It's also what you might look like when you are a hedge fund founder but you dare to think creatively and independently vs. spewing the usual hyper-partisan, coordinated and reptilian lies to gather assets your whole career. This is not to say that he didn't under perform or isn't enjoying his retirement in St. Barth's and/or perhaps a bit too much. But the world doesn't need another "objective" bully or CPA Level III "seeking alpha". Best wishes to Hugh.
I've listened to Hugh talk to Rao Paul of Real Vision, and the guy is kind of off his rocker. I'd take this all with a grain of salt. As an aside, the reason low rates and QE isn't stimulative is at some point, banks don't want to lend when their cost of capital is greater than their return of capital. By lending, they would be losing money. That's basically what's going on in Japan.
Chaos could be achieved simply by the cessation of QE globally and letting interest rates be determined by market forces. In the present circumstances, governments and central banks will avoid this scenario at all costs. take care Robert W. M'cCoy
This was the rational approach 30 years ago. Housing would be affordable. College would be affordable. Rents would be affordable. All of this would make the bottom 50% a low wealthier in real terms than today. Retirees would not have to be unwilling leveraged landlords (pushing real estate prices even higher) and stock market speculators into their 70s. Now we are too far gone. Imagine the 10 year at 6 or 7% the USA would be bankrupt.
Can someone here explain to me, he said "Fed is not printing money, it's increasing central bank reserves" Does he mean the liquidity the US Fed injects into US banks eventually all end up in Central Banks of major countries like EU, Japan and China? The US eventually exports its domestic inflation, that doesn't mean there isn't inflation right? I mean just because US economy can absorb the inflation, dollar inflation still adds to other countries' domestic inflation... Or am I not getting what Hendry is saying?
The printing of money (quantitative easing) does not necessarily result in inflation. The Chicago Monetarist theory was always a bit flaky. Inflation is solely caused by demand exceeding supply and in the Covid19 world we have now with mass unemployment, demand will be very low.
Good to hear a finance guy who understands the dangers of society snapping due to the inequality of the current monetary agreements. When social order breaks down due to obvious inequities, it won't matter how much money is in your account.
You'll be proven wrong. The only reason he can put forward this argument is the dollar is the reserve currency, pure and simple. Just give it 5 to 10 years.
Everybody fears deflation and want some inflation. Well, be careful what you wish for, because you might just get it. Inflation is not the panacea everybody think it is. Inflation is not necessarily associated with growth, as we have seen during the 70's. There is a huge difference between the Fed printing money and giving it to the banks who are basically just sitting on it, or diverting it to the stock market, and the Fed printing money and handing it to the treasury, which is handing out checks to people, so they can go out and spend. The former had no impact on velocity, the latter will.
An absolutely great book....the 4th turning. What if all High School seniors in the United States or all college business students were required to read it? Would our world be better or worse off?
QE and printing will not cause inflation as long as it doesn't trickle down. As income gap increases, deflation will increase as people are left with less money to buy the produced goods and services.
Agree. The printing of money (quantitative easing) does not necessarily result in inflation. The Chicago Monetarist theory was always a bit flaky. Inflation is solely caused by demand exceeding supply and in the Covid19 world we have now with mass unemployment, demand will be very low.
Inflation comes after the bust. BUT since we're talking about modern america, middle and lower class will not see the uptick, and maybe inflation won't happen because, despite covid being defeated (someday), the average american won't even tell the difference. Happened 10 years ago, might happen again.
As they say, those on the bottom usually benefit from projecting higher status and those on the top benefit from hiding their status and projecting lower image.
he does have a point. The Fed can't keep up the status quo for much longer. The bull market will continue for 2-3 years but with asset price inflation leaving Main Street behind, something will have to give..........We just don't know what.
So I bought a bottle of Powerade the other day for about a buck. It used to be 32 ounces. Now it is 28ounces. This is how manufacturers deal with inflation. They don't raise the price they just give you less.
The trick is to try and increase the velocity of money. The price is irrelevant as long as its kinda stable. You want the people in the economy to be busy earning and spending, not saving and waiting.
Living on the Pacific Northwest waterfront where one of the strongest of public waterway advocates reside...the government here turned management of the seaside to a private agency to decide how the public mandate is enforced. This became the way for the waterfront to be chopped up into hotels, condos, and restaurants without public scrutiny and citizen comments. This is also how the Federal Reserve operates without comment from the people.
Another piece of this puzzle is technology is highly deflationary, this offsets the areas of the economy that are inflationary. For example 20 years ago I needed to buy a map in order to get to where I wanted to go if I went to a new town. Now I just use Google Maps which is free. A lot of this is missed by the main streeters. People like hugh hendry understand it so well intuitively, they do not discuss it in interviews like this. When is the last time you bought a map? How much money do you or your family spend yearly on screen Time Entertainment versus 20 years ago? Huge deflationary factors with technology. The flip side is Healthcare is going up 15 to 20% or more depending on where you live each year.
Wow, rubbish, this guy is very misguided. The FED literally created dollars in the system no matter what way you think about it. They had to create the dollars or bonds and trade them into stocks and other bonds, the point is that they are inflating. They did not create value. Of course you see the inflation in the USD chart last, just like you see the US economy turn into just two classes last. The cost of living going up 3x compared to wages is the best metric I think. The bailouts go to the monoplolys which run everything including the banks and infinite supply of money and who gets elected indirectly by funding their candidates infinitely. Just #buybitcoin and quit trying to think so much pal
Inflation is not under control, it's at all time highs, it's just not in the consumer goods prices ..... It's the asset prices that are inflated.... Raise interest rates, and watch everything go back to normal.
@@tex346 "Wrong?" - I didn't propose a conspiracy theory or any statement of fact, but I did post an opinion which you declare invalid whilst muck-spraying your "liberty" bs into my retinas. So, to get _your_ liberty you must have your alphabet *thugs* commit crimes on your behalf and take the liberty of others? Despicable.
So the FED buying up assets and having a balance sheet to infinity all while artificially lowering rates (no rational person would lend the US government money at no return) is bringing prosperity to the average person?
Chaos is natural, and when you try to suppress it it will only come out as a bigger chaos. They say the road to hell is paved with good intentions or the other version where hell is full of good meanings, but heaven is full of good works.
So our society remains together ? Man what Planet do you come from ? My Aussie Society has been totally divided my entire life ! We call it Multi Culture . which is them against us .
A few years ago, i watched an interview with Marc Cuban in which he said something that i thought was totally crazy at the time.......he said that future business leaders and top entrepreneurs would be well versed in Liberal Arts (i took it as eccentric mind set). After studying many interviews with Charlie Munger and this Hugh Hendry.........i think i am understanding Mr. Cubans comment. We need Cuban as a presidential candidate. If not in 2020, in 2024.
Well that was clear. Two cups of bluster, a pait of designer glasses and a pinch of Joe Rogan. How illuminating. Why try to calculate whether the Fed has printed money? For a start, the term "printed money" is ambiguous, but aside from that what does the Fed say about it? And WTF is quantitative easing if it's not "printing money"?
just a perma bear that never understood the effect of QE on asset prices, especially equities. sad. his performance was dire bar 2008. i hope his mental health has improved and stays positive.
But then wouldn't that cause the dollar to lose the credibility for safe haven n increase the force against dollar as a reserved currency as China and many other countries have been trying to change?
M2 money is issued from the FED when they make their coupon payments, issue a "stimulus" or when banks make loans (It's not borrowed direct from other accounts). It is debt and is worth-less YoY when compared to housing valuations or CIA/government black ops budgets, for example. facebook.com/AnonymousLegionWarriors/videos/heroin-guarantees-cia-black-ops-budget-boost/2011648169072086/
I think the interviewer and interviewee are the same guy here. One with a wild wig and one with a wild shave. They look so much alike!!! beyond that - amazing points!!!
