How To Trade 0DTEs After Lunch

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11 сен 2024

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Комментарии : 86

@chezblunts 2 месяца назад

If you're limited by the PDT rule and are trading SPX, buy a butterfly instead of selling an iron fly. This way you can get around the PDT rule by just selling to open the opposite side of the butterfly you bought (sell a put butterfly if you bought a call butterfly and vice versa).

@markschellhammer4663 6 месяцев назад

I looked at SPX from Dec 20 through Feb 23. Took the open at CST noon and the 3:00 close, and recorded the difference. Up or down. Out of 46 trading days, the market closed less than the $20OTM SS only 78% of the time. To recap, the closing price was 24 days at $10 or below, 10 days at 20-29.99, 5 days at 30-39.99, 1 day at 40-49.99, and 1 day at $50+. So 78% of the time you get full credit. But 22% of the time you closed greater than $20otm. So you suffered some sort of small gain or major loss. The partial or full losses would heavily outweigh the small gains from the premium received. Unless I've made a wrong assumption?

@andyianno6637 6 месяцев назад

They only use the last 11 months for analysis. During this period the vix has generally been low and decreasing, which is why the results are excellent. If they only had such granular data even from 2022 (they don't even need to go to 2020 at the pandemic) the results would be much worse as according to your statistical analysis. By the way, I think the '10-19.99' range is missing and I didn't understand #46. Thank you.

@markschellhammer4663 6 месяцев назад

@@andyianno6637sorry. 10-19.99 was 10. 0-9.99 was 24. So the $20 SS was safe on only 34 of the 46 days. The other 12 days the SS was breached. Of those 12 days 5 stayed under 30, 5 stayed under 40 (the limit of a $20SS with a $20 wing). One was 42 and the largest difference was one at 79. Full losses on those two.

6 месяцев назад

You haven't; my analyses are giving the same figures. I would seriously doubt anything their analyst has to say or any of the numbers they put up. This strategy is a demonstrably losing proposition.

@tremaynesimoneaux5671 6 месяцев назад

No, you’re thinking about it right. You really have to guard against a major or total loss which would wipe out weeks of small wins.

@frozenyetimug 4 месяца назад

They've got a video about stop losses which is ( in my opinion) very important to minimize the big losses

@richydubz4302 6 месяцев назад

The only thing confusing is that you're talking about $20 OTM short strikes and buying the $20+ further out wings but on 02/20 SPX opened at 4985 so Tom went $10 OTM on the call side of 4995 but then the put side was 4950. One is $10 OTM on open and the other is $35? What am I missing.

@ryanwelch2115 6 месяцев назад

Remember that they are trading at 9:30am CST/10:30am EST, so the market had been open for an hour at that time. Tom put the trade order in when SPX was trading around $4972. The put spread was short $4950/long $4930. The call spread was short $4995/long $5015. See 7:26. Of course, why he doesn't wait until the afternoon is beyond me, since that was the whole point of this video.... :)

@jimmyeanes8102 2 месяца назад

Greate content like always. I'm going to give a iron condor O DTE here soon. My iron flies are work in progress but have been profitable.

@NOFATE02 6 месяцев назад

I just pulled this off today, cheers guys!

@ehk8029 4 месяца назад

How has it worked so far?

@howardpritchardjr7488 6 месяцев назад

Well needed talk! Thank you guys!

@user-ht7jt2gr5j 6 месяцев назад

I trade 0 DTE ICs everyday. 6:07 is a rock solid strategy. By the way, you guys are more chill than teenage kids. Keep it like this forever 😂

@fiercelogic6973 6 месяцев назад

Do you use the $20 OTM IC around 1pm EST? Do you work exit order or let expire? Would you see any value in using Delta to pick strikes vs. $20 OTM. Thanks in advance if able to respond.

@user-ht7jt2gr5j 6 месяцев назад

@@fiercelogic6973 I trade 0 DTE ICs not necessarily at 12 PM CST as this video covers. But this will be a nice & very profitable addition to existing daily trades that I will add soon. 1. My ICs are opened right at the Market Open. 2. I got the Strikes from a paid service (group called SOS alerts). The strikes given by the service have been pretty. From the beginning of Jan 2024. Their stikes were breached 3-4 times. It was all profitable for rest of the days.

@user-ht7jt2gr5j 6 месяцев назад

@fiercelogic6973 my replies keep getting deleted posting 2nd time to see if it comes through this time.

@user-ht7jt2gr5j 6 месяцев назад

@fiercelogic6973 --- 1. My ICs are open right at the Market Open. I receive the strikes from a paid service (SOS alerts). Their strikes have been pretty good with about 90% success rate 2. Since I open ICs in the morning & monitor all day, I know the IC approach mentioned at 6:00 makes lot of sense. It should be a good one to follow. I would recommend 20 OTM with 10 wide ICs and avoiding placing orders on major news days like FOMC days. Hope that answers! Hope this gets posted.

@ryanwelch2115 6 месяцев назад

@@fiercelogic6973 They let the trades expire, according to the research presented. You can, however, put close orders in place if you want. The data says to be mechanical, though: trade from 1:00-1:10 EST and let them expire. I've been doing $20-$25 OTM Iron Condors, with $20 wings. I'm 7 for 7 since watching this video and executing the strategy. Today, I will go for #8. I will say that it helps to not watch the market if you're going to let them expire haha. It's funny, though, because in the video, Tom executes the trade at 9:30am CST/10:30am EST...but that's not the research and I'd argue that it's a more risky trade, since there is more time for the market to move + or - $20 points. Also, be prepared for this strategy to lose 1 out of 10 times, according to the research presented. Finally, I don't anticipate this trade to work forever, but it's great when volatility is low during the day (intraday).

@NathanMills1 6 месяцев назад

I've been doing this for several weeks now and have had only one loss day.

@alexandermorabito9968 6 месяцев назад

I have also been doing this last couple weeks. roughly mid day trade, close around 10-15% profit, ive won about 24/25 trades so far

@swapniljunnarkar2762 6 месяцев назад

How much initial credit are you receiving? I just did backtest around 1 pm CT and the credit looks like .49 on a 10 wide. So risk to reward seems very low.

@swapniljunnarkar2762 6 месяцев назад

How much did you lose on that day?

@ehk8029 4 месяца назад

How has it worked so far?

@harshahc1 2 месяца назад

⁠@@swapniljunnarkar2762 Let me know if you like to discuss on this strategy. I have been working on this as well

@Adamabbas-o4w Месяц назад

what happens if the iron condor was in the money (only 1 leg in the sell side ) and expires?

@tradingmedic 6 месяцев назад

I ran this through my backtester and could find nothing close to this result. Completely indistinguishable from random.

@tremaynesimoneaux5671 6 месяцев назад

I have done this IC trade every day this week (4 days because Mon was a holiday). I have gone at least 20, sometimes 25 OTM and only 10 wide, putting the trade on by 12:30 CST. It has worked all week-but not without giving you a scare almost every day. I think this trade should work and be a somewhat reliable way to make a buck or two daily as long as Vol is somewhat stable and there’s no big news that is being digested in those 2-3 hours till the close. I’ll continue to use it along with 1day, weeklies, and 45DTE. But I will be watching close for spike in VOL or swing in gen market conditions which could make this trade a death trap and a quick way to lose a couple K.

@tremaynesimoneaux5671 6 месяцев назад

Update-I’ve done this trade 12 times now. Never less than 20otm, usually 25 or 30. Always allowed to expire end of day. 100% wins so far but with a couple close calls. I would have thought I would have had to manage a few by now to salvage but not so far. All I can say is watch your back-any sudden vol could hang a max loss on you super quick.

@NOFATE02 6 месяцев назад

I coudlnt agree more, ive been doing it too, 15-25 OTM - its worked every time but there has been some scares along the way. One issue ive ran into is I cant get a fill on entry or exit. I had alot of issues with that this week. Ill keep trying next week. Have you seen this issue?

@tremaynesimoneaux5671 6 месяцев назад

@@NOFATE02 yes, I’ve found that I often have to go off the midpoint, giving up a few cents from midpoint in order to get a quick fill. I count it as slippage. Willing to give up the few cents to get in and out when I want.

@j.a.rangel6483 5 месяцев назад

A q@@tremaynesimoneaux5671

@kitana097 6 месяцев назад

i would love to see an example of a trade on the screen. I can't figure out what you guys are doing talking about the trade

@synestheticview 6 месяцев назад

Love this. So far, so good.

@Pengkui 6 месяцев назад

How about just selling naked strangles on XSP (if SPX is too large undefined risk trades)?

@SW-wn6xz 6 месяцев назад

The $20 OTM slide makes no sense. Do you guys mean you went an extra 10 or 20 beyond where you sold?

@alexandermorabito9968 6 месяцев назад

Its an Iron condor. So $20 out of the money. Then the wings are $10 wide. or $20 wide. If SPX is at 5000. Would be selling the put at 4980, then buying the wings at 4970/4960. Hope that helps

@ShellyHuSeattle 6 месяцев назад

Thanks very much!

@betsyfortenberry8964 6 месяцев назад

Makes sense since Theta decay is the strangest near the end if expiration.

@anirbansahavlogs Месяц назад

why after lunch?

@ShellyHuSeattle 6 месяцев назад

Very interesting, but not understand well. Could you please post a link to study the trading material?

@sanbetski 5 месяцев назад

Sure

@imhemzy9542 4 месяца назад

I did the $10 OTM and $10 Long wings, just lost a huge amount. Didnt work for me, shouldve done the $20 wide wings

@frozenyetimug 4 месяца назад

Nothing wrong with using a stop loss on this strat.

@snowrhapsody 6 месяцев назад

Selling $20 OTM Iron Condors, with 20 wide wings, doesn't seem to give me that as much credit as what Tom is getting. I am getting around $150 in credit, not $420 credit like how Tom got. Not sure what I have done wrong.

@frowe2049 6 месяцев назад

Guys, maybe read the slides ahead of time?

@cheftipp 6 месяцев назад

Do they close the trade at market close or let them expire/assign?

@NOFATE02 6 месяцев назад

You can close before market close or if your legs are OTM you can let it expire worthless and you’ll receive full credit

@Alexadria205 6 месяцев назад

You don't get assigned on spx options. It's all cash settled.

@ryanwelch2115 6 месяцев назад

They let the trades expire, according to the research presented. You can, however, put close orders in place if you want. The data says to be mechanical, though: trade from 1:00-1:10 EST and let them expire. I've been doing $20-$25 OTM Iron Condors, with $20 wings. I'm 7 for 7 since watching this video and executing the strategy. Today, I will go for #8. I will say that it helps to not watch the market if you're going to let them expire haha. Also, be prepared for this strategy to lose 1 out of 10 times, according to the research presented. Finally, I don't anticipate this trade to work forever, but it's great when volatility is low during the day (intraday).

@caiobortoli 6 месяцев назад

3:15 research team must have died in this one haha they meant ATM butterfly, 10$ OTM iron condor and 20$ iron condor. The width of their wings being 10, 20 or 30$.

@TRADERJEJ 6 месяцев назад

Haha you are so smart you don't know what an ironfly is!

@caiobortoli 6 месяцев назад

@@TRADERJEJ dude, even if I din't know (which I do). Look at the next slides after the timestamp I put. The research team meant they were testing flies ATM and condors 10$ OTM and 20$ otm. Each of them with different wings width (10, 20 and 30$ width wings). Tom got it wrong when reading the slides. P.s.: an ironfly is still a butterfly

@jayantsharma7072 6 месяцев назад

So what are you trading?

@johnq.public2621 6 месяцев назад

😃👍👏👏👏

@Tha.Black.Profit 6 месяцев назад

That’s CVoR?

@absolutebosscollective8202 4 месяца назад

I’ve watched you trade 😂

@EzekielPrellus 6 месяцев назад

"10 dollar wings for SPX? You mean, e.g. a 4095/5000/5005 fly? That is throwing darts on a dartboard. That product is too big to trade such a narrow fly.

@user-ht7jt2gr5j 6 месяцев назад

The next slide talk at 6:00 talk about the Iron Condors profits why not play that which is not lot more profitable.

@marcmini8137 6 месяцев назад

"we havnt gone anywhere" spx went from 3800 to 5100 in 11 months ur kidding right?

@RainyDayz 6 месяцев назад

Haha right! Exactly what I was thinking, Tom and the “research” team must be cooked 😂

@Focusing1234 6 месяцев назад

True within day range. Most big moves premarket.

@paulshin8646 6 месяцев назад

We went from 4800 to 5100 in 2 years.

@user-ht7jt2gr5j 6 месяцев назад

@marc --- you are right for over months. Tom & Tony are right for the intraday movement. Especially for the time range they are mentioning after 12 PM CST.

@fuzzyboomboom9742 6 месяцев назад

Look at the daily ATR for SPX, it cratered thru the 2nd half of 2023 and is still low in 2024, down below 45 pts. When they say the market hasn't going anywhere, that's what they're talking about. Lots of traders trade iron flys after the first 60-90 minutes, which is where the market moves most often.

@northwestrider369 2 месяца назад

I’m not sure who did this data. But I’ve done $30+ OTM iron condors on SPC 0DTE in the afternoon just as this says and blown up my account. Multiple times in the last year. I am fortunate enough to have used spare money and reset each time. But the way this market has moved, this set of slides came be right. You do a $30 OTM condor for $1000 basically, you need 8-10 wins in a row for every loss. No way of their average P/L $140. I don’t believe it. Not based on my own real world losses and experience over the same time period.

@realestate_sc 2 месяца назад

The presentation seemed vague on how to manage them to achieve those results. If you let them expire you could end up in the whole somewhere in the 10x your credit in some circumstances. Seems like a stop loss needs to be implemented with this strategy.