I might know what the 2022 Breyer Christmas Surprise will be!

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It’s almost Christmas! If you’re in the Breyer Collector Club, there may be a Christmas Surprise to purchase on the morning of the 25th, and I might know which model it will be…
I looked at the past seven Breyer Christmas Morning Surprises and found a couple patterns. I share that here, as well as my top ten model picks for this year’s Surprise. Are you going to try and get one?
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UPDATE 12/22!:
Esprit slipped through the cracks when I was sorting models. He's 12 years old and fits by having no releases this year. His BF Surprise use: 6 years ago; his holiday horse use: 8 years ago, and his filigree use: 12 years ago. BUT, he was St Moritz, a blue winter decorator with snowflakes and flurries offered in November 2017, so I don't imagine he'd be the Surprise this year.
Another winter traditional decorator was the Fjord, sold as "Naughty" or "Nice" to JAH subscribers in 2001. I don't imagine he'll be the Surprise this year, either.
UPDATE 12/23!
I also forgot about Ashquar :D He's nine years old and hasn't had a release in a while.
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Happy Holidays!
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Holiday graphics provided by:
-I made a lot of them myself
-Arts-and-crafts Image by Pexels from Pixabay
-Gifts Image by Yvette Fang from Pixabay
-Pine branch illustration by someone good at Illustrator on Freepik:
www.freepik.com/free-vector/h...
-Model pictures from Breyerhorses.com and IdentifyYourBreyer.com
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Holiday music provided by:
-family-Christmas-orchestral-cinematic-magical-fairy-tale-Music by SoundGalleryByDmitryTaras from Pixabay-125109
-Christmas-knocking-to-the-door-Music by Lesfm from Pixabay-11928
-Christmas Village - Aaron Kenny - RU-vid Audio Library

Опубликовано:

21 дек 2022

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Комментарии : 18

@CandaceToo Год назад

THERE IS NO RHYME OR REASON ANYMORE.. EVERYTHING IS CHAOS 😂

@MusicSparkleStar09 Год назад

Nice picks! I'm seeing a lot of hype for the Fell Pony, and I think it matches up really well. A bunch of the folks who participated in my poll last year correctly guessed Croi :) This is pretty similar to how I did my analysis. I did note that for previous Christmas Surprises, 5 of them (including Brighty) had previous production runs within the prior 3 years, and the rest had concurrent production, BUT it was never with a brand new RR or larger amount SR (except for Galiceno, the Gangster Ponies were introduced in 2020). Bouncer was concurrent with Brookside Pink Magnum, Othello had Xavier, and Croi had Cascade which were still in production as RR but weren't new. However, I found that small runs (sub 200) are exempt from the "it can't have another new run in the same year" rule. Churchill was the same year as the Santa Surprise and Victoria was last year, alongside Spice Drop. Regarding the Othello, I think Breyer took advantage of Xavier's production in order to do the Santa Surprise. All of the other molds used have been small traditional/pony or longears. I'd expect to see another smaller mold this year. My top 10 include Newsworthy, the Fell Pony, Aristocrat, Henry the Fjord, Brown Sunshine, Midnight Tango, Arabian Mare/Oasis, Forever Saige, Marabella, and Ashquar. I know a lot of people are guessing newer molds like Astrid, Fireheart, etc, but unless Breyer makes a LOT more of the Surprise, it's already been a decently reliable seller most years (especially last year), so I don't think they'd have a reason to use a super new mold. You never know, though!

@CandaceToo Год назад

Innnnteresting... I totally forgot about Victoria when looking for "same year releases" but it does make sense that they (including Churchill) wouldn't "count." I agree about Xavier and the Santa Surprise; that makes sense too.. and I also agree that newer molds will be sold as RRs, other web specials, and BF models before becoming a Christmas Surprise. Breyer can doll up an old mold in fancy paint and tempt with a micro-run Coal and sell out within minutes. I think that's kind of the point. Haha. But it's true: you never know! I like that our lists have a lot of the same models. I didn't consider Ashquar (but should have!) and left off the Fjord because of his winter-themed Gambler's Choice run for JAH Subscribers in 2001.. though that was quite a while ago.. and I'm hoping we'll see the Hackney and Sunshine during BreyerFest '23, which would leave space for other models for the Christmas Surprise. I guess we'll see! I'm excited!

@myrliegirl Год назад

I don't think it would be weather girl or silver simply because I feel like they've had "sets" in the past and it is a good time to let another run shine. Of your predictions, I'd like to see it be gem twist.

@CandaceToo Год назад

That was good thinking on the Weather Girls. I would have loved to see Gem Twist-- I was totally shocked they used Nikolas?!!

@myrliegirl Год назад

@@CandaceToo shocked as well! I heard a conspiracy that maybe they had enough left over that they painted over breyerfest models 😂 I would think likely not though as they have been selling celtic fling mystery boxes for how long now so surely they could do the same? But it was fun to think about why they might have chosen him.

@blanc.and.noir. Год назад

I’m guessing the fell pony!

@CandaceToo Год назад

I hope it's her! She's got too few releases for being such a sweet mold! 🤞

@Salty-lil-Sloth Год назад

Would love to see the fell pony or feathered vanner! Can’t wait to see what the surprise will be ❤🎉

@CandaceToo Год назад

Me too! I love those fluffy, feathered friends! So excited!! 🤞

@annelarsen100 Год назад

Oh I so hope it's silver!!

@CandaceToo Год назад

A Silver Surprise would be absolutely magnificent!!

@dragonwing22 Год назад

It's Breyer. They can be hard to predict. It could be an animal mold instead of a horse. It's also possible that there won't be a Christmas surprise (unlikely). There was only one person that begged and predicted the candy cane zebras.

@CandaceToo Год назад

They are undoubtedly hard to predict! You never know what goes into their selection process for a particular model at a particular time. I'm just hoping I don't "need" one in each color!

@farrierette5216 Год назад

I never get one in time they are gone 3 seconds after email sent .

@CandaceToo Год назад

Aw I'm sorry. They really do sell out FAST. I hope you can snag one this year if you see you like the offering!

@janethill4365 Год назад

I'm stunned at the price since our economy is in the sewer. People losing their jobs and homes, maybe having a difficult time buying food?

@CandaceToo Год назад

It's true. And sad. And not to mention the "rarity" of models is going down (bigger run numbers) while the price goes up.. along with that the quality/rush of their production.. it's pretty wild to watch. Hopefully if collectors can't manage a Surprise on the 25th (or any of these recent CC models) is to pick the color they like best off the secondhand market once they've got funds! ♥