Hi. This is the first time i watch your video but i'm really impressed. And i subcribe your chanel immediately after 5 minutes. You're honest, don't like most of trading youtuber out there. If you don't mind, could yoi share your backtest spreadsheet please?
That's how you can tell he actually makes profit with trading, because he doesn't need to sell courses to make money when he's already successful with trading.
this kind of conclusion is senseless, as all elements of strategy is equally important... you need good entry point, good timing perfect money management, discipline , mindset an also exit strategy ... all of the are crucial for LONG TERM success
I'd offer one additional piece of advice for when backtesting. Filter out the times of the day when you are not likely to trade. A number of signals will appear when you are sleeping, or at times when you prefer not to be trading and hence can distort the outcome. Try to backtest at least 100 times within the time zone you are working from. Other wise for newer traders wanting to learn the really essentials of constructing a profitable system, these are great videos.
the problem, when you backtest 100 times, the error marging is 20%. You backtest 1000 times, the error marging is 6,4%. you know the confidence interval in the law of probabilities, you will see that 100 times it is not at all significant
i would also like to add something to this. if you're trading on H1 timeframe, also make sure the price is above/below 200 EMA on a higher timeframe like H4 timeframe. And if you're trading on M15/M30 timeframe use H1 timeframe as the anchor timeframe.
Excellent point! I trade intraday off of the 5, 10 and 15 minute candles but I'm always in line with the the hourly and daily trend. I will also take small countertrend trades if going down at support, or if going up at resistance. Also keeping position sizes small and losses small really has helped me. Thanks for your comment!
@@asam In TradingView in the top left there are 3 dots on the far right of the bar for EMA that you added via strategies. Click settings on the bottom of the list that pops up when you click those dots. Change resolution to a time frame above yours. I have found in back testing I took less trades and had around the same win rate.
Great strategy which I use regularly. You could also add this rule below as I found there are many days with no trades trading Crude Oil. 30min chart. Take a short back to the mean when price is above the 200ema. When the MACD is above the zero line however producing a short signal, take the trade back to the mean. Take a Long back to the mean when price is below the 200ema. When the MACD is below the zero line however producing a long signal, take the trade back to the mean.
Had to come back and find this video I’ve been using this strategy for the last 4-5 months using a 1:4 risk to reward on each trade and I’ve made good profit wayyyyy more wins than losses.. I just wann thank you for taking the time to test these strategies for us may God bless you!
If you're reading this in 2023... I've tried this strat over hundreds of forex trades across multiple pairs and can't get it above 40% winrate on 1:1.5 risk/reward. That means I only just break even. But once you factor in commission costs, slippage and human error you end up at a loss. You have been warned...
Yes, I can confirm this in 2024, I programmed this strategy into a bot to run it on many currencies and a lot more than 100 trades, and this strategy DOES NOT WORK IT WILL LOOSE YOUR MONEY.
@@holmar1988 Are you talking about MT4? Do you still have that code? If yes, could you send the code to fileportDOTio please? I'm a beginner in MQL4 and having a MACD based code as a template would be really cool. In case you did upload the code and send me the upload link and i don't even thank you for it, it's because youtube shadowbanning comments that has links in it. Notice how i wrote "fileportDOTio" (I replaced "." with "DOT" to be not recognized as a link) Or you could simply paste the code directly here as a comment. But again, if i dont react, it means it got blocked. Only you can see your own comment but others don't (shadowbanning).
Exactly, this strategy is horrible. I found reversing the buy signals works much better. Dillon Grech has this strategy reversed and gets pretty decent results.
This is the first indicator and trading strategy that I have used that made me money when I first started trading. I managed to grow a measly 20 USD account to 500 USD but it was scalping with poor risk management but luckily it worked and it was like casino. Now, as a funded trader, I still use MACD and 200 EMA but with more confluence by adding price action and multi timeframe analysis.
This channel is awesome. Just what I have been looking for. Its refreshing not having 101 coursers for the bargain price of only $5000 thrown in my face every 2 minutes!
Subbed, this is the gold, love the simple and straightforward proof of concept. Important to note guys, notice when he places the backtest trades, he does so one candlestick AFTER the crossover. When you are live, the crossover wont be confirmed until candle close so the earliest possible time, is candle open for the candle after crossover.
This is the first Video on this channel, if you have any questions related to Trading, feel free to ask. Want me to make video on a specific trading strategy to show their real WIN RATE?? Mention that strategy name it in comments!! *Important : If you watch my videos, Understand why I test Strategies 100 times and not 10000 times* : ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-G7C2mKg8W60.html Subscribe for more videos :)
What time frame do you use to scalp? It's been hard for me to find actually It’s going to be on my way or not. I tries on Gbpusd but seem Doesn't respect that much.
The original and one of the best TR videos. One thing that really helped me is an almost 'throw-away' detail near the end about 'if you trade intraday and do 30 trades a month', I was doing too many trades on the one-minute chart and just getting a wavy flattish p/l curve. Just taking one or a maximum of two trades a day manually using TR's MACD system ( without any deviation from the rules in the vid) in only strongly trending markets (a strict rule) and on the 30m timeframe has improved my performance incredibly and can do the same for every interested hobby/amateur trader like me. As with all TR's vids there are so many gems crammed into 10 or 20 mins, it's well worth watching them on repeat several times over.
Thanks for the video! Just saying honestly, this is the best trading video I have seen in my life! And I have been trading for 7 years! Empirical evidence is what we all need! Just the beautiful facts with 100 trades! Thanks again and I have subscribed! Following this video we can pretend we are Mr. Spock from Star Trek and play the profitable probability.
Hello Start mining Pi, the cryptocurrency will be launched this year, and once it does, you won't be able to mine anymore. You don't need graphics cards you only need your phone, which is cloud mining. It doesn't consume battery. It's on coinmarketcap in the untracked listing. On the marketplace, there are already transactions for a value of $100 approx and when you just download the app you mine at 0.25 pis/hour. Use my code as an invitation. Code: Chutsky Download the app Pi network. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency...isn’t it always better to get in early? Just push a button on the app once every 24-hours...and next thing you know you are mining Pi. Pi doesn’t have value, but hopefully, as more and more people join...it will be worth something. I mean, bitcoin started without value...now look at it.
Doesnt work in real time because the next candle affects the x over. So you cannot be sure of a crossover until the next candle which makes you too late.
In addition to EMA 200 filter, I find that adding EMA 50/100 as filters are good too. for price to be below/above EMAs 50, 100 and 200 for sell/buy signal. And EMAs 50/100/200 have to be in sequence of top to bottom for buy and vice versa for sell. This seems to work well for filtering choppy zones.
This strategy definitely works. In my experience the best results are gained when trading only at the busiest time of day for Forex, ie when the European/London markets are open, thus also including the morning session in the US.The key here is strict money management plus using the long term moving average to filter for trend/trade bias.
Use a 5m chart, add a RSI indicator trade only above 50, and use trend-lines. If trendline is broken, 50 rsi is crossed and the MACD crossover occurs above the 50MA game on
Set up for those who's MACD has only histogram and signal line MACD 9, 12, 26 EMA 200 Buy 1. Price is above MA200 2. MACD histogram crosses Signal Line up 3. Signal line is below ZL Sell 1. Price is below MA200 2. Signal Line crosses MACD down 3. Signal line is above ZL Money Management 1. Risk no more than 1% 2. Place stop loss few pips above/below near swing high/low 3. When price hits 1.5 of the stop loss, close the trade
i really appreciate your video. It is very helpful. I been wondering around trading for 2 years already. I tried a lot of indicator. Also I watched a lot video on youtube, but I couldn't figured a good way to trade for me. 2 days ago, I randomly found this video. I gave it a shot to see how it will work for me. So far I have won 6 and lost 3. When I save up good money. I will support you on patreon. Again I really appreciate your help a lot. P/s: I still watching this video again again and again to make sure I will learn every single thing from this video.
This is very good! Could you explain (show) in details how you make each trade? It would be very helpful for a beginner every single detail of one of your trade. Thank you!
Thanks for the great videos. I tested this tonight with real $ on the MES, 1:1.5 risk reward and went 6 for 6 in about 6 hours - 1 minute chart. Also used the RSI and MFI as confirmation to get in. Worked out nicely and I had time to make dinner and take breaks while I was waiting for the good entries to present again. Dig it, I do! Is this your most successful test to date?
Please try this : -1min chart USDJPY -50EMA above 100EMA -price above the 50&100EMA -stochastic crossover in the oversold area =BUY [opposite setup for short positions] Tp:5pips Sl:5pips Break even when 2.5pips in profit
hey i just wanted to say thank you. this strategy you went over is very valuable. more importantly you taught me about the combination of a trend and how to properly use the macd. I used to think mac d was not a valuable indicator but seems to be after learning and implementing it may be the most valuable indicator ever. lesson learned was: know what indicators are telling you, look into how they derive the data to display. thanks so much
This is what ive been thinking in my mind for awhile now. Any strategies can make money. We just need to get more than 50% winrate and good risk management and we will end up profitable.
You can be profitable with a, for example, 30% winrate. What about if your winning trades have a 1:6 ratio? Are you sure you need that 51% winrate to be profitable? Think about it
@Oka Dharma Putra What win-ratio target will you have? Also a 1-6? So... Are you sure trading the opposite you will got 70% winrate? It's not that simple.
Wow literally the first things said in this video opened my eyes! I once watched a guy trade in his night kimono and all he ever tried to do was sell his indicator to the viewers.
This is the 2nd time I've seen this video. You're doing an amazing service! I appreciate your efforts. You are truly helping traders that have been listening to trading experts convince them of never putting any indicator on their chart. I now get why they must do that. If their course is simply perfecting positions using indicators then they can't justify charging so much for their trading knowledge.
Thank you for giving back to the public. Straight data and honesty. This guy’s the actual Robin Hood, and money management lessons will build the middle class in dark months to come. Appreciate the fishing lesson.
i backtested as well. i ended with 68% win rate with 1:1.5 risk ratio. i also backtested with the macd buy signal when its above the zero line and got 64% win rate. so this just doubles your opportunities to trade but with the same win rate
Melcheko cool man, I’m using this strategy on a funded account, maybe we can keep in touch on discord or something? I’m happy to show you my backtesting results on the m15?
could i get a copy of your backtesting spreadsheet? Would this work with micro e mini's futures? Will it work with renko bars instead of candlesticks? One of the best vids on trading btw, keep up the good work.
Loving your contributions to the trading community. Thanks! A suggestion . Can you please do a video on the MACD strategy on different timeframes to see which is most profitable.
After back-testing myself, I personally find that higher timeframes are more profitable and the strategy has a higher win rate however, can take significantly much more time to unfold as opposed to something like the hourly timeframe for example.
If you back test this yourself, you would learn this sooner than waiting for him to do it and post the results. Plus, you would have confidence in yourself in being able to do this rather than relying on someone else. At one point, he knew less than what you know right now, cause then he would have known nothing about trading! The only reason he is where he is now is because he put in the time and effort into learning. Your trading ideas and the chart results WILL teach you what you want to learn. All the best!
Good lesson! I've been a fan of MACD for years, but I've switched to Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) which is really the same thing; only it's normalized from absolute dollar values to percentage values. I learned to love the histogram from Dr. Elder. The computer voice narration reminded me of some deadpan cartoon humor I used to watch way back around 2011. It is a RU-vid channel called 'Xtranormal'. Some of these are still on RU-vid. Great if you like droll and deadpan.
I watched this video two weeks ago and combining this with the VWAP and what I currently use for trading has been a game changer. This has been in front of my eyes for two years and you explaining it made it so much clearer. In the last 1.5 weeks I have only lost two trades and they were the result of stop hunts. I’m trading NAS100 on the 3m TF and scalping/day trading the market. Yesterday alone I got 6 alerts and all 6 won. Some more than others. But this strategy combined with what I was doing before is a game changer. Thank you.
Free Football Bets I have combined the strategy he teaches using the MACD and VWAP to my own personal strategy that I have used. The teachings in his videos have just enhanced what I was doing previously and help me take higher quality set ups.
Thank you!! This is a great informative video, believe it or not I back tested BTC/USD cryptocurrency on the 1 day chart for a 2 year period. buying in on every red candle, with a ridged 5% stop. On the first purchase and Following the increase up with a 2% stop (No indicators on the chart at all) I started with £2000 and when my balance reached £3000 I withdrew £1000. My total profit was £12800 I did the same with EOS/USD and the profit was almost doubled. Had I not withdrew £1000 every time it reached £3k the profit was an astronomical £56k for BTC sounds ace on paper!! But I know there’s no way I would risk more than £2k on any 1 trade. So that £56k is never gonna happen 😂😂 now the problem.... actually trading in real time. I started with £100 and it hit my stop loss 4 days in a row straight away!! Well my confidence went out the window and I’m now thinking hmmm I should use the 200 ma. 😂😂😂😂😂. Anyway you have a new sub 👍
I honestly have so much RESPECT for you & your videos. Very informative, straight forward & the animation is also great & easy to understand. PLEASE don’t ever change lol
You have tu test this strategy on different timeframes and different markets. The win rate may change. I noticed, that in audusd, at 15 min time frame, the win rate is about 64%,but at 1 h time frame it's 48%. So, i will consider only the 15 min trades on aud usd. Btw if your win rate is 48% you are still gaining money
Hi, i DONT know of any person on the youtube that is actually showing this type of information and getting right down to it and giving the fast track answers to beginner (if not ALL traders questions) on trading strategies. I must applaud you on this 👋👋👋👋. 'Do you think you could show a 100x back test using the Trix, Schaff Trend Cycle. I am a Forex Traders (Daily Time Frame only), but i believe these indocators can be used for other financial instruments.
This channel is excellent - all education and highly useful / implementable strategies - no selling or nonsense. Absolutely brilliant and I hope the creator is making loads of money from it.
Subscribed immediately just after watching 2 minutes into the video. Great work. I'm a beginner. This is encouraging and motivational. I lost huge amounts of money as I didn't know money management. Thanks a lot. Love from India 🥰
Hi, please check the EMA 6,13,23 used with the MACD. The 6 EMA is showing a leading indicator ahead of the MACD. It looks like a upside down Chineses hat.
The only problem I see is when price starts to range it can really chop you up if you're not careful and stack on the losses. An FX pair like GBPJPY can trend nice but can also do hardcore ranging sessions and just whip everyone about and it can do this for days maybe even weeks so if you can't identify when a pair starts ranging you're in big trouble.
I have an important question. When I'm trading on the 1 minute window in example, do I open the trade IMMEDIATELY after I see the lines cross (even if just for couple seconds) or do I wait for the entire minute pass to confirm that they crossed?
Awesome content! Been watching for awhile now and I have a comment/question... I am having some trouble understanding the correlation between the win $ amount calculation vs win rate % on the 1.5 to 1 ratio. In your backtesting, your 1.5 to 1 ratio is per trade, and since the 1 ratio is determined by the previous swing high/low, that is not a constant. Therefore the calculations you made on the 100 trades, just bc its 62% winrate or 50% winrate doesn't equate to profitability or loss. Two trades 1 to 1.5 could be $5 to $7.50 and be wins, but then the third 1 to 1.5 ratio trade could be $20 to $30 and was a loss. Net profit is -$5, but winrate is 66.66%. Can you elaborate on these calculations please, a little confused.
The percentage is 62%, regardless of possible profit. The position size could be correlated with the known price range and with a proper risk management mindset, a trader would simply recalculate to compensate. this means a loss will always be about 100$ and a win would be almost always be 150$.
This vid is a great eye opener! The real time recorded back test with the high speed run is an excellent way to communicate much info in a short time. Thanks for this wonderful presentation!
I love this Channel. So, I am new and plan on watching everyone of these videos. I am currently reading a book from Bear Bull Traders on Day trading. I think I will be better suited swing. I will do this right, and I will need lots of help along the way. I want the best of both worlds of course... I say that because I want a proper setup, gear, support group all at the cheapest cost possible. Thanks for you channel
wow! as a beginner, I started using MACD & MA to predict trend, now stumbled across your channel, it verifies the strategy validity. thanks for doing this video!
Finding the entry point is pretty straight forward, but how do you determine your stop loss and take profit levels, i.e. how big of a pip movement you should target, in order to correctly set the values for the 1.5 ratio? Update: Basically I think I got myself an answer, and if you are looking forward to making easy money, I am going to disappoint you. The way you correctly set the SL and TP levels is simply by experience and the ability to find other patterns in the market (this includes support and resistance levels, indication of trade volumes,...). Sure, you could experiment and probably get lucky, but the MACD indicator combined with the EMA, while being a great starting point to filter out trades which don't make sense at all, are pretty much just one of the tools to make experienced traders trade with even less risk. Good luck to you all. And remember, trend is your friend!
I'm hooked to your channel now.. its going to be binge watching. All your videos are simply awesome, especially for someone like me who is a beginner. Thank you!!!
I am liking it, I am subscribing it.. heck I even comment on it, in a looooong time since I can remember.. I watch all the ads even visiting their webs.. least I can do.. thank you so much
Hi TR, thanks for the video! How do you set your stop loss and entry? I noticed you said that several winning trades came close to stopping out. How did you set the stop relative to the MACD crossover point?
Thanks so much for all your hard work. Really appreciate the way you have prepared these videos to guide ppl like us who get confused in deciding which strategy to be used. 👍🏼👍🏼. Wish you best in life
Great video! Thanks for all the information and motivation. You're absolutely right about money management being the key. That's something no one really tells you.
@@vegetaz1532 I'm trading just forex.. I decided to take a break from trading. This strategy like any other indicator strategy is a 50/50. If you trade this blindly I think you're going to win even less than 50% of your trades (because of the spreads). It's not that easy. You need to spot the right market conditions as well
Love the video Trading Rush! Since the set ups don't happen that often as you mentioned in the video, has anyone successfully set up an alert indicator so you don't have to sit in front of the screen all day? any feedback would be awesome.
For those who wonder how many pips he made in this video based on the stop lost he set, and here is the result +922pips. I have watch all trades he made and calculated them all. He made 922 pips profit from 26th March to 19 November, with average of 92.2 pips per month.
This is the best trading video I have ever seen. I have wasted so much time on strategies and trying to use trend lines, but not anymore. Thanks so much. I feel more confident and relaxed trading now
what blows my mind is that strategy is secondary, most strategies work, you then apply the risk management to fit the strategy. that was an AHA moment for me.
