Here is the math behind it :D This opening: 78 capsules Previous opening: 120 capsules 0.64% chance per capsule (100/0.64 = 1 gold sticker in 156.25) This does not mean that you will get a gold sticker every 156.25 capsules you open. The formule we use to calculate what % we will have to hit to get a gold before the opening goes like this: 1-(x/y)^z x = the odds of NOT hitting the outcome (in this case 100% - 0.64% = 99.63%) y = the total amount of options (which is 100%; you can change this when you are calculating with a dice for example. Then the 100% would be the total outcomes of the dice, which is 6 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6) z = the total amount of tries If you open 1 capsule: 1 - ( 99,36 ÷ 100 ) ^ 1 = 0.64% If you have 2 capsules that you want to open, then your odds don't double. It's a bit less then double as you can see in the formule underneath 1 - ( 99,36 ÷ 100 ) ^ 2 = 1.275904% (so not 1.28%) If you open 156.25 capsules (the odds to get 1 gold in 1 capsule) 1 - ( 99,36 ÷ 100 ) ^ 156,25 = 63,33% As you can see; this does not give you a 100% chance of getting a gold If we take this opening, which had 78 capsules; then the odds getting a gold before the opening were: 1 - ( 99,36 ÷ 100 ) ^ 78 = 39.40% If we take the previous opening from last year that had 120 capsules; then the odds were: 1 - ( 99,36 ÷ 100 ) ^ 120 = 53,72% If we combine both openings with a total of 198 capsules: 1 - ( 99,36 ÷ 100 ) ^ 198 = 71,96% Lets say if sparkles opens 1000 capsules and don't get a gold; the odds to do that will be: 1 - ( 99,36 ÷ 100 ) ^ 1000 = 99,837% 100% - 99,837% = 0.163% This means, that if sparkles would do 614 openings with each 1000 capsules; there will be 1 opening without getting a gold. This is purely theoretical of course :) , it's also possible that he gets 10 golds every opening
Fun Fact: When I was doing military service one of my commanders told us a story how during practice he got captured by the enemy and had to endure 3 hours of "Baby Shark" song as torture.
13:44 The shark's head on the Keshandr sticker fit perfectly with the snake's tongue and the last sticker looks like the shark is the head of the snake. Nice craft
I actually played with this guy like 2 weeks ago, as soon as I saw that awp with those stickers I was like, wait a second... I go through my recent matches and there he is lol
@@movemintplayer6063 Then why is it already tradable in the original guys inventory? That means it's been at least 2 weeks since this video was recorded, having to account for 2 full trade holds. You are aware that videos don't have to be instantly uploaded right after they're recorded right?
This made me look back in time to when I was a younger kid, I got a Dosia Gold and sold it during the after major sale for only $20 to open more cases. But as I dive deeper I see some more bad ones, like a KennyS Foil, mir Foil. Edit > I regret looking back to the past, as I didn't remember these, but I guess I also unboxed a Taco gold and a K0nfig gold Edit 2 > Found a page of me buying 8 Ropz foils for 45 cents, only to sell them 2 pages later for 60 cents Also found at least one shark sticker, wait, 4 more. That was a painful experience and I wish I could shakedown 2017 me. Either way, fun video, and thanks for giving me a reason to look back at the past, through the pain it is still interesting to see the way prices shot up. Much Love
The fact I had 200+ of these capsules few years ago and just sold them for X2 few months later still pains me to this day xD. Specially when I see videos like this haha Still love the videos Sparkles!!!
My thing is why buy a souvenir to scrap rare stickers, I mean these souvenirs suck sticker wise but there are regular desert hydras you can use although now that I think about it, I believe souvenirs are cheaper compared to the regular skin.
I have a UMP with two keshandr foils and one b1ad3 foil. About 4-500€ worth of stickers on blue ump. I used to open those when they were 0.25-0.5€ on market, unboxed a gold kennyS once and sold it when it was little over 100€.
I'm amazed the Shroud gold isn't the most valuable. There is only ONE gold Shroud sticker, and that's because he retired and never played in any other Majors. From the Krakow 2017 capsules, I have 4 Golds, Shroud, Skadoodle, Stewie2k, and N0thing. I unboxed them all.
Having 3 y.o. child Going watch some cool stuff on RU-vid before the sleep Oh, Sparkles released another video, yay! BABY SHARK! NO! GOD PLEASE NO! NO! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Back in 2017 i opened like 50 capsules and got niko (gold) and keshandr (gold).... i sold them for like 60 or 70 bucks and thought wow i made a lot of profit.... F
they can't and won't do that. the whole reason we know the odds is because of china and changing the odds would be a huge problem in that region, and would probably lead to banning of gambling from that region (or something similar)
