I know when Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 📈 Giovanni Santostasi | BFM052

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Giovanni Santostasi is an Italian Physicist and Chief Scientific Officer at Deepwave Technologies. I discovered his Reddit post “15 years of BTC Power Law” a few months ago, which was a follow-up to a post called “Bitcoin power law, over 10 years, all the way to Genesis Block.”, which he posted 5 years ago. I was instantly triggered because I had read about power laws before, and his username ‘⁠Econophysicist1⁠’ was even more intriguing. In the past months, his model blew up and got more attention on Bitcoin Twitter, so I thought it was time to dive into this super interesting, entertaining, and challenging subject.
→ Follow Giovanni on ⁠ / giovann35084111⁠
→ Giovanni’s RU-vid: / @quantonomy
→ Giovanni’s Reddit post: / 15_years_of_btc_power_...
→ Learn more: Why do Power Laws work so widely? • Why do Power Laws Work...
Timestamps 🕑
00:00 - Introduction and Background
02:59 - Giovanni's Personal Journey with Bitcoin
11:10 - The PowerLaw Model and its Implications
25:35 - Approaching Bitcoin as a Science
29:25 - Visualizing Bitcoin's Behavior
36:09 - Bitcoin's Non-Exponential Behavior
39:11 - Introduction to the Power Law
42:03 - Explaining Straight Line and Exponential Growth
44:02 - The Magic of Bitcoin's Behavior
49:50 - Understanding the Green Band and Bubbles
01:04:09 - Bitcoin as a Fundamental Part of Education
01:11:23 - The Power Law as a Key to Understanding Bitcoin
01:16:38 - Introduction to Power Laws in Bitcoin
01:21:36 - Relationship Between Price and Adoption
01:26:50 - Equation for Bitcoin
01:33:14 - Bitcoin's Scaling Properties: Scale Invariance
01:52:57 - Bitcoin's Scaling Variance and Predictability
01:57:10 - The Long Time Preference and Holding Bitcoin
02:00:34 - Using Bitcoin's Cycles to Your Advantage
02:02:21 - Applying the Science of Bitcoin to Multiply Holdings
02:23:51 - Correlation Between Bitcoin's Price and Issuance
02:26:25 - The Slow and Methodical Growth of Bitcoin
02:28:20 - Bitcoin's Resistance to Gaming and Manipulation
Questions or comments? → ⁠bram@kanstein.co⁠
#Bitcoin #Finance #Economics #Fiat #BTC not #Crypto #BitcoinETF #ETF #Scarcity

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3 июл 2024

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Комментарии : 184

@manjorbas74 Месяц назад

Giovanni doesn’t let others get a word in 😂 savant energy. I think he is onto something here. Easy listen. Loved it

@bramk Месяц назад

I agree! It was fine just listening to him :)

@geoms6263 Месяц назад

he reminds me of Slavoj Zizek😁

@quantonomy 29 дней назад

@@geoms6263 what a compliment!

@JimJamJuicy 25 дней назад

He’s epic, he’s like an excited kid who’s discovered a Lolly pop machine

@anubischick 20 дней назад

Maybe if we were talking about lunch he would let you get a word in.He is past he 'thinks' he is onto something, this is his discovery and It is mammoth. He says at the start of his talk that he has it all laid ready to go what he wants to say. This was more of a TED talk to listen to this presentation in order, I would say.

@jackcrook4435 Месяц назад

Gio is the man!

@TheRealDerekS Месяц назад

This is the best breakdown of the power law I have ever heard. I've spent the last 3 months trying to get Podcasters to get Geo on and let him run... none have done so. Great work Bram. I believe this is the only "model" that has any meaning, at all.

@bramk Месяц назад

Thanks! It is a Theory, not a Model ;)

@Waynesworrldexcellent Месяц назад

@@bramk its a Law, for now

@conduit242 29 дней назад

If he showed it on a linear scale nobody would take this “model” seriously. Total charlatan.

@Waynesworrldexcellent 29 дней назад

@@conduit242 showing your ignorance of what a power law is

@conduit242 29 дней назад

@@Waynesworrldexcellent Oh do tell…‘splain it to me

@solcharms 12 дней назад

2:15:00 - summarizes the interview. Bram: "I love to listen to you" Gio: "Me too"

@bramk 12 дней назад

Haha

@blue-gx5tm Месяц назад

I was already orange pilled but Gio super orange pilled me!

@bramk Месяц назад

Love it!

@sergiosjd Месяц назад

Bravo, Mr Santostasi. Bravo Giovanni.

@mikeb4485 28 дней назад

Y = x^n or Bitcoin price = 10^-17 days^5.83 and please explain simply by plugging the numbers and illustrate in dollar term of this formula. I tried to plug in the numbers myself like Giovanni said but it didn’t work. Thanks!

@rockermilano 25 дней назад

Grande Giovanni, bel lavoro ! the theory can do predict the fairPrice/bottomPrice because it's a power law based on thousands of measures (days) , this is very useful, but on the contrary cannot predict the high/bubbles because the ATH peaks were only 5 in all Bitcoin history, and 5 measures are not statistically relevant. So we can predict the lows but not the highs... we "only" know BTC will never ever go below the fairValue on the green band of the log-log chart calculated with the equation.

@Julian-pj2zi 26 дней назад

Only half way through and this is mind blowing. Cheers!

@bbcdsatoshi 29 дней назад

Wonderful, truly wonderful video!

@auction00 Месяц назад

We do still need to acknowledge that as Bitcoin gets alot higher in value it will also be less volatile. So it won't have the big ups and downs that we have now.

@jrgb9945 15 дней назад

One would think, but the other thing everyone is lying about-is that it set a new ATH in 2024-because it sure as hell did NOT. The 69k of Nov 2021 is now 81k. Despite all the ETF muff fluff, bitcoin is struggling. There is no “supply shortage”.

@mightymo8351 13 дней назад

@@jrgb9945sure it measured a ATH in dollar, that's the measure you mention yourself. The moment you measured it in buying power there would be as many bitcoin price interpretations as humans on the planet.

@jayhebert8775 25 дней назад

Incredible.... just when you think you are all in on bitcoin, things like this awaken you to another possibility of bitcoin existence.

@PinkPurkle 26 дней назад

He makes so much sense!!! ❤❤❤

@stephenburns433 Месяц назад

Nice one Bram

@bramk Месяц назад

Thank you! 🙏🧡

@Cdarlosfletch58 28 дней назад

Now we get into the Realm’s of real possibilities , Then comes the great enlightenment moment of bitcoin for nature humanity and the Planet 🌎. Great episode 😊

@cryovu 28 дней назад

Super interesting!

@hiddenself 29 дней назад

Wonderful lecture!! I conclude, that 1 million price prediction in 2030 (by some financial persons) might be accurate as the top of the cycle. Then it would become a "fair price" in 2034, according to the Santostasi law :)

@rockermilano 25 дней назад

1 million could be tomorrow.. the theory does not forbid that, the theory is about the prediction of an average fair bottom price value.. Theory says BTC, in a certain day, can't go under a calculated price, but it may well go over that price by any means and value..

@hiddenself 25 дней назад

@@rockermilano I agree. But I think the price also might go under, as you mentioned, average price. It goes usually about +/- 60%, sometimes more to the up side.

@CardSharkGermany 14 дней назад

Sure we could also see a flying pig tomorrow. Possible, but not probable. Guys, stay realistic.

@marosszeki Месяц назад

wow, what a fantastic value video

@bramk Месяц назад

🙏🙏

@BordeauxFanatic 27 дней назад

Nice interview. Giovanni's commentary about first you have to understand how before why, when understanding scientific phenomena, is interesting because in business one always needs to start with why, before addressing how. :-)

@bramk 27 дней назад

Great point!

@bitcoinpoemspro1406 Месяц назад

Thx

@nothinghere1996 29 дней назад

Does the analysis factor in the scarcity which increases over time past a certain point? example, when first being mined, bitcoin was incredibly scarce, but that changed rapidly as they were easy to mine. Really the data from bitcoin shoud only be analysed once a threshold of mined coin was reached and the scarcity function kicks in. Now it's 90% complete, enough to hold the worlds entire wealth. So me thinks the slope of the power curve is sharper from that point in time.

@BordeauxFanatic 27 дней назад

It's interesting that there are 'bubbles' to the upside, but not to the downside - there is more of a 'floor', but not a ceiling...

@rockermilano 25 дней назад

Noise is reducing as BTC is more and more adopted and its cap gets bigger: the bubbles accordingly to the cap and adoption are reducing their peaks, to some future point in time (maybe the global adoption day?) when price will seat flat on the equation without any fluctuations..

@user-99.99 24 дня назад

Absolutely fascinating! Great explanation of Power Law and BTC that even a simpleton ditch digger like me can understand. Thank you both. ❤️💪🙏

@bramk 24 дня назад

Glad you liked it!

@Leo-wm3xr Месяц назад

i believe this will be 3 hours of pure gol.. Bitcoin

@bramk Месяц назад

Haha let me know! I don’t say much ;)

@russbilderback Месяц назад

Epic!

@TheAgentGold Месяц назад

Another wild rabbit hole... I understand (well enough) using log scale for values, but log scale for time still makes my head spin a bit. I'll check out that Scale book after I finish... um, two others in my queue. Seems like it could be good for adjusting my perspective on things! One thing I'd be curious to see is data using a different denominator than the dollar. The dollar makes for a poor measuring stick--it's a _little_ stable, but it's at the whims of a few people and guaranteed to keep losing value over time. What does this chart look like in terms of ounces of gold or silver, or barrels of oil? I expect the same pattern is still present and it's just a bit of different fuzziness around the line. Maybe it wouldn't even be useful data, but it helps for reading it as a reliable model!

@rockermilano 25 дней назад

log-log charts are in use since centuries, why not for BTC? you can put whatever currency denominator, maybe the only difference in the equaltion , shoud be the constant multiplier number.. it's plausible

@SuperPhunThyme9 25 дней назад

Comparing it to energy prices would be ideal. Btw, what do you think about just pegging the US dollar to 'one hour of unskilled labor' (about $12 currently)?

@TheAgentGold 24 дня назад

@@SuperPhunThyme9 That's an interesting idea. I've done an exercise with a spreadsheet to calculate how much a person might earn over a 40 year career, and that's sort of a measure of how much a "human life" is in dollar terms. It's sort of a cynical way to measure how many "lives" congress spends with their budgeting. But that calculation still requires a guess for inflation, which is subjective since prices of different goods don't rise at the same rate. Sort of comes back to "the dollar is a junky way to measure this, but it can be useful as an approximation." Measuring using hours of unskilled labor sounds interesting, you just need a way to define that which you're happy with!

@Aipips 18 дней назад

Nice work I agree if you can’t understand this power model then you probably do not understand bitcoin. Nice video.

@espantax1 Месяц назад

Thanks for this content!. This is the mathematical expresion of the bitcoiner's attitude. All of this looks harmonious and coherent with nature's behaviour. Thanks eveyone for been there. Let's keep on pushing anyhow. All the best from Madrid.

@bramk Месяц назад

Boom!

@TransMeditation 25 дней назад

Best model I've seen so far

@jamesbecker4326 Месяц назад

what a great video

@bramk Месяц назад

Thank you 🙏🧡

@Justwatchin1 29 дней назад

This is a very good assessment. I do believe the 2033-34 model says 1 million dollars. I think BTC can touch 1 million around 2028-29. (volatility to the upside) This is so interesting, I'm wondering what Geo's assessment is with Altcoins and how their graphs react in relationship to BTC. Thanks!

@jrgb9945 15 дней назад

Alt coins don’t matter, they aren’t scarce and have basically a Ukrainian monetary policy

@Justwatchin1 15 дней назад

@@jrgb9945 while I agree with you in terms of scarcity. We also have to acknowledge utility case of tokens.

@StarlightStarbrightOracle 26 дней назад

What a wonderful interview, its a privilege to have found it. Thank you from Australia. My brain has been sparked 🧠✨

@bramk 26 дней назад

Glad you enjoyed it!

@StarlightStarbrightOracle 26 дней назад

@@bramk very much so, I'm watching it again and have bought the book on kindle; 'scale' thank you so much

@Gtwannabe Месяц назад

Been telling this man that he needs to explain his law into layman/person language so that the avg person can understand but bet a bct he’ll only get worked up!

@dk-zh4nc 29 дней назад

1 million dollars 10 years from now will be worth around 75 cents

@bramk 29 дней назад

Haha yeah maybe

@jrgb9945 15 дней назад

That is the downside. And no one wants to be honest about it. Nothing happens in a vacuum. The 69k of Nov 2021 is now 81k. So have we hit a new ATH in 2024? Of course not.

@davidlovatt1968 28 дней назад

Is there a power law to predict how many fucking ads there will be in a video?

@bramk 28 дней назад

Haha ask RU-vid ?

@iforgor6806 25 дней назад

😂😂

@LEDit0ut 26 дней назад

Brilliant guy be he needs to let other people speak and have a discussion.

@helix1061 25 дней назад

growth is exponentially because of periodic halving. which then is a straight line on a log scale.

@alexanderkeehnen 5 дней назад

What is that formula he shows around 01:00:00? Do I read correctly that it says 10^-# days ^5.83?

@Eric-hz7ei Месяц назад

So when will it hit? I cant listen for 3 hours

@bramk Месяц назад

203X

@Eric-hz7ei Месяц назад

@@bramk thnx

@geoms6263 Месяц назад

Mr.Sa(n)tos(tas)i

@areejledorerussia 10 дней назад

If you here only for the numbers go to 1hour 29min mark lol but you will miss a lot of value...

@MichaelCoughlanmusic 22 дня назад

#POWER #LAW IS THIS CYCLE'S #STOCK #TO #FLOW

@albertsanchez-alvarez195 13 дней назад

I think this could have been doen in under 40 to 60 minutes. I had to listen to while I drove Uber, washed my car, check the AC cleaned the house build a dam to supply water to the greater souther california area, had a kid raised him coached baseball sent him to college and now is starting Law School. Dude Whiskey Tango Foxtrot the title of your show is Bitcoin for Millennial a generation well known for a shorten attension span. Ok Ear Buds back in maybe I'll get to check out some of the charts. Well you did it You made Andrew Huberman seem concise, pithy, succinct, terse.

@bramk 13 дней назад

Haha

@user-ym1fd6ee8n 24 дня назад

The day when BTC will reach 1M, I'll send you a strawberry pie from France !

@husaberg650 19 дней назад

Wow!

@jrgb9945 15 дней назад

Buy bitcoin, but you’d better be prepared to wait four years to have positive ROI. If you don’t have four years, you need to use caution and moderate your investment.

@coraliecyrst-pierre8023 25 дней назад

Differences: A true scaling variant system typically has a more dynamic scaling mechanism. In Bitcoin, fee adjustments are an indirect consequence of network load, not a direct control mechanism. Additionally, core aspects of Bitcoin, like block time (roughly 10 minutes), are relatively fixed.

@HowardRoark1 12 дней назад

Can you please elaborate? What do you mean more dynamic scaling? Ie how is the body mass vs metabolic rate power law a more dynamic scaling system?

@slephora 10 часов назад

When will Bitcoin reach $1million: 10 years from now.

@bradmarcus26 Месяц назад

2033 using my power log chart and a ruler.

@bramk Месяц назад

🙏

@stephanhueffer2725 Месяц назад

If you consider stable purchasing power, I would agree, but with the acceleration of monetary debasement, my guess would be end of 2028...

@ravinleonduncanstar 29 дней назад

Does giovanni have italian content aswell? Or some kind of paper I can send my italian friends? Thanks for the great talk🙏

@bramk 29 дней назад

Not that I know of

@bramk 29 дней назад

Check medium.com/@alessandro.ottaviani84/capire-bitcoin-nel-2023-4b4633ba8696 and storeofbitcoin.com/education/ (Italian content about austrian school), from my friend Alessandro

@bramk 29 дней назад

And atlas21.com/it/bitcoin-la-migliore-riserva-di-valore-che-lumanita-abbia-mai-avuto/

@ravinleonduncanstar 29 дней назад

Thanks🙏

@Gettin_Figgy_Wit_It 29 дней назад

What a rich and thought provoking interview. Giovanni is a great thinker, but I feel like you two needed a moderator. He wasn’t really listening to what you were saying. Also, it was hard to see the slides. Maybe next time try sharing the presentation in presentation mode?

@bramk 29 дней назад

Good points! Thanks

@joedoe1300 Месяц назад

👍

@rmondave 25 дней назад

Understanding Bitcoin requires a multi disciplinary approach and background without that background it will take years of study and thought to become fully committed to and understand why Bitcoin is checkmating the entire global fiat financial and monetary system and will put the bankers on notice as soon as they all understand that their gravy train days are numbered😅 1913 was a long time ago😅😅😅😅

@anubischick 20 дней назад

"I am a student here..." then interrupt many times causing the convo to meander away from the point until we can come back to the point. Nothing wrong with interjecting, with questions, but interrupting, no. "Let me finish". Finally.

@bramk 20 дней назад

I said 6 things in 3 hours 😂 (or, I tried haha)

@anubischick 20 дней назад

@@bramk You more than tried. We listened to you underscore what freaks you out more than once, lol. You interrupted. I felt when you have someone like that on, who is obviously there to school all of us, shhh, let him speak, let him take the reigns even though it is your show. He interrupted you too but that felt important because he was getting to what you were interrupting about and he was interrupting you to get us back on track. You did a good job though, aside from that bit and mostly in the beginning. Round of applause. Actually when you said in the beginning, "I am the student" I was like, finally some bro who is not going to interject, interrupt and fist bump their accomplishments instead of be a host and let the person have the floor. But then you kind of did it, not as bad as many bro's on social media. For that, I applaud you.

@bramk 19 дней назад

@@anubischick ok thanks? haha

@classlessbozo317 22 дня назад

Before the end of this decade my BTC holding will be worth significantly more than my home.

@13hubi13 Месяц назад

Maybe its just alien technology. Maybe it can prove that we live in a simulation

@bramk Месяц назад

Who knows

@Entertainment-jv8xw 29 дней назад

I didn't get it but time will shoe the way

@bramk 29 дней назад

Haha yes!

@rorittahasn7946 26 дней назад

😊

@AlmonteList 29 дней назад

Stock to flow is gay full rainbow. Power law is we win. Godpower!

@mzeewakazi1092 19 дней назад

But I will subscribe anyhow :)

@bramk 19 дней назад

Welcome

@JuzzaDaMuzza 27 дней назад

Can anyone reduce this podcast length by the power of 6?

@bramk 27 дней назад

Haha

@John-wf5if Месяц назад

When does it hit $1m according to this eccentric gentleman?

@bramk Месяц назад

Watch the video ;) 2033 ish

@John-wf5if Месяц назад

@@bramk I shall watch every minute. You have my word, sir.

@geoms6263 29 дней назад

Giovanni Santostasi, a renowned physics professor, suggests that Bitcoin could reach its peak at $210,000 in January 2026 according to the power law model. However, he also anticipates a potential drop to $60,000 thereafter. Moreover, Santostasi boldly claims that Bitcoin could soar to $10 million by the year 2045

@princy_gurung7652 26 дней назад

Underfull 3:11

@user-rb3gj8mq1j 29 дней назад

Another 3 hours, and I will start to speak ItAlian.

@bramk 29 дней назад

Haha

@matricpass 26 дней назад

Giod

@dogegamer3288 Месяц назад

Regarding the video title. No you dont. No he doesn’t. You may have convinced yourselves you know but you don’t. Period.

@bramk Месяц назад

Dude you like Doge - 😂 not serious

@dogegamer3288 29 дней назад

@@bramk Not the coin, but the dog and meme.

@davecorley5514 29 дней назад

Correct. But, a power law allows predictability of the trough’s (base) price.Then adjust for the time of the cycle. He kind of showed this in one of his first slides when he applied a sine wave on the price graph, where the sine allows for the adjustment within the four year cycle.

@jrgb9945 15 дней назад

@@dogegamer3288Alt coins are for the mentally defective

@markusdex 29 дней назад

hmmm. So if the same power law theories predict bitcoin and the size of dinosaurs. At what point does the power law predict Bitcoin to be extinct ?

@johnedward6133 29 дней назад

This guy seems very valuable to the #BTC ecosystem, although as a good scientist he obviously has trouble popularizing his theory, his explanations are a bit long and not always very clear, and I have to admit that his power laws everywhere has lost me a bit. That said, I more or less agree with his price projections, which are spot on.

7 дней назад

sooo when reaches the million? :)

@bramk 7 дней назад

203X

@modelmark 13 дней назад

Adoption can not exceed total population

@int_pro 22 дня назад

OMG it took forever to get to any ah-ha. 🤦

@DrFlox 13 дней назад

When he plots the bitcoin price in $ over 15 years, then for 1$ in 2009 you would need 1.46$ in 2024 to compare the same purchasing power. How would this change the behavior, or does this just change the slope of the line?

@juhanaranta9445 12 часов назад

in log log space these deviations are not significant enough. You need orders of magnitude difference to impact this model.

@user-rb3gj8mq1j 29 дней назад

In 10 years, the loaf of bread will reach a million dollars. I don't need science for it.

@bramk 29 дней назад

Haha

@alwindew1723 29 дней назад

Holy moly. Ik wil van een mug (of was t een muis) geen olifant maken, maar wil toch de olifant in de kamer benoemen. Ging dit over bitcoin, wat een hoop side info? 😂 intelligente man, maar lastig te volgen vanuit de auto

@bramk 29 дней назад

Haha ja zonder groot beeld lastig te volgen!

@gotnoname3956 16 дней назад

I don't like such models. It is not modeling any causal relationship, it just assumes that the previous trend will continue combined with a BIG range for uncertainty. It's also quite weird to assume that the price of bitcoin is determined by the time (it's just the model assumption, if you want to use it as a predictive model). Nobody with a clear mind would make such a naive assumption. I also assume that Giovanni does not think that the implications of the model over the next decades are valid. The implicated prices for 2040 or any other year far in the future is just too high.

@bramk 16 дней назад

It is not a model

@rodneydowd4739 29 дней назад

TLDR

@bramk 29 дней назад

Number go up

@rodneydowd4739 29 дней назад

@@bramk I was being facetious. I watched the whole thing. Not sure my brain could comprehend it tho.

@bramk 28 дней назад

Haha mine neither

@toddsmith4280 11 дней назад

Giovanni needs to learn not to talk over people.

@jakenumedahl8494 26 дней назад

Stop interrupting and contradicting your guests. Let them present!

@bramk 26 дней назад

God damn I said like 5 things in 3 hours and still get a comment like this haha. Thanks Jake

@cbcbmail1125 18 дней назад

@@bramkplease do NOT listen to this person. The guest although fantastic, should have let you talk more! It’s YOUR SHOW FFS!! 😵‍💫

@mzeewakazi1092 19 дней назад

It’s hard to subscribe because he doesn’t let the expert do his thing. It’s like he doesn’t want to learn by listening

@bramk 19 дней назад

🤷‍♂️

@SamuelGriffin Месяц назад

I don’t trust anyone who cannot stop talking.

@bramk Месяц назад

Haha he is passionate

@Waynesworrldexcellent Месяц назад

weird criteria

@areejledorerussia 10 дней назад

Amazing discovery that truly should be named after your guest name! Only thing to point out is that the power law is not made or organised by "nature" as people often say about everything is our complex and perfect universe. It is one of the laws of creations of God Almighty who allowed us to discover it. Your guest and you shall consider studying Islam. It is also about creation of universe and its laws, about freedom and authenticity just like Bitcoin and it has a lot in common. Al Quran (the final revelation from God) is memorized by millions of people around the world. All ages and nationalities. Therefore it can not be corrupted. Just as we store the history of Bitcoin transactions and no one can mess with that. The authentic narrations from the final messenger of God Almighty that explain Al Quran are checked and authenticated by the chains of its narrations. Just like the block chain in Bitcoin.

@alexconstantine192 28 дней назад

This host needs to learn to shut his mouth and stop trying to show how much he knows by speaking over his guest. No one comes to hear you talk about what you think OVER what your guests actually know.

@bramk 28 дней назад

Ok then don’t watch lol