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How To Read Polls In 2024 | 538 Politics Podcast 

FiveThirtyEight
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We are in the frantic final weeks of the presidential campaign, which means Americans are obsessing over polling data more than usual. At 538, we cover this stuff year-round. So today on the show, we’re going back to the fundamentals. It doesn’t matter whether you’re a seasoned political hack or a bright-eyed newcomer: Everyone can benefit from our 10 Essentials Of Following Polls.
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28 сен 2024

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Комментарии : 94   
@kopias
@kopias 2 дня назад
I feel like Nathaniel doesn’t know what an 8 year old is
@mitchellmartin4580
@mitchellmartin4580 2 дня назад
Thankfully, I don't think many 8 year olds are listening in on this.
@zachjohnson9335
@zachjohnson9335 2 дня назад
Ah I remember using the words "demographics" as an 8 yr old
@kestrelpounces
@kestrelpounces День назад
I was thinking of inflicting this on my smart 15-year old, but I'm pretty sure that explanation will make his eyes glaze over 🤣 *I* found it good info tho! 🩵
@jackkazinsky290
@jackkazinsky290 2 дня назад
would be better with video
@AllenTaylor-q9e
@AllenTaylor-q9e 2 дня назад
Does anybody know how GAY Galen is? I really wanna know!!!
@CB38096
@CB38096 2 дня назад
@@AllenTaylor-q9e ask your dad
@AllenTaylor-q9e
@AllenTaylor-q9e 2 дня назад
@@CB38096 why would my dad know how gay Galen is?
@PhiltheMoko
@PhiltheMoko 2 дня назад
@@AllenTaylor-q9e like on a scale of 1 to 10?
@AllenTaylor-q9e
@AllenTaylor-q9e День назад
@@PhiltheMoko yes I really wanna know how gay he is
@bigredmer
@bigredmer 2 дня назад
I love this topic, but don't need to be hearing the bell sound every 30 seconds
@carrite
@carrite День назад
Someday maybe ABC will enter the 1990s and allow a video feed for this pod.
@soudaminipanda
@soudaminipanda 2 дня назад
Please also report the statistical power of the test.
@carrite
@carrite День назад
It's safe to assume almost all are using a 95% Confidence Interval.
@ph2417
@ph2417 2 дня назад
What happened to the video? The show is so much better when we can see the expressions of each speaker.
@AceGigalo
@AceGigalo 2 дня назад
Why is there no video? Set up a damn google meets call
@Henry-q4m8e
@Henry-q4m8e 2 дня назад
I'm 27yrs old. $73,000 biweekly and I'm retired, this video have inspired me greatly in many ways!!!!❤️
@moseshassan
@moseshassan 2 дня назад
I'm highly inspired. Please spill some sugar about the bi-weekly stuff you mentioned.
@Henry-q4m8e
@Henry-q4m8e 2 дня назад
I raised 75k and Christina Ann Tucker is to be thanked. I got my self my dream car 🚗 just last weekend, My journey with her started after my best friend came back from New York and saw me suffering in dept then told me about her and how to change my life through her. Christina A. Tucker is the kind of person one needs in his or her life! I got a home, a good wife, and a beautiful daughter. Note!:: this is not a promotion but me trying to make a point that no matter what happens, always have faith and keep living!!
@moseshassan
@moseshassan 2 дня назад
Wow 😱 I know her too Miss Christina Ann Tucker is a remarkable individual whom has brought immense positivity and inspiration into my life.
@Henry-q4m8e
@Henry-q4m8e 2 дня назад
I started with a miserly $1500. The results have been mind blowing I must say TBH!
@moseshassan
@moseshassan 2 дня назад
< I know that woman(Christina Ann Tucker) If you were born and raised in new York you'd know too, No doubt she is the one that helped you get where you are!!
@philosophersage
@philosophersage 2 дня назад
I remember in past election, the 538 model allowed for "calling" a state so that we could then see the conditional probability of a candidate winning given the results of some states. are there plans to do that again this year?
@j.s.c.4355
@j.s.c.4355 2 дня назад
I think they were allowing that earlier this year, but they changed it a couple of weeks ago.
@micahmcfarlane5303
@micahmcfarlane5303 День назад
check the article with the title "Explore The Ways Trump Or Harris Could Win The 2024 Election"
@philosophersage
@philosophersage День назад
@@micahmcfarlane5303 yup, that hit the spot, thank you
@jacksonmadison9994
@jacksonmadison9994 21 час назад
How to read the polls? Don't. Just listen to Allan Lichtman's election prediction.
@CB38096
@CB38096 2 дня назад
30:00 aw Nathaniel, I wish I could be this optimistic. I think the internet enables false realities so pretty sure this polarization is never going away. Not a coincidence we got this polarized with the rise of smartphones and social media
@miguelvelez7221
@miguelvelez7221 2 дня назад
Lynchings, voter disenfranchisement, violent strike breaking, mass protests and even political violence in American society ALL existed before smart phones. Do you really think any of this is new? That's a false comforting fiction. There was no golden "before time". They were killing Civil Rights activists and fire bombing churches in the 1960's. That wasn't polarization? I don't disagree that the reach of misinformation and biased, bigoted views is far wider today thanks to the Internet, but I'm sorry, there was never some "end of history" that we grew up in where American politics didn't have deep rancor festering throughout.
@falconnm
@falconnm 2 дня назад
14:50 description of margin of error. So far off, the so-called margin of error is the statistical chance of error based on the sample size. It does not include structural errors, such as whether the contact method or time of day favors a particular side. It also doesn't include shifts such as how likely a particular side is to turn out. Basically it's only the minimum amount of error, and any issues with the sample will increase it tremendously
@ChristopherLWeeks
@ChristopherLWeeks 2 дня назад
What kind of dinosaur do you have to be to answer the phone when someone calls? Also, I get texts all the time asking me to take a poll, but I assume they're really just some hostile org trying to collect marketing (or worse) information about me. How would I even try to participate in real polls if I wanted to do so without putting myself at risk?
@janaka861
@janaka861 2 дня назад
”Sometimes outliers are correct” - this is the definition of statistics. An outlier is just that - it will happen over time.
@j.s.c.4355
@j.s.c.4355 2 дня назад
And if the polls are consistent for a week or two, can you aggregate them and does that reduce the margin of error?
@forresthsu582
@forresthsu582 2 дня назад
Yes! That's what they mean when they recommend paying attention to the average
@oleonard7319
@oleonard7319 2 дня назад
averages don't work when you have partisan pollsters dumping tons of polls into the average. in 2022 they dumped 5 of these polls into for every good one that was in the average
@ZappBranniglenn
@ZappBranniglenn 2 дня назад
Here's my honest question about polling. Polls don't reach out for larger sample sizes because its expensive. But Pollsters are polling 24/7, releasing polls on an often weekly basis. Maybe twice a week if there's a big event like the party convention. Wouldn't a more accurate model be releasing a monthly poll with 4 times the sample size?
@masonm600
@masonm600 2 дня назад
Why dive into this? Bc there are only so many ways to say "it's still 50/50"
@stancal9249
@stancal9249 2 дня назад
Oofta. The "explain it like you would explain it to a child" portion kind of lost the plot of the bit 😂
@ACMFORALL
@ACMFORALL 2 дня назад
Always enjoy the analysis.
@SpencerOnYT
@SpencerOnYT 2 дня назад
Good work over the past 4 years team
@j.s.c.4355
@j.s.c.4355 2 дня назад
And if the polls are consistent for a week or two, can you aggregate them and does that reduce the margin of error?
@carrite
@carrite День назад
The assumption would have to be that all polls sample appropriately and identically, which is not the case.
@ckq
@ckq 2 дня назад
All this talk about this election is so annoying and repetitive, no matter what happens no one knows what's happening. Its been a tossup forever even back in 2020. I think we should collectively ignore polling until 1 candidate surpasses an 80% chance of winning then it may be relevant
@PhiltheMoko
@PhiltheMoko 2 дня назад
Why on earth are you here if you find talk about the election annoying? That's like going to a sports bar and complaining about all these people talking about football all the time.
@sle81
@sle81 2 дня назад
NYT has NOT been accurate in any way in the past. Lol
@kestrelpounces
@kestrelpounces День назад
This was so helpful! This morning a pundit was celebrating the new Bloomberg poll and i paused and said "OK, but what is the poll quality? I wonder how 538 rates it!" I'd like to get excited but I won't be 2016ed again if I can help it! 🩵
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