11:30 sparked some interest in me, so I spent some time doing the math so you don't have to. (I could be wrong, it's late and I'm prone to mistakes) If the game is played normally and everyone chooses one of the 6 hiding places without knowing what the others chose, the chances of the hunter winning end up at around 63.4%. Math for those who care In 20/36 scenarios, each hider will pick a unique spot. Hiding this way gives the hunter a (5/6)^3 = 125/216 (about 58%) chance of winning In 15/36 scenarios, 2 hiders will be together and the third will be on their own. Hiding in this way gives the hunter a (5/6)^2 = 25/36 (about 69.4%) chance of winning. In only 1/36 scenarios, everyone hides together. This gives the hunter a 5/6 chance of winning. (20/36)(125/216)+(15/36)(25/36)+(1/36)(5/6) = about 63.4% chance of a hunter winning. Math End If any hiders choose the horse, the hunter will be forced to waste a turn finding them, leaving 4 turns to find the others. Assuming you choose the horse and everyone else selects randomly, the chances of the hunter winning drop to 53.7%. If you're playing with real people and tell them not to go to the horse, the chances drop even more to about 48.15%. Math again In 36/49 scenarios, nobody else will choose the horse. They then have a 5/6 chance of choosing differently from each other, which leaves the hunter with a (2/3)^2 = 4/9 (about 44.4%) chance of winning. The remaining 1/6 where the other two choose the same gives the hunter a 2/3 chance of winning. (5/6)(4/9)+(1/6)(2/3) = about 48.15% chance of the hunter winning. Ignore all of the lines below in the case you can tell your teammates you're choosing the horse. In 12/49 scenarios, someone else will choose the horse. This leaves the hunter with a 2/3 chance of success. In 1/49 scenarios, everyone decides the horses would be fun. There's no winning in this scenario. (36/49)(0.4815)+(12/49)(2/3)+(1/49) = about 53.7% chance of the hunter winning. Math End 2 TL;DR: The real Matt has a massive brain and knew he could increase the team's chances of winning by almost 10% by wasting the hunter's first guess. His clone was too powerful, however, and managed to win despite less than likely odds.
Pro tip for ya. When you’re in a roll off, roll the dice first. You’ll have a better chance of getting a higher roll than if you wait for the other Miis to take the high numbers.
@@hachi8284 Perhaps they are. But theoretically, rolling first would give you a higher chance of getting a bigger number seeing as the numbers are never repeated in roll offs.
initially, the players form a Matt purity scale from right to left right: purest Matt, correctly-coloured and naturally occurring second from the right: semi-pure Matt, unnatural but otherwise pure second from the left: unnatural incorrect Matt, the wrong colour but is trying to be Matt left: completely non-Matt
For the hide and seek 1v3 minigame, having one person behind the horses is actually good as even though you can clearly see if someone is there it takes a guess, leaving 2 of the actual hiding spots open as opposed to one.
@@Eidenhoek You can see if someone is hidden behind the horse, so someone wasting the hunter's first guess by choosing that, makes it less likely that the hunter will be able to guess the other 2 hiding spots correctly before running out of turns.
@@Eidenhoek To make it a bit more intuitive: the crux is that if no one hides behind the horses, the seeker is able to see that no one hides there, leaving him with five choices over the six remaining spots. However, if exactly one person does hide behind the horses, then the seeker has to search that area, leaving him with only four choices over the remaining six spots. Although the seeker now only has to find two people instead of three, this still turns out to be in favor for the hiders. To see that this in fact turns into a favor for the hiders, here is some math: First of all, we assume the three (or two) hiders pick a spot at random. In the first case (i.e. nobody hides behind the horses), the seeker has to find the three people behind six possible spots with five guesses. The probability of the hiders winning is equal to the probability of at least one guy hiding in the one spot the hider did not check. If the three hiders hide in different spots, this is equal to 50%, as either there is someone behind that spot or not. It could, however, be the case that two hiders (or even three!) hide in the same spot, but this can only reduce the chances of winning, so that on average the chances of winning are 50%. Hence, it becomes clear that it is in favor for the hiders to have one person hide behind the horses opposed to not doing that, and with the additional maths, we can see that this increases the chances of winning with 13.4 percentage points.
I mean Matt has the right idea statistically. If you hide on the horses you have a higher chance of winning if you don’t. You can see if someone hides there so if no one is there you can eliminate one without choosing it leaving 1 option that doesn’t have someone rather than 2 if no one hides together
2 years later and this is still one of Poofesure’s funniest Wii Party videos ever made. For those who don’t know why red Matt is the wrong skin color and has the favorite color set to purple, it’s because on his Wii Sports John Wick vs. Matt video from 2019, he made a Matt Mii and the skin color the same as Beef Boss and set the favorite color to purple. Basically, that Matt Mii is a leftover Mii from a previous video.
Actually it’s kind of smart to have 1 hide in that middle spot in the hide and seek mint game. Forces the seeker to use one of their things to find them and leaves all the other ones hidden without them knowing which one to choose so they’re basically down one more spot to look at all the time
the chance of him getting any other specific combination of 3 results is also extremely unlikely, which would imply that rolls happening at all would mean the game is rigged.
it is actually a good strat for 1 person to hide on the horses, since the CPU normally never picks it, meaning instead of 3 chances to find 3 people in 6 spots, is now 2 chances to find 2 people in 6 spots
10:50 its actually not that stupid because then the seeker has to choose 1 out of 3 at the end that he definitely cannot see. if there was no one in the middle it would be a 1 out of 2 chance because why should the seeker use their guess on a spot where no one is hiding
I’m watching this while eating the breakfast burger from Whataburger. I psyched myself up a week ago (week ago) and every morning talked myself out of it. Finally got it. Took one bite, immediately had to clean up and take a nap
