Inventor and futurist talks his hopes for the advancement of AI and technology 

He's cutting it awfully close. He has aged very rapidly in the past few years. I kinda feel sorry for the guy, watching all this amazing stuff come true but probably not living to see it. He might get really lucky and make it to 90 or something, but most people who make it to 90 are much more robust at 76 than he is. AI will drastically accelerate drug discovery in medicine, but it will still be five years at least before we start seeing the results. Five years isn't so long for most of us, but Ray will be 81. And that's the first drugs. For the full impact of AI on healthcare to reveal itself will take at least a decade. Ray will be 86, which is exactly the life expectancy of a well-off white man who has already made it to 76. Damn. But who knows. We could get lucky with some breakthrough therapy. He plans to be frozen if he doesn't make it, but the science on that is still super sketch and the business side means that 1% of all the people who get frozen have a chance of the business surviving long enough for them to _stay_ frozen. Forget the mind-uploading tech. That's pure fantasy.

This universe/simulation, loves to k1ll the people who invent amazing things, just before they can see what big of an impact they made, for example the inventor of Coca Cola died before it went mainstream, or Van Gogh died before his paintings were taken seriously. This world is cruel.

J.S. Bach also died before people actually appreciated his music :(

@@EolosMusic Well hell, Mozart. People definitely appreciated his music when he was alive, but he died at 35 with an ungodly amount of stuff he never completed.

@@squamish4244 didn't the guy have a heart transplant? yeah not looking so good for him.

Yeah, it really made me think differently about the future, or what could be the future.

I read it my senior year of highschool, in 2007, and it did the same to me.

same here

Same, it gave me a lot of optimism about the future. His predictions are still on track.

That’s awesome, happy to have read this

and you could just take vitamins you lacked lol

That is just wholesome bro

@@szymonbaranowski8184 vitamins cure depression? wow youre a genius

Technology is the main thing im optimistic about

I think about this constantly as everyone describes artificial intelligence solely based upon intellectual achievements yet true intelligence requires a heart focused in the correct direction. Technological advancements created without the benefit of all life and universal natural order is not advanced in my opinion. This is one subject I'm truly willing to hope my pessimism proves me otherwise as whenever humans tend to do whatever we want because we can, we get humbled time and time again.

Everyone. Literacy, life expectancy, people's revenue, access to technology has been increasing worldwide. While starvation, infant mortality, gender inequality, wealth inequality has been decreasing worldwide.

uh...everyone? not everything is a conspiracy out to get you. innovation has greatly improved the well-being of those alive today.

For those that have nothing to lose in the first place as technology advancement always does, lifting people from powerty

This is the part I worry about. In this race to AGI, I don’t really hear many people talking about the socioeconomic implications. When human labor no longer has a dollar value, what becomes of our economy in its existing format? Even right leaning people will need to Contend with the idea that we will need some kind of wealth redistribution when nearly all of the wealth is being generated by super intelligence, not people working for a wage

Well his name does kinda match the Kurzweil synths but what that synth pioneered was not analog we'd had for decades. He's invented a lot and been in and around pioneering work all his life. He just never has any ego to remind people about this. His work in speech synthesis and even in recent years working at Google. He's the guy behind the giant map of everything Google would use to relate everything in language to everything else. I could put cat wearing a red hat into Google search many years ago and get pictures that matched that. Without any of those pictures having the title of the image explaining it. All that early work was Ray's work on very early pre LLM A.I.

Their keyboard came out in 1983 by that time Roland was already releasing all their classics. Not to mention there were loads of records before then with the Moog.

Don't forget Leon Theremin ;)

@@ClayMann right. I think they meant to say speech synthesis in that part of the report, though pinning that down to one specific person is difficult. Either way, there’s no questioning Ray had a huge hand in pioneering that technology

@@EchoMountain47 aha i found where they got the quote wrong. Ray created the first omni-font, optical character-recognition software, the first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind, the first CCD flat-bed scanner, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, the first music synthesizer capable of recreating the sounds of a grand piano

well that should tell you something about the future of fusion

@@davehasenford3985 Why, is he related to Nostradamus?

@@davehasenford3985No because he’s not an expert on fusion and neither are you.

Thought the same about fusion. I think that’s one area where Ray could tweak his predictions. We’re already developing small fusion plants and it’ll likely become viable for large scale use in a decade or less

@@mikezooperyou don’t need to be a fusion expert to read the available research and see where it’s headed

It's distracting

I don't trust supposedly 'smart' guys who don't know how ridiculous they look in those.

@@4seeableTV he dont

I actually didn’t know until now, it looks good

That's his real hair. Some men that old retain it.

Not decades, but I agree, a new architecture is needed for AGI to truly emerge. It will not be a LLM that becomes AGI.

We will never reach AGI. It’s a scam to get investment.

Probably right on that one. The longevity experience will go to those privileged individuals who can afford it. Reminds me of Montgomery Burns (on the Simpsons cartoon show) where he ends up running around in the far future with his brain in a robot body. And as I recall Smithers shows up as a robot dog in the same scene to continue on as his personal assistant.

It will go so fast, that unless you are 80 right now, it will come to you too. That's assuming technological advancement will be real, and that "longevity escape velocity" will be real. I think both will occur, though i think his prediction is 1 decade too soon, meaning you will need to be 60 or below to make it.

Smart people like ray respect Elon.. 😉😂

@@frank254100 Actually-intelligent people recognize that Musk is a reprehensible dolt.

He is an idiot in many areas, but he is no fool in his department. I'm pretty confident that Elon does not believe in his own predictions, but it's more of a publicity stunt. In that way, he should indeed not quote him, but who cares. It will occur, though likely not at the timeframe he has envisioned.

I'm indifferent to him but a lot of his predictions have been hype and have been off by a couple of years and some haven't materialized at all.

just don't use any plastic or chemicals lol

That's his real hair.

Considering how most of the hyped ML models have plateaued I don't think he'll even be around to see AGI.

@@_DRMR_ Have you seen Claude Sonnet 3.5 though..its pretty dang amazing. I cant even imagine when Opus 3.5 comes out.

Wait for 2029 to see if the prophecy will occur.

a lot is wrong these news pieces for big networks. He isn't claiming we'll merge with machines in 2030 in the singularity. He's saying that by 2030 machines will be smart enough and fast enough that they can create their own code to improve themselves and rather than take years to do that like we do. It will happen in near real-time. That's the singularity. Us merging with machines happens way later, 2040's i believe by his prediction. And the synth he did invent and pioneer is the Kurzweil synth. Its kind of in his name but it was based on sampling technology way before that was a thing. I'm not a musician but you can google it and see. Moog can rest in peace, he's not getting his legacy taken from him.

@@ClayMann He invented "a" synthesizer, not "the" synthesizer.

@@_DRMR_ well if you want to pick that hard, no one invented THE synthesizer. Some pioneers took equipment used for measuring various things in labs. Science equipment and went at it making it musical. Wendy Carlos is one name that springs to mind but I don't exactly know who started abusing science equipment for music. So the invention was not synth, that was what other inventions were re-purposed for and then later people started to put that same equipment inside boxes more tuned for music. So who invented the first synth? no one. Who used electronic equipment to make music first? That's the question you'd ask. It certainly was not any company. It was a bunch of single musicians who had access to electronic equipment and heard test tones and their brain thought, i want to play with that! Kurzweil invented a technology for synths and put it into a keyboard. So he did actually invent a synthesizer. Name any classic analog synth and you can never claim it invented anything unless you want to count a new kind of filter as an invention. I don't think you can because they were all refinements of lab equipment that already existed. They were re-packing electronics already long figured out by scientists for purposes not connected to music at all. I can state that Yamaha invented FM synthesis in a keyboard. But there aren't many if any inventions I can think of in analog synthesis that could count as inventions. So bottom line, there is no THE synthesizer as an invention. There are first examples of synths as modular eqiupment and first examples of synths as standalone keyboards but even there it gets weird because organs, church equipment. They were doing synth like things long before any keyboards we think of today.

😂

we are actually

That's his real hair and you're an AH.

scientists often get insane in old age he may be another example

not smart at all, he just makes generators of generic things like stupid AI does

AGI next week.

Jup. In the context of AI and technological progress as a whole ,it refers to an exponential accalaration in development, leading to a point, in a Not to Distant future, where noone knows what technoligical possibilities lie beyond. Therefor: technological singularity.

you like him for point where he is wrong, that's funny 🤣

it seems not 99% of people of they shop regular toxic things in regular shops with 99% things being toxic there

I love icecream of alien planets too, also I wanna sing inside the womb of a bathroom made of chocolate

Pulled straight from Buddhism or Vedanta Hinduism.

It means that we probably overvalue death but it’s not necessarily the end as long as you keep the information.

@@le5.24 Small comfort for the one who pops his clogs.

he helped break music...

And unprecedented massive long term or permanent unemployment. And spare me with the "UBI" bull.

@@aisle_of_view Then get ready to have large savings ready.

Ray refers to raw compute. How much can a machine think and at what speed. He's predicted the speed of computers accurately since he was a young man. So with that prediction alone. He says himself. He just thinks through how much compute do you need to reach a point you can have a computer in your pocket you can talk to or even further out, one that thinks as well as you do and then one that thinks better than you in all ways. What Ray didn't imagine way back then was that large language models would get so good by basically cheating. They don't use the speed of the computer to do what they do. They use that speed to train data that gives it so much more over weeks and months. But Ray is essentially saying about 2030 we'll have machines that have the same complexity we do in our brains to think. Even the fastest super computers are still a small fraction of what one single brain manages.

Intelligence is pretty well defined, it's the ability to acquire and apply knowledge and skills in order to solve a problem. What is merkier when it comes to definitions is things such as consciousness.

That sounds like it might hurt. There was a Twilight Zone episode a long time ago where every time this guy walked in a room with a book, all the information in the book would upload to his mind. In one scene, he accidentally walked into a whole library, and it nearly killed him.

Its already in the works, its called 3D Bio-printing

@@businessenglishcoach3541They should design an "advanced kidney" that can perform more than a kidney such as detecting early health issue but we still have to wait until they have a basic practical working product.

those are the real AI breakthoughs in 2024, not ChatGPT

he is just early AI person

The two aren't mutually exclusive.

@@jmarriott5666 Well no, but there is no escaping death, unless we somehow escape the heat death of the universe.

@@squamish4244 You're assuming a lot with your wetware 😜

@@jmarriott5666 Well... no. I'm assuming that we can't escape the heat death of the universe, which is not a big assumption, if it is one at all. How do we do that, exactly? That is, if we even make it to LEV and don't die at 70-90 years old like everyone else is doing all around us, all the time, right now. I'm preparing for both the possibility of a centuries-long life, and an average-long life, because we don't know.

That's exactly why we're smarter now. Or at least those of us who choose the resources at our disposal.

Imagine people from a time before electricity trying to figure out how to living in our society. They wouldn't know what the hell is going on.

It's just a matter of priorities. Give an Iphone to a person in 1910. They would not know wtf to do with it, and maybe even burn the device. As we have become more dependent on technology, there is information that has been disregarded as generations have lived and gone. Would you know how to hunt a deer with a spear? Likely not. Does it matter? NO!

look at politics and think again

@@szymonbaranowski8184 Politics was no better back in the day.

Wtf are you trying to say?

@@murrmurr765 my personal predictions and previews about AI. Human skill and activity was taken over and transformed by machines, Machines by computer and other technology and inventions, The human transformed from animal to natural to rational then that's so much and so much now that man is robust like. Along with the change in the human nature the life on earth also changed. It is now coming under the control of virtual and augmented reality and it is not merely a fictitious argument.

@@murrmurr765 if 'Wtf are you trying.....'stands for some anomalous thought about my post, It is part of contrite of mind. I apologize to you if my comment caused some inflammation in you. I have had shared my personal opinion only.

exactly! one sane voice here

No one is going to force you too..if it even comes to pass

@@slymejyme4293 You sure about that? What if it is done without a person's consent? Or even if it isn't, would you really die to remain fully human? I guess some will, but ultimately, when facing death, I think most would merge if it meant continued survival, especially if it is at a higher level.

Hahaha I'm kinda disappointed you didn't continue on about those suspenders lol.

OK DOOMER!!!😂😂😂