, how often (if at all) does the Poisson win percentage reflect a different answer than the original sim score?

@anthonycorreia1311 3 года назад

Great video! Super informative. Unless I missed it, what’s the maintenance like for this? The averages must change, at least somewhat, on an almost daily basis

@ActionBackers 3 года назад

Correct. Mine auto-updates daily

@deckednhl8051 2 года назад

@@ActionBackers how do you get it to update daily??

@clarkbjame 3 года назад

If I were trying to do this with bigger numbers, such as scores for basketball games that would be in the range of 100-150, what would I use instead of POISSON DIST? I tried using it but it didn't seem to work correctly. Loving the tutorials!

@ActionBackers 3 года назад

Poisson does not work for basketball nor football or baseball. It only works when points are scored at a consistent rate of 1. You can look at Monte Carlo simulation or Pythagorean win expectation

@clarkbjame 3 года назад

That makes more sense. Thank you. Do you have more tutorials on your website?

@doctorflush878 3 года назад

Is there way to look up sports books live odds to arb the money line ?

@ActionBackers 3 года назад

I mean yes. But that’s not really anything to do with this video lol also arbitrage opportunities are quite rare for main market events not on an exchange so not really viable unless you’re willing to sit at a screen all day and have money ready to go on lots of accounts

@jonathonsawyer3470 3 года назад

If I update each teams gf/g and ga/g from time to time will the model update accordingly?

@ehop66 3 года назад

Yes

@benwozniak4887 3 года назад

Regarding the tied scores, can you explain why you divide by 2? In this scenario, is that essentially saying each team has an equal chance to win in OT?

@ActionBackers 3 года назад

No, it’s simply that a tie benefits both teams equally but still needs to be factored into the equation. The raw % of all ties is the probability that the game goes to overtime. The raw probabilities of either team winning, not including tied outcomes is the probability they win in regulation.

@benwozniak4887 3 года назад

@@ActionBackers got it, makes sense. Thanks for the response!

@radaction5743 3 года назад

My opinion is yes. Action Backers handles this correctly. OT and SO are 50-50 propositions. If OT/SO are not exactly 50%, it's pretty close to it.

@bsd119 8 месяцев назад

Is there a way to incorporate starting goalies into my nhl model because i think that is an important factor

@vallixau 6 месяцев назад

Yeah thats what I was thinking

@basiliszag 3 года назад

Are you sure the double poisson fits actual hockey scores ?

@ActionBackers 3 года назад

Been doing this profitably for a long time, so yes, I’m sure. Feel free not to use it though, no bother to me.

@nicochee6505 2 года назад

I am assuming you would have to update the numbers for GF/AF 60 everyday?

@ActionBackers 2 года назад

Yes, but it’s easily automated

@nissen96 3 года назад

I only get an error message when trying to use the formula at: 10:05. Anyone else having the same problem? I’m trying to follow you but I seem to never get it right

@ActionBackers 3 года назад

Sounds like you’re not referencing a cell correctly or you’re forgetting a parenthesis or something. Could be a number of reasons you’re getting an error

@nissen96 3 года назад

Action Backers thank you

@joelsweet2302 3 года назад

Why do you suggest using stats to predict a team's score as opposed to using their actual scores?

@ActionBackers 3 года назад

Because scores aren’t predictive? I don’t understand the question

@joelsweet2302 3 года назад

@@ActionBackers You suggested using specific stats to produce a predicted score for a team, instead of using their actual average scores for a season. Are you implying that justify stats to predict a team's score can be more accurate than using past score data?

@ActionBackers 3 года назад

@@joelsweet2302 yes.

@chirbrizy44 2 года назад

He’s saying the way goals for and other metrics can use shots from certain areas and classify them as high quality scoring chances wen they rlly aren’t. So you can build your own rating system for where shots occur on the ice and give a better view of how many are actually good scoring chances n which aren’t for example.

@axelrod3698 3 года назад

Hey, I signed up for a month and am in the middle of creating my own model for soccer.I needed your help but for some reason I'm locked out of the Slack group.Any way I can PM you or you can PM me? I don't wanna give out my email for everyone to see.

@ActionBackers 3 года назад

Send me an email at info@actionbackers.com and I’ll get you sorted out!

@manuelantoniodanca9351 3 года назад

THIS MODEL REAR LONG TERM RESULTS?

@radaction5743 3 года назад

No. That's not possible. The poisson distribution is baked into the cake with respect to the betting market. Action Backers most likely uses this as one of many tools and as a starting point. He doesn't simply bet this blindly.