There is a slight error on one of the screenshots in the video. I went onto the Betfair website to create lay by liability but created a lay by payout instead. Sorry about that! I don't use the Betfair website to trade, just Bet Angel. So sorry that this error crept in. You can see my lay to liability also in this video - ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-Gvu7wO90Fwo.html It's very easy to set a lay to liability on Bet Angel. Just set liability staking and an amount and Bet Angel will do it all for you!
This is the best video so far you made on this channel. Clear, clever and effective. In other videos you remain too much on the generic side of the discussion. Thanks for sharing.
Hi Peter, great video. The potential flaw I suppose would be that you are only taking a £5 loss when all 20 matches are played to their conclusion without any intervention. When you start trading out in play, there will be times when you are settling for less profit which will increase the overall loss that needs to be covered. For example, the favourite may lose the first set and you trade out assuming that they will come back and win. You are settling for a lot less than if this match was one of the 25% of times that the favourite does actually go on to lose the whole match. So now there is more overall loss to cover than the original £5. I understand the opportunities are there to virtually always trade out in profit but unless you're timing is good, the loss could also be much greater than the original £5 due to exiting in play and prematurely missing out on those larger payouts?
It's a classic trading issue. If you cut out for a small profit the whole expectancy becomes unbalanced. So you have to ensure you pitch your exit at a sensible price. But Tennis trader will help you define where the key points of upside and downside are. The key point I was trying to make here is if you let all run a loss, you lose very little, yet are presented with many opportunities to get enough profit to overcome that. You don't know how difficult it was for me not to close a trade while running this experiment. I knew all I needed was one or two to pay off, which would cover all the others. But I let them run, so I could use the data in this video. I should have put the P&L as well in hindsight.
Thank you for the video! It's a wealth of information and I suppose it's only natural you'd at least mention the benefits of Tennis Trader. You replied to a number of comments insisting it's better to green out at certain points of the much rather than when the price hits a certain value. While I agree that it's useful to know in advance what price the players will be at in all the various scenarios, you still won't be able to predict with a degree of certainty that, say, the favourite will go a break down or a set and a break down. And even if your plan is to either take a loss or take the profit corresponding to the underdog being a certain number of points/games ahead, would it still not be wiser to place your order at that corresponding price. You gave the example of a favourite's odds shooting up when he seemed injured and if you set up your automation to only exit when the underdog is leading, you could potentially miss such opportunities, couldn't you?
Brilliant video and has really got me itching to use this improving my strategies - especially using a fixed liability on lay bets, which I have never used. Out of interest did you have any criteria for selecting those 20 matches? For example, all had a favourite under 1.50 odds? Or was it completely random?
Very informative video. I have a few takeaways from the video and was wondering if you could confirm I understood the video correctly. 1. Used fixed stakes to reduce risk and variance in the results. I.e. you’ll always lose £2 per game but your upside is unlimited. 2. The betting odds are extremely efficient, i.e 6.0 to 16.7%. So that bet will lose 84% of the time if left to run over the long term but what it doesn’t show is the variance during the game in which you could trade out for a profit. 3. So if you bet at random and leave it all to the end of the game, you should break even. But because you have a big upside, you need to record a small profit at one of the various points to trade out in order to overcome that small loss if we left it all in to the end?
For example, let's say you lay on average the favorite at 1.80 (in [1.7 ;1.9] range) , and would expect as exit point him to have one break deficit in set 1, at around 2.60, it would mean on average you would lay 10/(1.8-1) = 12.5 € for a 10 € liability stake on average, When the exit point is reached, you win 31% of your stake 12,5 € = 3.87 € and when it's not you loose 10 € =, which means you need to find favorites to be one break deficit in set 1 at least 72 % of times to start being profitable (even slightly more because of Betfair fees on winning trades). Tell me if you agree Peter !
Thanks for another informative video Peter. Just wondering though, isn't the women's game more volatile in terms of breaks of serve and therefore potentially have more chances for trading out in profit?
Beautiful scenery ! Unique video. However as usual, the trick is, when to cash out :) Your list shows not only apprx. 100% ROI but on many occassions the profits are very tiny so i guess reading a match would be part of the success, no ? Coz...how on earth would i know when to cash out :) What would you tell someone who would like to follow your advice ? Go for 5%, 10% profit ?
You are making it far too complex there. You would trade out on a break of server, or a near break. Or when a set is won. It's that simple. I did cover that in this video - ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-kl4gSPZJlgo.html
Hi Mark, Generally speaking, I give away all my training for free. I'm too busy trading to be able to scale to an individual level. So I prefer to just publish stuff in this manner for everybody to view if they wish. We have the forum where we all chat or the academy where I group all this content together.
Great video as always Peter. Thanks for this. I've been tinkering with a similar idea for a while myself, however if you could give me a pointer on your potential exits in these matches that you showcased would be much appreciated. When would you cash out in these hypothetical scenarios? 1 to 1 revard to risk, or would you wait for a change in momentum, like break or end of set? Thanks for the answer in advance and thanks for the video again.
Hi I’m watching the video but I don’t understand in the 10:07 of the video, I don’t understand how you made 130.08£ either way if one of them losses or wins the match, can you explain me?
Great video Peter. I have a cpuple of questions please. What percentage profit of stake would you look to lock in and trade out?? I would typically try and get 10% so on a max liability of £10 I would set profit at £1 per match and after 20 matches net profit would be £10 right? Or is 10% to much to achieve a 95% strike rate? I still think more careful selections will be needed ?
I based all my exit points on where a break or possible break of serve will be and where in the set it occurs. If you have Bet Angel, Tennis trader will tell you this information.
@@betangeltvThank you Peter. I will check it out. Im not to tech savy with all the many fascinating features of the software. Im just getting to grips with the ladder interface and various options available. Im very old school. I trade the finacials too. I just look at the chart and try to find support and resistance points and trade price action. Trying to use this knowledge on an exchange platform is taking some getting used to. But your advanced charting is very helpful 👌 🙂
Brilliant video 😀..👍. I think would be good to have an accumilative running P&L . Otherwise gets a bit confusing as to how one would predict a Total accumilative loss of £5 on 20 events that haven't been played yet . Most people will not get how laying by liability exposes the effeciency of the market. AND also , the first approach was an outright bet , which in this case was used to expose the effeciency of the market BUT you are asking punters to become traders and exploit the inefficiency of an otherwise efficient outcome.
6:55 Hi Peter. Have you got the ratio stats for Pre off Horse Racing regarding how often the price goes into profit say in the last 10mins pre off for the fav of you were to lay the fav 10mins out?
Yes, it's 50/50 more or less. Pre-off racing is different. Prices in some markets tend to hunt a price, but in handicaps, for example, they meander. See the video on handicap races for some more detail.
Why doesn't what you say make sense to me? If you cash out in-play just because you're in profit the optional stopping theorem applies meaning that on average, nothing can be gained by stopping based on the information obtainable so far (i.e., without looking into the future). In your example in order to get a positive long term expected value you have to cash out only if the odds at which you can do so indicates that the market is inefficient i.e. back price represents value.
That is what trading is, but trading delivers a total return from your entire time in the market and is result independant. But betting is a binary payoff based on the final outcome. Trading is betting, but betting isn't trading.
You’re right I have just started the free trial of betangel, as soon as I finish I’ll quickly subscribe. I stopped myself from doubting the prospect of trading for a living, I think the best approach is to start and take it slowly while learning the vital lessons. Thank you for endless sharing of valuable knowledge.
If you are starting out, expect things to be tough while you learn to trade and come to terms with what that means. Quite a lot of people lose money when they start and quit before they actually learn how to do it properly. If you have the right expectation setting out, then it's much more likely you will succeed.
Hi Peter, what’s a good example of correct staking, off the top of my head I would imagine that you would increase the staking size the lower the odds are I.e 2.0 evens. And the higher the odds you would decrease the stake, good rule of thumb?
If you lay to liability on Bet Angel it will do it all for you. Lower odds mean higher payoff, but less certain outcomes will automatically get lower stakes. This is why it works so well.
I’ve watched this 4 times now and set up a simple automation on BETDAQ. I use the Favs if between 1.45 and 1.90 and lay to lose let’s say £100. I have a green all subject to profit reaching £25. I’ve tried differing profit figures ie £50 and £100. I’ve applied the rule to as many matches that are being played and I’m pleased as it is doing very well. The BIG question is …. Would you have figures or suggest an amount I should look to make from each match before greening out. It’s frustrating when the Fav gets beat and ive got let’s say £34 ( always gets me more than £25) and I would of won possibly £150. The obvious downside and loses £100 is when the Fav just shortens and wins the match. I would be very interested on your comments.
If you use Bet Angel's Tennis trader this will tell you what price the market will reach given certain scenarios and that will optimise your exit point.
Peter from your 20 match profit graphs what was the average percentage green you could expect ?? + 10% + 25% ?? Also can you add a link to the forum please where i can find out how to produce the profit graphs please from my betangel trades
I've added a link to the profit graph that was created by a user on our forum - forum.betangel.com/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=16632 You exit at key points within the match, not with an arbitrary percentage exit. You can automate this process.
Hi Peter I was wondering if you filtered the matches to where the fav is no less than say 1.7 or 1.8 pre match and then trade out for say 20 percent profit would that work.
Your entry and exit will be based on key points in the match. Not percentages, use Tennis trader to find these keys points. More competitive matches are much more likely to get matched, but the yield will be lower than uncompetitive matches.
This has totally confused me , if you have layed the favourite for £10 in each match in a two horse race then your profit from each match can not be higher than £10 because you only win the backers stake money if the fav loses and you pay the liability to the backer which is related to the price that you have layed at when the bet was matched. If i laid a horse i am backing it to lose i.e. a lay bet for £100 it doesn't matter what odds the backer gets, i can only win £100. Essentially i am the bookie who is only winning stake money. Also i thought cashing out was the backers choice and not you as the layer ? And surely your cash out can be no more than £10 if that is your maximum profit from each lay bet because as the layer you can only win his stake. If the backers bet is winning why would he accept your cash out for less then his potential profit? Please forgive me Peter if I have got this wrong but as I said I am totally confused. Thank you
You are laying to a fixed liability, but as a result, you get a potentially much higher payoff. So £10 liability at 1.01 gives you a potential £1000 profit if they lose.
@@betangeltv thanks for replying Peter, just 1 more question, where is this profit coming from if you are the layer ? Thank you for your time I know your a busy man
Not really, no. I mean all trading strategies are linked in a way., but the payoff and structure on racing doesn't lend itself to a strategy like this.
No, the markets tend to be efficient at any one point in time. But they offer many opportunities to trade out at a profit when trading and that is where the opportunity is. You get to fix your risk, but the payoff is always much higher.
please explain - at 2 min 35sec on the djokovic example - is the liability £2.80 and not £10? would you not be laying £35 to give you a £10 liability? You seem to be confusing payout and liability on the lay bet - or am I missing something basic here.
I didn't check the screenshot before inserting it into the video and in fact, that is creating a £10 payout, not a liability. I shouldn't have trusted the Betfair website to display the number I wanted, so that is my error. I use Bet Angel to stake to liability.
@@betangeltv thank you Peter! i was sure i hadn't grasped the basics here! great video as usual and i am going to tackle some short priced tennis favourites today to small stakes to get a feel for it.
Excellent video. Clearly explained. How do you deal with the fact you could hit your stop loss ' before ' achieving your predetermined profit target ? The example shows that a profit could have been achieved only if waiting long enough for it to occur. Let's say you'd planned to cash out if hitting £1 profit ( 19/20 in your example ) , all trades could have hit £1 loss ' 'before' price then goes out so you'd still be losing over the 20 bets ( loss of £20 theoretically ) . Thanks.
You would exit at a key point in the match. A break up, a set up or some defined criteria like that. That way you can frame the trade correctly and give yourself the chance of maximising any profit.
I don't understand how you traded out a losing position for 0.70. Why did you never lose the full £10 on any matches when you said that not all were profitable at some point? 7:24 where did that 60.37 win come from? if you didn't trade out during the match... not trading out is gambling isn't it?
So the spreadsheet is comparing what would have happened if you let each bet stand as a bet, or what could have happned if you traded out your position. It's taking the extreme of both, to show you how little an edge you need to be profitable.
Can you give a similar example for football? A situation where if things go wrong you wouldnt lose a huge part of your stake or the whole stake, and where there are multiple opportunities to lock in a profit ?
Thanks for this video it gave me an epiphany, but raised a question. You used a random selection method - if there was potential for profit in 95% of the games, what effect would a good selection method have? If the market is efficient what difference would it make? Would it equate to more than 95% of games having profit potential?
Market selection will improve your results. I've studied hundreds of thousands of matches to understand why some end up the way they do. So the harder you work, the better your results.
to beat the market you need to have some kind of information that isnt reflected in the price... I will leave to you to decide how easy is to achieve this on high liquidity markets
@@betangeltv why would you disagree? the average person cant beat the sports betting markets. You need to put a lot of work in to find where the inefficiencies are
No, you only need to cash out one decent trade to cover all potential losses. Nearly all matches ended up with the possibility to profit, so in most you would never had a full £10 liability.
@@betangeltv - Peter, if one was to automate this, any ideas where to set the take profit as each market would be different. Is there a magic formulae ?
How did you lose £59 on one of them if you laid the favourites for £10? And why am I the only one who's noticed that? ;) Edit. Looking again you backed the outsider, not laid the favourite. Yes? But you clearly say you laid the favourite. Edit 2: How did you win £12 on one of them if you're backing the outsider?
