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The issue is that what is "normal" is dictated by what has typically happened in the past. Given that we've never seen this before... historically low interest rates combined with fairly low prices combined with a pandemic combined with "free" government money combined with a massive explosion in prices combined with incredibly fast increases in interest rates. Unfortunately, we are in uncharted territory so we have no idea what the market is going to do. The average person just trying to do the right thing for themselves and their family is flying blind and totally lost. We're really dying to get out of our rental and looking to buy, but I just can't pull the trigger with the current state of things. The last time I bought a home was in 2007... I'm not doing that again.
i agree. the spike in prices over 2020-2022 was mainly due to government manipulation of the market in a large multifaceted scale. we are seeing some effects of that fading away. but people only move every 5 years on average, so we won't see the effects of the free market all at once.
I can understand. I also first bought in 2005, and as I told my lender today, I hate to buy high and go through that again. His response, I get it but prices are not going to drop because it's simple supply and demand. He also closed on his home over a month ago. I have no choice but to buy, renting is not an option when rents are about equal to a mortgage payment.
I'm really curious what will happen. In Sacramento, our hottest time of the year for our housing market is March - May. So far, we're seeing a giant decrease in new listings YOY and very low supply.
How is that possible. You can’t sell a home that isn’t listed (or can you). Is it possible that transactions are so low and far between that agents are keeping homes in their pocket and becoming their own MLS, so to keep the buyer seller commissions?
I can't remember which viewer mentioned this but, it was to the effect of: In the late 2000s the housing market fluctuated up and down as it struggled to maintain the trend. Then it crashed as faults became evident..
Fed rate hikes have not hit the economy at full impact. The credit tightening cycle due to recent bank failures also has a lagging effect. The crash will not pick up steam until business failures and unemployment jump up.
@@toinengwyn3935 Those #'s are coming....Even though they say there has been "jobs created" #'s going up.....They are not taking in to account that those "created jobs" were only .."lost" due to covid......Unemployment is still creeping up....and Will Jump.....soon...
The Vegas market is pretty similar. The "bottom" was probably last November. Inventory is dropping fast, pending sales off because of a lack of inventory. Prices going up a bit in Sq Ft. The Luxury market (over $1M) gaining the most. Multi offerings returning to correctly priced properties. The middle price of the market hasn't really dropped much peak to peak but are going up.
Sellers are also buyers. Unless a seller is downsizing to a different location they will hand tight. Also, look at 2006-2008 data. After a big runup in 2006, prices corrected then went up. 2007 it was all down. The question is “where are we” in the 2006-2008 correction
I expect a lot of the buying demand has been driven by the CalHFA Dream Home program that was around for about 2 weeks and required buyers to be in contract. This next month I expect will show a drop. But that's just my thoughts.
Means people took their home off market. That’s a sub 3% rate that many sellers are sitting on. No incentive selling. Look at San Diego’s inventory. It’s almost the lowest it has ever been almost matching the Covid era inventory. The only way home price decline is when the market gets flooded. The only way this happens is jobs jobs jobs loses.
You know me- anything you make will be interesting and I will certainly watch it but I can’t speak for everyone else - I do think it’s a good idea to see Dallas and other major Texas metros
Jason, would you agree with this statement? The later in the year that inventory seasonally bottoms, the less of a chance the fall and winter seasons can bring a spike upwards in inventory. According to Redfin, San Diego has still not hit bottom. It's actually still sharply declining. Edit: Actually redfin has the entire USA inventory still declining.
Inventory normally bottoms out in Jan/Feb then peaks during the summer/early Fall. However, this year inventory on a national level is still going down which is highly unusual.
Can it be that transactions of off market properties are more common now as speculators have data mining capabilities to identify and approach potential sellers before they have listed their properties?
California put aside $500 Million for it's first time buyer assistance program and the program just went online a few weeks ago. The state is loaning the 20% down as a lean to get around the PMI payments. It was expected to last a few months but the funds ran out in 10 days. I wonder if this program is the reason for the inverted numbers we are seeing.
I was like great… they want to keep prices high and own part of the home. How about normal prices appropriate for incomes and letting someone own their home 100%. I get so annoyed that our government mismanages funds.
Alameda County and San Joaquin county are completely different even though they are neighboring counties. Alameda is like what you described while San Joaquin inventory is growing like crazy this month and has been growing year to date. The housing market looks so localized more than ever
In Tampa the market was declining slowly but steadily from June 2022 until March 2023. Inventory was rising, demand was stagnant, and prices were going down. Then March hit and instantly a third of the inventory went under contract. Most of these are slated to close in May right as school gets out. The question is, is this just a seasonal spike or is the market back in full pre June 2022 levels? I have seen demand go down in April as homes are sitting but not alot of new inventory is coming on market. Will that change when school gets out in June?
Normally homebuyer demand rises in the spring and then decreases in the summer. How long does it take people to take ownership of homes there after offer acceptance? In CA, it's about 25-30 days but it can be less.
This Jan, Feb and March have been weaker than the same months in 2021 and 2022. Jan, Feb and March 2023 are stronger than the previous 6 months, due to seasonality. Prices may likely go up some over the next 4 months. But that will still be weaker than the same months in 2020, 2021 and 2023. And all the gains will be reversed and more over the next fall and winter. My point is, we are still in a housing downturn and will be for the next 3 years. The seasonal price increases will be smaller and the seasonal price decreases will be larger, leading to multi year price declines for at least 3 years.
Sac has always been high since those Bay Area folks came and ruined everything. Higher prices more homelessness and since Sac was #1 place to live in CA according Forbes more people are coming and it sucks.
it’s really strange, I make 135k a year and can’t afford a normal house in Los Angeles unless prices go down or interest rates go below 4, who are these buyers?
If you're a homeowner and sitting tight, you're sitting pretty. If you want to own a home and don't, you are SOL. That's basically the story for the foreseeable future. Maybe if the economy completely tanks things will change, but unemployment will have to skyrocket and that takes time. Those renting better be prepared to continue for quite some time.
Yes as it stands now, the market is going up. Something big would have to change in order to reverse that trend but having said that rates have increased to 6.75% today.
Sac upticked because everyone is fleeing SF and the Bay Area. It's all Bay Area people moving into the Sac region. This isn't complicated. The uptick is temporary. When the stock market tanks the migration from the Bay Area will stop and may even reverse.
@@david_lawrence_h2703 SPX is only down 12% from it's high and so is real estate on average. Wait til May, June, July, Aug when the 💩 really hits the fan and markets drop -50% from here. Then come talk to me. 😉
About 67% of homeowners have rates at or below 4% and given current rates are much higher they are choosing to not sell their homes. This has been happening for months which is causing inventory be at historically low levels and sellers are getting multiple offers because of this.
Another guy banking on layoffs so the market will be flooded with foreclosures🤣🤣..You people been saying this ever since Jason only had like 10 subscribers🤣🤣.Good luck!
He's been spot on in my are of AZ. I sold at the peak and I've been renting since July of last year. The price of homes I've been looking for have dropped at least 8x that of my yearly rent. I work in multiple industries- all of which are vital to our infrastructure and down by quite a bit. History has a tendency to repeat itself. I depend on people like you to keep your head in the sand. Weak men create weak times. Later.
@@kirkkirkham7538 Well you’re in AZ that’s why!Which market is Jason talking about?Sacramento, CA.!You’re commenting like our state will be laying off people like a hurricane hits Florida.Then foreclosures will flood the market here.Sure buddy!🤣🤣
Inventory will always gonna be low. More babies being born than house being build in a day. Houses is more demand than ever. Have you ever seen a snail without a shell?
This is why you need to vote against those in power right now. They let this happen. Gavin Newsom even made the situation worse with the Dream For All. This is absurd
Low inventory, low demand, prices are kind of flat. Demand probably won’t go up much with interest rates the way they are. What could cause inventory to skyrocket?
You have had more than one headline of "California Implodes" recently yet February has shown many places in California among the country's strongest markets with prices up 16% year over year. My own vales have risen three months in a row here in Washington state. I know you say you only "report" trends as you are doing today again, but when your headlines from just a recent post are so misleading, your credibility is hurt. Try a more reasonable strategy.
I'm guessing your referring to the video (link below) in which I shared that ~90% of all counties in CA that CAR tracks have now reported a decrease in the median sold price compared to a year ago. In that video, I also share some other alarming trends (much of them are lagging indicators = what our market was like in Dec and Jan when the buyer's offer was accepted). In today's video, I share leading indicators of demand (# offers received for all pendings in Sac County for example).
