India’s population leap: 5 takeaways, why China is in a sulk, & why growing numbers needn’t be scary 

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My favorite line about India “India has disappointed both optimists and pessimists same time”

Having a big population is not important.Having a population who can self support themselves and their family is more important since that will add value to the society and economy as a whole.Having more population which thrives on subsidy and govt support will just add to numbers and not to the economy and GDP of the country.

What Chinese spokesperson said about quality of population I feel he meant that the education, health and skills level of an average Chinese is better than an average Indian. I don’t think we can argue with that reality as the HR quality of two countries is readily available.

China is correct. The quality of their workers is definitely improving, which will propel economic growth, despite a decline in sheer numbers.

Internal migration is already on. My district is in Andhra and its a dry one. Even here, i am started seeing people from Bihar and UP. They are here for permanent settlement.

One negative side of the population growth in India which you haven't referred to is that low per capita income of India, inspite of growing economy. We are still behind even smaller European countries such as Georgia or Moldavia.

india has a labor force participation rate of 40. china 70. having more people doesn't mean anything if they are not productive.

Classic India: "DONT WORRY"

"Politicians have a lot of time when they are out of power" .. 😂 legend..

Old age homes are already in full swing in Kerala since late 90s.

*QUALITY>>>QUANTITY* whether you like it or not.

If the comment by the Chinese minister is looked objectively rather than from a racial context - what he is implying is that only the size of the population doesn’t matter, but how that population is able to contribute to the nation is what matters. In the context of this video as well - the population of all current emerging economies will start to reduce going forward, means the dependence on efficiency of numbers rather than the numbers itself will begin to matter. This means the focus in India has to be on how we can take the population dividend and give it the right opportunities so that it has a multiplier effect - big population, efficiently deployed-> strides in growth. So I completely disagree with Shekhar and the team that the remarks from the Chinese should be dismissed as purely racially motivated.

Shekhar-ji, population-growth is always scary for India being extremely overpopulated. Irony is poor-states has high-birth rate while politicians are busy in caste/religion politics. Indian fertility-rate may fall faster in coming decades due to: 1. High-cost of living, education, 2. More women joining workforce, 3. Water-scarcity, climate issues, 4. Preference for alternate-lifestyles.

China is not sulking. Just look at its achievements on military and economic front.

Population must be properly managed by citizen , government ,media ,un, international organisation ,civil society, private and public body, companies, corporations, religious leaders.....in holistic and real way..to achieve global goals of development.....❤❤👍👍

India - 2100 - 109 crores. Depending on the community that becomes a majority by that time, it's hard to say whether India will remain India then.

Don't know about why people produce like rabbits. But in my village near Noida, a particular community vowed to produce more because Yogi defeated akhilesh in elections.

I love what Rudyard from Whatifalthist says: 'India is always the exception to every rule'

Still not something to be proud of . The large population has been a major hindrance to India’s progress

I’m pretty sure that the CCP think that Han Chinese count twice compared to all varieties of Indian.

Sekhar ji's cover fire for our muslim brothers hum do hamare 20. Highly appreciated. 👏

I think a follow up detailed episode - which talks about how India can leverage its young workforce effectively - is due! Pak and Nigeria are two great examples of what happens when the policies do not keep up with population growth! Second, there is a good possibility that Indians might serve as viable replacement in countries like South Korea, Baltic nations and dozen others which are suffering from a dire shortage of the necessary workforce to support their economies - and such migrations can drastically skew these projections.

Nigeria's TFR has already come down to 5 and declining fast. New UN projections for Nigeria are more conservative than Lancet Study of '19. Their max appears to be 45-50 crore at max.

Big Population - Big Problems If Not Handled Well. 😕

Great report, as always. One small error - Shekhar refers repeatedly to UNPD, while he probably means to refer to UNDP (United Nations Development Program). Apparently there is actually a UNPD - this is the UN Procurement Division.

What about the growth rate of muslims?

Growing population is never a challenge in India, the real challenge is high density of population living in a very small area mainly in and around big cities.

Sorry Shekhar, I am rather irked by your assessment of "quality of population" remark of Chinese representative. They may well have not so great quality of population due to their repressive policies but we are no better either and frankly, we are deteriorating much faster than any other "quality of population" considering the social changes unleashed we see around us these days.

Excellent exposition on this topic. Can't say enough good things about The Print. May be I do have some quibbles about Jyoti Malhotra -- but the rest of The Print more than makes up in maintaining the high standards.

I went to college with a lot of Nigerians in the Boston area. Most of them are still in the US.. primarily in the medical or biotech industries today as Physicians, Scientists, Nurses and Technicians. A few did go back to Nigeria to practice there. The ones still in the US moved to other parts of the country, own nice houses and have raised kids that are now top students while also playing competitive high school sports. My sense is that they are probably one of the most successful groups migrating to the US from Africa.

Very interesting. However, if future projections of countries' populations are based on the current rate, the situation can be different. TFR could keep changing based on various factors, including education, economic necessities, etc.

It's hillarious when I hear people talking about 2100 and the population levels then when we are not even sure what will happen by 2060 with the climate havoc we are facing.

We are only talking numbers and compare ourselves with China only when convenient. The quality of life, infrastructure, health services, education which China is giving to its Citizens is something India can't even think of . Simply numbers are not enough. We should have the means to make productive use of the numbers. China's politicians and thinkers are trying to get a status ahead of the most developed nations. Our ruling party is busy rewriting history and people are happily following. Its obvious that ,even respected news outlets like Print are of late treading very carefully and very guarded on what they write or say.

Hi Mr. Gupta i Have seen your reporting getting evolved over the years and now i find it more balanced, factual and devoid of any bias towards neither the left nor right....keep going

Only a Census can give us an exact idea. Unfortunately this government has been SO reluctant to conduct it! Census won't happen till 2024

‘ Nasbandi ‘ initiative by late Sanjay Gandhi during emergency was the correct and proper way to reduce India’s population by now .

Thank you for this episode.

If we are not doing census, how are we confirming all these numbers? Our last census was 2011?

It's fascinating to note that humankind started with (and in) Africa, it will end there as well since in 100 years, most of the youngsters will be found only there!

I'm sure the racists at NYT are gonna have a field day with this story and miss all the nuance Shekhar points out.

Indians are confident of handling population growth under democracy but signals in governence are doubtful and trust deficit of all institutions parliament, judiciary, executive and media. aha ram!

When will the National census be conducted?

Sekhar Gupta Ji, you are awesome. Your presentations are always UNCLUTTERED. THANK YOU.

Shekar, r u going to discuss abt satyapal malik's interview, or do u think it isn't substantial

I think we need to also focus on the indian states whose tfr is significantly lower than the replacement level. The population crunch is one of the biggest risks to human society. In india we need to discuss this so that the govt can introduce a good policy. In my opinion tfr in no case should fall below replacement level.

The most shocking difference is between West Bengal and Bihar one at 1.6 and other at 3.1 respectively, West Bengal government have to shut primary schools due to lack of Students nearly 10,000 schools were shut due very low number of students enrolled on and an average of 3.1 students per class or 25 students in each school, Many might say this due to private schools but there is a serious crisis brewing in these low fertility states. By the Way Lancet report have a problem it has not included the absurd high TFR and sudden rise of TFR of the MENA region in respect to the Income distribution, we can also add AF-PAK region excluding the Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran region in the same dilemma.

Wow, the opening statement regarding that Chinese official shows that Shri Shekhar Gupta is absolutely naive regarding the CCP.

China is right ..quality is as important as quantity .

It's hard to believe that population growth will also increase per capita income, china still has the option to import labour or outsource just like the developed countries

I disagree with SG. As much as he try to sugarcoat it, India's population is a liability. Chinese FM's comment is neither racist nor wrong. Their quality of population is great and productive, unlike ours. Population collapse is only way India can move forward.

During 2000s there was a saying among so called intelluctual and economist while comparing India and China....India has democracy and demography...Now China is far far ahead of India. Democracy loose Autocracy WINS!!

Demographic dividend can become a 'demographic nightmare' as the unemployment rate in India is at an all time high, and women participation in labor is in decline! India cannot take advantage of this workforce if the Modi government continues to fail even providing Modi's infamous 'pakoda employment'?

It's also the 'amrit kaal' of india where record number of us are giving up their passports for foreign ones. And not a single independent journalist left in mainstream media. Population ka achar daltey hain aur dharm ka affem latey hain.

Really good analysis as always; just a small remark, dependency ratios are never negative. They are either less than 1 (somewhat positive scenario) or more than 1 (somewhat troubling scenario).

Just 1 issue:- 'peaceful' are producing too much ...

Population, if not utilized properly will be a liability not asset. Indian population surely will be a huge liability.

India has clearly invested in women. Educated and independent women will mostly be career oriented and picky when chosing life partners. It clearly has helped us flaten the curve.

Dear Shekhar, please don't use percentage with TFR. It a number and not percent.

Very good point you brought up before 1:43

The problem of feeding mouths is a peril of the past. What's the issue today is that the young demographic in the states of central India, which unfortunately has a high TFR rate, are unskilled. The quality of education is subpar with fake colleges churning out graduates with fake degrees. China is indeed staring at a bleak future demographically, but that means that there's going to be a brain drain from India to China since countries like America are becoming unappealing with less safety and third-rate politics. I think it's better to focus on manufacturing in unskilled areas and service in cities.

Never underestimate China in making silly and brutal policies. In a state of panic they can come up with shocking policies. Example: If some1 wants a government job, they should have minimum 3 children.

Let us be honest, no country is jealous of India having so many people. Don't think it is a good thing. Let us not be so delusional. Imagine India increasing it's per capita by 5 times. It will mean 5 times the resource consumption. This will deplete our natural resources even further. Combine that with 17 crore more people (10 Delhis). Imagine the pressure on resources.

Quality of decision making by the great hall was tested as poor when the policy was changed from one child to two child to three child policy in matter of few years; having said that, India has to train its population as a force for good for the nation and the world

This high fertility in India is being seen in Canada everyday. Huge number of young persons are emigrating to low fertility nations like Canada either on PR visas or student visas.

Here China can take cue from Pakistan...shut down electricty by 7 pm😂😂😂

is it possible you to predict the scenario with US, if India adopt same like immigration policy

So insightful! Thank you SG

I am curious to know whether these estimates include the external migration, a population decline can cause. Once a country develops enough, I think it can start to attract talent and labour from the then labour exporters of the world, just like how India and china has been doing to US and european countries for a while now.

Shekhar sir is it acceptable that this Govt hasn't conducted general census over this decade.?

I just don't get the hype of so called demographic dividend. China reached the replacement levels in late 1980s and it's economy literally continued on 10 percent growth path for next 20 years more. All due to globalization which was at its peak, trade was booming. It was the high time of optimism that finally developing countries can become rich and catch up. Now, the time is totally marked by geopolitical differences, protectionism is on rise, technology is not anything to be shared. Just think of the complexity of countries like Bangladesh, india and other countries whereby the new path is fraught with lot of fragility. All the future industries are dominated by few industrialised countries. China dominates the green tech revolution, US dominates semiconductors etc. It's not the time whereby countries have the patience to become sweatshops for products of developed countries. I mean China literally gobbled up the whole manufacturing which could have provided the respite to poor countries to earn valuable dollars. All the shit talking about decoupling is basically Chinese moving up the value chain and are literally on par with US and Japan, Korea and europe on many key technologies. All they r doing is leaving their assembly operations to other countries without giving them the chance to add value to the assembled products. In the age of AI, potentially so called demographic dividend remains to be seen. India shall always remain with a thriving 100 millions working on great projects and living comfortable lifestyle while the others struggling to meet their ends meet. The rise of East Asian economies was not just the leadership but also the most favourable external factors giving them the chance to truly do MIRACLES. It was the 2008 crisis that brought developed world to their senses of leaving manufacturing sector when the economic stress bite them hard with dissatisfied working class and lots of social problems. My guess is China could be the only last major country which would make successful transition from third world to a high income status. Or maybe Vietnam if it play its cards well.

Why don't UP Bihar demand separate country ? We should gladly give them one.

Well said SG! Population dynamics matter! Population density matters too! Urban centre have higher population densities than rural areas, so resource distribution becomes unequal! This has to be prevented! A Gandhian approach needs to be implemented! Also, more budgetary investment is needed on women- reproductive health, public health, maternal care, neo-natal care, childcare, entry of women into workforce!

I welcome all UPites and Biharis. They are fellow Indians and brothers. Their children study the local language even though they themselves can't.

"Quality' means their employability - their work skill - their workdays - their sincerity in work etc

Hi sir, Thank you for this great episode. It was quite succinctly done, and it hit all the headlines and highlighted the opportunities as well as the threats that India faces. You mentioned some states that have seen a decline in TFR, including my own state of Punjab. You further mentioned that we might need to explore the option of old age homes soon. This is quite an interesting point, because we Indians take pride in taking care of our parents and other elders and find this "Western" concept of old age homes repugnant and revolting. However, this may very well be the state of affairs we may be heading to. How that will affect our mindsets, morality and family structure will be fascinating. This concept is even more relevant and applicable to Punjab. Now, admittedly, I may be living in a bubble here, but it seems to me that everyone who is able to is moving abroad here, either to Canada or to Australia. I have seen entire colonies filled with "empty" homes having just the old couple living their as both their young children have shifted abroad. Now, this is not happening in Punjab because we don't have young children. It's because we are sending all our young children abroad in search of a better life and for jobs. This is where lack of any modern city (like Hyderabad, Pune, Bangalore, Ahmedabad, Mumbai) is hurting North India big time. Haryana has Gurgaon, UP has Noida, but Punjab has nothing. Mohali seems irrelevant and Chandigarh is already choked. We have no industry or MNCs either.

I am again against this idea of more population. If you just know the basics of technical advancements of today, and continuous growth in technology, you will not value more population.

India’s population is a demographic disaster. We’re not skilling our youth, and most jobs are in the informal sector. This is a dubious distinction . We should be ashamed of ourselves as a country.

India should generate enough jobs to meet its increasing population. Only then can demographic dividend be fully realized.

Is it very unpopular & unsafe to make a cut the clutter on the allegations about Pulwama attack on Modi govt made by Satyapal Malik, ex Governor of J&K? It seems very easy to mock Rahul Gandhi, criticize previous govt policies. But such an important & cluttered issue is going under the RADAR of Shekhar Gupta is not very pleasant.

Building childcare infrastructure is also very important, if we want working women to have children. Most of my acquaintances have only one child.

Skill development - exporting labour - their remittances - improving manufacturing centers - these should be the concerns for India.

in these estimates is it possible for countries like Nigeria can support 79 crores people as historically they never reached such peak ?

WE ALWAYS COMPLAIN ABOUT INDIA GETTING PORTRAYED WITH 'POOR' IMAGES IN WESTERN MEDIA. THEN WHY DO WE SHOW ONLY THE FOOR FACE OF AFRICA WHENEVER WE TALK OF HER?? AFRICA TOO HAS RICH CITIES & MANY AFRICAN COUNTRIES HAVE PER CAPITA INCOME ABOVE OR ON PAR WITH INDIA'S.

Need 1 child policy also 0 for some peaceful community

Facts never changes Mr Gupta

Must consider stress on land rivers and forests

Over population is a concern nothing to be proud about it..

We broke the myth flattened the curve of population growth.eastern india had invested in education and health.

quality of population does matter.

Is the disproportionate fertility rate contribution to India’s population by Muslim’s a spot of sensitivity? I ask because I’ve seen this in other countries becoming political.

Why are your wearing 2 mics?

In Kerala the young generation is migrating in large number to Canada, Australia, UK, Germany etc .

“You cannot force people to have more babies “ sure you can. Just make the birth control options limited in the market. We are kidding ourselves if we think China is not ruthless enough to do that to their people.

I didn't have to hold my breath for guessing no 2, Nigeria is prrsent all over the internet

I think you are wrong. They can force people to have one child so can they force people to have more. As of now they have act yet. If do want to grow the population they will. It is not a democracy country so the party will have to decide what to do.

As much I love Sir's diction and story weaving on complex issues Here's a summary to get a read on India’s population leap: 5 takeaways, why China is in a sulk, & why growing numbers needn’t be scary This is an AI generated summary. There may be inaccuracies 00:00:00 - 00:20:00 The video analyzes the population growth in India and China and its impact on the countries politically and economically. India's population is expected to surpass China's, which is irking China as it struggles with an aging population and lack of young people in the workforce. India, on the other hand, has a relatively young population, presenting it with a demographic opportunity. However, India's population growth rate has declined heavily in the past two years, with many states above the national average, and some southern states experiencing population decline. The video presents five key takeaways from this data, emphasizing the need to invest in women and public health, and highlighting the benefits of automation to address the challenges created by a growing population. 00:00:00 In this section of the video, the speaker analyzes the population growth in India and China, and how it impacts the countries politically and economically. India's population is set to surpass China's, which would have caused despondency in India and satisfaction in China a few years ago. However, China is now seemingly irritated by India's population growth and worried about its own population decline. The dependency ratio in China is expected to turn negative in the coming decades due to a lack of young people in the workforce, while India's population is still relatively young. This presents India with a demographic opportunity while China struggles with an aging population. 00:05:00 In this section, the focus is on India's population growth rate, which has declined heavily in the past two years. The national Family Health survey of 2019-21 shows that India's overall population is now at replacement levels, meaning that the total fertility rate (the number of babies women produce within their reproductive age of 16-50) has fallen to 2 from 6 in 1951. Many states in India are above the national average, such as Bihar with a rate of 3.1. Meanwhile, in some southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, population decline has begun. Although India will still continue to produce young people, this will happen slowly, and even until 2100, India's dependency ratio will be quite robust, contrasting the negative dependency ratio that may occur in China in 30 years. 00:10:00 In this section, the speaker refers to a Landsat report which says that global population decline will be much faster than the UN Population Department predicts. They argue that India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) will come down to 1.24 by 2100, at which point India's population will have gone down to 109 crores. With this estimation, the Landsat report argues that India will become the most populous country in the world, while China will become the third most populous, behind Nigeria. The report further predicts that much of the population growth in the future will come from Africa, with many countries' populations growing due to high TFRs. 00:15:00 In this section, the video discusses the concerns of China regarding India's population growth and how a decline in global population will begin much faster than anticipated, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. The percentage of Africans in the global population will increase, leading to questions of political instability and climate change crisis. The five takeaways from this data include the fact that population growth is no longer a scary prospect, and a rapid decline in population is now more of a concern in many Indian states. The focus should now be on the quality of life, and efforts need to be made to flatten the peak of India's population growth. 00:20:00 In this section, the speaker presents five key takeaways regarding India's population growth. He predicts that the population will peak, but will flatten out earlier than anticipated, creating a need to invest in women and public health to keep the economy growing with an increase in older citizens. He also emphasizes the benefits of automation, citing that it would answer a lot of the problems created by a growing population. He also tells an anecdote about former Indian Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar to illustrate the point that as times change, so do reactions and responses. The speaker notes that the Chinese reaction to India's population growth speaks volumes about their mindset towards such issues.

60% of edible oil consumption of India is meet by import , 80% of crude oil consumption is meet by import and the list goes on. India first in population and seventh by land mass.

Thankyou 🎉

Huge unproductive, unpatriotic population Is liability but small population Of Israel, Singapore and Denmark With qualities, patriotism and great asset to Nation