Honestly, intel current products are horrible. AMD, ARM, TSMC, Nvidia are just eating their market share away for good reason: Might as well purchase a toaster instead of their cpus. I have over $320k in stocks. Currently, my portfolio is down by 15%. Wondering if they're any short term opportunities I can invest in.
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If you actually follow intel products. They got complacent cos they were the market leader for a long time. And now, customers' CPUs are blowing up, they refuse to offer refunds. Their strategy for the past years was marginal bump in performance, overcharge users on flagship premium. I'd say they need to compete on value products again and not rely on top-heavy line-ups for revenue. Until then, Intel is not a buy.
100% this. Writing was on the wall when amd overtook them and their flagship gpus which would be needed for ai still trail both nvidia and amd. Unfortunately leading performance would need to be ready now to be delivered in three years and that’s not the case so looks like another three years at least of lacklustre performance both from cpus and the stock price. Adding in unreliability and poor customer service is going to add more nails in their coffin.
Actually, their CPU offerings were strongest in the lower price regions for the recent years. They offered decent platform performance in the sub-300€ region for Mainboard+CPU combined. A market section that AMD has basically abandoned.
The actual problem is their flagship 13th and 14th gen are failing everywhere, deemed chip failure, first on game servers now many consumers having it. The biggest reason people buying Intel instead of the more powerful AMD, is their stability reputation.
Intel is too poor to do refunds! They are already depending on govt's bailouts just to stay afloat. That's practically begging for alms just to stay alive
Decades of bad business decisions. Underinvestment in R&D. Not holding process development responsible for producing results. Gilsinger is probably doing the right things, just a bit late.
I remember you shilled this stock a few years ago, everyone who listened to you lost money, as with most you tubers, meanwhile the snp grew by like 40 percent.
I learned a lesson on Intel, fortunately without losing money. You don't invest in technology sector, in business that are focused on shareholders rather than focusing on their products.
Intel has been a great learning experience for me. Thanks for the great insights Sven. I bought years ago and am still a bag holder. It has been worth the educational cost to me to be in this one. I do not plan on averaging down either at the moment. this position is a bit of a coffee can portfolio move for me at the moment. Excited to see what else I can learn from this one. I also Own TSMC, thankfully it has performed much better, but in reading these company reports I am no longer interested in picking individual stocks from this sector as I don't properly understand the technology they are manufacturing.
25 YEARS of nothing from this turd (!!) You should just take your lumps and find a real company that knows profits to invest in, this isn't even worth the brainspace to watch it fail some more.
I went through an interview and received an offer for work at Intel in their fab department in Portland about 6 months before covid. I ultimately turned it down because they wouldn't budge at all in their offering. Their offering was ridiculous and only guaranteed 36hrs/week on a 3-day/week rotation. The offer wasn't even enough to cover costs for an apartment. This led me to believe that they were hiring low esteem candidates, which meant I'd be working a lot while others barely got by. I've worked construction my whole life, and those jobs are always riddled with failure. I'm surprised it took this long.
Idk if you know about Intel may be facing multiple class action lawsuits because of their 13900K and 14900K degrading, Gamers Nexus has a recent video for info
It affects 30 skus out of 40 something just for the deskop processors. Laptop and servers are affected as well, but less common at their lower power levels and voltages. Over 65W 13th or 14th gen means over half of the desktop processors in the field. There have been microcode updates released to help, but it won't repair the damage already done from voltage or oxidation.
Just did a comment on that. Didn't saw this comment. It reminded me of the great Peter Lynch advice of buying only businesses you know about. Worse than individual stock picking is doing videos for the general public recomending to buy individual stocks, saying its a good point of entry and then "if fundamentals" are right, double down...
Intel is definitely a turn around story which takes good management to execute. There seems to be a lot of unfulfilled promises from current management. Too risky for me.
@@thegrumpydeveloper I don’t think they would want to be in a lower margin business. Maybe to diversify away from their dependence on TSMC but Intel are not even the second best fab now so probably won’t happen. Sven is right if you back out the 27b in goodwill it gives a book value of 90 where it is now.
I once went for an interview with Intel, suffice it to say I never got the job because I wasn't "smart" enough for them. I dodged a bullet now that I think about it.
Yeah, anyone thinking of investing DO NOT DO IT! I've studied semis for many years, they do not have competitive products and customers are fleeing them, this isn't a company you can just look at the PE ratio and think it's undervalued, because this is heading much lower. Do not try and catch this knife for the love of God.
You go woke...you go broke. I have few friends working there. They say how company just went 200% woke after 2018ish in name of culture change and work life balance. Employee happiness and diversity became top goals instead of project deadlines. They say that it is time to bring their legendary Fab leader Sohail Ahmed back to bring company back in shape. He was driven and goal oriented. Current leaders are just gutless softies and clueless.
Being Intel investor since 2020 I remember all hopes after new CEO assignment that in reality turned into such “free fall” of share price and the company performance…seems like departure time for Pat Gelsinger
Thank God I sold my shares a few months back. I bought it back then because it looked “cheap”, then I realised it was a shadow of a company it used to be. Goes to show never buy a company based on it looking “cheap”
Always like seeing those screenshots of how you correctly forecasted certain events :D What would be interesting though is hearing you talk about things that you were not right in and what you have learned from it. Would be a very informative video!
I sold a few months ago my position at a loss after a bit of research... I was waiting for the price to be too undervalued to be ignored. Well, after falling more than 30 % since then, I've starting slow DCA with a very small position. If it keeps being cheap or even goes more undervalued and nothing goes wrong I'll keep doing it... until it possibly goes up! I think as long as the position isn't too big the risk-reward doesn't look that bad even being a complex turnaround... But it's Intel also! Anyway, it seems I was right about selling (research and patience really go a long way!) and waiting and we'll se how it goes the next few years... Thanks!
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Sven, you mentioned the fundamentals of the company only briefly but realistically that is the most important part of the video. If we are to determine if this company is investable at this price, the businesses competitive moats are the most important influence. It's still 1 of only 3 companies in the world that manufactures chips, and it would definitely have the inside track to being the preferred choice in the United States and Europe. Everybody talks about the loss of market share, INTC still has a majority market share in most cases. Yes it has gone down, is it not possible to gain it back? Specifically if you're spending 100's of billions of dollars on cap ex? Pat Gelsinger put together a 5 year plan when he took over, this is year 3. Is there reason to believe the plan was a failure already?
You still trust gelsinger at this point?? He also said many things that were outright proven false. Like when he said he didn't expect gross margins to drop below low 50s% and look where they're at now. Also he said he wouldn't axe the dividend and now look what happened. The recovery trajectory isn't taking the shape he expected. Was the worst crash in the last 50 years ever in the plan?? Seriously can you still trust whatever hot air is coming out of this man at this point??
Thank you for all the good financial information. However, for anyone who understands CPU and technology, you will not buy Intel even at $10 - Pat Gelsinger took over CEO in 1Q2021 - Intel was already beaten by AMD in 2020, that's why Pat became new CEO, he was supposed to turn Intel around starting 2021. Now we are 3 and half years since then, it only got worse. Technology in CPU is not something can improve quickly even with billions of dollars. At this point, it will be very difficult for Intel to catch up. If you believe in Intel, then please read the quarterly update from Pat since 2021, you will then realize there's no turn around in 2025...
@@jamiesingleton7737really?? Was a worst crash in the past 50 years ever in the plan?? Or a dividend axe?? Or saying that gross margins wouldn't drop below 50%??? What else isn't the plan?? Perhaps a boot from the dow30??! Just keep pipe dreaming your way to 10 bucks or less. Keep telling everyone this is year 3 out of 5! Like all that matters when it is already way worse than the worst scenario that Pat himself ever envisioned. He thought playing catch up and leap-frogging everyone would get the buyers lining up again. WRONG! None of the big shots who used to buy their chips from intel has returned. Not apple. Not amazon. NOT A DAMN SOUL. Billions spent, unsold inventory piling up, and now what! You get the idea!
Guys lookat their products and what it took for their stock to go down. Investors dont understanding intels position. Things are going to get much worse. Even at 20 this isnt a buy. I will buy once i see leadership that can handle their issues.
Market cap. $86 billion. Tangible book value $73.4 billion (by Yahoo finance) So it is still not a value proposition. Also, the revenues continue to decline, and, their earning continue to decline. All the while being in a Chip sector which is booming.
Good video. So many people crying about INTC. If you own it like I do, just sell calls against the position. Reduce cost basis. My cost basis is zero now with all the calls I have sold over the years.
Imagine how much better you would feel if you had lowered your cost to zero on a stock that went UP 25% overnight. As a sidebar, it’s amazing that you could sell that many covered calls without ever having them assigned. You should play the lottery with that kind of luck.
@@iangantner6976 sell calls, roll with 21 days to DTE, get called out, sell puts, get assigned , sell calls, roll, get called out, sell puts...worked out great for me as a career for 20 years.
@@iangantner6976 Exactly. If the calls are short-dated, you get assigned on any spike. If they are long dated, then you essentially bear all the risk from the potential turnaround failure, while giving up all the upside if it succeeds. Completely twisted risk/reard: folks are just clueless.
Honestly, intel current products are horrible. AMD, ARM, TSMC, Nvidia are just eating their market share away for good reason: Might as well purchase a toaster instead of their cpus, it will be more efficient. Their current ceo is an idiot, he just ignore competition and still believe they are the best... what arrogance! This is a pass, i do not see any path back to growth and profitability in the next 3 years.
i've been fortunate to make a few profitable trades on intel the last few years. while i'm no longer a shareholder now, i did sell puts after the huge share price crash the other day! strictly a "buy it for less than what it's worth" type of play, but this video has given me concerns about becoming a shareholder in the future.... Mr. Gelsinger has dropped the ball with his vision multiple times now, as Sven points out so entertainingly! the part about where they burned through the equivalent of their market cap ($100B) in 5-6 years of capex spending is shocking! wow. but also reassuring to shareholders i'd imagine... the business can still print that kind of cash, apparently... let's hope intel turns it around this time
Intel has always been a cash burner, but they never actually turn that into anything for their shareholders, 25 YEARS of nothing, its time to let it go, there is no blood in this stone, only a trade opportunity, not a buy and hold.
I don’t think this title is appropriate. I guess what he means is what he says at the end of the video “it is the best time in the last decade to buy the stock”, which has nothing to do with Intel being “the best stock at whatever price”, which it obviously isn’t. Too complicated of a business anyway: automatic too hard pile for me.
You are reading it in a way he doesn't intend, the title says Intel is the best now at 20 as compared to before it fell. And that is almost certainly true. Also, their business really is not unusually complicated. If Intel is too hard then you basically have to throw away every technology-based company in existence.
@@theWebWizrdIndividual investors can decide what their ‘too hard’ pile looks like. Mine includes most tech companies, too. No need to chase every goose that might lay a golden egg.
@@theWebWizrd Putting money on Intel is gambling that Pat isn't lying about 18a, which is a huge stretch at this point. It's almost guaranteed that it won't yield well.
@@theWebWizrd The business of a Zombie company is pretty simple, grab the nearest Corrupt politician, and eat their bag of free money, while they rant about China or jobs. The best strategy is to keep your bag of money safely away from this company, and double tap any INTC, if you see it groaning in your brokerage statement. This company has not been consistently profitable in 25 YEARS, I doubt they even know what profits are, they only know how to eat government handouts.
25 year turnaround, there fixed it for you. Look at the chart, this thing hasn't been a winner since the old World Trade Center was standing, its the Cisco effect, this is a Zombie company, just eats government free money, and only produces losses and layoffs.
Thank U Sven. Your consistency is appreciated. It allows us to follow and learn over years. What a gift! Thanks 🙏 The more you share, the more we learn, the more we grow.
It is hard to buy Intel stock after looking at its income statement. Revenue and net income are constantly falling every year. Semiconductor business is on the right side of the cycle. All other semiconductor manufacturers are doing well except for Intel. Cant imagine how much Intel will perform worse when semiconductor business goes to the wrong side of the cycle.
At this point, they should allow filming within the headquarters site and turn it into a reality show just so they can generate some sort of net positive income. What else do they have to lose?
Intel is a value trap with a turnaround story for more than a decade that never happened. I don't know why people keep thinking it's going to beat the competitions and get back its leadership and it will be a 10 baggers.
Intel PE isnt on the 20's, it is actually currently over the 80's. If you use 2023 EPS you ll get a PE close to 20. But if you get the EPS of the trailing 12 months than the EPS are much lower making it a PE over 83.
@@Oon9z Of course that is a good question. My concern is that they continue to fail and then make similar promises again. Just think of Elon Musk as a manager versus intel management.
Intel is a company that HAD the biggest part of a duopoly that is declining in importance. Any company in control of hardware and software have switched to chips they design themselves. It missed the fabless trend. And now it’s on welfare.
They are cutting costs when they are far behind in the technological race. How will they catch up with their competitors if they don't invest? Intel seems in a trap where increasing or reducing CAPEX are equally bad stories.
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Yeah, I believe investing with a professional is the optimal approach, as it mitigates the risk of significant losses. Did you genuinely know her? I was under the impression that I was the sole beneficiary of her guidance through the challenges of trading.
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Hi Sven! Hope all is well. I recall you either cut them from your portfolio or you stopped covering/analyzing intel due to intel management lying about something in their accounting... You probably should of mentioned that here.
Its a Zombie company, yes, its interesting when it gets its legs cut off, but its still shuffling toward the free government money, so its really more of a 'look at the car wreck' situation, you wouldn't want to give them any of your money to eat...
I bought! INTC is a too big to fail company that is part of our national security. We have seen the issues outsourcing key things like antibiotics, masks etc during covid, and the trend is to bring things back home.. The China play on Taiwan is real, just a matter of when. INTC has the foundaries, AMD, NVDA etc do not, all outsource to TSMC. Foundaries and their equipment are very expensive, not to mention construction costs. Definetly executuon problems. Im going to give them some time. I may be wrong, but 25% seemed an overreaction.
That's the only realistic scenario, but Boeing is the same, and their stock has been going down forever, too. From the national security point of view, what's important is the location of the manufacturing facilities. Everything else is not important, like stock price going down or even if they go bankrupt. As long as the new owner keeps the manufacturing in the USA... So, I wouldn't invest my money only based on that...
Layoffs are bullish way of management saying they are concerned about margins. Cutting dividend is bullish for value investors because it says that the company can meaningfully invest its cashflow. The lay offs across the tech industry seem to be at least 25% short term hires and HR personnel.
I own a business, i know alot of business owners, many people are having a bad quarter but not a bad year. Investors are over reacting is my opinion and that just presented a good business thats finally on sale. Id say Buy it, it was at a 52 week low than fell 30 percent. If my jeans go on sale at fred meyers thats when i buy them.
There's gonna be some lawsuits coming from this 13th and 14th gen oxidation-based failures. I don't think that has yet been factored in from the drop last week.
First time investor here, I am thinking of buying some INTC stock as it is down heaps compared to a month ago. Any suggestions or things I should consider there? Thanks
As soon as I saw the Fraud video in 2023, I knew Intel was doing shenanigans, and I do not like shenanigans in my Management. Call me old fashion, but I like honest Management, much like Buffett
The biggest issue for me is that their products are absolute garbage. They refused to recall faulty processors, their microcode destroys chips and they are not catching AMD, let alone nvidia. They keep mentioning the next generation will be amazing, but it turns out that new products are even worse than the previous generation. XD
I bought Intel .. and I know that it's a gamble. I want Intel to come back...alder lake in mind I know if this will work out, it will only work out in the long run. AMD and Nvidia need competition.. or it will be a bad time for costumers.
Of course it is the best now, because it will go down much further. Intel price should be at lower single digit, there is no turning around for at least another 2-5 years
Few takes: - Intel stock discount -30% - they invested alot in new fabs - strategic company for US - can benefit of geo-political tensions - their revenue is 45% of their marketcap... huge - they have lots of assets - bad news, product issues - losing market share - Pat has no management experience - can go lower - missed promises
They could have acquired several countries with the amount of R&D and Capex spend they had. Warren Buffett would never have let them get close to outspending their D&A.
A part of me wants to open a LARGE position to set and forget until it gets better, an even bigger part of me wants to buy after they BK in any case, it's a no for me atm
Also fabs take 5 years to build and more to fill, of course it’s going to look like they’re spending into a hole. The fabs don’t put out until they’re fully operational. And Intel has been in the business of fabs longer than TSMC despite you talking about their history with it multiple times.
Intel is managed terribly a lot of the teams are dysfunctional internally with politics and various ethnic groups one against the other. It is a terrible work environment.
I really like your level headed analysis Sven. I have intc on my watchlist but with the current economic situation and what they are doing I'm still not buying. They just might get even cheaper and if not...who cares.
Sven is always promoting buying individual stocks because buying the SPY or QQQ is going to crash soon because the market is overvalued. But many individal stocks are crashing.
its all baked into the stock price. Do you honestly wait for good earnings, profit, no chip issues, increased revenue and -30% stock price, in order to buy? Its plausible that you'll get some bad news along that 30% discount. Today bad news, next week you may hear good news.
Let all management positions cut salaries 2% let all factory workers increase working hours 20% so that they can lower the prices of the current production. Laying off workers is stupid. You only lose experience and workpower. Cut back on new adventures. Choose one development direction for competition. And let management work full days and whole weeks no vacations and lazyness. Maximum commitment
@@diamondlion47 yeah I mean I don't think the rule is stupid but I also kinda agree the reaction is overblown if you look at the big picture. Also the data is just preliminary right now there could be a correction next month that makes everything seem fine. Sample size of 12 is decent but far from perfect
