I'm in the SMB Capital DNA course. In the weekly review zoom call Justin explained Lance's V concept to me when identifying a support or resistance area. Since then I've been more consistent with my trade wins.
Great video. I did that exact trade on $WAL. Bought at $12 and sold in the high $26 range. I was on the left side of the v and basically had no stop loss. In my mind I did but to be realistic probably not. Huge risk! You nailed it. Thank you so much!
Thank you so much. By being exposed to this concept again in this video, I am really beginning to visualize this and can see the potential edge and relatively low risk trading the right side of the V. Much appreciated.
I'm quite good at "knife catching" when the structure deems it safe to do so. However, I've had more success letting the market show me it'll hold that zone, and then entering just above at a more minor level which shows acceptance back into some mean reversion centre.
One tip is start looking at your daily chart as a line chart, you can see the W's, V's, falling wedges etc.. I swing most of these now and typically want 3 weeks of consolidation but not always and measure most of these moves down. Pay attention to the break of monthly, weekly HI.Lows See $NSC, $GFS, $JNJ. $GD, $RTX and $QCOM have my attention right now.
Great video @TheOneLanceB ! In the last examples B also has less EV than A because the momentum traders who bought in A are Be/underwater, also the people who see the clear high are starting to short risking this one 😮 The best trades will never return to your entry point.
Great video. The changing probabilities underlies the problem with doing set-and-forget-style trade management. As the trade plays out, it is giving the trader new information that changes the probability of success and can be acted upon. For example if a breakout fails like in your ABC example, a wise trader can exit the position before price hits the stoploss and move on to another opportunity. A set-and-forget trader would lose all his risk plus slippage:
Thanks Mike n Lance. Great clip. On Part 1 I may add to have a "buy stop" in just above where you wish to enter along with Mark Douglas' old adage "each period (trade) in the market is unique..." Thks very much.
Thanks! I have been waiting for this video, I think most traders intuitively know this, yet, hard to put it in practice, lack of patience is the #1 culprit!
Doing this with options is another ball park. Contracts gain value after the turn. Less risk sometimes if you buy early in anticipation of the turn when they are cheap
Thanks again for the video, You're right. You get a retracement level more than fifty percent. The likelihood of that trade working is low, I think it was Jesse Livermore. That's sad. He didn't mind paying up for good stock. IE paying for confirmation
Gr8 vid lance. It makes sense on paper but for me in real time, I often find myself average bad prices when waiting for the turn and then get hammered or shaken out by HFT’s.. personally if I have strong conviction I like to wait for right side of the V with my entries but then add on the frontside when it drops or spikes.. maybe something to work on
I know Lance loves poker analogies. One very unique difference is that in poker if you fold to your opponents flop bet, you never know what your opponent had and you also don't know what the outcome (turn and river cards would be). However, in trading if you "fold" (exit a trade early or avoid a marginal trade) you still get to see the outcome!! Many fish in poker are calling stations because their curiosity gets the best of them and they must call to see their opponents cards.
I want to achieve growth at this level and I am going to achieve it with a resilient mindset, thanks to your online videos and videos on psychology by Mark Douglas. Tapping on beliefs that I have but are below my conscious threshold.
Break of Prior Bar HIghs (or lows).... but is that just any break or do you wait for the close of that breaking candle to confirm the trend change, since the break could reverse by the time the candle closes?
Most trades don’t give you a chance to get in on the right side even though this is a common knowledge in the trading communities we still enter on the left side no confirmation no safety net just a level, and that’s what trading is if you can’t see the levels you won’t make it along side with a stock selection
Thanks Lance, Love you videos so many golden nuggets on all your input. Would you only apply this strategy to stocks in play I often see down lives that reverse at some point during the day would this be a good idea or just stick with stocks in play. Also I know volume bottoms which is a certain criteria of the most volume on the day on a 5 minute chart and then about 3% off it’s highs has pretty good probability for an up move trimming along the way with final target Vwap. What are the best probability plays on these reversals that you have seen? Thanks again ! on excellent trading information really love Lances takes and SMB capitals material.
I agree that many people are considering NVDA as the "Stock of the year." However, I'm curious about which stocks could potentially become the next META in terms of growth over the next decade. I've allocated $200k for investment, looking for companies to make additions to boost performance
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to META, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
@@Donald-George A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
@@Owenra I just looked up Suzanne online and researched her accreditation. She seem very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Fin-market goals and scheduled a call
Hi Lance, like your videos ! Bit confused about EV(A)>EV(B)>EV(C) at 10:54 timecode in the video. looks like Point A will likely have more false breakouts than Point B....newbie here. Thanks!
Hard agree. I think he is referring to a higher time frame. On a low time frame like a 1 minute chart... That is a recipe for disaster. Fake breakouts galore. So I assume you need more confluence to identify a real breakout and false breakout. Seems like he is glossing over that fact probably due to that being a given for an experienced trader.
This just happened on the $SPY at 2:09pm. I missed the opportunity to get back in though on the right side of the V, because I started looking at other stocks after I finished trading the SPY earlier.
@@TradingWithHunter I'm looking at the 3 min now. I think you had 2:15 / 2:18 & 2:21 to get in if you wanted some profit on the upside of that V. $SPY.
Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2023, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680k savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
An obvious way to lnvest for a recession is to buy shares in businesses that are likely to experience steady demand even in a downturn. Typically, those are consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare companies, but off course such decisions cannot be made by an average Joe, a financial advisr is important in making this decisions
@@jonathanburtnick Such considerations can certainly have a role when I think about whether I ought to buy into a share. But I never purchase purely on that basis, i always have to seek the adv!ce of my financial-planner who has helped me gain $985k in a well-diversified portfoIio that has experienced exponential growth
@@naomigonzales9663 Great, I looked up Viviana Marisa Coelho online and researched her accreditation. She seem very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Fin-markt
Awesome video as always, could you guys please go into the nuances of this trade in a video that would be very helpful. lance has really helped in my trading and I'll be always grateful to the channel.
@@TheOneLanceB Well some of variables I can think of in mean-reversion trades are: some kind of catalyst that could cause an extreme move to either side, a capitulation move with volume extended than usual from the moving averages, move towards any kind of major support/resistance area from which it can bounce back, tape showing buyers/sellers stepping in after a huge capitulation move to the major support/resistance. I think the expected value of one setup makes it better than the other that depends on the combination of many factors coming together to form a trade.
@@stocksqna those are great examples. Those are some of the nuances that might make a trade better or worse. And exactly as you say, we ideally want as many variables on our side as possible. I have another video for release next week that dives ia bit more into some of the variables and others you mention. Like size of move, volume, length of any consolidation, etc
@@TheOneLanceB awesome man, thank you so much. My learning curve has reduced so much since I started following you and SNB videos. It's really awesome that someone is sharing so much stuff selflessly.
So great, just the usual, if the trader is subjected by account extinction through "death of a thousand cuts", oh well, the trader was not selective enough..
You need to have a solid fundamental stranding idea first and then you can think of a trade. The expected value is not possible to determine by chart patterns but it is always determined by a fundamental analysis of the micro and macro economic environment under consideration of geopolitical developments. If your fundamental idea is indeed good you can buy on the left side of the V like all the institutions do. If you have no fundamental idea then you shouldn’t be trading a stock, no matter what you see on the chart. This video proves once again that SMB is a bunch of con artists trying to catch naive retail traders.
the logical fallacy here is that you assume you know when the stock has turned. what info are you using to know/improve odds that it has turned my dude?
Not all of us have played poker. To better assist traders, it's essential to simplify your abstract conceptualizations. Otherwise, you risk defeating the very purpose you're trying to serve. Assume that people know nothing about what you're talking about.
